Category Archives: Redistricting

More Texas News in the Spotlight:
Latest Senate, Redistricting Updates

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s US Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay.

Senate

Texas state flag

Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas US Senate poll that supports the common political supposition pertaining to the Lone Star State Senate race. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election.

In this poll, Sen. Cornyn leads Allred 47-40 percent and Talarico by a similar 46-40 percent split, both beyond the polling margin of error. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Allred would lead 44-43 percent, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44 percent.

The third announced Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), was not tested, nor was Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) on the Democratic side. Crockett has been leading in other Texas Democratic statewide primary polls but has not yet made a decision about whether to enter the Senate race.

The latest judicial redistricting ruling from the El Paso three-judge panel suggests Rep. Crockett may stay in the House since the 2025 Texas map invalidation restores her 30th Congressional District to its previous boundaries.

According to Ragnar Research partner Chris Perkins, who conducted this poll, wrote “John Cornyn is the strongest candidate for Republicans in a general election, as he has a clear lead. Paxton is statistically tied with either of the Democrat candidates and jeopardizes the ability of Republicans to hold the seat.”

The Texas Senate race is one of the key focal points of the 2026 election cycle. It will be perhaps the only Senate contest that features a contested primary in both parties along with a highly competitive general election.

Redistricting

Fifth District Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith, a member of the three-judge panel that invalidated the 2025 Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander over his objection, published a scathing dissent to the ruling. In his document, Judge Smith referred to lead Judge Jeffrey Brown’s decision as “the most blatant exercise of judicial activism that I have ever witnessed.” Judge Smith stated that he has been a federal judge for 37 years.

The dissent opinion begins by saying that, “the main winners from Judge Brown’s opinion are George Soros and Gavin Newsom. The obvious losers are the People of Texas and the Rule of Law.”

Throughout a 104-page document, Judge Smith details 11 different examples of how ruling that the 2025 Texas map is a racial gerrymander is either “false, misleading, deeply misleading, or deceptive.”

The state of Texas has already appealed, asking that the current ruling be stayed. Appealing a three-judge panel decision goes directly to the US Supreme Court and an official answer must be rendered. The justice assigned to oversee the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, in which Texas resides, is Samuel Alito. The justices have the individual power to issue stays on cases from the circuits in which they oversee.

If Justice Alito were to grant a stay on the Brown panel redistricting ruling, the 2025 map would return as the official Texas map. With candidate filing closing on Dec. 8, a quick ruling on the stay motion is imperative since the two maps are radically different in 11 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts.

Dec. 2 Special Election
Taking Center Stage in Tennessee

Tennessee Congressional Districts (Click on map to see interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

US House

The Dec. 2 special election to fill the Tennessee open congressional seat should be a slam dunk for the Republicans, but new polling data and outside money coming into the district for both sides infer this contest will be closer than expected.

We’ve seen two recent polls, both producing similar ballot test results. The first is from Workbench Strategies for Democratic nominee, state Rep. Aftyn Behn’s campaign (Oct. 15-19; 400 likely TN-7 special election voters), that found Republican former state cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps leading by a 51-41 percent clip.

The second poll, from Impact Research and taken within the same time frame (Oct. 16-19; 700 likely TN-7 special election voters), produced a similar 52-44 percent result in Van Epps’ favor. The polls suggest the race could become closer as the margin between the two candidates are at least slightly under where the Republican nominee should stand at this point in the campaign.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District was changed dramatically in the 2021 redistricting plan. In order to convert the Nashville-anchored 5th District to the Republicans, the 7th CD had to give up GOP territory. Therefore, what was typically a high 60s Republican seat became a high 50s district.

The 7th District from the previous decade carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) when then-Reps. Marsha Blackburn (R) and Mark Green (R) successively held the seat. Blackburn, of course, is now in the Senate and running for Governor. Green resigned from Congress earlier in the year to pursue an opportunity in the private sector, thereby opening the current 7th District for the special election.

The 2021 TN-7 version for the current decade posts a much different partisan lean, again according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The current numbers yield a 55.1R – 42.2D, or a net Democratic net gain of 21.6 percentage points. This means instead of a Republican candidate finishing near 70 percent, the new numbers would suggest victories in the mid to high 50s.

While the statistics show that a typical Republican candidate should still win easily under the new 7th District boundaries, and so far, they have (President Trump ’24: 60-38%; Rep. Green ’24: 59-38 percent), anything can happen in a low turnout special election. Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the November 4th elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee.

The Virginia turnout numbers are telling and could give us an insight into what might happen in Tennessee. The final Virginia numbers actually showed a two percent drop-off in turnout when compared to 2021. The conclusion was Republican election day turnout proved poor, thus leading to the landslide Democratic victory.

The situation again dictates that the Tennessee Republicans will have to find a better way of convincing what is termed “the casual Trump voter” — that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but typically is not a regular voter — to participate in the special election.

While only spending $188,000 to win the special primary in a four-way Democratic field that featured two other state Representatives, Behn eked out a close victory with just 27.9 percent of the vote. The fourth-place finisher garnered 23.1 percent to illustrate how evenly distributed the votes were among contenders.

The situation is different for the special general. Though financial reports past Sept. 30 are not yet available, it is clear that Rep. Behn will have adequate resources to compete.

She can also count on support from left-of-center national organizations coming into the district to independently help her effort, but such is now being countered to a significant degree from at least two organizations on the right, the Club for Growth and an organization entitled Conservatives for American Excellence.

The stakes are now high for this special election in a Republican district. It is one thing for Republicans to lose big in three anti-Trump domains such as New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. It is quite another if the Democratic nominee prevails in a special election from a strong Republican seat. With early voting now underway, the closing weeks for this campaign will prove quite interesting.

How Texas Changes

To see larger image, click on above map. To see interactive maps, go to Dave’s Redistricting App: Texas 2021 Plan | Texas 2025 Plan

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

Redistricting

The El Paso three-judge panel ruling that invalidates the new Texas map, if allowed to stand, will greatly disrupt the Lone Star State political cycle as candidates currently prepare for an early March 3, 2026, primary election.

In reverting to the 2021 map, 37 of the state’s 38 congressional districts will change, thus altering virtually all the candidates campaign strategies and geographic targets.

Only District 19, now the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remained constant between the two maps. A total of 26 districts experience only minor changes, while 11 see major alterations.

Under the 2025 Texas plan, nine seats are open, but returning to the 2021 map will likely mean that number drops to seven. It is also probable that one member who announced his retirement under the 2025 map, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin), will return to run again if the 2021 map is formally reinstated.

In the invalidated plan, Reps. Doggett and Greg Casar (D-Austin) were paired in a new 37th District, while Rep. Casar’s 35th CD was created as an open seat that stretched into rural counties east of San Antonio. If the 2021 plan is in place for next year’s election, both will have back their previous districts. Doggett said earlier that he would return to seek re-election if the 2025 map was tossed and the previous plan restored.

In the ’25 draw, a new 9th District was created in eastern Harris County. Should the three-judge panel’s ruling be upheld, this district will go away and the candidates seeking this seat will have no place to run.

Should the previous 9th District return, Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) would again seek re-election in this district and would not be paired in a new 18th CD with the winner of the Jan. 31 special runoff election to fill the vacancy created when Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away.

Rep. Michael McCaul’s (R-Austin) 10th District would still be an open seat, and though the territory is different from the invalidated map, the candidate pool would likely remain the same. This is similar to the situation in the 8th and 21st Districts where Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring, and four-term incumbent Chip Roy (R-Austin) passed on re-election to run for state Attorney General.

Turning to South Texas, Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) will naturally see a return to her original 15th District configuration. The new 15th would have given her more Republican voters. Still, she should again be able to win re-election in the 2021 version.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) saw some of the territory that gave him the most trouble go away under the new version of District 28. Rep. Cuellar had two close calls in the Democratic primary largely because of the San Antonio region. The 2025 map moved this district further into South Texas. If the previous districts are reinstated, he may again draw a more combative Democratic primary opponent, while still facing a competitive general election.

One of the districts most affected in South Texas was Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s (D-McAllen) 34th CD anchored in Brownsville. The Congressman would have been in serious trouble under the new plan, but the 2021 version returns his much stronger Democratic base. Still, his victory margin in 2024 was only 51-49 percent over former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), and he can expect to face her again. She would have been favored in the new district, but Rep. Gonzalez returns to having the stronger political position under the 2021 map.

The Dallas area was changed greatly under the 2025 plan. The two members most affected were Reps. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch). Under the new plan, all of Rep. Veasey’s home Tarrant County turf was moved into different districts, leaving his 33rd CD as a self-contained seat within Dallas County.

Under the new plan, Veasey was looking to leave the House to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive). If the previous map returns, it is possible that he will seek re-election.

Rep. Johnson, who saw her 32nd District moved largely into Republican East Texas, would return to the previous district under the 2021 plan. She was looking to move into Rep. Veasey’s vacated 33rd District if the new map were in place.

Republicans had calculated a gain of five seats under the new map, though some of the predictions might have been overly optimistic, such as, beating Rep. Cuellar in his new 28th CD and securing the open 35th CD.

If the three-judge panel’s decision holds, it is probable that we will see no Republican gain under the 2021 map thus making the chances of retaining their slim majority even more precarious.

Texas Redistricting Map Tossed

(Click on map to see full-size detail.)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

Redistricting

The already complicated 2025 national redistricting scene is now even more complex.

Yesterday, in a 2-1 ruling, a three-judge federal panel in El Paso ruled that the new Texas map is a racial gerrymander and therefore voided. The panel majority ordered the previous 2021 map reinstated.

Critics say the ruling is questionable since no racial data was used in drawing the map and the decision knowingly defines the US Department of Justice officials’ intent. The 160-page ruling document also quotes liberal news sources to provide support for its supposition that Republican legislators en masse were opposed to a redraw until DOJ added a racial component regarding coalition districts, meaning those where a compilation of all minority groups create a non-white majority.

The state of Texas is expected to appeal the ruling. All appeals of three-judge panel decisions go directly to the US Supreme Court, and the justices must respond.
The ruling also creates a further potential conflicting situation when considering that the Justice Department filed a racial gerrymandering complaint against the new California map on Nov. 13. A California three-judge federal panel will be formed to hear that case.

Things will change to an even greater extent if, which is likely, a 9th Circuit three-judge panel rules that the California map is not a racial gerrymander. If so, then expect the Justice Department to appeal such a ruling, meaning the Supreme Court will be dealing with conflicting decisions within a similar issue set.

Because the Texas political calendar features an early March 3 primary, and candidate filing concludes on Dec. 8, a great deal of confusion now reigns for the candidates running in the various 38 districts. Only District 19, now the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remained constant in the two maps. Under the 2025 Texas plan, nine seats are open and some of the districts are radically different from the 2021 map.

If the Supreme Court issues the requested stay, possibly because the Texas case arguments could be affected with the high court’s eventual ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the 2025 map would likely return for the 2026 election cycle.

Considering the chaos surrounding the Lone Star State case, what the California decision could be, and the subsequent US Supreme Court action on the coming stay motion, along with the ultimate Louisiana ruling, it is possible that Texas could postpone the state primary.

There has been precedent for postponing a primary for a set of affected political contests, in this case the congressional campaigns because of redistricting. Doing so would give the high court more time to render a final decision that hopefully would be definitive as it relates to racial gerrymandering.

Louisiana, awaiting their SCOTUS redistricting decision after going through a second round of oral arguments, has already postponed their primary one month — from April 18 to May 16.

To further complicate matters, Gov. Greg Abbott has now ordered the special runoff election to fill Houston’s 18th District congressional vacancy to be held on Jan. 31, 2026.

The runoff features a contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D), both of whom qualified for the secondary election in the Nov. 4 initial vote.

Immediately upon winning the special election, the victor will face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in the regular 2026 primary election on March 3. Now with the confusion about where the candidates must file, the District 18 special election could be one more reason the Texas regular primary might be postponed. TX-18 is vacant because incumbent Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away earlier in the year.

With such a short time frame affecting so many Texas congressional candidates and electorates, firm decisions must soon be made.

California Numbers:
Some Democrats Actually Fare Worse

California Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version: Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

Redistricting

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan division for all of the new Golden State districts.

Several Democratic incumbents, and surprisingly the two considered most vulnerable heading into the 2026 election, actually fare worse when compared to the previous draw. Several Republican districts have no doubt been destroyed, but the situation may not be as dire for the GOP as Gov. Newsom’s media spin leads one to believe.

Starting in Northern California, Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-Oroville) 1st District has been transformed into a Democratic district. According to the DRA partisan lean calculations, the 1st moves from 60.2R – 37.7D to 55.2D – 44.1R. With state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) positioning himself to challenge Rep. LaMalfa, the Republican Congressman will have a very difficult time winning an eighth term.

Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is leaving his Sacramento County 6th District to run in District 3, which is now a point more Democratic than his home district. There, he will ostensibly challenge two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). The move puts Rep. Kiley in a bad position since his 3rd CD has flipped from holding a partisan lean of 52.5R – 45.6D to one having a 53.4D – 45.7R split, a net swing of just under 15 percentage points toward the Democratic segment.

There is some speculation that Rep. Kiley will vacate District 3 and attempt to unseat fellow Republican Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, one of just four safe Republican seats in the state. The new CA-5 partisan lean: 60.7R – 38.7D.

Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) was the closest winner of all 435 districts in the 2024 election, a 187-vote win over then-Rep. John Duarte (R). Surprisingly, the new map makes the latest version of CA-13 slightly less Democratic. The previous partisan lean was 54.0D – 44.2R, yet Duarte won the seat in 2022 and barely lost in 2024. The new partisan lean is a net 4.6 percentage points more Republican (52.4D – 46.9R).

Though the new 13th District remains more Democratic, the congressional voting history shows weakness in the Dem fortress. A strong candidate such as former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R), who has already announced that he will run, projects another difficult race for Gray.

Fresno Rep. Jim Costa (D) has averaged only 53.4 percent of the vote in his two elections but his district, just like Rep. Gray’s, actually moves more Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Instead of seeing a 58.5D – 39.9R partisan lean, the new district records a 54.4D – 45.0R swing, a net gain of 9.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor. Though Rep. Costa will still be favored to carry the new 21st CD, seeing a potential Republican upset develop here is not outside the realm of possibility.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) has always been a major national Democratic target since he represents one of the most Democratic districts to send a Republican to the US House. Despite facing an adverse partisan lean in the previous District 22 version of 55.5D – 42.6R, Rep. Valadao secured two consecutive victories. This is another Central Valley district where the non-partisan calculations find the Republican factor getting better on this new map.

Moving forward, the DRA partisan lean for CD-22 is 52.1D – 47.3R, representing a net Republican gain of 8.1 percentage points. Therefore, with Rep. Valadao securing a 53-47 percent victory under the previous partisan lean, his chances should improve under this new 2026 map.

Seven-term Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) also sees his sprawling desert district become a bit more Republican. According to the past and present DRA partisan lean calculations, Rep. Ruiz’s 25th District is 5.5 percentage points more Republican. The new partisan lean is 54.2D – 45.3R, which clearly still favors Democrats, but the new draw makes the seat potentially more competitive.

The new 40th District is the final domain conceded to the Republicans. At this point, it appears both Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra) may be fighting each other to capture this seat. Rep. Calvert has already declared he will run here as his 41st District was transferred to Los Angeles County from Riverside County, and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) has declared her intent to run in that district.

Neither Reps. Calvert nor Kim represent a great deal of the new 40th, so we will see how this paired contest eventually unfolds. It is possible that both could advance to the general election under the state’s jungle primary format so we might see a year-long campaign between the two Republicans.

Another surprising aspect on this new map is the draw for freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) in the new 45th District. In 2024, Tran unseated two-term GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by 653 votes, which made it the second-closest congressional race in California and the nation. Yet, under the new map, the partisan lean actually moves slightly more toward the Republicans. When Rep. Tran won, the DRA partisan lean was 52.2D – 45.9R. The new ratio is 51.7D – 47.5R, a net swing of 2.1 percentage points toward the GOP.

While Rep. Tran will still see more Democratic voters in his district than Republican, we can count on the GOP making a major effort here. Under the new draw, this seat could be another option for Rep. Kim.

The final district that was greatly changed is Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-San Diego) 48th District. The seat flips from having a partisan lean of 58.3R – 39.8D to a new district, largely because of including most of the city of Encinitas, that yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan split. Obviously, the district is somewhat more Democratic, but the numbers are close enough that Rep. Issa will have a fighting chance to win again.

While Democrats will very likely gain seats under this new draw and reduce California’s Republican contingent to fewer than the nine seats they currently control, stretching to a Democratic gain of five might not be achieved.

Ohio Redistricts

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version on Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

Redistricting

Ohio’s unique redistricting process ended as quickly as it began.

The Buckeye State’s seven-member redistricting commission, which is comprised of elected officials from both parties and includes Gov. Mike DeWine (R), unanimously passed a new congressional map. The act of the commissioners reaching a bipartisan consensus vote means the map becomes law and does not go to the legislature for approval. The plan will now stand for the remainder of the decade.

Ohio voters previously adopted changes to the redistricting process that created the state’s unusual elected officials commission (other commission states typically have citizen members), which involves the legislature if the bipartisan panel cannot unanimously agree.

If the commissioners reached an impasse, the plan would advance to the legislature where a three-fifths vote of each house would be required to enact a map for the entire decade. Passing a plan with majority support, but short of a three-fifths tally, means the district configuration could only stand for two elections. Such was the case with the 2021 congressional map; hence, the legal requirement to redraw the current plan for the decade’s succeeding elections.

Ohio becomes the fourth state to complete its redistricting process joining Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina. California will soon follow suit since their ballot referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map passed in today’s election.

The new Ohio plan heavily targets veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) who, first elected in 1982, is the longest serving female in congressional history. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Kaptur’s new 9th District becomes a net 10.7 points more Republican.

The 2021 map, which was used in 2022 and 2024, carried an OH-9 partisan lean of 48.8D – 48.6R. In 2024, Rep. Kaptur’s victory margin was just 48.3 – 47.6 percent over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). According to the Down Ballot political blog reporters, President Trump would have carried new District by a 55-44 percent clip.

The new partisan lean will be 54.8R – 44.2D, and state Senate President Rob McColley (R-Napoleon), whose residence has been added to the 9th District, is potentially waiting in the wings to initiate a congressional challenge.

The original GOP objective included making the state’s 13th District, that of Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron), more Republican. In her two congressional elections, she has averaged 51.9 percent of the vote. As a result of the partisan commission members’ compromise offering, Rep. Sykes’ district actually became just under a half-point more Democratic according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Therefore, the new District 13 partisan lean is 51.2D – 47.2R.

Kamala Harris would have carried the new CD-13 with a 51-48 percent margin. In the previous version, her victory over President Trump equaled just 183 votes, making it the tightest congressional district in the country for the 2024 presidential election.

Former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), who held Rep. Sykes to her close 2024 re-election victory and was planning to run again, says he would have no victory path in the district’s new version. As a result, Coughlin announced that he will not return for a rematch.

While District 13 became slightly more Democratic under the new draw, the Cincinnati-anchored District 1 now flips from Harris to Trump. Instead of Rep. Sykes being a main GOP target, it is two-term Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) who will draw the difficult path to re-election in 2026.

According to Down Ballot, the 1st District 2024 presidential numbers flip from what was 53-46 percent Harris to 51-48 percent Trump. The DRA partisan lean spins from 49.9D – 47.9R to 50.8R – 48.2D, meaning the political advantage almost symmetrically turns.

While the Republicans hoped to pass a map that would have given them an extra two seats in the Ohio delegation (the current partisan split is 10R-5D), they now see one district likely coming their way with two other Democratic seats moving toward the competitive category.

Overall, of the 15 Ohio districts, only two become more Democratic, Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus) seat, and that of western Republican Congressman Warren Davidson (R-Troy). The remaining 13 CDs all swing slightly more Republican.

Questions arose as to why the Democratic commission members would agree to the compromise map. The members responded saying they believe this plan was their best option, arguing the legislature would have drawn an even more partisan map. Conversely, some Republicans are attacking the GOP commission members for not pushing the map into the legislature.

Expect the political jockeying for position within the new congressional districts to immediately begin now that the campaign playing field is set.

Utah Redistricts

Watch this report by Fox 13 News|Utah: Utah Redistricting

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

Redistricting

On Monday, the presiding Utah state judge chose a new congressional map that will significantly change the Beehive State delegation.

Previously, Judge Dianna Gibson (D) had invalidated the current map drawn in 2021 because she maintained the legislature ignored criteria that voters approved through a ballot initiative. The Utah state Supreme Court then upheld her opinion.

The result included bringing forth maps that adhered to the missing criteria. Judge Gibson chose the version that created a Salt Lake City metro district that will assuredly elect a Democratic Representative and change the Utah delegation from a 4R-0D contingent to 3R-1D.

An alternative plan would have created two Republican seats and two politically marginal districts that both parties would have had a chance of winning. The judge’s decision, however, now gives former one-term Congressman Ben McAdams (D), among others, a chance at winning a Democratic primary, which would punch a ticket to the House of Representatives.

McAdams was elected to the House in 2018, defeating the now-deceased Congresswoman Mia Love (R). He then lost two years later to current Representative and former NFL football player Burgess Owens (R-Draper).

Kamala Harris would have carried the new 1st District by a 60-37 percent count according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The remaining three districts are all solidly Republican, featuring Trump victories with spreads from 29 to 41 points in 2024.

With the Democrats gaining a Utah seat, one of the current four Republican Representatives will be out after the 2026 election.

Of the three, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) appears to have the new northern 2nd District all to himself. Though his home is not in the 2nd, his original hometown of Ogden is one of the key population centers. The other is the city of Logan where Utah State University is located.

The new 3rd CD, which looks like a backwards letter “L”, is the seat that currently would house two Republican incumbents, two-term Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and freshman Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine). The district begins in the Provo area, moves south all the way to Arizona along the Colorado border, and then west to Nevada, the area that encompasses Rep. Maloy’s home turf.

Rep. Owens’ home is in the new 4th CD, which covers the west-central part of the state. This district contains a significant portion of Rep. Maloy’s constituency, which means she could also run in new District 4.

If all four Republican incumbents seek re-election, then the Maloy-Kennedy pairing is the most likely outcome. Rep. Maloy is the weakest politically in the delegation. She won the 2024 Republican primary by just 176 votes (50.1 percent) after barely securing 43 percent of the nominating convention vote. Not opting to circulate petitions, Maloy could have lost her seat in the convention had she slipped below the primary qualifying 40 percent delegate vote factor.

Rep. Kennedy is much stronger. He won the five-way Republican primary with almost 40 percent of the vote after demonstrating dominance in the nominating convention with 61.5 percent of the delegate vote.

Another scenario suggests that three-term Rep. Owens, who will be 75 years. old at the next election, could retire. If this were his decision, Rep. Maloy would likely run in the 4th District, thus leaving the 3rd CD to Kennedy.

Most of the delegation has little in the way of available campaign funds. The exception, Rep. Moore, holds almost $2.2 million in his campaign account, which compares very favorably against Rep. Kennedy’s $240,000, Rep. Maloy’s $201,000, and $167,000 for Rep. Owens. The fundraising figures are from the members’ Sept. 30 Federal Election Commission quarterly report and could have changed significantly since the totals were made public.

The new judicial map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 election. Since the state Supreme Court has already ruled earlier in the process, any lawsuit filed to overturn the map would have very little chance of succeeding.

Therefore, the bottom line on the just completed Utah redistricting process is a one seat Democratic gain.