Category Archives: Senate

Peltola Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Senate

Former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) announces her Senate candidacy in this Facebook post.

Reports from last week suggesting that former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) was seriously considering running for the Senate this year have proven correct. Peltola, defeated for re-election to the House in 2024, announced Tuesday that she will challenge two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan later this year.

Though the Senate race was always on the table for Peltola, her decision to jump into this challenger contest is still a bit surprising. Considering the crowded Republican field running in the open Governor’s campaign, it appeared that Peltola would be assured of qualifying for the general election with a reasonable chance of winning the Governorship against possibly three Republicans advancing from the state’s unique top four primary system. Peltola’s chance improves even further when such a scenario advances to the Ranked Choice Voting round, through which she won her two congressional races.

The Alaska electoral system features an August jungle qualifying election where all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. The top four finishers then advance into the general election. If no candidate receives majority support, the Ranked Choice Voting rounds begin.

The top four/Ranked Choice Voting system was challenged at the ballot box in 2024 through a voter initiative and survived by just 664 votes in the statewide tabulation. System opponents have again filed for another run at repealing the system and it appears enough signatures have been filed to qualify for the 2026 ballot. Even if the repeal proponents are successful in the ‘26 election, however, the top four process will still be in effect for the present cycle.

Though polling is already showing a Sullivan-Peltola Senate race to be a virtual toss-up, such is not surprising at this point in the election cycle. It is common to see the Alaska Democratic candidates consistently polling better early than they actually perform when votes are counted on election day.

For example, in the 2020 presidential race, President Trump appeared to be in a dead heat with future President Joe Biden in the Last Frontier, but the Republican ended with a secure 10-point win. In the 2024 congressional race, then-Rep. Peltola led Republican Nick Begich III by 9-14 percentage points in early polling before losing in a 51-49 percent Ranked Choice Voting final.

While Sen. Sullivan should still be regarded as the favorite for re-election, Peltola’s candidacy certainly makes the Senate race competitive. Looking at the rest of the country, we now see eight states where voters will decide a potentially tight Senate election.

In addition to Alaska, Republicans will be defending key Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas, while Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. For Democrats to reach a majority status of 51 Senate seats in this election, they would have to win seven of these eight hotly contested campaigns.

While the Peltola candidacy in Alaska puts another Republican Senate state in play for the Democrats, the party chances of capturing the majority in 2026 are still slim, but they may lessen the current 53-47 GOP margin.

The Senate Open Races

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 8, 2026

The Senate Opens

Wyoming first-term Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R)

With Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) announcing her retirement at the end of last year, Wyoming becomes the ninth state to host an open 2026 US Senate race. As we begin 2026, we take a brief look at each open contest.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is leaving the Senate to run for Governor. His replacement will almost assuredly come from the Republican primary. The leading candidates are Attorney General Steve Marshall, US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and anti-human trafficking activist and ex-Navy SEAL Jared Hudson. Marshall is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position. This race could turn into an interesting three-way campaign since early polling projects different leaders.

Illinois

Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) is retiring and leaves a three-way party primary battling for the right to succeed him. The three contenders are Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg).

From the beginning, Rep. Krishnamoorthi has held a large lead in polling and certainly fundraising. At this point less than three months before the March 17 primary, Rep. Krishnamoorthi looks to be the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination and to win the seat in the general election.

Iowa

Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after two terms, and three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) appears as the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination. Democrats are poised to make a run for the seat even though their nominee will be a decided underdog.

Reports last week indicate that Democratic Party leaders favor state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), thinking he would be the strongest candidate to oppose Rep. Hinson. Also vying for the party nomination are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), former state legislators Bob Krause and Richard Sherzan, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage.

Kentucky

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) is retiring after serving what will be seven six-year terms. Without Gov. Andy Beshear in the Senate race for the Democrats, the battle to succeed Sen. McConnell will be fought in the Republican primary. There, we see a three-way race among former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), and wealthy businessman Nate Morris.

Cameron, despite losing the 2023 general election to Gov. Beshear, leads Barr and Morris in polling but the Congressman has a multi-million-dollar advantage over Cameron in cash resources. Morris is independently wealthy and has been advertising early. Polling, however, shows he has little momentum.

For the Democrats, we will see a primary rematch from the 2020 race between former Marine Corps officer Amy McGrath and then-state Rep. Charles Booker. Kentucky’s Republican nature suggests that the eventual GOP nominee, likely either Rep. Barr or Cameron, will be a clear favorite in the general election.

Michigan

Michigan is one of two open Senate races projected as highly competitive in the general election. In this case, Republicans have a chance to convert a Democratic seat. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who faces only a Michigan Republican Party former officer and minor candidates is a prohibitive favorite for the party nomination on Aug. 4. Rogers came within 19,006 votes of winning the 2024 Senate race and now is well positioned for the 2026 campaign.

The Democrats are embroiled in a tight three-way campaign for the party nomination among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. All three have raised into seven figures and are running close in early polling.

Rogers advantage is that his eventual Democratic opponent will have come through a tough primary late in the cycle. This race is likely to be in toss-up mode all the way through the November election.

Minnesota

Sen. Tina Smith (D) surprisingly announced her retirement early in 2025, and leaves in her wake a two-way Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). Flanagan is staking out the left flank of the Democratic Party, while Rep. Craig is positioning herself as more business friendly.

Under the Minnesota system, the state political party convention through delegate voting grants pre-primary endorsements. Typically, the candidates adhere to the endorsement process and don’t force primaries. It appears, however, this Senate election will advance to an Aug. 11 primary irrespective of the party convention action.

Republicans hope to recruit former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya into the race. Regardless of a potential Tafoya candidacy, the eventual Democratic nominee will have the advantage in the general election.

New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring after three terms. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has adroitly transformed himself into the consensus Democratic nominee.

Former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), who lost to Shaheen in 2008 after defeating her in 2002, is competing for the nomination and looks to face former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown. Sununu is likely to win the Republican nomination. Rep. Pappas will only be a slight favorite after the late Sept. 8 primary election. Clearly, the Republicans having a Sununu family member on the ballot gives the party a fighting chance to convert the seat.

North Carolina

Though both parties feature multiple candidates vying for their respective open US Senate nominations, each looks to already have their general election candidate.

For the Democrats in the second open race that will be highly competitive in the general election, former two-term Governor and previous four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper looks to be a lock for his party’s nomination. On the Republican side, former Republican National Committee and ex-North Carolina Republican Party chairman Michael Whatley is in the driver’s seat to clinch a general election ballot position.

The North Carolina race promises to feature a hotly contested campaign immediately after the general election begins on March 4 and will carry through to the November vote. The Tar Heel State always features tight elections, and the 2026 US Senate campaign will be no exception. Democrats certainly have a viable opportunity to convert this seat.

Wyoming

Late last year, Sen. Lummis announced that she would not seek a second term, which opens the safe Republican Wyoming seat. With Gov. Mark Gordon (R) term-limited and unlikely to run for the Senate, all eyes are on at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to decide if she will run for Governor, Senate, or re-election. Once she makes a decision, the Wyoming political musical chairs will begin.

At this point, it is unclear who will run where, but the Republicans will hold the seat. We may have to wait awhile, however, to see how this political situation unfolds. The candidate filing deadline is not until May 29 for the associated Aug. 18 primary election.

Walz Out, Klobuchar In?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) yesterday announced that he is ending his bid for a third gubernatorial term and, perhaps more surprisingly, veteran US Senator and former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar (D) is reportedly seriously considering entering what will now be an open Governor’s race.

The unexpected turn of events appears directly connected to the controversy surrounding the alleged fraud claims regarding certain Minnesota public assistance programs. Clearly, the Governor’s internal polling revealed his chances of winning re-election have greatly diminished; hence, his rather abrupt decision to retire.

Should Sen. Klobuchar become a gubernatorial candidate, she will be the fourth senator choosing to run for governor in the 2026 election cycle. The others are Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). From this group, only Sen. Tuberville is risking his Senate seat to enter his state’s Governor’s campaign. The others, including Sen. Klobuchar, would all have a free ride relating to their current position and be in position to choose their own US Senate successor via appointment.

At this point in Minnesota, 11 Republicans have announced their gubernatorial campaigns including 2022 gubernatorial nominee and former state Sen. Scott Jensen, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Rocori) and state Reps. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea) and Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove).

It is unclear how the Walz retirement and potential Klobuchar entry will affect the burgeoning Republican field. In any event, considering Minnesota’s reliably Democratic voting history, the eventual party nominee, and particularly if it is Sen. Klobuchar, will be favored to win the general election. With the candidate filing deadline not until June 2 for the Aug. 11 primary election, much time remains for each party’s field to gel.

As previously mentioned, should Sen. Klobuchar run for and be elected Governor, she would appoint her successor. The appointed individual would then presumably compete in a 2028 special election to serve the balance of the term. In this case, because Sen. Klobuchar was re-elected in 2024, the appointed Senator, after winning the special election, would then have the opportunity of seeking a full six-year term in 2030.

Should the Klobuchar scenario occur, Minnesota would then have two freshmen Senators during the next Congress similar to the situation we currently see in Ohio. Because Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, the state’s in-cycle race is also open.

Gov. Walz was first elected to his statewide post in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. He averaged 53.1 percent of the vote in his two statewide campaigns. Prior to running for Governor, Walz represented the state’s southern 1st Congressional District for six terms. He then, of course, became the 2024 Vice Presidential nominee on the national Democratic ticket with Kamala Harris. Prior to his entry into elective politics, Walz was a high school geography teacher and football coach.

Nationally, 36 gubernatorial elections will be held later this year. In those 36 campaigns, 18 incumbents, down from 19 with the Walz decision, will seek re-election and the remaining 18 states will feature open gubernatorial competition. Within the group of 36 in-cycle states, each party currently holds 18 Governor’s chairs.

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year; Weekly Political Synopsis

Just a quick last post this holiday season before we take a break till the New Year.

All the best for a wonderful holiday season.

We’ll be back on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026!

By Jim Ellis — Dec. 24, 2025

Senate

Minnesota — While the Republican Party leadership waits for retired national sports reporter Michele Tafoya to make a decision about running for the Senate, former GOP state chairman David Hann announced that he will enter the race. Hann, who was ousted as chairman and lost his state Senate seat when running for re-election, does not have a strong base within the party. Therefore, he is unlikely to be a major threat. It will be important to watch unfolding developments around the Minnesota government benefit fraud scandal to see if the Democrats become weakened.

The Democratic Senate primary features Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). At this point, the eventual Democratic nominee will continue to have the inside track toward winning the general election.

House

CT-1 — The Democratic primary challenger field opposing veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) just got smaller. Former Southington Councilman Jack Perry ended his campaign because he did not see a path to victory. Three Larson intra-party challengers remain, however. They are: former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford), and Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

This is obviously a strong field, but the number of candidates in a plurality primary system could split the anti-incumbent vote to the point where Rep. Larson wins re-election with a small plurality. The Connecticut candidate filing deadline is June 9 for the Aug. 11 primary election. Therefore, much time remains for this race to develop.

FL-23 — Republicans have recruited a strong challenger to two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland). Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R) announced that he will challenge Moskowitz next year. With redistricting set to happen during the next legislative session, it is clear that the GOP map drawers will add Republicans to the 23rd CD. Under the current map, the partisan lean is 52.3D – 45.5R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculation) and Rep. Moskowitz has averaged just 51.9 percent in his two elections. Therefore, this will very likely be a race to monitor throughout the campaign cycle.

NC-3 — While the North Carolina Republican redistricting plan was geared toward making Rep. Don Davis’ 1st CD more Republican, a seat that became more Democratic is the neighboring 3rd District of Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville). The original District 3 partisan lean was 57.2R – 40.7D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Under the new plan that makes CD-1 more Republican, CD-3 drops to 52.8R – 45.2D, a net swing of 8.9 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Not surprisingly, two prominent Democrats jumped into the District 3 race as candidate filing closed. Ex-state Rep. Raymond Smith and the former CEO of The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America organization, Allison Jaslow, both entered the Democratic primary race. The winner of the March 3 primary will then face Rep. Murphy in the general election. Though this is district is more competitive, it is still a Republican seat, and the Congressman will again be favored for re-election.

Governor

California — We see another poll release that finds the large California open jungle qualifying election field again closely bunched. The California Issues Forum just released the results of their FM3 poll (Nov. 30-Dec. 7; 632 likely California jungle election voters; live interview & online) and actually found two Republicans leading the large group.

Former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) leads with 18 percent, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (R), Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore), former Rep. Katie Porter (D), billionaire Tom Steyer (D), former US Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D), and previous Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). After Hilton’s 18 percent support figure, the remaining candidates break down respectively at 17-17-13-6-3-3 percent preference numbers.

There is a scenario, though unlikely yet this poll result shows it could possibly happen, that the large number of Democratic candidates split the vote and the two Republicans advance to the general election with small percentages. The California qualifying election is June 2. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained, advance to the general election. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Ohio — For the second time in a week-long period, a newly released poll finds the presumptive Ohio open race gubernatorial nominees deadlocked. The T. Roosevelt Action group, an organization representing hunters and anglers, publicized their poll results (Dec. 3-8; 603 likely Ohio general election voters) that project Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy leading ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D) by a slight 45-43 percent count. Last week, Emerson College (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Acton holding a similar 46-45 percent edge.

The purpose of the T. Roosevelt Action poll was to test a ballot proposition regarding hunting and fishing, but they also included a Governor’s race query on their questionnaire. The Ohio Governor’s race is open because incumbent Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

Ohio’s Significance

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. To see interactive map, click on image above or here: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

Ohio

The Buckeye State of Ohio is another key 2026 electoral state. With an open Governor’s race, an appointed Senator seeking his first federal election, and as many as three top congressional campaigns, Ohio is clearly a place of significance in determining how the 2026 election will unfold.

A new Emerson College poll (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested both the state’s open Governor’s race and how appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is faring opposite former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

The Ohio political polling history typically features closely competing contests that tend to break, usually toward the Republican candidate, in the last two weeks of the campaign. While Ohio elections have been close over the years, few results have been forced into recounts.

The familiar polling pattern is already beginning. It remains to be seen if the elections will end in a similarly historical fashion.

According to Emerson, Democratic former state Health Director Amy Acton leads businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, 46-45 percent, meaning the open Governor’s contest is a virtual tie. Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Looking at the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted records a three point, 49-46 percent, edge over former Sen. Brown. It is important to remember that in Brown’s losing 2024 effort, he received more votes than he did for his last re-election victory (2018) yet still lost to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) by six percentage points.

As we know, Sen. Husted, at the time of appointment was the state’s sitting Lieutenant Governor, replaced resigned-Sen. J.D. Vance who, of course, left the legislative body to become Vice President. Sen. Husted must now run in 2026 to serve the balance of the current term. He will be eligible to seek a full six-year stint in 2028.

Ohio has also enacted a new congressional redistricting map, an exercise required under state law. Because the 2021 plan was adopted with only majority support in both houses of the legislature, and not a three-fifths count, the congressional map could stand for only two elections, meaning 2022 and 2024.

Last month, the bipartisan elected official redistricting commission, which includes Gov. DeWine, unanimously agreed upon a new map. Since every commissioner supported the new plan, legislative approval was not required under the state’s procedure, meaning the new map automatically became law.

The Ohio US House delegation currently stands at 10R-5D. Republican strategists hoped a new map would yield a two-seat gain, but such a final result could be a stretch under the new design. It does appear the Republicans will net at least one new seat, that of veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Competition opposite Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) is also possible, particularly for the former.

In 2024, Rep. Kaptur, in a 9th District where the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation was 48.8D – 48.6R, won re-election with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent margin over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). Under the new 2025 enacted plan, the DRA partisan lean is 55.2R – 44.0D, obviously a strong swing toward the eventual Republican nominee.

In Cincinnati’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Landsman sees his district transform from one that carried a DRA partisan lean 49.9D – 47.9R to a Republican majority seat at 51.6R – 47.5D. With a candidate filing deadline of Feb. 4 for the May 5 primary, the Republican leadership still has some time to find a highly credible challenger to the now vulnerable Democratic Congressman.

The original Republican plan objective called for targeting two-term Rep. Sykes, who had won two close elections from her northern Ohio 13th District. Republicans had a strong candidate in 2024 nominee and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who came within two percentage points of upsetting Rep. Sykes.

After seeing the new partisan lean calculation of 51.0D – 48.2R, however, Coughlin decided that even this slight swing toward making the district more Democratic was a bridge too far for him to overcome in a midterm election. The previous DRA partisan lean for District 13 was 50.7D – 47.0R. Therefore, he withdrew from the race. Republican leaders are also looking to recruit a strong candidate for this seat.

As you can see, the Buckeye State has a number of crucial races that will determine the state’s direction in electing a new Governor, and possibly the federal outcome, too, with an important Senate race and several hot congressional campaigns.

The Third Hot State

Michigan Congressional Map / To see interactive map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

US House

While the most recent attention for flipping the US House has been devoted to the redistricting changes in California and Texas, a third state that did not redistrict will have an equivalent effect upon the 2026 national US House picture.

The Wolverine State of Michigan will be one of the hottest political states in the country for the 2026 election from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Because of the domain’s later April 21 candidate filing deadline and Aug. 4 partisan primary schedule, the early national political focus has been elsewhere, but such does not diminish Michigan’s importance as a ‘26 electoral player.

At the top of the ticket, and for the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and Senate race in the same election cycle. In the House races, we could see major competition in five of the state’s 13 congressional districts. One of those CDs is open, and two others feature freshman members seeking their first re-election.

The Governor’s race will be unique in that it not only projects to be close, but three-term former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent instead of a Democrat means we will see a competitive statewide campaign not just between two candidates, but three.

At this point, it appears that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will be the respective Democratic and Republican gubernatorial nominees. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to compete for a third term, but we are likely to see more of her as a probable 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring after two terms has made the Michigan open Senate campaign one of the most competitive in the country and may be the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat.

The latest published poll, from Mitchell Research & Communications (Nov. 18-21; 616 likely Michigan general election voters), projects Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers to small leads each over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D). The latter three are already embroiled in a close primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The lateness of the Michigan primary is another break for Rogers since he is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination and can stockpile resources for the general election.

The five competitive races that will have a major effect upon which party controls the next House majority begins in western Michigan with Districts 3 and 4.

In the Grand Rapids anchored 3rd District, which is rated as Lean Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 50.2D – 46.6R), Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), after briefly considering a Senate run, will seek a third term. Republicans don’t yet have a strong candidate capable of converting the seat, but this district is a top GOP recruitment priority.

In the 4th District, veteran Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), who seriously tested the US Senate waters before turning back under GOP party leadership pressure, has not yet officially announced that he will seek re-election in what again promises to be a competitive general election. In 2024, Huizenga won with a 55-43 percent majority against a weak opponent whom he outspent by a 3:1 ratio.

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean for CD-4 is 51.8R – 45.1D meaning the Republicans have a clear advantage but a strong Democrat would have a credible chance of securing an upset victory. Should Huizenga decide to retire, this race will likely go into toss-up mode. Democrats have four announced candidates including state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), who is already polling close to Huizenga.

The area encompassing the cities of Flint, Lansing, and the northern Detroit suburbs will feature potentially the three hottest Michigan US House campaigns.

In the Lansing anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) was the only 2024 candidate to convert an open seat. He will now defend his position within a hot political climate in what promises to be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Six Democrats have announced their candidacies and the leading contender for the party nomination appears to be former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. The DRA partisan lean for this toss-up seat is 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Flint-anchored 8th CD saw Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), then a sitting state Senator, defeat three-time GOP congressional candidate Paul Junge by a 51-45 percent margin. The DRA partisan lean of 51.0D – 46.2R, however, suggests the race could have been a bit closer. Republicans have yet to file a top contender, but this contest will again be close and is, like MI-3, at the top of the GOP candidate recruitment list.

Rep. James departing the 10th District to run for Governor leaves what could become one of the closest open seat races in the country. The DRA partisan lean here is 49.5D – 47.9R which has led to two close James’ victories.

Both parties already have five announced candidates. Republicans feature Mike Bouchard Jr., whose father is the Oakland County Sheriff and a former statewide candidate, while Democrats see former US Commerce Department Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel as their current top candidates.

Potential Republican contenders include former Congressman Mike Bishop and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke. Much will happen in MI-10 before the filing deadline as the candidates and potential candidates continue to test the political waters.

Regardless of how the national redistricting wars end, the US House majority will likely come down to just a few seats. It is clear that Michigan will play a pivotal role in determining which party will ultimately claim control of the House chamber at the beginning of 2027.

The Texas Surprises

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

Texas Elections

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard,” certainly applies to the 2026 Texas federal office slate. Now that candidate filing is closed, the clouded political situation is becoming a bit clearer.

Texas has a unique filing system that makes following which candidate is running where confusing. Instead of filing with a government agency, the candidates file with their political party. Yet, the process is further complicated.

Candidates filing for offices where the jurisdiction covers more than one county turn their qualifying documents in to their state party office. If a district is fully contained within a single county, the candidates file with their county political party. Once the paperwork is received, the political party entities eventually report the qualified candidates’ names and particulars to the Secretary of State. Therefore, the process takes longer to determine who will be on the ballot than it does in most other states.

In the Senate race, we now have a clear picture for the March 3 partisan primaries. For the Republicans, amidst minor candidates the three major participants, Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), are vying for the party nomination. This race is expected to be close and moving toward a runoff, which is necessary if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote. At this point, it appears that Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance to the secondary election.

For the Democrats, we see a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Five minor candidates have filed, and it is unclear just how many will qualify for the ballot. Irrespective of these latter candidates’ presence, it is likely that we will see either Rep. Crockett or state Rep. Talarico claim the party nomination on March 3.

In the House delegation, 11 seats are open with the addition of TX-30, the seat that Rep. Crockett is leaving to run statewide. It appeared that Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) would move into that district, but he surprisingly chose not to file. Instead, Veasey decided to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive) where he will face a Republican incumbent and other significant candidates.

The Veasey move allows Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch), who sees her 32nd District transform into a Republican domain and stretch into East Texas, to run in District 33, which is fully contained within Dallas County. Her major obstacle to winning a second term in Congress is former Representative and 2024 US Senate Democratic nominee Colin Allred. Though announcing for the Senate in October, Allred instead changed his mind at the last minute and filed to return to the House, this time in District 33. Also in the race is former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilman Domingo Garcia. Therefore, the top two candidates falling into a runoff becomes a possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will easily win the seat in the general election.

Another new development is the return to the political wars of former Congressman Steve Stockman (R). He has filed in new open District 9. Stockman was twice elected to Congress in non-consecutive elections. He was convicted of violating certain financial laws, but President Trump commuted his 10-year prison sentence. The other major candidate within the crowded field is state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

With 11 filed candidates in the CD-9 race, advancing to a runoff election is probable. It remains to be seen how many of the filed candidates qualify for the ballot. Under the new redistricting plan, the 9th District should be one of the seats that Republicans gain.

Another surprising move came in Houston’s 18th District. This seat is currently in special election mode, with Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) vying to replace the late Congressman Sylvester Turner (D). Immediately after the special election, it was thought the winner would then face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a battle for the new 18th District. The regular primary is scheduled for March 3 after a special election winner is declared on Jan. 31.

Only Menefee, however, filed in new District 18. Therefore, should Edwards win the special election, she will only serve the balance of the current term. Win or lose on Jan. 31, Menefee will advance into the regular Democratic primary against Rep. Green.

The truly surprising facet from the Texas congressional filings is the fact that only two state legislators, Cain and state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio; open new District 35), entered one of the 11 open-seat congressional campaigns. Therefore, the Texas delegation will feature a large number of incoming freshmen entering the House with no legislative experience.