Tag Archives: John Curtis

Alaska’s Begich Joins House Race; Congressional Map Redraw Ordered in NY; Qualifying Candidates in UT-2;
A New NH Gubernatorial Candidate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 17, 2023

House

Nick Begich III

Alaska: Begich Announces for House — Nick Begich III, who ran in the special at-large congressional election after Rep. Don Young (R) suddenly passed away, and then again in the 2022 general election announced that he will return to run again next year. He hopes for the opportunity of facing Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) one-on-one in the final Ranked Choice Voting round.

Both in the special and regular elections, Begich failed to reach second place, finishing third behind former Gov. Sarah Palin by three percentage points in each contest, while Peltola, coalescing the smaller Democratic base, was able to place first. For Begich to get the chance of facing Rep. Peltola in the final Ranked Choice round in 2024, the three finalists coming from the primary must hold the Congresswoman to less than a majority.

Though the Republican vote is much larger than the Democratic segment in Alaska, the GOP split has allowed Peltola to win the seat by attracting more second and third choice votes than did Palin. Begich will need a more united Republican Party behind him if he is to overcome Rep. Peltola. The AK-AL seat is the most Republican seat in the nation that sends a Democrat to the House. For the Republicans to hold their small House majority, the Alaska seat is fast becoming a must-win for them.

New York: Court Orders Cong Map Redraw — A lower appellate court last week sided with the Democratic lawsuit challenging New York’s court-drawn congressional map and ordered the Independent Redistricting Commission to begin a new re-mapping process. Republicans will then appeal to the state’s highest court, the New York Court of Appeals, which is the panel that made the original ruling that led to the creation of the current map.

Republicans gained seats on the current map; hence, the reason why Democrats are moving to replace the plan. It appears a final decision about whether we will see a new map for 2024 is undoubtedly months away.

UT-2: Two Candidates Qualify — The Utah Secretary of State announced late last week that the two special election congressional candidates who filed petitions to earn a ballot position have both officially qualified. Former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough both successfully submitted at least 7,000 petition signatures.

The pair will now join congressional legal counsel Celeste Maloy in a Sept. 5 special Republican primary election. Maloy prevailed in the pre-primary party convention. Doing so gave her an automatic ballot slot in the nomination campaign along with the official Republican Party endorsement. The last time Utah hosted a special election – 2017 in the 3rd Congressional District – the eventual primary winner, then-Provo Mayor John Curtis, did not win the convention. Therefore, it appears we may see a free-for-all campaign for the party nomination. The winner will face state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights) in the Nov. 21 special general election. The Republican nominee will be favored in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23. Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) is resigning the seat on Sept. 15 due to family considerations.

Governor

New Hampshire: Manchester Mayor to Run Statewide — Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), who already announced that she will not seek re-election to her current position but gave broad hints that she would enter the 2024 governor’s campaign, formally announced her intention to run statewide late last week.

With Gov. Chris Sununu (R) sending clear signals that he is unlikely to run for a fifth two-year term, it is very likely that Craig will be competing for an open seat. There will be a Democratic primary, however. Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington announced her gubernatorial campaign in early June.

The Executive Council, unique to New Hampshire, is an elected five-member panel from districts to serve as a check on gubernatorial power. A majority of the Executive Council can veto state contracts and nominations. The Council also has the power to issue pardons. Because Gov. Sununu says he will make a formal decision about whether to run again later this summer, no Republicans have yet come forward as potential gubernatorial candidates.

Moore Under Attack; Goodlatte #34

Judge Roy Moore, the Republican nominee in a special Senate election in Alabama.

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 13, 2017 — Controversy is erupting in the Alabama special US Senate election as we begin to enter the last month of campaigning before the Dec. 12 vote.

The Washington Post broke a story late last week (above) that accuses former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) of engaging in sexual contact with a 14-year old girl 38 years ago. At the time, Judge Moore would have been 32 years of age. The judge vehemently denies the charges and strikes back against the Post saying the story is politically motivated. Republican officials in Alabama are generally still supportive of Moore. Washington Republicans, who made public statements, expressed the opinion that Moore should step away from the race if the allegations are true.

In actuality, there is no legal way to remove Moore’s name from the ballot even if there is Republican unanimity to do so. Ballots are printed, some absentee packets have already been mailed to voters, and the law specifically states that a change of nominees cannot be made once the campaign moves within 76 days of the election. For this contest, the point-of-no-return date occurred on Sept. 28.

Suggestions range from running defeated Sen. Luther Strange as a write-in candidate, calling the state legislature into special session to pass emergency legislation to change the election law, or simply refusing to seat Moore should he win the Dec. 12 election. If they choose the latter route, another special election would have to be called and scheduled, and the cycle begins anew.

For his part, Moore is already launching fundraising appeals lashing out at his accusers and begging for resource help in order to fight back. He shows no indication that he will relinquish his position as the US Senate nominee.

More will clearly come of this story during the coming week.

VA-6

Continuing what looks to be a series of House incumbent retirements, veteran 13-term Virginia Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Roanoke), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, announced that he, too, will depart when the current Congress adjourns. The timing coincides with his allotted chairmanship tenure also coming to an end.

Goodlatte becomes the 34th regular cycle member not to seek re-election next year, and the 24th Republican. This total does not include the PA-18 vacancy (former Rep. Tim Murphy, R-Pittsburgh) that will be filled on March 13. The latest vacant seat was filled earlier this week when Utah Rep-Elect John Curtis (R-Provo) was elected to replace resigned Congressman Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy).

Though the open GOP list now reaches 24 seats, 17 of them are safely or likely Republican. Only two are in the toss-up category (FL-27, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Miami; NJ-2, Rep. Frank LoBiondo, R-Ventnor City), and another five are rated as lean Republican.

Virginia’s 6th District is safely in the GOP column. Goodlatte averaged 77.6 percent of the vote over his 13 congressional elections. The district hugs the West Virginia border and runs north to south along Interstate 81 from Strasburg through Harrisonburg, Staunton, and Lexington, continuing south all the way to Roanoke, with a jut westward to annex the Lynchburg region. President Trump carried the 6th, 60-35 percent, while Mitt Romney outpaced President Barack Obama here, 60-40percent.

Utah’s Lightning Speed; Norman Wins

By Jim Ellis

May 23, 2017 — Utah Gov. Gary Herbert (R) just scheduled the special election to replace resigning Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy), and the candidate filing deadline will occur even before the congressman leaves office.

Chaffetz announced last week that he will resign from the House effective June 30. It was thought there would be a battle over the UT-3 special election process because Utah election law sets no procedure parameters. The state has not hosted a special federal election since 1930.

Utah election law merely says that a special election will be scheduled in the event of a vacancy. Some in the legislature are indicating that they need to be called into special session to determine the procedure, i.e., primary schedule, whether a nominating convention will be held, etc.

But over the weekend, Gov. Herbert usurped such an idea and had Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox (R) publicly announce the special election schedule.

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