By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025
Senate
Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo
The Democrats need to strongly compete in Maine to have any chance of re-capturing the Senate majority, and the party leadership has figuratively put the full-court candidate recruitment press on Gov. Mills during the past several months.
While the party is apparently getting its preferred candidate, there is no guarantee of success. Collins has won five elections in the state, beginning her Senatorial career in 1996 with a victory over ex-Congressman and former Gov. Joe Brennan (D). She would go on to average 57.3 percent of the vote over her five victorious campaigns.
Though Gov. Mills is the Democrats’ candidate of choice, she is not without negatives. First, she would be 79 years old as a freshman Senator. This neutralizes any potential attack against Sen. Collins as a septuagenarian. The incumbent will be 73 years old when people cast their ballots in the 2026 election.
Secondly, though Gov. Mills was re-elected in 2022 with a 55-42 percent margin over former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R), and she averaged 52.5 percent in her two gubernatorial campaigns, her job approval took a dive when she supported a controversial energy transport issue that most believed favored Massachusetts to Maine’s detriment. The ballot measure to support such a policy was handily defeated at the ballot box, which was a major loss for Gov. Mills since she was its champion.
Additionally, polling showed the electorate soundly opposed her nationally publicized position of allowing transgenders to compete in women’s sports.
Sen. Collins’ last re-election battle, the 2020 race against then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), was arguably her most difficult. The Gideon campaign spent more than $60 million against Sen. Collins in addition to $48 million in outside money. This, in a state of just 1.36 million people.
The Gideon campaign was so flush with money that $9 million remained in her campaign account after the election. The candidate explained there was simply no way to spend more since all available media slots were purchased and mail produced and sent, yet hundreds of thousands of dollars continued to arrive online during the campaign’s final days.
Sen. Collins was tabbed for defeat as polling consistently found her running behind Gideon. During the campaign cycle from February to late October, 14 polls were publicly released from eight different pollsters and Sen. Collins trailed in all, according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives. In the 14 polls, the Senator fell behind Gideon by an average of just under five percentage points, yet she won by almost nine.
Therefore, polling must be considered suspect for Maine. Already we see a recent Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 8-9; 642 registered Maine voters; live interview & text) that puts businessman Dan Kelban (D) ahead of Sen. Collins by a 44-35 percent margin. This study should be viewed skeptically since Kelban is largely unknown and the Maine polling history involving Sen. Collins has largely proven inaccurate.
In addition to Gov. Mills likely entering the Senate race, announced Democrats include Kelban, President of the Maine Beer Company located in Freeport, oyster farmer and Iraq and Afghanistan wars veteran Graham Platner, ex-USAID official David Costello, and six minor candidates. It is unclear how many of these will remain in the race once Gov. Mills officially enters the campaign.
Analyzing Maine statewide campaigns is relatively simple. The state has two congressional districts. The 1st, located in southern Maine, is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 53.7D – 40.8R).
The northern 2nd District is largely Republican, though Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has won four elections here. Some of those victories were through Ranked Choice Voting coupled with a very close 50.3 – 49.6 percent margin last November. During the same period, President Trump carried the district in all three of his elections. Each time he earned an extra electoral vote, since Maine is one of two states where the congressional districts carry their own national tally.
The 2nd District stretches from the Lewiston/Auburn area all the way to Canada and is the largest area congressional seat east of the Mississippi River. It is largely regarded as the most Republican CD in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.
Thus, in a statewide race, a Democrat must equal or outperform traditional Democratic totals in the 1st, while a Republican must do similarly in the 2nd and cut the margin of defeat in the 1st, as Sen. Collins did in 2020.
In 2026, former Gov. LePage returns, this time to challenge Rep. Golden. His presence should help Collins maximize the 2nd District Republican vote since the former Governor has handily carried the seat in all three of his races: two victorious gubernatorial efforts and his 2022 losing campaign to Gov. Mills.
Once again, the 2026 election cycle promises to produce another hotly contested US Senate race in the Pine Tree State. Having Gov. Mills as the Democratic candidate is certainly a recruitment victory for the party hierarchy, but convincing the Governor to run is only the first step in what promises to be a long, tough road to victory next year.
