Tag Archives: California

Greene to Resign; Swalwell for Gov; Velazquez will Retire

Read Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s full resignation letter on X.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

US House

Three more US House seats became open late last week, from Georgia, California and New York.

GA-14

The recent feud between former staunch allies President Donald Trump and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) has culminated with the latter resigning from office.

In her resignation announcement, Rep. Greene said, “I have too much self-respect and dignity, love my family way too much, and do not want my sweet district to have to endure a hurtful and hateful primary against me by the President we all fought for, only to fight and win my election while Republicans will likely lose the midterms.”

Rep. Greene indicates she will resign from the House effective Jan. 5. Once the abrupt resignation becomes official, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will schedule a special election to fill the northwest Georgia vacancy.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for GA-14 is 69.2R – 28.9D, which makes the 14th the safest Republican district in Georgia. The seat contains nine full counties and part of Cobb. The CD stretches from near the city of Marietta on the district’s southern border all the way to Tennessee, encompassing the area just south of Chattanooga.

CA-14

On the heels of billionaire Tom Steyer (D) entering the open jungle California gubernatorial primary, seven-term US Representative and former presidential candidate (2020) Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore) announced on the “Jimmy Kimmel Live” program that he will also run for Governor next year.

At this point, a total of 63 individuals, 24 Democrats, 20 Republicans, and 19 independents or minor party candidates, have announced their gubernatorial intentions. It remains to be seen how many actually petition to run by the state’s candidate filing deadline scheduled for March 11 (five days later than the official March 6 deadline because the incumbent Governor is not running). The official candidates will then go on to compete in the June 2 statewide jungle qualifying election.

Under California voting procedure, all candidates are placed on the same initial election ballot regardless of party preference. The top two finishers, irrespective of party preference or percentage attained will advance to the general election.

Therefore, in such a situation with several candidates who appear capable of qualifying for the general election, i.e., Democrats Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Health and Humans Services Secretary, ex-CA Attorney General, and former Congressman Xavier Becerra, and Republicans Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, it may be difficult to conceptualize Rep. Swalwell at least capturing second place in an expensive statewide campaign.

At the end of September, the Congressman reported only $520,000 in his campaign account, so he would certainly be considered well behind in the money chase for a California statewide campaign.

In any event, his 14th Congressional District now becomes an open seat, which is the fourth in California and the second from the San Francisco Bay Area.

The new CA-14 district, which covers the East Bay area south of Oakland and is fully contained within Alameda County, houses the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. The new partisan lean, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, is 68.4D – 30.6R. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that two Democrats could advance into the general election from the open June 2 jungle qualifying election.

NY-7

Saying, “I love this work and I love my district, but I believe now is the right moment to step aside and allow a new generation of leaders to step forward,” Veteran Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-NY) declared late last week that she will not seek re-election to an 18th term next year.

The Velazquez announcement means there will be over 40 open seats in the House for the 2026 election. Including Reps. Eric Swalwell (R-CA) and Velazquez, the total number of exiting Democratic members now rises to 15.

The exact open seat figure will be determined when the Texas redistricting saga finally ends, and a 2026 map is locked in place. The state of Texas immediately appealed to the US Supreme Court, asking for a stay of last week’s three-judge panel ruling that returned the state, at least temporarily, to the 2021 map.

Justice Samuel Alito, the administrator for the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals in which Texas lies, granted the state’s request. Therefore, last week’s three-judge panel decision is stayed, and unless the high court takes further action the 2025 map returns as the plan in place.

Velazquez is the ranking Democrat on the Small Business Committee, a panel that she chaired for four years during the period when her party last controlled the House majority. She will leave a Brooklyn-Queens congressional district that will remain safely under Democratic control.

New York’s 7th District finds 60 Perent of its population in Brooklyn and 40 percent in the Queens borough. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the NY-7 partisan lean is a whopping 85.7D – 11.5R, so the fight to succeed Rep. Velazquez will occur in the June 23 Democratic primary.

California Numbers:
Some Democrats Actually Fare Worse

California Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version: Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

Redistricting

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan division for all of the new Golden State districts.

Several Democratic incumbents, and surprisingly the two considered most vulnerable heading into the 2026 election, actually fare worse when compared to the previous draw. Several Republican districts have no doubt been destroyed, but the situation may not be as dire for the GOP as Gov. Newsom’s media spin leads one to believe.

Starting in Northern California, Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-Oroville) 1st District has been transformed into a Democratic district. According to the DRA partisan lean calculations, the 1st moves from 60.2R – 37.7D to 55.2D – 44.1R. With state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) positioning himself to challenge Rep. LaMalfa, the Republican Congressman will have a very difficult time winning an eighth term.

Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is leaving his Sacramento County 6th District to run in District 3, which is now a point more Democratic than his home district. There, he will ostensibly challenge two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). The move puts Rep. Kiley in a bad position since his 3rd CD has flipped from holding a partisan lean of 52.5R – 45.6D to one having a 53.4D – 45.7R split, a net swing of just under 15 percentage points toward the Democratic segment.

There is some speculation that Rep. Kiley will vacate District 3 and attempt to unseat fellow Republican Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, one of just four safe Republican seats in the state. The new CA-5 partisan lean: 60.7R – 38.7D.

Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) was the closest winner of all 435 districts in the 2024 election, a 187-vote win over then-Rep. John Duarte (R). Surprisingly, the new map makes the latest version of CA-13 slightly less Democratic. The previous partisan lean was 54.0D – 44.2R, yet Duarte won the seat in 2022 and barely lost in 2024. The new partisan lean is a net 4.6 percentage points more Republican (52.4D – 46.9R).

Though the new 13th District remains more Democratic, the congressional voting history shows weakness in the Dem fortress. A strong candidate such as former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R), who has already announced that he will run, projects another difficult race for Gray.

Fresno Rep. Jim Costa (D) has averaged only 53.4 percent of the vote in his two elections but his district, just like Rep. Gray’s, actually moves more Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Instead of seeing a 58.5D – 39.9R partisan lean, the new district records a 54.4D – 45.0R swing, a net gain of 9.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor. Though Rep. Costa will still be favored to carry the new 21st CD, seeing a potential Republican upset develop here is not outside the realm of possibility.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) has always been a major national Democratic target since he represents one of the most Democratic districts to send a Republican to the US House. Despite facing an adverse partisan lean in the previous District 22 version of 55.5D – 42.6R, Rep. Valadao secured two consecutive victories. This is another Central Valley district where the non-partisan calculations find the Republican factor getting better on this new map.

Moving forward, the DRA partisan lean for CD-22 is 52.1D – 47.3R, representing a net Republican gain of 8.1 percentage points. Therefore, with Rep. Valadao securing a 53-47 percent victory under the previous partisan lean, his chances should improve under this new 2026 map.

Seven-term Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) also sees his sprawling desert district become a bit more Republican. According to the past and present DRA partisan lean calculations, Rep. Ruiz’s 25th District is 5.5 percentage points more Republican. The new partisan lean is 54.2D – 45.3R, which clearly still favors Democrats, but the new draw makes the seat potentially more competitive.

The new 40th District is the final domain conceded to the Republicans. At this point, it appears both Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra) may be fighting each other to capture this seat. Rep. Calvert has already declared he will run here as his 41st District was transferred to Los Angeles County from Riverside County, and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) has declared her intent to run in that district.

Neither Reps. Calvert nor Kim represent a great deal of the new 40th, so we will see how this paired contest eventually unfolds. It is possible that both could advance to the general election under the state’s jungle primary format so we might see a year-long campaign between the two Republicans.

Another surprising aspect on this new map is the draw for freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) in the new 45th District. In 2024, Tran unseated two-term GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by 653 votes, which made it the second-closest congressional race in California and the nation. Yet, under the new map, the partisan lean actually moves slightly more toward the Republicans. When Rep. Tran won, the DRA partisan lean was 52.2D – 45.9R. The new ratio is 51.7D – 47.5R, a net swing of 2.1 percentage points toward the GOP.

While Rep. Tran will still see more Democratic voters in his district than Republican, we can count on the GOP making a major effort here. Under the new draw, this seat could be another option for Rep. Kim.

The final district that was greatly changed is Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-San Diego) 48th District. The seat flips from having a partisan lean of 58.3R – 39.8D to a new district, largely because of including most of the city of Encinitas, that yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan split. Obviously, the district is somewhat more Democratic, but the numbers are close enough that Rep. Issa will have a fighting chance to win again.

While Democrats will very likely gain seats under this new draw and reduce California’s Republican contingent to fewer than the nine seats they currently control, stretching to a Democratic gain of five might not be achieved.

A Trio of US House Updates:
Stefanik, Calvert, Golden

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

House

Political moves are now coming fast and furious. We see an increase in retirements, members announcing for different offices, and a just-beginning round of California political musical chairs, because last Tuesday voters adopted the state’s new redistricting map.

Among the moves are the recently announced political plans from a trio of US House Representatives: Ken Calvert (R-CA), Jared Golden (D-ME), and Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Today, we take a look at each situation.

Stefanik: NY-21

Rep. Elise Stefanik / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

As has been expected for some time, six-term New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) announced on Friday that she will challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in next year’s statewide race.

The announcement comes at an interesting time, however, just three days after Republicans suffered crushing defeats in California, New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia.

Though Gov. Hochul’s job approval numbers have been up and down over the course of her serving part of resigned Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) final term and being elected once in her own right, Rep. Stefanik, and any other Empire State Republican, running statewide incurs a formidable challenge even under the best of circumstances. For example, the last GOP candidate to win a major New York statewide race was former Gov. George Pataki, who was elected to a third term in 2002.

Upon his re-election, President Trump nominated Rep. Stefanik as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, but her nomination was withdrawn because the GOP House leadership did not want to risk another seat in a special election that might have threatened the party’s small majority. At that point, it became clear that a Stefanik for Governor move would soon be forming.

Democrats likely already have their 2026 open congressional race nominee. When it appeared that Stefanik would be headed to the UN, the local county Democratic Party chairs nominated dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who has already raised $3.7 million for a congressional race and has just over $2 million in his campaign account.

The 21st District is reliably Republican, but the GOP lost the seat prior to Stefanik’s initial victory in 2014. Therefore, we can expect a competitive open general election next year.

Calvert: CA-41

One of the hardest-hit Republicans under the new California gerrymander, which is designed to neutralize expected GOP gains in Texas, is veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona). The new California congressional map eviscerated Rep. Calvert’s desert 41st District, which had performed as a Lean Republican seat. The new plan places different parts of the current CA-41 in other surrounding Los Angeles/Riverside/San Bernardino area CDs.

Wanting to remain in Congress, Rep. Calvert announced that he will move to new District 40, where he will likely face a fellow Republican incumbent in a paired situation. It appears that Calvert and three-term Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) will compete for one of only four districts that now favor Republicans.

California members continue to survey their 2026 prospects, so we can expect to see other district moves in the coming days. Further incumbent pairings could soon be announced as the Golden State political musical chairs begins in earnest.

Golden: ME-2

Last week, Maine Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) announced that he will not seek a fifth term next year. The Pine Tree State’s northern 2nd Congressional District is the most Republican seat in the country that elects a Democrat to the House, and the Congressman indicated that ending his tenure after four terms is proper since Maine’s term limit for its state legislators is four two-year terms.

Had he remained, Golden would have faced a difficult political year. His general election opponent would certainly have been former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in a district that LePage carried all three times he ran statewide. Therefore, a Golden-LePage race would have been rated a toss-up.

Before getting to the general election, Golden was staring at a Democratic primary challenge from the ideological left in the person of State Auditor and ex-Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.

Because Maine elects its statewide constitutional officers through the state legislature and not the voters, Dunlap does not have the electoral experience that he would have in commensurate positions from most other states. Still, he would have been a formidable Democratic opponent to Rep. Golden and is now likely to be considered the front runner for the party nomination.

Speculation at the beginning of the year pegged Golden as a possible gubernatorial candidate, and while he would have been credible in the general election, his primary prospects would have been rated as difficult. Golden would have been a centrist campaigning before a very liberal primary vote base. Some speculation also suggested that he might challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but as a former staffer to the five-term incumbent, such an option was never seriously pursued.

Open Seats

With a spate of political announcements last week, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi retiring, we now see 38 open US House seats in addition to the special elections being conducted in Tennessee and Texas.

Of the 38, a total of 22 are Republican-held, 13 Democratic, with three new seats being created through the Texas redistricting project. Most of the 2026 races, however, will not feature competitive open general election campaigns, but all will host hot primaries. Of the 38 current open seats, it is reasonable to expect only nine competitive general election contests. The other 29 will safely or likely remain with the incumbent party.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi to Retire

Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election to Congress. Watch the video on X here: Nancy Pelosi announces retirement. (Or click on the image above to see the video posted to her X account. Her announcement comes at 4:45 in the video.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

House

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement yesterday morning that she will retire when the current Congress ends has taken center stage, politically.

Nancy Pelosi was first elected to Congress back in 1987 when she won a special election to replace the late Rep. Sala Burton (D-San Francisco). Burton ran for and was elected to the seat in 1983 when her husband, then-Rep. Phil Burton (D) suddenly passed away.

Before coming to Congress, Pelosi had been the California Democratic Party chair. She grew up, however, in Baltimore, where her father, Thomas D’Alesandro, was the city’s Mayor. Therefore, her introduction to elective politics came at a young age.

At the end of next year, Rep. Pelosi will have served 39 years in the House, and eight of those as Speaker. She became the first, and only, woman to hold that post when the Democrats regained the House majority in 2007 after a 12-year hiatus from power.

Rep. Pelosi would then take a step back to Minority Leader in 2011 when Democrats lost control of the House. She returned to the body’s top post in 2019 and held the Speakership until the Democrats again lost the majority in 2023. At that point, she retired from the House leadership but remained as a regular member.

This year, Rep. Pelosi’s political outlook back home became more challenging. While she’s had opponents in every election none had been substantial, meaning she was able to record landslide wins every two years.

When Sakat Chakrabarti, who quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) upset win in 2018, announced his intention to challenge the former Speaker in the 2026 Democratic primary most believed he was not a substantial threat to defeat Pelosi. His personal wealth and track record with AOC’s upset campaign, however, gave him a modicum of credibility that no other Pelosi opponent had commanded.

The political situation became even more intriguing last month when three-term state Sen. Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) announced that he would also enter the race, presumably to challenge Pelosi. The move was a surprise since it was assumed that Sen. Weiner, who represents even more of San Francisco than does Pelosi because California state Senate seats are bigger than congressional districts, would wait until she retired to run for Congress.

Some believed the Weiner move was a ploy to encourage the Congresswoman to retire. Most believed he would have backed off of the challenge should she have decided to run again. Had Weiner moved forward, and with Chakrabarti also in the race with the goal of building himself a local political base, the campaign would have become significant.

A race against this pair, even though her chances of achieving victory were high, promised to be a difficult political run that would have taken a toll.

Because there is little disagreement regarding the issues among Pelosi and her two opponents, much of the campaign would have concentrated on her age (86 at the time of the next election), and that San Francisco needed a new Representative who could build seniority for the long term.

Whether he was forcing the retirement issue or would have truly challenged her, the end result spun in Sen. Weiner’s favor, and he is now the heir apparent for the seat.

All things considered, the time appeared right for Pelosi to exit the political stage and begin her retirement after a very long career in the public eye.

With Rep. Pelosi leaving the 11th District, it means that there will be 38 open US House seats for the 2026 election to date, after the two special elections in Tennessee and Texas are filled. Like almost all other opens from both parties, CA-11, which changes little under the new California map, will be another safe seat for the incumbent party.

Considering that California employs the jungle primary system where the top two finishers advance to the general election irrespective of political party or percentage attained, we could easily see two Democrats advancing from the state’s June 2nd open primary.

The Pelosi Challenge Deepens

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

House

California state Sen. Scott Weiner

Early this year, former Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaign manager Saikat Chakrabarti announced that he would challenge 20-term California Representative and former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) in the state’s 2026 jungle primary. A new development makes this challenger race more interesting.

Aside from Chakrabarti, who is independently wealthy and loaned his campaign $755,000, a new challenger is coming forward. Three-term state Sen. Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) is now saying that he too will join the race to unseat Pelosi, who can be described as a national Democratic political icon.

Weiner, who was elected to the San Francisco City and County consolidated Board of Supervisors in 2010, ran for and was elected to the state Senate in 2016. Under California election law, state legislators may serve six two-year terms in the state Assembly, or three four-year terms in the state Senate. Should one run for the Assembly and then move to the Senate, the time of service carries over from one house to the other.

While Sen. Weiner can remain in his present position through 2028, he no longer is eligible to seek re-election; therefore, his political situation instills greater impetus to become a congressional candidate.

It has long been surmised that Sen. Weiner would run for Congress as soon as Pelosi retired. Their constituencies almost perfectly overlap, though California state Senate seats are approximately 30 percent larger than US House districts. Many expected the Congresswoman to retire from politics after she left the Speakership, but she has twice been re-elected to the House since publicly deciding to leave her leadership position.

The 2026 11th District congressional race now becomes intriguing. The California jungle primary law requires two individuals to move into the general election regardless of political party affiliation or vote percentage attained. With an overwhelmingly large Democratic CD-11 constituency (a percentage beakdown of 63.5D – 7.5R) it is quite possible for two Democrats to advance into the general election.

Because her political longevity is fundamentally based upon maintaining a strong base at home, Pelosi would assuredly clinch one of the general election slots. With his own strong vote history, one would surmise that Sen. Weiner would be the betting favorite to clinch the second slot. Should such occur, we would see Pelosi facing a competitive opponent for virtually all of calendar year 2026.

Regardless of who eventually runs, Rep. Pelosi must be considered the favorite for re-election even against strong opponents. As we know, she has dominated San Francisco politics for four decades, and rarely has even drawn a credible opponent.

This being the case, why would Sen. Weiner want to enter a race that he would lose especially with so few policy differences existing between he and the former House Speaker? Positioning may be the answer.

Because Sen. Weiner has a four-year term, he can run for Congress in 2026 and not risk his state Senate seat. Secondly, taking advantage of Chakrabarti already spending money against Pelosi, a Weiner entrance may encourage the Congresswoman to retire in order to avoid a competitive campaign at her advanced age. If so, Sen. Weiner becomes the candidate to beat in an open seat situation.

Third, should the former Speaker remain in the race and Weiner loses, he is virtually guaranteed to fare better than any other person to have ever challenged her. Thus, he would be well positioned as the heir apparent when she eventually retires, which could be as soon as the 2028 election assuming she runs again next year.

Fourth, Weiner can begin to prepare a congressional campaign now but then decide to run only if Pelosi does not. In California, if an incumbent does not officially file for re-election, the candidate filing period is extended for five additional business days. Therefore, Weiner would have an opportunity to file even if the Congresswoman decides to retire right before the candidate filing period expires.

While a Weiner congressional candidacy would make interesting political news copy, he is likely merely testing the waters for a future run. There is a good chance the final decision as to whether he runs would occur at the candidate filing deadline.

In 2026, California candidates must fulfill filing requirements by March 6 for the June 2 jungle primary, or March 13 should the incumbent not seek re-election.

A Serious Pelosi Challenge?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

House

Saikat Chakrabarti

Saikat Chakrabarti, a Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Pelosi, who was elected to the House in 1987 after being the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure after winning a special election victory in ’87 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the US House.

Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York Rep. Joe Crowley and now believes he can engineer a similar result for himself against a Democratic Party icon.

A Chakrabarti campaign poll from Beacon Research (Sept. 12-20; 600 likely California June jungle primary voters; text and live interview) finds Rep. Pelosi leading Chakrabarti 47-34 percent. After the respondents are read push questions featuring the 85-year-old incumbent’s age and whether or not a new generation of Democratic leadership should come to power, the ballot test then flips to 44-36 percent in Chakrabarti’s favor.

Though the poll could arguably be within the realm of accuracy at this early date, the results should not be taken particularly seriously. Most importantly, we are not looking at a Democratic primary battle on June 2. Instead, California uses the top-two jungle primary system that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. The top two finishers in what is ostensibly a qualifying election then advance into the general election regardless of the percentages attained on the initial vote.

Thus, to think Rep. Pelosi would not advance into the general election under this system is absurd considering her consecutive 20 congressional election win streak from her San Francisco-anchored CD.

The general election will yield an entirely different campaign because the turnout will be much larger in the November election, which benefits the former Speaker. Thus, it will not be enough for Chakrabarti to outpace Pelosi in the lower turnout June election because both contenders would advance into the general no matter what their attained percentages.

It is already becoming clear, however, that we will see a number of intra-party challenges to aging Democratic incumbents around the country from younger candidates. Several, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH; 78 years old), and Reps. Danny Davis (D-IL; 84), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL; 81), have already announced their retirements in the face of potential challengers who said they would use the “new generation of leadership” theme.

Others looking at serious challenges and facing the same theme are Reps. John Larson (D-CT; 77) and David Scott (D-GA; 80). Other Democratic members who are 75 years old or older and are seeking re-election may have nomination challengers, but the opposition at this point does not look particularly strong. This list includes two past leadership members, Reps. Steny Hoyer, (D-MD; 86) and Jim Clyburn, (D-SC; 85), along with Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA; 87) and Frederica Wilson (D-FL; 82).

While Rep. Pelosi has filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, she has yet to formally announce her re-election candidacy. It is presumed, however, that she will seek a 21st term.

The California Congresswoman’s 11th District, fully contained on the San Francisco peninsula, is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the CA-11 partisan lean is 86.6D – 11.6R. In California, only two districts are more Democratic, and only by a point or two. The pair are the Oakland seat of freshman Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) along with two-term Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove’s (D) Los Angeles domain.

Should voters approve the proposed California redistricting map in the Nov. 4 special election, the three strongest Democratic districts will remain virtually intact. This means that Pelosi’s general election opponent will almost assuredly be a Democrat, and very likely Chakrabarti.

Assuming the former Speaker runs for re-election, the chances of Chakrabarti or any other Democrat dethroning her are minimal at best. Therefore, though an early poll such as his Beacon Research study may suggest a modicum of weakness for the long-time House member, the final vote will again return her for yet another term.

AZ-7 Special Today;
California Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

AZ-7

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva after her win in the July 15 special Democratic primary. / Photo by Kelly Presnell

Voters in the Tucson, Arizona area today go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) who passed away in March.

This vote is basically pro forma, as the determinative election was held in the July 15 Democratic primary. The late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who had to resign her seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors to run for Congress, easily won the party nomination.

Ms. Grijalva’s primary conquest virtually guarantees her a win tonight in a seat that carries a partisan lean of 65.5D – 32.3R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations). She will defeat 2024 Republican congressional nominee Daniel Butierez and exceed the 60 percent vote threshold. The Green Party and No Labels Party also qualified nominees, but they will factor little in the final outcome.

The Grijalva victory will bring the US House partisan division total to 219R – 214D. The next special vote will come in Tennessee on Oct. 7. There, both parties will hold contested primaries as the first step to replacing resigned Rep. Mark Green (R). The Tennessee special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The final vacant seat, Texas’ 18th District anchored in Houston, will hold its jungle special election on Nov. 4. Should no one reach majority support, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule a runoff election for the top two finishers.

California

In a report last month, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) was quoted as saying he is considering entering the open California Governor’s race but will make a decision after the special redistricting election to be held Nov. 4.

It appeared that Sen. Padilla, as a sitting statewide incumbent, would soar to the top of early gubernatorial polls that have never projected any candidate even reaching 20 percent support from what promises to be a crowded final field. The first poll that included Sen. Padilla on the contenders’ list produced a surprising result, however.

The latest California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) testing the Governor’s race and the redistricting ballot referendum was released over the weekend.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only 16 percent preference. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote — former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (8 percent). Sen. Padilla is next, posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator in such a crowded field. Following him, at 3 percent support, is former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 12-term Golden State Congressman, Xavier Becerra (D).

Data such as this may prompt Sen. Padilla to have second thoughts about running for Governor. Though he could still certainly mount a winning campaign, his residual political strength is likely less than he initially calculated.

The Emerson poll also tested the special election to pass a redistricting ballot proposition that would bypass the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map and substitute a gerrymandered plan. The new map would ostensibly relegate Republicans to just four of 52 seats in “retaliation,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), to the Texas redistricting plan.

The ballot initiative polled at 51 percent favoring and 34 percent opposing. While the “Yes” vote is well ahead in this early survey, California analysts point out that the “No” position on almost every ballot initiative gains in polling support as the election draws near. Therefore, reaching only 51 percent in the initial test suggests that the margin for error is slim, and securing passage is not a foregone conclusion.

Expect the Golden State Governor’s race, Sen. Padilla’s ultimate decision about running, and the redistricting referendum to draw much more national attention as we move toward the Nov. 4 special election and the California candidate filing deadline slated for March 6, 2026.