The New Missouri Lines

Missouri Congressional Districts / Click on image to go to Dave’s Redistricting interactive map.


By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 6, 2025

Redistricting

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) signed the legislature’s new congressional redistricting map this week, so it appears that the Show Me State delegation will compete in new districts next year.

Naturally, lawsuits are being filed to nullify the new map, and it remains to be seen how the courts will rule through the continuing legal process. Depending upon the lawsuit’s subject matter, the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case before the US Supreme Court could have an effect upon future Missouri map rulings. Oral arguments for the Louisiana case are scheduled for Oct. 15, with a decision to come before the year ends.

The new Missouri map protects all six GOP incumbents, though most shed Republican voters in order to create a new western Republican 5th District. At the heart of the new plan is changing the Kansas City area to create a new Republican leaning seat instead of 11-term Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Kansas City) urban downtown district.

To make the plan work for the GOP, the map drawers expanded the 4th District’s Jackson County share, including drawing the seat directly into Kansas City. Previously, the 4th contained part of Jackson County but none of Kansas City. The design then drives the new 5th CD into rural areas, while still keeping a large portion of Kansas City. The new draw then extends the seat east all the way past Jefferson City, meaning the 5th district’s eastern boundary is now closer to St. Louis than Kansas City.

The new partisan lean of 58.4R – 40.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) is quite different from the previous 5th’s 60.8D – 35.9R division. The difference is a net swing of 43.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor.

Though the new 5th District appears reliably Republican, Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas (D) indicated he might consider running for Congress there, believing the seat will still be competitive and assuming 80-year-old Rep. Cleaver does not seek re-election. The Mayor indicated he wants to ensure that “Kansas Citians … have a choice at the ballot box that represents Kansas City viewpoints and values.”

The 4th District alterations are also substantial. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 59.9R – 38.7D. The previous 4th held a partisan break of 66.8R – 29.9D under the same projection formula, so we see a net change of almost 16 percentage points toward the Democratic line.

Rep. Mark Alford’s (R-Lake Winnebago) 4th is still strongly Republican, and the Congressman will be a clear favorite to win re-election, but he may have to wage a more active campaign than he would have from his original 4th CD.

The remaining six districts all keep their population cores though the partisan leans change in some cases.

The 1st District is again largely the city of St. Louis, but the partisan lean has been made just slightly more Democratic. In the 2021 map, the partisan division was projected at 77.1D – 20.4R. The new 1st carries a 77.9D – 20.3R break. Here, we are likely to see a Democratic primary re-match.

Earlier in the week, former Rep. Cori Bush, who lost renomination in 2024, said she will return to face now-Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis). Irrespective of who prevails in next year’s Aug. 4 Dem primary, the winner will claim the new 1st in the general election.

Another Republican redraw goal was to improve Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Ballwin) re-election prospects in her St. Louis suburban 2nd District by adding more Republican voters. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 54.9R – 43.4D, which is a further cushion of about a point and a half for the seven-term incumbent.

The Republicans from District 3 (freshman Rep. Bob Onder) and 6 (Rep. Sam Graves) both see their respective districts become slightly more Democratic, but the two seats remain firmly in the GOP camp and neither incumbent will have trouble being re-elected.

The two southern Missouri congressional seats, District 7 (Rep. Eric Burlison) and 8 (Rep. Jason Smith), actually see their two safe Republican seats become even more so under the new plan.

Assuming the new map withstands the legal challenges, expect the Republicans to see a net gain of one seat in the Missouri delegation.

Rep. Schweikert Announces for
Governor in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

House

Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) / Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Another US House seat came open Wednesday as eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) announced that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor.

The House open seat count now grows, at least temporarily, to 33. Two more special elections will be held before the end of the year to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas.

Rep. Schweikert’s 1st Congressional District becomes the third Republican open in the volatile toss-up category. After the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members turned Rep. Schweikert’s safe Republican 6th District into a politically marginal 1st District, he has seen two very close re-election results along with a tight presidential contest within his current constituency.

In 2022, Rep. Schweikert was re-elected with just 50.2 percent of the vote over political newcomer and businessman Jevin Hodge (D). Two years later with Hodge not returning for a re-match, the incumbent scored another tight re-election victory but with an improved 51.9 percent against former state Representative and physician Amish Shah (D). This, after winning renomination with just under 63 percent of the vote.

Considering, however, that Schweikert had just agreed to violating 11 different House ethics rules and campaign finance violations resulting in an agreed to $50,000 fine, his strong campaign skills allowed him to politically survive.

President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here with a similarly close 51.1 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, Joe Biden nipped Trump within the current District 1 confines with a 50-49 percent margin.

Clearly, the 1st District congressional campaign will move further up the Democratic target list now that the seat is open. Already in the race originally vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Schweikert is a return appearance from Dr. Shah and former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who lost the 2024 Democratic primary.

Republicans will now have to find a new nominee with Schweikert pursuing his new statewide venture. Potential GOP candidates reportedly are state Rep. Matt Gress and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring.

Already, however, announcing they will not run for Congress, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, are Maricopa County Board of Supervisors’ chairman Thomas Galvin and state Sen. Carine Werner.

While Rep. Schweikert would have faced another difficult re-election campaign for the House, his path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination is also far from secure. In the race for months have been fellow Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 statewide candidate Karrin Taylor Robson.

At least at one point, President Trump had endorsed both Biggs and Robson but then appeared to rescind his endorsement of the latter. The President indicated he didn’t feel that she was using his endorsement to the fullest extent.

A recent Pulse Decision Science survey (Sept. 8-10; 502 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Biggs opening a large GOP primary lead. According to the Pulse ballot test, the Congressman would lead Robson 55-31 percent. The poll was taken just after Rep. Schweikert initially said he was considering entering the race. Adding him to the gubernatorial ballot test question found Schweikert trailing badly with only 11 percent support.

An August, Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 11-18; 365 registered Arizona Republican voters) gave Robson a 37-27 percent advantage over Rep. Biggs. This poll, however, appears to be an outlier.

Previously, four other surveys were released since the beginning of the year from four different pollsters and all cast Rep. Biggs with a substantial advantage. Within the four studies, Biggs averaged 55 percent preference among Republican primary voting respondents as compared to 20 percent for Robson.

The eventual Republican nominee after the Aug. 4, 2026, primary election will face incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Polling is already forecasting a close race irrespective of who becomes the ultimate GOP challenger.

With a tight Governor’s race, two open US House seats, and either primary or general election competition in five of the state’s nine congressional districts, Arizona will be a key electoral state in the 2026 midterm cycle.

New Pappas-Sununu Data

Click on image to see full poll results.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

Senate

The University of New Hampshire just released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open New Hampshire US Senate contest between Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

The UNH poll (Sept. 17-23; 1,361 New Hampshire adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Pappas leading a ballot test question with ex-Sen. Sununu 49-43 percent, but the sampling universe leans more Democratic than the actual voting data suggests. Therefore, it is likely that Sununu is a bit closer to Pappas than this spread foretells.

If ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who ran for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2014 and lost to now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51-48 percent, were the 2026 Republican nominee the Pappas lead would grow to 52-37 percent. On the current Republican Senate primary ballot test, Sununu posts a landslide lead over Brown, 42-19 percent.

Several data points provide evidence that the poll skews somewhat Democratic, though the answers have been weighted to balance the responses, at least to a degree.

The skew clues come from several questions. In terms of setting the sampling parameters, the official state voter registration party preference categorization totals 32.0 percent Republican, 28.3 percent Democratic, and 39.7 percent Unaffiliated voters. Total registration is recorded at 1,099,033 individuals.

The UNH poll divides the party identification categories into two different questions. First, is the partisan-registered voter query, and this number is consistent with the official state voter reg totals. In the poll, the self-identified partisan total is 32-29-39 percent Republican, Democratic, and Unaffiliated voters.

A second “Party ID” cell segmentation, however, asks an additional question, and the responses swing toward the Democrats with a 44-41-14 percent partisan division (Democratic; Republican; Unaffiliated). It is surmised that the pollsters are attempting to see how the unaffiliateds break, which explains the partisan switch and the severe reduction from the actual number of Unaffiliated registered voters (39 percent) to those who self-identify as Unaffiliated (14 percent).

Such a partisan break is seemingly consistent with New Hampshire’s federal election results even though the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations suggest a very different pattern.

In terms of the statewide partisan lean, DRA calculates a 52.0R – 45.2D party break. While the federal delegation (two Senators, two Representatives) is unanimously Democratic, the Republicans back home enjoy a statewide trifecta (Governor; majorities in both legislative houses). Thus, the voting split between federal and state offices is diametrically opposed. Together, these points largely explain the high number of close elections seen in the state over the past few years.

Perhaps the most definitive skew clue is the reported presidential vote within the polling sample. In the 2024 election, the actual vote count found then-Vice President Kamala Harris defeating then-former President Donald Trump with a 50.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin.

According to the poll respondents the presidential break is 51-45 percent in Harris’s favor; hence, these calculations suggest the 49-43 percent Pappas swing is potentially 2-3 percentage points closer.

Rep. Pappas was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving six years on the New Hampshire Executive Council [a unique five-member panel elected in districts that retains certain veto powers over the Governor relating to budget matters and personnel appointments], four years as Hillsborough (Manchester) County Treasurer, and four years in the state House of Representatives.

Pappas, in his four US House terms, has turned what was the most volatile congressional district in the United States (from 2004 thru 2016, NH-1 had defeated more incumbents that any CD in the country), into a safe domain for himself, thus bringing some political stabilization to the eastern New Hampshire area.

John E. Sununu was elected to the 1st District US House seat in 1996 and held the position for three terms. He was elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating then-Gov. Shaheen. Six years later, Shaheen returned to challenge Sen. Sununu, and successfully unseated him. She, of course, was then re-elected in 2014 and 2020.

Assuming Sununu enters the 2026 US Senate race, and all indications suggest he will, the New Hampshire open seat moves into the highly competitive category. Without Sununu as the GOP nominee, Rep. Pappas, who adroitly has positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate long before the state’s late September 8th primary, would see a clear path toward succeeding Sen. Shaheen.

A Serious Pelosi Challenge?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

House

Saikat Chakrabarti

Saikat Chakrabarti, a Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Pelosi, who was elected to the House in 1987 after being the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure after winning a special election victory in ’87 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the US House.

Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York Rep. Joe Crowley and now believes he can engineer a similar result for himself against a Democratic Party icon.

A Chakrabarti campaign poll from Beacon Research (Sept. 12-20; 600 likely California June jungle primary voters; text and live interview) finds Rep. Pelosi leading Chakrabarti 47-34 percent. After the respondents are read push questions featuring the 85-year-old incumbent’s age and whether or not a new generation of Democratic leadership should come to power, the ballot test then flips to 44-36 percent in Chakrabarti’s favor.

Though the poll could arguably be within the realm of accuracy at this early date, the results should not be taken particularly seriously. Most importantly, we are not looking at a Democratic primary battle on June 2. Instead, California uses the top-two jungle primary system that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. The top two finishers in what is ostensibly a qualifying election then advance into the general election regardless of the percentages attained on the initial vote.

Thus, to think Rep. Pelosi would not advance into the general election under this system is absurd considering her consecutive 20 congressional election win streak from her San Francisco-anchored CD.

The general election will yield an entirely different campaign because the turnout will be much larger in the November election, which benefits the former Speaker. Thus, it will not be enough for Chakrabarti to outpace Pelosi in the lower turnout June election because both contenders would advance into the general no matter what their attained percentages.

It is already becoming clear, however, that we will see a number of intra-party challenges to aging Democratic incumbents around the country from younger candidates. Several, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH; 78 years old), and Reps. Danny Davis (D-IL; 84), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL; 81), have already announced their retirements in the face of potential challengers who said they would use the “new generation of leadership” theme.

Others looking at serious challenges and facing the same theme are Reps. John Larson (D-CT; 77) and David Scott (D-GA; 80). Other Democratic members who are 75 years old or older and are seeking re-election may have nomination challengers, but the opposition at this point does not look particularly strong. This list includes two past leadership members, Reps. Steny Hoyer, (D-MD; 86) and Jim Clyburn, (D-SC; 85), along with Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA; 87) and Frederica Wilson (D-FL; 82).

While Rep. Pelosi has filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, she has yet to formally announce her re-election candidacy. It is presumed, however, that she will seek a 21st term.

The California Congresswoman’s 11th District, fully contained on the San Francisco peninsula, is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the CA-11 partisan lean is 86.6D – 11.6R. In California, only two districts are more Democratic, and only by a point or two. The pair are the Oakland seat of freshman Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) along with two-term Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove’s (D) Los Angeles domain.

Should voters approve the proposed California redistricting map in the Nov. 4 special election, the three strongest Democratic districts will remain virtually intact. This means that Pelosi’s general election opponent will almost assuredly be a Democrat, and very likely Chakrabarti.

Assuming the former Speaker runs for re-election, the chances of Chakrabarti or any other Democrat dethroning her are minimal at best. Therefore, though an early poll such as his Beacon Research study may suggest a modicum of weakness for the long-time House member, the final vote will again return her for yet another term.

Adams Withdraws From NYC Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2025

Mayor

New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) / Photo by Marc A. Hermann, MTA via Flickr

The inevitable happened in the New York City Mayor’s race this week when the incumbent, Eric Adams, officially ended his campaign. How his withdrawal affects the race’s final month remains to be seen.

Languishing in all polling, enduring a federal indictment process from which President Trump pardoned him, unable to qualify for matching funds, and experiencing a tumultuous four years in office made the Mayor unelectable. In fact, his Democratic primary prospects were so poor that he exited the nomination race in April to run as an Independent.

Even with such a move he was unable to exceed 13 percent of the general election vote in any poll and shrunk to single digit support in the six most recent publicly released research studies from Sept. 8-22.

The New York City Mayor’s race has gained a great deal of national attention largely because the leading candidate and Democratic nominee, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria), is an avowed socialist who advocates radical ideas. He plans to create government-run grocery stores, adopt extreme rent control policies in what he says will “make New York City affordable,” and severely downsize the police force.

As we know, Mamdani defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary along with 10 others, posting 44 percent of the vote in the first round of voting. Under the city’s Ranked Choice Voting system, Mamdani exceeded the 50 percent mark in the third round, topping Cuomo 56-44 percent. The Ranked Choice system will not be used in the general election, meaning the winner can claim the office with only plurality support.

Winning with less than a majority appears to be on the horizon for Mamdani or any other potential winner. Despite his loss in the Democratic primary, Cuomo remains in the race as an Independent, or ostensibly the nominee of the Fight and Deliver Party.

The Republican nominee is perennial mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa who founded the Guardian Angels crime prevention organization in 1977 then known as the “Magnificent 13.” The unofficial citizens’ organization originally stood against violence on the New York City subway system and later expanded to citywide crime coverage. Always controversial, Sliwa summarily hosted a New York City radio show. Two other minor party candidates are also on the ballot.

The prevailing electoral analysis suggests a Mamdani plurality win, meaning the majority of voters would have chosen another candidate. Therefore, much pressure was put upon Mayor Adams to drop out since there appeared no scenario that would lead him to victory.

Now that Adams has withdrawn, that same pressure will now turn toward Sliwa, who has only performed slightly better in polling. With only an 11 percent Republican partisan registration within New York City, a Sliwa victory is highly improbable.

Seeing both Adams and Sliwa depart would create a virtual one-on-one scenario between Mamdani and Cuomo, which appears as the only scenario where the Democratic nominee could be defeated.

Yet, in prospective ballot tests without Adams, we see little movement. Earlier Mamdani-Cuomo-Sliwa polling was showing virtually no change in the size of the Democrat’s lead. In the six polls conducted from Sept. 8 to now, Mamdani averaged a consistent 44.3 percent, posting support figures of 45 percent in four of the surveys and 43 percent in the remaining two.

For his part, Cuomo averaged 25.8 percent in the six polls, almost 20 points behind the leader. Sliwa didn’t do much better than Mayor Adams. In the same half-dozen ballot test surveys, the Sliwa average was 12.8 percent, only slightly above the city Republican registration figure.

The campaign’s final month will be the determining factor, understanding that Cuomo has a great deal of ground to close. Sliwa staying in the race, as he continues to promise, suggests a Cuomo victory path becomes even smaller and allows Mamdani greater campaign latitude.

It will be interesting to see how the race concludes. Mamdani continues to enjoy momentum moving toward the general election, even in the face of what could mean a mass exodus of NYC businesses. The prevailing business community analysis believes large numbers of owners will depart because they will not be able to make a sustainable profit under new Mamdani Administration ordinances that the city may adopt.

Should we see negative economic or public safety ramifications occur once Mamdani wins the mayor’s election, expect the New York example to then be used against Democrats in many 2026 congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. At this point, even with Mayor Adams leaving the race, it appears the general election is still Mamdani’s to lose.

Weekly Political Wrap-Up:
Period Ending Sept. 26, 2025

Kansas US Congressional Districts / Click on map above, or go to govtrack.us to see interactive map.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

Senate

Kansas — The Republicans in the Kansas legislature are determining if they will call for a special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional map. The Republicans have a veto-proof majority in both chambers, so they would theoretically be able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto regarding map passage. A two-thirds vote of both houses is also required to call a special session. The GOP has the numbers, but their margin is very tight. Therefore, the situation is uncertain.

If the Republicans’ redistricting plan is successful and the lone Kansas Democratic US House member, Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park), is targeted and her 3rd CD made unwinnable for her party, the Congresswoman will forgo re-election and instead challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year.

Alabama — A former White House aide and ex-military advisor to Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has entered the state’s open Senate race. Morgan Murphy now joins Attorney General Steve Marshall and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in vying for the Republican nomination. The eventual winner is a virtual sure bet to replace Sen. Tuberville who is running for Governor instead of for re-election.

Additionally, recently retired Auburn University men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl ended speculation that he would run for the Senate with an announcement of non-candidacy.

Massachusetts — Last week, Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) said he would not challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) for renomination, but the door has apparently opened for two other House delegation members to potentially launch such a challenge. Both Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) each said they are now considering forging a Democratic primary against the Senator. Much time remains because Massachusetts has one of the latest primaries in the nation. In 2026, the Massachusetts primary vote is scheduled for Sept. 15.

New Hampshire — A new co/efficient survey (Sept. 10-12; 904 likely New Hampshire general election voters; 346 Republican primary likely voters; live interview & text) confirms that former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) entering the open New Hampshire Senate race would make the general election very competitive. According to the co/efficient ballot test, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) would lead Sununu, 46-43 percent, a virtual tie. In a Republican primary ballot test, Sununu tops former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, 40-23 percent.

Sununu was elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving three terms in the House. He defeated then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to win the Senate seat. Six years later, Shaheen returned for a re-match and unseated Sen. Sununu in the first Obama presidential election year. She won two further terms and is retiring once this Congress ends. Sununu has not been on the ballot since losing his 2008 re-election campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) has drawn a Republican opponent. While talk about Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) challenging the Senator has dissipated, state Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Fredericksburg) has now become an official candidate. The state legislator has twice run for a different office — Lieutenant Governor and the US House, but failed both times to secure the party nomination. Sen. Warner will be favored to win a fourth term next year.

House

TX-29 — Former Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson (D) said publicly that he is considering challenging Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) in the new version of the 29th District. Only 37 percent of the current 29th is in the new 29th, so Rep. Garcia’s incumbency factor would be lessened in such a Democratic primary race. The Houston-anchored seat is still solidly Democratic, so the serious action will occur in the March 3 primary.

TX-32 — Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, who in 2023 left the Democratic Party and became a Republican, confirmed he is considering entering the newly created 32nd Congressional District that covers part of Dallas before stretching into east Texas. Current incumbent Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is most likely to seek re-election in the Democratic 33rd CD as opposed to what will become a Republican 32nd District. Before winning election as Mayor, Johnson served four terms in the state House of Representatives as a Democrat. He is ineligible to seek a third term as Mayor in 2027.

Governor

California — A surprising California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) was released during the week providing bad news to Sen. Alex Padilla (D). The Senator is reportedly considering entering the open Governor’s race.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only a 16 percent preference figure. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote, former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (8 percent). Sen. Alex Padilla (D) is next posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator.

Another gubernatorial entry has emerged. Former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (D) announced that he will join the crowded Governor’s primary calling for “a new generation of leadership.” Calderon is 40 years of age. The former four-term Assemblyman’s father, Charles Calderon (D), served in the state Senate and Assembly. He was elected Majority Leader in both chambers during his legislative career.

Minnesota — While Gov. Tim Walz (D) is now officially running for a third term, a new poll suggests he is in a battle for re-election. SurveyUSA, polling for Twin Cities television station KSTP (Sept. 15-18; 568 likely Minnesota voters) finds former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen (R) trailing Gov. Walz by only a 46-41 percent margin.

The poll results also found Gov. Walz with a 47:47 percent job approval rating that features only 20 percent strongly approving and 34 percent strongly disapproving. The Governor and former Vice-Presidential nominee also fares poorly in southern Minnesota, a region he represented in the US House, and with Independents. Thus, the early polling suggests the 2026 Minnesota Governor’s race will be in the competitive realm.

Oklahoma — State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters (R), who has had a controversial tenure but is a champion of the Republican Party’s right flank, announced his resignation to accept a job running a non-profit education organization. He was considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. The move is a boon to Attorney General Gentner Drummond who appears to be the leading GOP candidate for the party nomination. Becoming the Republican standard bearer is tantamount to winning the general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Virginia — A series of three September polls all find former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by spreads beyond the polling margin of error. Pulse Decision Science (Sept. 3-5; 512 likely Virginia voters) posts Spanberger to a 48-43 percent edge. Christopher Newport University (Sept. 8-14; 808 registered Virginia voters) sees the Spanberger lead larger at 52-40 percent. Finally, in the most recently released survey, co/efficient (Set. 22-23; 1,024 likely Virginia voters) finds a result closer to the Pulse Decision study, 49-43 percent, also in Spanberger’s favor.

From the three data organizations that track and average poll results, Real Clear Politics, Decision Desk HQ, and Race to the White House, all see Spanberger leading in an average range falling between 7.3 percentage points (Real Clear Politics) and 9.4 (Race to the White House). The Virginia election is Nov. 4, so political prime time is now fully underway.

Wisconsin — Badger State Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) announced late this week that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.

The move had been expected, and Rep. Tiffany’s chances of winning the Republican primary so far against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien are good. Tiffany’s strong conservative record gives him the inside track in attracting backing from right of center political organizations which have proven important in Republican primaries.

Democrats who have announced their own gubernatorial campaigns are Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not standing for a third term. We can expect to see a toss-up open seat gubernatorial election here next year.

City & State

Boston — After suffering a better than 3:1 negative showing in the September jungle primary, businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, has withdrawn from the Nov. 4 Mayoral general election. This means that Mayor Michelle Wu (D) has won a second term in that she is now unopposed in the regular election.

Rep. Tiffany Announces for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

Governor

Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua)

Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has announced that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.

The move had been expected, and Rep. Tiffany’s chances of winning the Republican primary so far against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien are good. Tiffany’s strong conservative record gives him the inside track in attracting backing from right of center political organizations which have proven important in Republican primaries.

Democrats who have announced their own gubernatorial campaigns are Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not standing for a third term.

The Tiffany move opens the state’s northwestern 7th Congressional District, a seat that occupies most of northern Wisconsin’s land area and is dotted with small towns and lakes. WI-7 contains 21 counties and parts of five others.

The district’s largest population hub is the city of Wausau, with a population of just under 40,000 residents. The town of Superior with almost 27,000 inhabitants lies at the southwestern tip of Lake Superior and across the water from Duluth, Minnesota. The vast district then stretches east along Michigan’s Upper Peninsula border before turning south and moving to the outskirts of Chippewa Falls.

The partisan lean for CD-7 is 57.0R – 40.8D. President Trump carried the district in all three of his campaigns and scored a 60.5 – 38.0 percent victory in his latest campaign against Kamala Harris.

There are currently 32 open races when including the recent announced retirements of Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) and Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) in Texas in addition to Tiffany now running for Governor. Recently filling seats in special elections are Democrats James Walkinshaw (D-VA) and Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), the latter just this week from southern Arizona’s 7th District.

Though the number of open seats remains consistent when factoring the retirements and special elections, the political landscape is different. What changes is the partisan complexion.

With the aforementioned latest developments, we now see 19 current Republican-held open seats as compared to just 10 from the Democratic Conference. Three new redistricting created seats in Texas have no incumbents. Two seats, TN-7 and TX-18, remain vacant pending special elections. A total of seven open seats lie in Texas alone.

Wisconsin’s 7th District has a long tradition of electing Republican House members. The lone Democratic exception since the 1892 election — but with a very long tenure — is former Congressman and House Appropriations Committee chairman David Obey who retired after the 2010 election. He was initially elected in a 1969 special election.

The seat reverted to the Republicans in the 2010 election when Sean Duffy, the current US Transportation Secretary, converted the 7th to the GOP column. Duffy resigned before the 2020 election, thus leading to Tiffany succeeding him in the House.

We can expect to see a crowded Republican primary field form that will undoubtedly feature a number of state legislators and county elected officials. It is likely that none of the candidates will begin the campaign with district-wide name identification. Therefore, we can expect a close Republican primary that won’t be settled until Aug. 11.

Democrats will field a credible nominee, but the region’s recent voting history and the favorable Republican draw on the current redistricting map will give the eventual GOP nominee the inside track toward winning the general election and beginning a career in the House of Representatives.