By Jim Ellis
This week, former Virginia governor and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe, who soon will likely take steps to formalize his own presidential campaign, said that regardless of the total number of people contemplating joining the race it is probable we could see as many as eight or nine candidates in serious competition for the party nomination. McAuliffe’s observation will likely prove correct.
The party rules involving delegate selection and apportionment, the fact that Democrats do not allow winner-take-all primaries or caucuses, the early voting schedule, and that Super Delegates no longer participate in the first convention roll call mean advancing to more than one ballot to determine the ultimate nominee becomes a distinct possibility. All of this adds to the uncertainty engulfing the early phase of this national campaign.
Right now, however, speculation is building around just who will advance into the credibility round, that is, those who have enough support to position themselves to actually win the nomination in July of 2020.
Let’s first look at the entire Democratic field, understanding that as many as 36 different individuals who at least at one time have publicly acknowledged consideration of forming, or expressed an overt desire to form, a presidential campaign. Some have already made public statements declining to run, while another segment appears unlikely to join the fray. Even disqualifying the persons from these categories would still leave us with at least 23 individuals who could well enter the race.