Category Archives: Senate

More Texas News in the Spotlight:
Latest Senate, Redistricting Updates

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s US Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay.

Senate

Texas state flag

Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas US Senate poll that supports the common political supposition pertaining to the Lone Star State Senate race. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election.

In this poll, Sen. Cornyn leads Allred 47-40 percent and Talarico by a similar 46-40 percent split, both beyond the polling margin of error. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Allred would lead 44-43 percent, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44 percent.

The third announced Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), was not tested, nor was Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) on the Democratic side. Crockett has been leading in other Texas Democratic statewide primary polls but has not yet made a decision about whether to enter the Senate race.

The latest judicial redistricting ruling from the El Paso three-judge panel suggests Rep. Crockett may stay in the House since the 2025 Texas map invalidation restores her 30th Congressional District to its previous boundaries.

According to Ragnar Research partner Chris Perkins, who conducted this poll, wrote “John Cornyn is the strongest candidate for Republicans in a general election, as he has a clear lead. Paxton is statistically tied with either of the Democrat candidates and jeopardizes the ability of Republicans to hold the seat.”

The Texas Senate race is one of the key focal points of the 2026 election cycle. It will be perhaps the only Senate contest that features a contested primary in both parties along with a highly competitive general election.

Redistricting

Fifth District Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith, a member of the three-judge panel that invalidated the 2025 Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander over his objection, published a scathing dissent to the ruling. In his document, Judge Smith referred to lead Judge Jeffrey Brown’s decision as “the most blatant exercise of judicial activism that I have ever witnessed.” Judge Smith stated that he has been a federal judge for 37 years.

The dissent opinion begins by saying that, “the main winners from Judge Brown’s opinion are George Soros and Gavin Newsom. The obvious losers are the People of Texas and the Rule of Law.”

Throughout a 104-page document, Judge Smith details 11 different examples of how ruling that the 2025 Texas map is a racial gerrymander is either “false, misleading, deeply misleading, or deceptive.”

The state of Texas has already appealed, asking that the current ruling be stayed. Appealing a three-judge panel decision goes directly to the US Supreme Court and an official answer must be rendered. The justice assigned to oversee the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, in which Texas resides, is Samuel Alito. The justices have the individual power to issue stays on cases from the circuits in which they oversee.

If Justice Alito were to grant a stay on the Brown panel redistricting ruling, the 2025 map would return as the official Texas map. With candidate filing closing on Dec. 8, a quick ruling on the stay motion is imperative since the two maps are radically different in 11 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts.

New North Carolina Senate Data

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

Senate

A new Harper Polling survey of North Carolina likely voters produced positive numbers for Democrats, but other factors suggest the open Senate race is far from over.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (R)

Harper projects former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) to a lead beyond the polling margin of error for the 2026 Senate race. The underlying numbers, however, suggest that the Tar Heel State electorate could again generate another of its typically close finishes on Election Day.

The Harper Polling survey, conducted for the Carolina Journal online news site (Nov. 9-10; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters; live interview & online), finds Cooper posting a 47-39 percent lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley (R). The North Carolina open Senate race is one of only two competitive Senate campaigns — Ohio being the other — that already sees its general election pairing because currently neither party is hosting a seriously competitive nomination battle.

Clearly, the Democrats have successfully recruited their best candidate. Roy Cooper has won six statewide races, two as Governor and four as Attorney General including the 2012 contest when he was unopposed. There was some speculation that Cooper would eschew a Senate run to enter the 2028 presidential contest, but apparently the national party leadership was able to convince him to stay home and attempt to flip the Senate majority.

Cooper’s 2020 re-election race, however, was an underperformance, thus giving Republicans a potential area of weakness to probe. While being considered a heavy favorite for re-election to a second term, he only won with a 51-47 percent margin over then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R).

In mid to latter October of 2020, four polls were conducted in the state and then-Gov. Cooper led by an average of just below 13 percentage points. Yet, he only won with a four-point spread. That year, however, the turnout model favored the North Carolina Republicans as both President Trump and Sen. Thom Tillis (R) carried the state by small margins.

There are several further points to consider about the current Harper Polling survey. First, the eight-point Democratic spread is not particularly unusual for an early North Carolina poll. The state typically over-polls for Democrats, at least by two percentage points, which partially accounts for the Cooper margin in this poll.

Secondly, an unusually high 54 percent of the polling universe is female, which again pushes the ballot test toward the Democratic candidate.

Third, though not tested, Whatley’s name identification is obviously low. The evidence comes from the second ballot test question that pitted retired Navy JAG officer and author Don Brown (R), who has no statewide presence, against Cooper. Brown’s chances of winning the Republican nomination are virtually nil, so testing him against Cooper provides a base GOP benchmark.

In the Cooper-Brown ballot test, the Democratic former Governor leads by a similar 48-38 percent. The fact that Whatley and Brown post similar numbers and deficit margins is an indication that the Whatley name ID is low, thus his support level reverts to a benchmark figure.

Moreover, there are warning signs detected for all Republicans from this survey. The national right track-wrong track question that tests attitude shows 55 percent of the Harper, North Carolina respondents believe the country is on the wrong track. When asked the same about the state of North Carolina, 48 percent answered wrong track.

While these numbers are an improvement over what we were seeing during the end of the Biden Administration, they are not positive for the Trump presidency and largely confirms some of the trends we saw in the Nov. 4 elections from New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City.

Another warning sign for Republicans, and the heart of the negative trend, is the impression of today’s economy. Among these respondents, 58 percent said they are not confident about the economy as compared with 40 percent who said they are.

HP also asked an interesting question to better understand how the respondents feel about the economy. They found that 67 percent said they are planning to spend less for the upcoming holidays compared to only 14 percent who say they will spend more.

Finally, and still pertaining to the economy, the tariff policy is not popular with this North Carolina polling sample. A total of 53 percent said the tariffs hurt the national economy versus 38 percent who believe they help.

This poll, in a state that more often than not votes Republican by small margins, again highlights the economy as the most difficult issue the GOP candidates face.

Unless they can tell an improved story about how the Administration’s policies are improving everyone’s lifestyle especially when remembering that President Trump predicted his policies will create a “roaring American economy,” then the 2026 election results could well reflect the recent Nov. 4 electoral outcome.

NJ Rep. Coleman to Retire; Rogers Up in Michigan; Allred Down in Texas

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025

A congressional retirement announcement from New Jersey, ex-US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) taking the lead in a new Michigan Senate general election poll, and a Texas Senate survey that finds 2024 US Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred again trailing in the Democratic primary, are outlined in this round up. These are the top political stories coming from the early part of the Veterans Day weekend. Also, overnight, Republican House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (TX-19) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026. Arrington has served for nearly a decade in the US House. More on his retirement in an upcoming post.

NJ-12

New Jersey Rep. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ-12)

Yesterday, saying “it’s time to pass the torch,” six-term Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), 80, announced that she will not seek re-election next year.

Prior to her election to the US House in 2014, she served 17 years in the New Jersey General Assembly, four years as Majority Leader. From 2002-06, Watson Coleman chaired the New Jersey Democratic Party.

The Garden State’s 12th District, which includes the capital city of Trenton, Princeton University; and North, East, and South Brunswick; is reliably Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 56.5D – 43.5R partisan lean.

The central New Jersey district was at one time a Republican domain but redistricting and a change in voting patterns have yielded Democratic representation since the beginning of 1999. Therefore, Rep. Watson Coleman’s successor will almost assuredly come from winning what promises to be a hotly contested Democratic primary.

The Watson Coleman retirement means 39 seats will be open in 2026, not counting the CDs headed to special elections in Tennessee and Texas, along with New Jersey’s 11th District seat when Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) resigns from the House.

From the group of 2026 open seat members, Rep. Watson Coleman becomes the 15th Democrat not to seek re-election and the 11th to retire from politics. The other 28 are seeking a different office or moving to a congressional district other than the one they currently represent.

Michigan Senate

The Rosetta Stone polling organization released the results of an independent poll that finds Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers polling ahead of all three Democratic US Senate contenders.

Rogers, who served seven terms in the House before retiring, returned to enter elective politics with his run for the Senate in 2024. In an open-seat battle with then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), Rogers came within 19,006 votes from just under 5.6 million votes cast of winning the race, a percentage margin of 48.6 – 48.3.

The Rosetta Stone poll, released over the weekend, (Oct. 23-25; 637 likely Michigan general election voters) finds Rogers, who is virtually unopposed for the Republican nomination, ahead beyond the polling margin of error individually against each of the Democrats: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Opposite Rep. Stevens, Rogers leads 47-40 percent. If Sen. McMorrow was his opponent, the Rogers edge would be a similar 46-39 percent. The Rogers’ advantage grows if El-Sayed becomes his general election opponent. Under this scenario, the former Congressman posts a 45-31 percent margin.

Other polls have shown this race much closer, but this is the first publicly released statewide poll since June.

Rosetta Stone tested the Democratic Senate primary, but the sample size of only 287 likely Democratic primary voters indicates the results should be considered statistically insignificant in a state the size of Michigan.

Texas Senate

New polling in the Texas Senate Democratic primary again shows trouble for 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred.

The Impact Research survey conducted for the James Talarico Senate campaign (Oct. 23-29; 836 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds state Rep. Talarico taking a 48-42 percent lead over Allred.

In a late September survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, the academic pollsters found Allred lagging in last place if the Democratic field consisted of he, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), former El Paso Rep. and statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke, and state Rep. Talarico. For her part, Rep. Crockett says she is considering the Senate race. Crockett has led several Democratic statewide polls.

It has been known for some time that the Republican Senate primary would be a hard-fought contest between four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and recently entered Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Now, however, analyzing the available polling data leads to the conclusion that the Democratic primary appears just as competitive as the Republican contest.

Surprising Maine Polling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

Senate

Graham Platner

A just released University of New Hampshire’s Pine Tree State Poll (Oct. 16-21; 1,094 Maine residents; 1,015 likely Maine voters; 510 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) delivers some unexpected ballot test results in two key Maine races.

The biggest surprise is how badly Gov. Janet Mills fares in a Democratic gubernatorial primary. Gov. Mills recently announced for Senate after being the top recruit prospect for the national Democratic leadership. Yet, in this UNH poll, she trails businessman Graham Platner by a whopping 58-24 percent clip.

Platner is the choice of the party’s Bernie Sanders wing and carries the Vermont Senator’s endorsement. The poll was conducted, however, before damaging information came to light against Platner including the presence of a skull and crossbones tattoo on his chest, which has been tied to Nazi police, and past disparaging remarks made about key Democratic constituencies. Chances are good that the next released Maine survey will show Platner substantially falling.

Irrespective of Platner’s current standing, Gov. Mills performs poorly against a first-time candidate within her own party. While the Governor records a favorable personal approval index (65:16 favorable to unfavorable), she managed to post only a 24 percent vote preference on the related ballot test before the same Democratic sampling universe. This is largely due to her poor job approval rating of 43:55 percent favorable to unfavorable.

The pollsters apparently did not test the general election featuring Sen. Susan Collins (R) individually against the Democrats, but the fact that Gov. Mills fares this poorly in her own primary suggests her standing statewide would be below par.

House

The second surprise comes in the state’s 2nd Congressional District where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is facing a challenge from former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R).

While other polls have found the two locked in a virtual dead heat, the UNH data sees LePage pulling five points ahead of the four-term incumbent, 49-44 percent, which is beyond the stated polling margin of error for this survey (plus or minus 3.1 percent).

From the LePage perspective, the ballot test result should not be considered an unusually positive outlier. In his three statewide races – 2 victories and 1 defeat, the latter at the hands of Gov. Mills in 2022 – LePage carried the 2nd District. Additionally, ME-2 is the most Republican district in the country where the electorate sends a Democrat to the US House.

What is troubling for Rep. Golden and his allies are the responses to the re-elect questions. When asked if Rep. Golden deserves to be re-elected, only 26 percent answered affirmatively while 57 percent said no.

Most of the negative number comes from Republicans, 75 percent of whom said Rep. Golden does not deserve re-election. Such is to be expected, however, in this age of political polarization. A major negative for the Golden camp, however, is that 66 percent of Independents and more than a third (36 percent) of Democrats also say the Congressman “doesn’t deserve re-election.”

The fundraising totals favor Rep. Golden, however. The Congressman has raised over $2.3 million for his 2026 campaign and holds just under $1.7 million cash-on-hand. LePage has attracted $917,000 for the campaign and holds less than half of Golden’s treasury figure at $716,000.

The ME-2 race will be a national campaign and one of the Republicans’ top conversion opportunities. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that LePage will correct the resource imbalance as compared to Rep. Golden’s financial totals either through enhanced national fundraising or with non-connected outside groups coming into the northern Maine district to aid the former Governor’s congressional efforts.

It is clear that both the Maine Senate and 2nd District House campaigns will draw a great deal of national attention during 2026 political prime time. Both eventual winners will be significant players in determining which party will control the legislative power levers in the 120th Congress.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

Senate

Continuing from yesterday’s update, the Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers, which help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 US Senate contests. Today’s installment covers the most competitive contests from Massachusetts through Texas.

Massachusetts

Just in the past week we see a Democratic primary emerging between Bay State Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). Both men have equivalent cash reserves ($2.7M for Markey; Moulton: $2.1M) but it is clear that Sen. Markey begins as the favorite.

Rep. Moulton will try to make the incumbent’s age (Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the next election) an issue, but it is unlikely that such an attack will dissuade a majority of Democrats from voting for the veteran politician who first came to Congress in 1976.

This primary challenge is a very long shot but the Massachusetts primary cycle is lengthy, and much can change. The nomination election is not scheduled until Sept. 1, 2026.

Michigan

The open Michigan Senate race will be one of the top national contests next year. Republicans have successfully given former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers a clear path to the nomination which helps solve one of their key past problem areas: fundraising. The fact that Rogers does not have to spend much to secure the nomination means virtually all fundraising assets will be directly applied to the general election. At this point, Rogers holds $2.7 million in his campaign account.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are embroiled in a tough primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4. The three major candidates have equivalent resources. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) holds $2.6 million, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) reports $1.4 million cash-on-hand, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed has also proven himself a strong fundraiser. His campaign account reports $1.8 in available resources.

The Democratic primary is a toss-up at this point. Expect a tough campaign before a nominee is crowned and financial resources will be exhausted. Democrats are adept fundraisers, however, so the winner’s campaign treasury will be quickly replenished after the party unites post-primary.

Minnesota

The Land of 10,000 Lakes also features a competitive Democratic Senate primary. In this case, the candidates are vying to replace the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Today, it appears the nomination contest is evolving into a two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

In Minnesota, the state political party endorsements are very influential. Usually, a candidate not obtaining the party endorsement withdraws from the race but is not required to do so. For this Senate primary, it is likely that both of these candidates will advance into the Aug. 11 primary irrespective of the party endorsement process.

According to third quarter (Q3) financial reports, Craig has a significant fundraising advantage. She posts $2.9 million cash-on-hand as compared to just under $836,000 for Lt. Gov. Flanagan.

Nebraska

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn became the election cycle’s surprise Senate candidate when he took several polling leads over Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer claimed a six-point win, but Osborn’s strong fundraising effort and populist appeal turned what should have been an easy Fischer win into a competitive contest.

Now, Osborn returns for another Senate campaign, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Once again, Osborn is likely to enjoy Democratic Party official support; therefore, the party won’t field its own candidate. Sen. Ricketts is still a strong favorite, but this contest is likely to again draw national attention.

The Q3 financial disclosure reports show Sen. Ricketts holding $1.2 million in his campaign account while Osborn posts just under $517,000.

New Hampshire

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has successfully defined himself as the consensus party candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

Republicans are likely to soon see a new entry, possibly later this week. Former Sen. John E. Sununu, the son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu, is likely to enter the campaign very soon. At this point, the leading Republican is former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown.

Early polling puts Sununu in position to tighten the race against Rep. Pappas, while the Congressman appears poised to easily defeat Brown. Rep. Pappas reports $2.6 million in his campaign account as compared to just under $803,000 for Brown. Since Sununu is not an official candidate, he is not yet required to file a disclosure report.

North Carolina

In what promises to be one of the defining national Senatorial contests, the general election candidates in the Tar Heel State are unofficially set: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley are virtually unopposed for their respective nominations.

Cooper has a major fundraising advantage. He already holds $8.6 million in his campaign account. Whatley, who started later, has just $1.1 million. Expect this race to go down to the wire. All North Carolina statewide races are tight, and this one will be no exception.

Ohio

The Ohio special election is another race where the general election is virtually set. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) will run to serve the final two years of the current term. Opposing him will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in 2024.

This will be an expensive race, since then-Sen. Brown raised over $100 million for his last campaign. At this point, Brown has $5.9 million in cash-on-hand. Sen. Husted posts a similar $5 million. While Sen. Husted has the advantage because Ohio has been moving decidedly rightward in recent elections, we can count on seeing a very competitive contest here next year.

Texas

The Texas Senate situation has recently changed. With Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) joining the Senate Republican primary, the race is no longer solely a battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The chances of the Republicans heading to a post-primary runoff are now high.

For the Democrats, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred is no longer a lock for the 2026 party nomination. Polling shows him dropping. Announced candidate James Talarico, an Austin state Representative, is making significant gains. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), while not an announced candidate, is the clear polling leader. Not only is the Republican primary in a state of flux, but now the Democratic nomination battle is as well.

On the financial front, Sen. Cornyn is the strongest among all candidates. He holds $6.0 million in his campaign account, which compares favorably against AG Paxton ($3.2M) and Rep. Hunt ($1.5M).

For the Democrats, it is Talarico who possesses the most money at $4.9 million. Rep. Crockett, again not officially in the race, has $4.8 million, and Allred finds himself trailing in this category too, with $1.8 million. In 2024, Allred was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the country.

The Texas Senate race will be a race to watch from the March 3 primary until the campaign concludes on Election Day, Nov. 4, 2026.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

Senate

The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers and today we begin to preview the resource standing of the key 2026 statewide contests. This Update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, we’ll look at Michigan through Texas.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for Governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will be the determinative election. Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and retired Navy SEAL Jared Hudson are the major contenders.

Hudson has $357,000 cash-on-hand, while Marshall and Moore each have just over $555,000 in their campaign accounts. It is probable the May 19 primary will end with no candidate having majority support. If such is the case, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

Florida

Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) must run in 2026 to fill the final two years of the current term. At the end of third quarter 2025, she held $3.6 million cash-on-hand.

The most credible Democrat appears to be technology company executive Hector Mujica. He just announced his candidacy last week; therefore, he is not yet required to file a campaign financial disclosure report. Former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), who has tried and failed several times to win statewide office, holds only $127,000 in his campaign account.

Sen. Moody has won two statewide elections as state Attorney General. In a state turning safely Republican, she is favored to hold her seat.

Georgia

First-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is the 2026 election cycle’s leading fundraiser, having raised more than $54 million. From the gross receipts total, he holds $21.3 million in his account.

The Republicans are headed for a competitive primary, which will likely culminate in a June runoff. Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and Mike Collins (R-Jackson) along with former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of former University of Georgia legendary coach Vince Dooley, are the top contenders.

Rep. Carter has done best on the fundraising circuit and holds just under $4 million in his campaign account. Rep. Collins has $2.3 million, and Dooley, $1.7 million.

The Republicans’ collective problem is their candidates will have to spend heavily just to win the nomination while Sen. Ossoff can continue to build in unopposed fashion for the general election. Irrespective of who becomes the Republican nominee, the general election promises to evolve into a tight finish.

Illinois

Retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) leaves a contested March Democratic primary in his wake, one that will effectively elect the state’s next Senator.

At this point, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) has a commanding lead in fundraising and polling. According to the third quarter FEC report, he has raised just under $25 million and holds a touch over $18 million in the bank.

His two major opponents, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton, are well behind in cash-on-hand. Rep. Kelly reports $2 million in available funds and Stratton just under $1 million. This means that Rep. Krishnamoorthi enjoys a respective 9:1 and 18:1 cash advantage over his two main opponents.

Kentucky

Without Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Senate race, the May Republican primary for all intents and purposes will determine retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor.

Three candidates are vying for the nomination: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. Norris has already been spending heavily and running attack ads, particularly against Rep. Barr.

While Cameron enjoys significant polling leads, it is Rep. Barr who is in the best financial position. He holds $6.7 million in his federal campaign account, while Cameron has just under $630,000. Morris, who is self-financing, reported $1 million at the Sept. 30 disclosure deadline.

Louisiana

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) may have dodged his toughest general election opponent (former Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) last week announced he would not run for the Senate), but the same can’t be said for the new partisan Republican primary. Louisiana changed its election law, so instead of a jungle primary in November, we will see an April 18 primary followed by a May 30 runoff election if no one reaches the majority support level in the first vote.

At the end of last week, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, announced her Senate candidacy. This very likely means that Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) will not run, as the two were unlikely to oppose each other. Already in the race are State Treasurer, former Deputy White House chief of staff and ex-Congressman John Fleming; state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia); and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.

Sen. Cassidy is well ahead in fundraising, but President Trump clearly wants to settle a political score with him since the Louisianan was one of seven Republican Senators to vote for impeachment regarding the January 6 US Capitol controversy. Only two of those seven, Sens. Cassidy and Susan Collins, will be on the ballot in 2026. Four are no longer members — Sens. Ben Sasse (NE), Richard Burr (NC), Pat Toomey (PA), and Mitt Romney (UT). Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is not in-cycle but is at least a potential gubernatorial candidate.

In terms of fundraising, Sen. Cassidy posts $9.5 million in cash-on-hand. This compares to Sen. Miguez’s $2.5 million and Fleming’s $2.1 million. Rep. Emerson and Skrmetta are not yet required to file disclosure reports.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) overcame $60 million of spending against her in 2020 and can expect another difficult campaign next year. She is well prepared, with $6.7 million in the bank.

Her principal opponent will be Gov. Janet Mills (D), who just announced her candidacy last week. Like several others in this report, the Governor is not yet required to file a financial disclosure report.

Expect this race to be hot all the way through November and will carry at toss-up rating.

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton
To Challenge Sen. Ed Markey

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 20, 2025

Seante

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem)

Six-term Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) made a major announcement late last week officially challenging Sen. Ed Markey (D) in next year’s Democratic primary.

Though recent political stories have indicated that this race might come to fruition, it is still a surprising move. The challenge from Rep. Moulton’s perspective appears to be a long shot considering Sen. Markey dispatched a member of the Kennedy family in the 2020 Democratic primary with a decisive margin in come-from-behind fashion.

The Massachusetts primary is not until Sept. 1 of next year, so much time remains for this campaign to develop, but Rep. Moulton begins in a severe underdog position. The Congressman, with his strong military background, is known as a more moderate member and one who was even drawing his own congressional seat primary opposition because he defied his party’s position on the men in women’s sports issue after his daughters found themselves facing transgender athletic opponents.

Attempting to move left, Moulton immediately after announcing for the Senate rejected the support and money given to him from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) even though he has been a supporter of the group during his entire tenure in the House.

Running in a closed Democratic primary from one of the party’s strongest states that has repeatedly elected liberal Senate stalwarts such as Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Elizabeth Warren, and now Markey, the Moulton victory path appears very narrow. In an open primary, he might draw crossover Republican and Independent votes to neutralize the hard left faction within the Massachusetts Democratic Party, but without such an option Moulton could soon find his task overwhelming.

In 2020, Sen. Markey faced a similar primary challenge from then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, III. In that election, Sen. Markey trailed in early polling but used his veteran political experience to build a winning coalition. In the end, he scored a 55-45 percent victory over a member of the Kennedy family in their home state.

In that 2020 race, the Markey strategy revolved around drawing on his years of experience and coalition building particularly through the climate change issue of which he was a national leader and spokesman. He was even able to recruit Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) to come to Massachusetts to campaign for him since Markey was her climate change counterpart in the Senate. Against Rep. Moulton, Sen. Markey will again reconstruct his ideological coalition, which should translate into another victory.

In Democratic primaries around the country, we are already seeing younger politicians challenging veteran incumbents and using the age issue as a contrast point. We can expect Rep. Moulton, who is 47 years old, to draw the generational contrast with Sen. Markey since he would be 86 years old if he secures and finishes another term. At this point, however, it appears ideology will top age.

Sen. Markey is far from being a Massachusetts political novice. He was first elected to the state House of Representatives in 1972 and won his congressional seat in 1976. He would stay in the House until then-Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) was appointed US Secretary of State in the second Obama Administration. Rep. Markey entered the special US Senate election and his effort proved victorious in 2013.

Rep. Moulton will leave his 6th Congressional District seat open in the 2026 election, and already three Democrats have said they will run. Former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, ex-Andover Selectman and 2018 3rd District congressional candidate Dan Koh, and attorney Kevin Larivee all announced their congressional bids.

The MA-6 open means there are currently 35 such seats headed into the next election. Of those, two are headed to special elections: TN-7 on December 2nd and TX-18 concurrent with the municipal election day of Nov. 4. From the 35, a total of 21 seats are currently Republican held and Democrats are risking 11, while three new seats were created from the Texas redistricting map.