Tag Archives: California

A Serious Pelosi Challenge?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

House

Saikat Chakrabarti

Saikat Chakrabarti, a Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Pelosi, who was elected to the House in 1987 after being the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure after winning a special election victory in ’87 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the US House.

Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York Rep. Joe Crowley and now believes he can engineer a similar result for himself against a Democratic Party icon.

A Chakrabarti campaign poll from Beacon Research (Sept. 12-20; 600 likely California June jungle primary voters; text and live interview) finds Rep. Pelosi leading Chakrabarti 47-34 percent. After the respondents are read push questions featuring the 85-year-old incumbent’s age and whether or not a new generation of Democratic leadership should come to power, the ballot test then flips to 44-36 percent in Chakrabarti’s favor.

Though the poll could arguably be within the realm of accuracy at this early date, the results should not be taken particularly seriously. Most importantly, we are not looking at a Democratic primary battle on June 2. Instead, California uses the top-two jungle primary system that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. The top two finishers in what is ostensibly a qualifying election then advance into the general election regardless of the percentages attained on the initial vote.

Thus, to think Rep. Pelosi would not advance into the general election under this system is absurd considering her consecutive 20 congressional election win streak from her San Francisco-anchored CD.

The general election will yield an entirely different campaign because the turnout will be much larger in the November election, which benefits the former Speaker. Thus, it will not be enough for Chakrabarti to outpace Pelosi in the lower turnout June election because both contenders would advance into the general no matter what their attained percentages.

It is already becoming clear, however, that we will see a number of intra-party challenges to aging Democratic incumbents around the country from younger candidates. Several, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH; 78 years old), and Reps. Danny Davis (D-IL; 84), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL; 81), have already announced their retirements in the face of potential challengers who said they would use the “new generation of leadership” theme.

Others looking at serious challenges and facing the same theme are Reps. John Larson (D-CT; 77) and David Scott (D-GA; 80). Other Democratic members who are 75 years old or older and are seeking re-election may have nomination challengers, but the opposition at this point does not look particularly strong. This list includes two past leadership members, Reps. Steny Hoyer, (D-MD; 86) and Jim Clyburn, (D-SC; 85), along with Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA; 87) and Frederica Wilson (D-FL; 82).

While Rep. Pelosi has filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, she has yet to formally announce her re-election candidacy. It is presumed, however, that she will seek a 21st term.

The California Congresswoman’s 11th District, fully contained on the San Francisco peninsula, is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the CA-11 partisan lean is 86.6D – 11.6R. In California, only two districts are more Democratic, and only by a point or two. The pair are the Oakland seat of freshman Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) along with two-term Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove’s (D) Los Angeles domain.

Should voters approve the proposed California redistricting map in the Nov. 4 special election, the three strongest Democratic districts will remain virtually intact. This means that Pelosi’s general election opponent will almost assuredly be a Democrat, and very likely Chakrabarti.

Assuming the former Speaker runs for re-election, the chances of Chakrabarti or any other Democrat dethroning her are minimal at best. Therefore, though an early poll such as his Beacon Research study may suggest a modicum of weakness for the long-time House member, the final vote will again return her for yet another term.

AZ-7 Special Today;
California Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

AZ-7

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva after her win in the July 15 special Democratic primary. / Photo by Kelly Presnell

Voters in the Tucson, Arizona area today go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) who passed away in March.

This vote is basically pro forma, as the determinative election was held in the July 15 Democratic primary. The late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who had to resign her seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors to run for Congress, easily won the party nomination.

Ms. Grijalva’s primary conquest virtually guarantees her a win tonight in a seat that carries a partisan lean of 65.5D – 32.3R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations). She will defeat 2024 Republican congressional nominee Daniel Butierez and exceed the 60 percent vote threshold. The Green Party and No Labels Party also qualified nominees, but they will factor little in the final outcome.

The Grijalva victory will bring the US House partisan division total to 219R – 214D. The next special vote will come in Tennessee on Oct. 7. There, both parties will hold contested primaries as the first step to replacing resigned Rep. Mark Green (R). The Tennessee special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The final vacant seat, Texas’ 18th District anchored in Houston, will hold its jungle special election on Nov. 4. Should no one reach majority support, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule a runoff election for the top two finishers.

California

In a report last month, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) was quoted as saying he is considering entering the open California Governor’s race but will make a decision after the special redistricting election to be held Nov. 4.

It appeared that Sen. Padilla, as a sitting statewide incumbent, would soar to the top of early gubernatorial polls that have never projected any candidate even reaching 20 percent support from what promises to be a crowded final field. The first poll that included Sen. Padilla on the contenders’ list produced a surprising result, however.

The latest California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) testing the Governor’s race and the redistricting ballot referendum was released over the weekend.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only 16 percent preference. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote — former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (8 percent). Sen. Padilla is next, posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator in such a crowded field. Following him, at 3 percent support, is former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 12-term Golden State Congressman, Xavier Becerra (D).

Data such as this may prompt Sen. Padilla to have second thoughts about running for Governor. Though he could still certainly mount a winning campaign, his residual political strength is likely less than he initially calculated.

The Emerson poll also tested the special election to pass a redistricting ballot proposition that would bypass the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map and substitute a gerrymandered plan. The new map would ostensibly relegate Republicans to just four of 52 seats in “retaliation,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), to the Texas redistricting plan.

The ballot initiative polled at 51 percent favoring and 34 percent opposing. While the “Yes” vote is well ahead in this early survey, California analysts point out that the “No” position on almost every ballot initiative gains in polling support as the election draws near. Therefore, reaching only 51 percent in the initial test suggests that the margin for error is slim, and securing passage is not a foregone conclusion.

Expect the Golden State Governor’s race, Sen. Padilla’s ultimate decision about running, and the redistricting referendum to draw much more national attention as we move toward the Nov. 4 special election and the California candidate filing deadline slated for March 6, 2026.

Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.

California Redistricting:
The Five Targeted Seats

The proposed congressional map by California Democrats, (left) and the current map (right). Click on map to see larger image. Graphic: Dave’s Redistricting App / Joshua Metcalf)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025

Redistricting

The California proposed retribution redistricting map that key staff members at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) drew is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan is beginning this week.

In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through a 2010 ballot measure. The only way to cancel the Commission map, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the majority Democrats believe, is to have another vote of the people to directly adopt a specific new map.

While the Newsom et al interpretation will likely be subject to a lawsuit with the objective of halting the process, the legislature this week will vote on a measure to place a new congressional map on a special election ballot this November. To approve a ballot referendum, each legislative chamber must do so with a two-thirds super majority. Considering the Democrats hold well over two-thirds of the seats in both the state Assembly and state Senate, placing the referendum on the ballot will likely be achieved.

Whether a majority of special election voters will adopt the map is open to question. For years, voters have listened to arguments about enacting “fair” district maps. In fact, this argument was the crux of the 2010 initiative campaign to create the citizens’ commission and 61.3 percent of the voters did so. Yet, in this special election, the message coming from Democratic leaders will now be to ‘vote yes for gerrymandering.’

Therefore, getting a majority vote on such a measure may be a more difficult political task than Gov. Newsom and his cohorts currently believe.

Thanks to the statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog, we see the data behind the proposed district configurations. The very rapidly completed calculations tell us how the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections unfolded in every new district. The statisticians also calculated how much of each current district is included in a new 2026 district.

To put the new map in context, we must remember that the current delegation is comprised of 43 Democrats and just nine Republicans. The new map is projected to possibly take the Republicans down to as few as four seats.

As we know, the DCCC California map is drawn as a retaliatory move against the new Texas redistricting plan that could be adopted this week. Projections suggest that the new map could yield as many as five additional GOP seats.

It remains an important point to underscore that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added redistricting issue to his special session in response to a US Justice Department directive to redraw the map. The DOJ cited a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals minority districts ruling that now cause some of the state’s congressional districts to become illegal.

The California Republican US House members facing the most difficult re-election situations, should the proposed map become law, are Reps. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville; District 1), Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento; District 3), and Ken Calvert (R-Corona; District 41).

Another GOP member, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego; District 48), would find himself in a much more competitive re-election campaign, while Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford; District 22), would see his already Democratic-leaning seat further help a Democratic candidate. President Trump, however, still carried the new District 22.

Rep. LaMalfa’s new 1st District, according to The Down Ballot statisticians, would contain just 43.8 percent of his current constituency and transform from a 61 percent Trump district to a 54 percent Kamala Harris CD.

Rep. Kiley would retain 46.8 percent of his current 3rd CD, and sees the presidential index move from 50 percent Trump to 55 percent Harris. Based upon his residence, he would technically be paired with Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento; District 6), but he would likely seek re-election in CA-3.

Rep. Calvert would find himself in the worst position of all the Republicans. A total of 50.5 percent of his current 41st District constituency would be placed in new District 38, which is 56 percent Harris and could mean a pairing with Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier; District 38), though it is likely she would run in new District 41. Most of Rep. Sanchez’s constituents are in either District 38 or District 31 that fellow Democrat Gil Cisneros (D-Covina) holds, but District 41 could be open, carries a Kamala Harris percentage of 57, and runs adjacent to her current district.

Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) would find most of her constituency in new District 41, but a third of her voters are in new District 40, which is a 56 percent Trump seat and does not have an incumbent. We could see Kim and Calvert both running for this seat.

The Issa 48th CD would keep only 32.3 percent of its current population base, while the presidential index moves from 56 percent Trump to 52 percent Harris.

Finally for the Republicans, the Valadao 22nd District keeps 84.3 percent of its current constituency and moves from 52 percent Trump to 50 percent Trump. Therefore, the region is not as partisan as some other district iterations that Congressman Valadao has previously faced.

The other Democrats most affected would be Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach; District 42) who would retain only 35.2 percent of his constituency base; Dave Min (D-Irvine; District 47) would lose a majority of his current seat (52.7 percent), but his new territory is much more Democratic; while Scott Peters (D-San Diego; District 50) would keep only 43.5 percent of his current constituency.

While these Democratic members would be in strong shape against a Republican, a series of strong Democratic candidates could pose individual threats to each.

House Overview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 22, 2025

House

Already we have seen developments occur in key 2026 House election cycle campaigns. Over the next four days, we will recap the action. Today, we look at districts in Alaska through Colorado; tomorrow, Florida to Minnesota. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

At this point, it appears there are 49 races in the competitive category. Republicans currently hold 26 of the seats and Democrats 23. Therefore, we can expect another tight election cycle.

Alaska

AK-AL — While polling again suggests another dead heat race for at-large freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) if former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) were to return for a re-match, it appears such a contest will not materialize. It is highly likely that Peltola will enter the state’s open Governor’s race.

Arizona

AZ-1 — In November, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) defeated state Rep. Amish Shah (D) 52-48 percent. Already, Dr. Shah, former news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galen-Woods (D), and businessman Jonathan Treble (D) have announced their candidacies. A competitive Democratic primary and general election is on the horizon for this Maricopa County congressional seat.

AZ-6 — Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) and did so with a 50-47 percent margin. Engel stated that she will not return for a third congressional race. Retired Marine Corps Sergeant JoAnna Mendoza (D) has already raised over $800,000 for her announced campaign. She reports over $726,000 cash-on-hand, while Rep. Ciscomani posts over $1.2 million in his campaign account. This will again be a highly competitive national congressional campaign.

AZ-7 — The special general election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) is scheduled for Sept. 23. The determinative battle, however, will be the July 15 Democratic primary. Though five candidates have filed for the party primary, the race is realistically between Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. This district will not be competitive in the 2026 regular election.

California

CA-3 — Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) was re-elected to a second term with 55 percent of the vote in November. He has drawn a significant Democratic opponent for 2026. Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall (D) announced that she will enter the ’26 campaign. Her constituency represents approximately 15 percent of the district population.

CA-9 — Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy) defeated Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) by a slight 52-48 percent margin in 2024. Lincoln says he is considering returning for a re-match but has not yet announced his 2026 candidacy. Rep. Harder already reports over $2.2 million in his campaign war chest.

CA-13 — This district hosted the closest House race in the entire country last year, as now-Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) defeated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. Republicans appear to have their act together for 2026. They have recruited Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez (R) into the developing contest. Duarte has already announced that he will not return for a re-match and endorsed Lopez. Rep. Gray had a weak 1st Quarter from a fundraising perspective. He posts only $344,000 in his campaign account.

CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic seat in the nation to elect a Republican to the House. In November, he again defeated former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), this time, 53-47 percent. Salas may return for a third run but has not yet announced his intentions. Visalia School Board Trustee Randy Villegas (D) is a declared candidate and says he will remain in the race irrespective of what Salas decides. In 2026, this will again be a top national congressional campaign.

CA-41 — The Inland Empire will again feature a competitive race for 17-term Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona), but he will have a different general election opponent. Democratic former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who ran two close races against the veteran Congressman, has already announced that he will not return for a third run. Democrats have recruited Grammy Award winning musician Tim Myers in his place.

CA-45 — Freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) defeated then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by just 683 votes, making it the second-closest congressional race in the country. Steel immediately filed a 2026 FEC committee upon her defeat but only raised a little over $74,000 in the 1st Quarter. She has over $942,000 in her campaign account, however. Therefore, we are likely to see another highly competitive Tran-Steel contest here in 2026. For his part, Rep. Tran posted just over $547,000 in his campaign committee.

CA-49 — Four-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) defeated Republican Matt Gunderson 52-48 percent in November but is likely to face a stronger opponent in 2026. San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is an announced candidate and only one of two Republican US House challengers nationwide to raise over $400,000 in the 1st Quarter. Though the Orange County candidates have dominated this district in recent elections, San Diego County holds two-thirds of the CD’s residents. Therefore, this should be a race to watch in 2026.

Colorado

CO-8 — The politically marginal 8th District of Colorado that lies north and east of Denver will perennially be on the competitive House race list. In 2022, Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the seat with 48 percent of the vote. In 2024, Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans unseated her with 49 percent. Another tough race is in store for what will always be a vulnerable incumbent.

Caraveo has announced she will return for a rematch but must first get past state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) to secure the party nomination. Rutinel posted impressive fundraising numbers in the 1st Quarter, attracting more than $1.2 million in support. Therefore, we can expect to see a hot Democratic primary and general election here in 2026.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

California Dreamin’

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 21, 2025

Governor

Ric Grenell

An article from the News of the United States (NOTUS) organization published earlier in the week sheds some new light about a potential 2026 Governor’s race in California.
In fact, the article includes comments from several of the state’s GOP House members stating their belief that Republican Ric Grenell might have an outside chance of denying Kamala Harris the office if both choose to run next year.

Grenell is a Trump Administration official who is currently a special envoy along with serving as president and interim executive director of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Previously, in the first Trump Administration, Grenell was the US Ambassador to Germany and served as the Acting Director of National Intelligence. He has indicated that if Harris were to enter the race, running for Governor of California would be of interest to him.

“I think that we’ve got a good opportunity here because especially if Kamala Harris runs, I think that this will be a race that is very winnable,” says Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). “I think that there very much is a coalition of Californians who would support a candidate who can deliver on that basic quality of life.”

Rep. Kiley is likely too optimistic. While President Donald Trump substantially improved his political standing within California, Kamala Harris still recorded a 58.5 – 38.3 percent statewide victory. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory spread over Trump was 63.5 – 34.3 percent.

In 2020, Trump won 23 of California’s 58 counties. In 2024, he performed much better, actually winning a majority of the state’s counties (33 of 58). His problem: in the top 10 most populous counties, Trump prevailed in only three.

Of the top three population counties, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange, which account for 40 percent of the total California population, Trump was only able to average 39.7 percent of the vote. While this number is slightly better than his statewide percentage, the major liberal northern California counties of San Francisco, Alameda, San Mateo, Marin, and Santa Clara are not included in the top three most populous. Here, the current President averaged only 20.9 percent.

In 2020, Trump’s average numbers in the three largest counties were even worse: 36.3 percent. In the five sizable northern California counties, he posted a woeful mean average vote percentage of just 18.3.

While the chances of Grenell, or any other Republican, winning the Governorship in 2026 are virtually nil, Trump did increase his standing when compared to 2020 in 57 counties, which is an encouraging number for the GOP. Harris also under-performed President Joe Biden’s California vote totals in all but one county.

While the general election may be out of reach for a Republican, advancing from the state’s jungle primary apparatus is not.

Former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) has already announced that she will run for Governor. While earlier saying she would stand aside for Harris, her announcement tour made no such declaration. Therefore, if she and Harris are on the all-party ballot with a Republican such as Grenell, it certainly would be within the realm of possibility to see either Porter or Harris not qualify for the general election. Under such a scenario, the primary voters would virtually elect the next Governor.

The other California Republican problem is the large amount of money needed to compete. Former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) was able to advance into the 2024 Senate general election largely because eventual winner Adam Schiff (D) ran ads in the more conservative regions of the state attacking Garvey as being too conservative and close to Trump.

Knowing that he would beat Garvey, or any other Republican in the general election, Schiff virtually financed Garvey’s campaign effort to propel him past Porter, who at that time was also running for Senate.

It is unlikely that we will see such a scenario in 2026. Therefore, Republicans will be forced to raise a large amount of early money to help secure a general election slot and then hope that the political environment would be such that a GOP candidate could score a long-shot win. With so many Senate races in play during this election cycle, it will be a tough sell to convince national major donors to back a Republican gubernatorial contender.

While Grenell may be one of the better candidates that California Republicans could attract, his chances of winning are likely far less than those beginning to promote him would publicly concede.