Tag Archives: Albuquerque Journal

Stansbury Wins New Mexico Special

By Jim Ellis

New Mexico state Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D), winner of Tuesday’s special election.

June 3, 2021 — The New Mexico special election went as expected Tuesday, as state Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-Albuquerque) defeated state Sen. Mark Moores (R-Albuquerque) by a 60-36 percent count, which is consistent with the partisan early vote turnout.

The overall participation factor exceeded 131,000 voters, or 28.2 percent of the district’s registered voter universe, which is relatively high for a special election. It appears that over 70 percent of the people participating in the electoral contest cast an early ballot.

Stansbury, twice elected to the state House of Representatives, was victorious in the special Democratic district convention whose delegates were empowered with choosing a party nominee to replace resigned Rep. Deb Haaland (D-Albuquerque). Haaland vacated the House upon being confirmed as US Interior Secretary in the Biden cabinet.

The Stansbury congressional victory margin came from population-dominant Bernalillo County, where more than 90 percent of the CD-1 residents live. Stansbury captured 61 percent of the vote here. In the smaller rural counties, Moores took three of four, but the aggregate vote total from each of those entities was individually less than 2,500 cast ballots.

The Democratic mean average in the seat since partisan conversion in 2008 is 58.2 percent, so Stansbury ran about two points above the benchmark. The state’s current governor, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, represented the 1st District for three terms and scored the single-highest Democratic election percentage during the 13-year post-conversion period. She tallied 65.1 percent in 2016, the same election in which Hillary Clinton posted a 52-35 percent CD-1 result and 48-40 percent statewide.

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Big Governor News

By Jim Ellis

July 12, 2017 — A major announcement was made in a western state governor’s race Monday, with an additional one from an adjacent domain coming later today. Both affect corresponding US House seats.

New Mexico Governor; NM-2

Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) announced that he will enter the open New Mexico governor’s race next year, saying to the Albuquerque Journal that he’s “concerned about an exodus of young people leaving New Mexico,” going to other places for a more favorable job market. Pearce said his campaign will emphasize improving education, spurring economic growth, and reducing crime and poverty.

This will be the second time Pearce has left his House seat to pursue a statewide contest. In 2008, when serving his third term in Congress, he decided to challenge then-Rep. Heather Wilson (R-Albuquerque) for the US Senate nomination, and successfully upset her in the Republican primary. He would then go onto lose the general election to then-Rep. Tom Udall (D-Santa Fe), 61-39 percent, in the Obama landslide year.

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New Land of Enchantment Numbers

The Albuquerque Journal released the results of their Research & Polling, Inc. survey of 667 likely New Mexico voters over the Sept. 3-6 period, and it reveals an improved position for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. New Mexico, along with New Hampshire and Iowa, has performed as a pure swing state in national elections since 2000, but surveys to date have consistently given President Barack Obama double-digit leads.

In this poll, Obama has only a 45-40 percent advantage over Romney, with former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee for President, drawing 7 percent. With just a five-point gap now, the results show substantial movement for Romney, who had been trailing by as many as 15 points in previous surveys. The poll also shows that Johnson could play spoiler for Obama and not Romney. According to the Albuquerque Journal, “Johnson gets 12 percent of the Independent vote in the state, leaving Romney with a 38-35 lead over Obama among the key group.”

The study was conducted after the Republican convention but before the President made his official acceptance speech last week in Charlotte. According to the pollsters, about half of the respondents were questioned subsequent to First Lady Michelle Obama’s address.

In another race, Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-NM-1) leads former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM-1) by a 49-42 percent count. This is consistent with other polls that have shown both candidates in the 40-percentile range, with Heinrich leading. The numbers break down regionally as one would expect, except that Wilson, tied with Heinrich in the southwestern corner of the state, should be performing better in the region south of Albuquerque.

This poll suggests that the “lean Democrat” rating assigned to this campaign is correct, but also shows a growth pattern available to Wilson. The fact that she leads Heinrich 53-37 percent among Independents is highly encouraging for her campaign effort.