The Senate Picture – Part II (of III)

34-in-cycle-us-senate-seats-2-of-3-Recovered

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 24, 2017 — Continuing our holiday recap of the Senate races (Happy Thanksgiving all — hope you had a great day), today we cover Michigan through North Dakota.

• Michigan: The major event occurring this past week was Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who had been seriously considering launching his own Senate campaign, announcing that he will instead run for a 17th term in the House. On the heels of Rep. Upton’s decision, wealthy venture capitalist Sandy Pensler (R) declared his own candidacy. Already in the Republican field are manufacturing company owner and retired Army Ranger John James, and retired state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is running for a fourth term.
Rating: Likely D

• Minnesota: Months ago, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) announced for re-election after flirting with a gubernatorial campaign. She will face little competition in her quest for a third term.
Rating: Safe D

• Mississippi: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) could face primary and general election competition. State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellis County) says he will shortly decide whether to challenge Sen. Wicker or run for lieutenant governor in 2019. He came within half-percent of denying Sen. Thad Cochran (R) re-nomination in 2014, proving he can run a viable race. McDaniel would attack Sen. Wicker from the right if he chooses to run. In the general election, Brandon Presley, chairman of the state Public Service Commission and cousin of rock legend Elvis Presley, is a potential Democratic candidate but has so far stopped short of launching any formal political effort. Sen. Wicker will be running for a second full term.
Rating: Safe/Likely R

• Missouri: The Show Me State Senate race is basically set, as first-term Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) is challenging incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D). Four polls were taken during the summer, and all show Hawley claiming a small lead. The most recent survey, from Remington Research (Oct. 11-12; 956 likely Missouri voters), sees Republican Hawley leading the two-term Democratic senator, 48-45 percent. This race has the potential of becoming the nation’s premier Senate campaign.
Rating: Toss-Up

• Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) is campaigning for a third term in what shapes up as a highly competitive 2018 political contest. Tester upended Sen. Conrad Burns (R) in 2006, and then won a second term with a 49-45 percent margin over then-At-Large Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Billings). Republicans have recruited first-term State Auditor Matt Rosendale, but former state judge Russ Fagg has earned support from all of the state’s Republican former governors, including ex-governor and former Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot. Though Montana is a conservative state, incumbent Tester must be regarded as a clear favorite for re-election, at least in the early going.
Rating: Lean D

• Nebraska: Sen. Deb Fischer (R) seeks her first re-election next year and appears in strong political shape despite a Public Policy Polling survey (Nov. 10-12) that finds her ahead of Lincoln City Councilor Jane Raybould (D), 42-31 percent. Nebraska’s strong Republican voting trends make this state a lock for Sen. Fischer.
Rating: Safe R

• Nevada: Sen. Dean Heller (R) faces his first re-election as the Democrats’ top national target. He first must outpace perennial Republican candidate Danny Tarkanian in the GOP primary, and then will square off against freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) in the general election. Both will be difficult campaigns for Sen. Heller, and the race will teeter between the two major party candidates likely until Election Day itself.
Rating: Toss-Up

• New Jersey: The federal corruption case brought against Sen. Bob Menendez (D), which ended in a mistrial, likely saves the veteran Garden State politician’s career. The government could re-file the charges or bring new ones, but not being able to convict him in the original setting could suggest the case will be dropped. Potential candidates had been waiting to see what would result, and with Sen. Menendez free from prosecution at least for awhile, it is unlikely that he will draw a major opponent. The situation is still fluid but obviously is now turning the incumbent’s way.
Rating: Likely D

• New Mexico: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) looks strong in his first bid for re-election to the seat he won in 2012. Republicans have a potentially credible candidate in state Labor Commission member Mick Rich, while Lt. Gov. John Sanchez could still enter the race. Sen. Heinrich losing here would be a major upset, and is unlikely to occur. Still, this race could merit some attention as the election cycle progresses.
Rating: Likely D

• New York: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) seeks re-election for a second full term and has little in the way of Republican opposition. The bigger question is whether she will immediately move into the 2020 presidential contest once her Senate race concludes.
Rating: Safe D

• North Dakota: First-term Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) stands for her first re-election in what is arguably the nation’s most conservative state to elect a Democrat. Republican state senator and agriculture-related businessman Tom Campbell (R-Grafton) is in the race and released an internal poll several weeks ago claiming that he enjoys a slight lead. At-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) confirms that he is considering challenging Sen. Heitkamp, but says he won’t make a decision about running until next year. An unforeseen conservative tide developing around election time could sweep Sen. Heitkamp out of office, but the more likely scenario forecasts the senator winning another close election.
Rating: Lean D

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