Greitens Making a MO Comback? No Candidate Reaches 10 Percent in NY

By Jim Ellis — May 31, 2022

Senate

Missouri: Greitens Back Up — The Trafalgar Group joined the firms who have tested the Missouri Republican primary and just released their survey results (May 16-18; 1,065 likely Missouri Republican primary voters; live interview; text; online). They find scandal-tainted resigned Gov. Eric Greitens returning to first place, this time with 26 percent. In this poll, US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) is a close second with 23 percent, and Attorney General Eric Schmitt with 19 percent. US Rep. Billy Long (R-Springfield) leads the also-ran tier with nine percent. The candidates have bounced around in various polls, but no one reaches the 30 percent mark. Expect someone to break from the pack before the Aug. 2 statewide primary election.

House

NY-10: No one Reaches 10 Percent — Emerson College just released a poll for this primary. Though the results are inconclusive because no one reaches even eight percent support, the survey (May 24-25; 500 likely Democratic NY-10 primary voters; combination response online and by text) reveals two important points.

First, Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) is already just as competitive as everyone else in the new Brooklyn/Lower Manhattan CD. In fact, he leads the group, but with only seven percent support followed by former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio with six percent, and all others with five percent or less. A total of 77 percent of the respondents said they are undecided. Second, de Blasio’s poor showing at six percent with total name identification is far worse than his upside-down job approval rating would have suggested. This tells us that the former mayor begins with only a small constituency in this district, and will likely have a difficult time expanding his base.

NY-12: Maloney Tops Nadler — The aforementioned Emerson College Poll (May 24-25; 500 likely NY-10 Democratic primary voters; combination online and text) continues in the adjoining 12th CD that features a paired incumbents battle between New York City veteran Democratic Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler. The survey finds Maloney, who like Nadler was first elected to the House in 1992, leading her opponent with a 31-21 percent support margin. Four other minor Democratic primary candidates score between only one and six percent preference. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the new NY-12, D+68, so the Democratic primary winner on Aug. 23 will win the general election in November.

Redistricting

New Hampshire: Process Heading to Court — The New Hampshire legislature adjourned Sine Die but passed another congressional redistricting map and again sent it to Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who, once more, says he will veto the bill. The governor’s promised action means the redistricting process will move to the state Supreme Court. The justices had previously said they will adopt a “least change” map, meaning both seats will lean toward the Democrats. Republicans were fighting to make the swing 1st District more Republican while conceding the 2nd District to incumbent Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton). Gov. Sununu said he wanted both districts to be competitive. The move will likely cost the Republicans a seat, thus handing Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) a new district that he can again win.