The Final Polls

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 2, 2020 — Tomorrow is the official Election Day, but with early voting delivering nearly 87 million votes and 21 states allowing ballots to come in after Nov. 3, it is likely that many Senate and House races will languish in political overtime. With that background, we look at the polling range of the most recent surveys in battleground Senate races along with the number of people who have already cast their ballots in each state (early voting statistics from TargetSmart.com):


ALABAMA:
• Sen. Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R)
Polling Range
High: Cygnal (Oct. 26-28) – Tuberville +14
Low: Auburn U Montgomery (Oct. 23-28) – Tuberville +11
No Early Voting


ALASKA:
• Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Dr. Al Gross (I/D)
Polling Range
High: Gravis Marketing (Oct. 21-23) – Sullivan +3
Low: Change Research (Oct. 16-19) – Sullivan +3

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 49.1% Total Early Voting 2020: 131,261
Democrat: 33.0% Total Early Voting 2016: 64,583
Unaffiliated: 17.9% Percent Increase: 103%

ARIZONA:
• Sen. Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)
Polling Range
High: Siena College/NYT (Oct. 26-30) – Kelly +7
Low: Emerson College (Oct. 29-31) – Kelly +3

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 47.0% Total Early Voting 2020: 2,376,706
Democrat: 46.4% Total Early Voting 2016: 1,658,410
Unaffiliated: 6.6% Percent Increase: 43%

COLORADO:
Sen. Cory Gardner (R) vs. Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
Polling Range
High: RMG Research (Oct. 9-15) – Hickenlooper +9
Low: Morning Consult (Oct. 11-20) – Hickenlooper +8

Early Voting Stats:
Democrat: 47.0% Total Early Voting 2020: 2,376,706
Republican: 42.7% Total Early Voting 2016: 1,658,410
Unaffiliated: 9.6% Percent Increase: 39%

GEORGIA-A:
• Sen. David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)
Polling Range
High: Public Policy Polling (Oct. 27-28) – Ossoff +3
Low: Landmark Communications (Oct. 28) – Even


GEORGIA-B: Jungle Primary
• (Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) vs. Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) and Rep. Doug Collins (R)
High: Public Policy Polling (Oct. 27-28) – Warnock +19
                                                             – Loeffler + 8
                                                               (over Collins)
Low: Emerson College (Oct. 29-31) – Warnock +11
                                                        – Collins +3
                                                          (over Loeffler)

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 49.8% Total Early Voting 2020: 3,812,140
Democrat: 42.9% Total Early Voting 2016: 2,385,990
Unaffiliated: 7.3% Percent Increase: 60%

IOWA:
• Sen. Joni Ernst (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield (D)
Polling Range
High: Insider Advantage (Oct. 30) – Ernst +6
Low: Emerson College (Oct. 29-31) – Greenfield +3

Early Voting Stats:
Democrat: 46.5% Total Early Voting 2020: 914,352
Republican: 42.2% Total Early Voting 2016: 590,130
Unaffiliated: 11.3% Percent Increase: 35%

KANSAS:
• Rep. Roger Marshall (R) vs. Barbara Bollier (D)
Polling Range
High: VCreek/AMG (Oct. 25-27) – Marshall +4
Low: GBAO (Oct. 25-27) – Bollier +1

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 51.3% Total Early Voting 2020: 700,132
Democrat: 40.3% Total Early Voting 2016: 372,104
Unaffiliated: 8.3% Percent Increase: 88%

KENTUCKY:
• Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)
Polling Range
High: Bluegrass Comm. College (Oct. 16-28) – McConnell +10
Low: Cygnal (Oct. 19-20) – McConnell +10

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 55.0% Total Early Voting 2020: 1,360,129
Democrat: 34.3% Total Early Voting 2016: No Early Voting Process
Unaffiliated: 10.7% Percent Increase: 88%

MAINE:
• Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. St. Rep. Sara Gideon (D)
Polling Range
High: Emerson College (Oct. 29-30) – Gideon +2
Low: Survey USA (Oct. 23-27) – Gideon +1

Early Voting Stats:
Democrat: 55.3% Total Early Voting 2020: 473,979
Republican: 33.0% Total Early Voting 2016: 220,110
Unaffiliated: 11.7% Percent Increase: 115%

MICHIGAN:
• Sen. Gary Peters (D) vs. John James (R)
Polling Range
High: Ipsos/Reuters (Oct. 27-11/1) – Peters +7
Low: EPIC-MRA (Oct. 25-28) – Peters +5

Early Voting Stats:
Democrat: 42.3% Total Early Voting 2020: 2,858,920
Republican: 38.7% Total Early Voting 2016: 1,115,899
Unaffiliated: 19.1% Percent Increase: 156%

MINNESOTA:
• Sen. Tina Smith (D) vs. Ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R)
Polling Range
High: Targoz Market Rsh (Oct. 25-30) – Smith +9
Low: Survey USA (Oct. 23-27) – Smith +3

Early Voting Stats:
Democrat: 45.8% Total Early Voting 2020: 1,518,157
Republican: 31.5% Total Early Voting 2016: 438,070
Unaffiliated: 22.7% Percent Increase: 246%

MONTANA:
• Sen. Steve Daines (R) vs. Gov. Steve Bullock (D)
Polling Range
High: Siena College/NYT (Oct. 18-20) – Daines +3
Low: Public Policy Polling (Oct. 26-27) – Bullock +1

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 46.4% Total Early Voting 2020: 489,424
Democrat: 29.3% Total Early Voting 2016: 269,376
Unaffiliated: 24.3% Percent Increase: 82%

NORTH CAROLINA:
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D)
Polling Range
High: Data for Progress (Oct. 27-11/1) – Cunningham +5
Low: Emerson College (Oct. 29-31) – Cunningham +3

Early Voting Stats:
Democrat: 47.2% Total Early Voting 2020: 4,278,537
Republican: 46.2% Total Early Voting 2016: 3,059,649
Unaffiliated: 6.6% Percent Increase: 40%

TEXAS:
• Sen. John Cornyn (R) vs. M.J. Hegar (D)
Polling Range
High: Gravis Marketing (Oct. 27-38) – Cornyn +6
Low: Data for Progress (Oct. 27-11/1) – Cornyn +3

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 50.9% Total Early Voting 2020: 9,562,541
Democrat: 39.1% Total Early Voting 2016: 5,569,969
Unaffiliated: 10.0% Percent Increase: 72%

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.