Category Archives: House

How Polls Can Mislead

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 16, 2026

Polling

Polling is an important element in campaigning for office and also an invaluable tool in helping to forecast elections, but one that can also mislead. That’s why it’s so important to understand the polling methodology in order to best comprehend what the data tells us.

A good example of not taking a ballot test at first glance comes in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary where two polls taken within the same relative time frame are producing very different results. Delving into the methodology gives us a better idea of which pollster has the better information.

The 2nd District is Maine’s northern congressional seat that encompasses most of the Pine Tree State’s vast land area and stretches to the Canadian border. The major population centers are the cities of Bangor, Augusta, and the Lewiston-Auburn metro area. Four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is not seeking re-election.

The ME-2 seat is also the most Republican congressional district in the country that sends a Democrat to the House of Representatives. President Trump has carried the 2nd District in all three of his national general election campaigns. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation shows a 52.9R – 41.1D split. The 2026 open race here may become the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity in the nation.

The 2026 campaign features former two-term Gov. Paul LePage, who faces only minor opposition for the Republican nomination, and two major Democrats vying to become their party’s standard bearer: state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), brother of former Governor, ex-Congressman, and previous state Sen. John Baldacci, and State Auditor and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.

The conflicting polls in question come from the Maine-anchored Pan Atlantic Research firm conducting its regular “Omnibus Poll,” and Tulchin Research for the Dunlap campaign.

The methodology disclosure for the Pan Atlantic survey reveals that 810 likely voters were questioned online during the period of Feb. 13 through March 2nd. Tulchin conducted their survey soon after Pan Atlantic finished, from March 5-8 of 400 likely ME-2 voters, via multiple sampling techniques.

When looking at the 2nd District Democratic primary, Pan Atlantic projects Sen. Baldacci as holding a significant 36-14-12 percent advantage over Dunlap and former congressional aide Jordan Wood, respectively. Tulchin, however, found a very different result. According to the TR ballot test, it is Dunlap who holds a 36-29-11 percent lead over Sen. Baldacci and Wood.

Obviously, the two pollsters come to contrary conclusions as to what may happen in this particular political campaign. Digging deeper, we can find which of these two surveys is likely the more accurate predictor.

Looking at the Pan Atlantic methodology, we see, as previously stated, that 810 likely voters have been surveyed. This, however, is the number for the entire state and contains many more than just 2nd Congressional District likely Democratic primary voters. The Tulchin Research data focuses only on the 2nd District, and though their sample size of 400 respondents is approximately only half the size of the Pan Atlantic aggregate, in actuality it is the better sample.

Looking closely at the Pan Atlantic report, we find that only 144 individuals comprise the 2nd District Democratic primary subset. This is barely large enough to form a segment cell let alone a sample for an entire congressional district. Therefore, while this Pan Atlantic survey is viable to forecast the statewide general election races, its candidate preference data for the 2nd District Democrats that shows Sen. Baldacci holding a large lead should be discarded.

The better picture comes from the Tulchin Research data. Their polling sample of 400 likely partisan primary voters is sound, thus the projection of Dunlap leading the Democratic primary beyond the polling margin of error is the more believable study.

Expect this Democratic primary to be hard fought through the June 9 primary election. The winner will then face former Gov. LePage in what promises to be a highly competitive general election congressional contest in a race that carries national implications relating to which party will control the House of Representatives in the next Congress.

Rep. Issa to Retire From CA-48;
Non-Partisan Rep. Kiley to Run in CA-6

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 10, 2026

CA-48

California Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego)

In another House retirement decision, veteran California US Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) reversed course and announced on Friday that he will not seek re-election this fall.

The new California redistricting plan was not kind to Rep. Issa, but he initially made statements predicting victory in the new version of District 48. Under the current map, the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation revealed a 58.3R – 39.8D split for CD-48. The new Dave’s Redistricting App version, in use for the 2026 election, yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan lean.

Though the Democratic map drawers attempted to make this a seat for their new party standard bearer, the numbers suggest a competitive contest will develop potentially resulting in a toss-up rating.

With the news of Issa’s intended retirement, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R), who was running in Congressional District 49 against Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano), will change his focus and move into what will now be an open 48th CD.

Desmond, who represents much of CA-48 on the county Board, will be a strong candidate for the GOP and can now compete in a district more favorable for a Republican. New District 49 carries a 53.8D – 45.3R partisan lean according to the DRA calculations.

There are 12 announced CA-48 Democratic candidates. California candidate filing closed on Friday but because the incumbent did not file in this district, the deadline extends until March 11. Therefore, it becomes unclear exactly how many individuals will ultimately qualify.

Among the notable Democratic individuals who had previously announced are frequent candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar, San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, and Vista City Councilwoman Corinna Contreras.

A recent Public Policy Polling company survey (Feb. 16-17; 727 registered CA-48 voters; live interview and text) produced a 40-18 percent Issa lead over Campa-Najjar with no other potential candidate even reaching the 10 percent level.

Under California’s top-two jungle primary system, all contenders will compete in a June 2 qualifying election. The top two finishers, regardless of partisan affiliation and percentage attained, will advance to the general election. Under the new lineup, Supervisor Desmond appears as a lock to advance, because he will likely coalesce the Republican vote, while the large Democratic grouping will split their party’s votes and battle for the second qualifying position.

While the partisan lean slightly favors the Democrats, the CA-48 election could conceivably develop into a toss-up general election campaign as previously mentioned. Without Rep. Issa in the race, however, the eventual Democratic finalist will begin the general election with a slight advantage.

CA-6

As candidate filing was coming to a close in northern California’s 6th District, we see 3rd District Congressman Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin) filing in this domain while 6th District incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is seeking re-election in the adjacent District 3.

Rep. Kiley appeared indecisive about where he would run. Most observers believed he would file against Republican Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, which stretches all the way to the Fresno area. The 5th is one of four Republican favorable districts in the state after the new redistricting plan was enacted.

Kiley clearly did not want to challenge Rep. Bera in CD-3, so as the filing deadline drew near the Congressman announced that he would enter the District 6 race indicating that he did not want to run in a place, meaning CD-5, that didn’t include his hometown.

District 6, located to the north and east of downtown Sacramento and stretching to the city of Roseville, is now as Democratic as District 3 (each new draw for Districts 3 and 6 show a partisan lean of approximately 53D – 46R). While running in CD-6 does not provide Kiley with a partisan edge, he isn’t facing a fellow incumbent.

His surprise move, likely in an attempt to negate some of his partisan disadvantage, is to file as a No Party Preference candidate, meaning an Independent.

While he isn’t opposing Rep. Bera, Kiley does have a group of formidable Democrats to overcome. In the field are Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, and ex-state Sen. Richard Pan. In all, six Democrats, four Republicans, and Rep. Kiley on the NPP ballot line appears to be the 6th District field.

How Rep. Kiley not filing as a Republican helps him remains a subject of debate. While he is trying to ditch the GOP party label in an area where it is unpopular, he loses the institutional party support and likely many donors. He begins the campaign with just over $2 million in his campaign account, which should be enough to run a credible campaign if the money is spent late in the campaign cycle.

Both CA-48 and CA-6 will be districts to watch in the June 2nd qualifying election and the November campaign.

Georgia, Mississippi Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 11, 2026

GA-14 Special Election

GA-14 lies in the northwest corner of Georgia. To see an interactive version of this map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

The special election to replace resigned Rep. Margorie Taylor Greene (R) ended as expected with the top two finishers advancing to an April 7 runoff election from the field of 17 candidates. All contenders were placed on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. Since no one received majority support, advancing to a runoff election is required under Georgia election procedure.

Democratic retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who spent over $4 million in his campaign on top of spending more than $3.5 million against Rep. Greene in the 2024 election cycle, finished first but with only 37.3 percent of the vote. Local district attorney Clay Fuller, who had President Trump’s endorsement, finished a close second with 34.9 percent, or 2,853 votes behind Gen. Harris.

Though last night’s Democratic share is better than 14th District historical trends suggest (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 69.2R – 28.9D; Trump ’24: 68.1 – 31.3 percent; Greene ’24: 64.3 – 35.6 percent), the Shawn Harris first-place finish should not be considered so unusual.

Of the 17 candidates on the ballot, only three were Democrats. Considering the Harris campaign’s huge spending figure and not splitting the Democratic vote base among a large field, it was clear that the leading Democrat would at least qualify for the runoff if not finish first. A dozen Republicans were competing for the largest share of the Republican base. Adding the aggregate Republican versus Democrat votes, the GOP combined candidates received 60 percent of the turnout.

Total voter participation exceeded 115,000, which is very strong for a special congressional primary election. In terms of county vote share, a Republican candidate won six of the district’s ten counties while Gen. Harris claimed four. The latter man’s largest total (a 49 percent vote share) occurred in Cobb County, the district’s second largest population center. The strongest Republican vote share was in Murray County where Fuller recorded 48 percent.

Mississippi

No particular surprises from last night’s Mississippi primary results, as both the Republican and Democratic primaries finished as expected.

In the Senate race, incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), as predicted, easily captured renomination with 81 percent of the GOP vote. Also as forecast, she will now face Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom who was an easy winner on the Democratic side. Colom scored a 73-18-8 percent victory over two minor opponents to claim the party nomination.

Sen. Hyde-Smith will now be a heavy favorite in the general election. In terms of voter turnout, approximately 9,000 more Republicans than Democrats voted in the statewide intra-party elections.

Turning to the House, Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo) and Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson) were unopposed for renomination.

In the 1st District, Rep. Kelly will now face the new Democratic nominee, attorney Cliff Johnson who defeated state Rep. Kelvin Buck (D-Holly Springs) with 64 percent of the vote. In a district with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean of 63.9R – 35.0D (Trump: ’24: 67.9 – 30.8 percent; Kelly ’24: 69.8 – 30.2 percent), the Congressman becomes a prohibitive favorite in his quest to secure a seventh term.

Agribusinessman and investor Michael Chiaradio was also unopposed in the Democratic primary. Like Rep. Kelly, Congressman Guest must be rated as the clear favorite to secure the general election. The DRA partisan lean for District 3 is 60.7R – 38.3D (Trump ’24: 64.1 – 34.9 percent; Guest ’24: 100 percent).

The 2nd District Democratic primary had drawn some national attention as former congressional staffer Evan Turnage returned to Mississippi and was challenging veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton). Also as predicted, Rep. Thompson was an easy winner, recording an 86-13 percent landslide victory.

The 2nd District is the state’s lone Democratic CD and has a strong partisan voter history. The DRA partisan lean here is 63.8D – 35.5R (Harris ’24: 59.7 – 39.3 percent; Thompson ’24: 62.0 – 38.0 percent). Like Mississippi’s three other congressional incumbents, Rep. Thompson is a lock to win again in November.

Fourth District incumbent Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) was also a big winner in his Republican primary. The Congressman topped former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in a landslide 84-16 percent vote count. He will have little trouble overcoming the new Democratic nominee, state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport) who recorded a 57 percent win over two intra-party contenders.

The 4th District DRA partisan lean is 67.0R – 31.7D (Trump ’24: 70.7 – 28.2 percent; Ezell ’24: 74.0 – 26.0 percent). Obviously, this seat is the strongest Republican congressional district in one of the party’s most loyal states.

Mississippi Primary &
Georgia Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Primary season continues today in Mississippi as candidates are vying for party nominations in the US Senate campaign and all four US House districts. The special jungle primary to replace resigned Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) is also scheduled for today.

Mississippi

Mississippi state flag

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is on the ballot for a second full term, and she is expected to easily win renomination tonight over physician Sarah Adlakha. Mississippi is a runoff state, but the Senator will certainly eclipse the 50 percent-plus-one vote threshold to secure renomination.

Hyde-Smith was initially appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy in the 2018 special election, and then again in the 2020 regular election for a full term.

Tonight, Lowndes County District Attorney and former municipal judge Scott Colom is expected to win the Democratic primary, and he too should avoid being forced into a runoff election. He faces two minor Democratic opponents. Sen. Hyde-Smith will be a clear favorite in the general election.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo) is unopposed for renomination. Two Democrats, ex-state Rep. Kelvin Buck and attorney Cliff Johnson are competing for their party nomination. Since only two contenders are on the ballot, one of them will win tonight. MS-1 is a heavily Republican district, so Rep. Kelly is a prohibitive favorite in November.

The 2nd District Democratic primary is likely to attract the most electoral attention tonight. Here, veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) seeks renomination to an 18th term from the Mississippi Delta CD. His opponent is former congressional aide Evan Turnage, who returns to his home district in one of about a dozen attempts around the country for a younger Democrat attempting to unseat a veteran House member in the party primary. Turnage is a credible candidate, but Rep. Thompson should easily win renomination tonight and sail through another general election.

The 3rd District race is set. Neither Rep. Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), on the ballot seeking a fifth term, nor Democrat Michael Chiaradio have primary opposition tonight. MS-3 is also a safe Republican seat, so Rep. Guest will cruise to re-election in November.

Turning to the gulf coast 4th District, we see competition in both party primaries. Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) is running for a third term and faces only former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in the GOP primary.

Three Democrats are vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Ezell in the general election: state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport), business consultant Ryan Grover, and military veteran Paul Blackman comprise the party’s candidate field. Rep. Hulum will be favored to win outright tonight, but Rep. Ezell should have little trouble holding the seat in the November general election.

GA-14

To see an interactive map of the Georgia Congressional Districts and GA-14, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

The initial election to replace Rep. Taylor Greene is being held today. A total of 15 Republicans are on the ballot along with three Democrats, a Libertarian Party member and an Independent. If one of the candidates receives an absolute majority, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers irrespective of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.

The eventual special election winner will then serve the balance of the current term. Candidate filing has already closed for the regular term, so it is possible we could see a competitive regular election primary on the Republican side in May regardless of how the special concludes.

For the Democrats, the question to be answered tonight is whether their strongest candidate, retired Army General Shawn Harris, qualifies for the runoff or if two Republicans will advance. The GOP dominates this district, the safest Republican seat in Georgia, but with the vote split among so many party candidates, it will be possible for Gen. Harris to coalesce most of the Democratic vote and secure a runoff position. Doing so might allow him to even finish first.

Gen. Harris has raised and spent $4 million in this race. Running against Rep. Greene in 2024 (he spent $3.5 million but received only 36 percent of the vote), Gen. Harris has become a vacuum for Democratic and left of center campaign dollars. Those contributions have continued for the special election, so we will see what effect the large expenditures will have upon the final vote.

Regardless of what happens tonight, Gen. Harris will return for the regular election. He is unopposed for the party nomination later this year.

For the Republicans, the leading candidates appear to be Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit District Attorney Clay Fuller who has President Trump’s endorsement. Other contenders sure to attract significant votes are former Paulding County Commissioner Brian Stover, state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), and Dalton City Councilman Nicky Lama.

First Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Voting occurred in the first three primary states yesterday, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. A number of races were decided last night and several are heading to runoffs. Some primary winners are already preparing for tough general election campaigns, while others are celebrating victories tantamount to winning a November electoral contest.

Texas

A huge primary night was held in the Lone Star State, and much more will be written about these races in the days and weeks to come.

In the all-important US Senate race, as expected, Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff election. Though votes remain outstanding, a runoff has clearly been projected. Somewhat surprising to many political observers, Sen. Cornyn ran in first place all evening, and carries a one-point margin over AG Paxton from last night’s tabulations. Both will now advance into the late May runoff election by virtue of both scoring in the low 40s percentile range.

For the Democrats, late last night state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) was declared the victor over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) by just about 160,000 votes with ballots still to count. The Republican runoff winner will now face Talarico in the November election in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive Texas Senate race we will have seen this century.

A total of 20 US House races in Texas saw significant primary action. Below is a quick recap:

Incumbents Losing or Trailing

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) even though the Congressman held a huge financial advantage. The vote tally isn’t yet final, but the margin at this writing is a whopping 57-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Toth will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the general election.

Two other House members trail and could lose their seats. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is 11 percentage points behind former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), but many ballots remain outstanding because of alleged voting irregularities in Dallas County and a delay in closing the polling places. It is possible that Allred could still win the nomination or be forced into a runoff with Rep. Johnson.

Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who many election analysts predicted to lose, may not. He is locked in a tight battle that still could go either way. Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leads by just 654 votes, but with almost one-third of the ballots still uncounted. Additionally, both men are in the high 40s percentile, meaning neither has reached the majority threshold. Therefore, both could still advance to a May 26 runoff election.

Scandal-tainted Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) trails 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera, but both are only in the low 40s percentile range. Therefore, we can expect the two men being forced into another runoff. Two years ago, Rep. Gonzales was renominated over Herrera by only a 354-vote margin in the runoff election.

Outright Winners

The following candidates were declared outright winners last night in contested races and will advance to the general election as their party’s nominee:

In District 8, former America First Policy Institute attorney Jessica Steinmann romped to an easy 68 percent victory in the open Republican primary, which has likely punched her ticket into Congress. The 8th CD is solidly Republican.

In the 10th CD, Republican Chris Gober, who ran the Super PAC operation for Elon Musk, appears to have won the party nomination outright, though all ballots have not yet been tabulated. Assuming he has won the nomination, he will replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) after winning the general election.

Turning to the San Antonio-anchored 21st District, retired Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira recorded a 61 percent victory against 11 opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), who has advanced into an Attorney General’s race runoff against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

Looking at South Texas District 28, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) landed a 58 percent victory and will now defend his seat in November against Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina who easily won the Republican nomination with almost 75 percent of the party vote.

Also, on the Democratic side, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson with a 58 percent total.

In the seat that Rep. Crockett risked to run for the Senate, prominent Dallas mega church pastor Frederick Haynes easily won the Democratic nomination with 74 percent of the vote. This primary win punches his ticket to Washington in the fall.

Facing nine Republican primary opponents, veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) won renomination for a 13th term with just under 60 percent of the vote.

In the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, attorney Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores and six other Republican opponents to claim the party nomination with about a 57 percent vote total. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) was also renominated last night but with a disappointing 62.7 percent total. Expect a tough general election to occur in a district that became more Republican under the new redistricting map.

Two more Republicans, Jace Yarbrough in open District 32 and Jon Bonck in open District 38 are knocking on the door of securing majority support. Both will be prohibitive favorites in the general election if they can secure majority support from last night’s primary.

Run-offs

Texas races where no candidate received majority support, thus necessitating a May 26 runoff election, will occur in new open District 9 (Alexandra Mealer vs. state Rep. Briscoe Cain), open District 19 (agribusinessman Tom Sell and an opponent to be decided in a close battle for second place), and open CD 35 (State Rep. John Lujan-R) and businessman Chris De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen).

Much will be written about these races to recap the primary and cover the runoff elections, but the most extraordinary occurrence last night was the Texas Democrats likely exceeding Republican turnout for the first time in decades.

North Carolina

As expected, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each easily clinched their respective party nominations and will advance to what promises to be one of the premier national US Senate races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come in the general election, Democratic primary turnout was significantly higher than Republicans. In fact, Cooper received over 140,000 more votes than the aggregate GOP total.

In a contest that was predicted to finish close, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/ Chapel Hill) is in a race that is still undecided, though she has a 1,202-vote lead with a small number of outstanding votes. Her Democratic primary challenge was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who received outside support estimated in the seven-figure range.

In the competitive 1st District, 2024 congressional nominee and ex-Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout won a close Republican primary, outlasting Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck by a five percent margin. Buckhout now advances to the general election against Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a much more favorable Republican district than where the two battled two years ago. In the 2024 election, Davis was re-elected with less than a two-point re-election margin. NC-1 now becomes a top national Republican conversion opportunity.

Arkansas

Few incumbents were opposed in the Natural State primary. Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) was the only federal official who even had minor opposition. Rep. Hill was easily renominated with 77 percent of the vote. He will face Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this year’s general election.

All in all, a very exciting 2026 first primary night.

CA-1 Special Now Competitive

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 26, 2026

House

Former California state Senate President Mike McGuire

Northern California’s 1st District has been at the focal point of California congressional politics for the past eight months, and this week the CD attracts more political attention. A new candidate declared for the 1st District’s special election, and the individual’s decision to run for the short term is at least somewhat head scratching.

It was reported that former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) announced his special election candidacy. His move brings political risk that need not be undertaken. If McGuire simply remained in the Senate and ran only for the regular term he would be considered a prohibitive favorite, but not so for the special election.

When Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced last August that he would convince the legislature to schedule a redistricting referendum to pass a congressional map in order to negate what a new Texas plan might do for Republicans, then-state Senate President McGuire became the central figure in delivering the two-thirds majority in his chamber necessary to schedule the special referendum election and provide support for Newsom’s bold move.

The voters had to approve the irregular redistricting plan because the process was usurping the California Citizens Commission map enacted in 2021. Therefore, both legislative and public approval were required.

Sen. McGuire, ineligible to seek re-election in 2026 because of state term limits, wanted to change the 1st District, which was safely Republican under the Commission map, into a Democratic seat that he could win. Hence, altering the 1st District to McGuire’s liking became the price for passing the mid-decade redistricting referendum legislation.

Instead of a 1st District under the Commission map that read 60.2R – 37.7D and occupied the territory in the northeastern corner of the state that Oregon and Nevada bordered, the new 1st is anchored in Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma and encompasses Democratic territory in the outer Sacramento suburbs. The new 1st CD’s partisan lean is 55.2D – 44.1R.

On Jan. 6, seven-term 1st District US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) suddenly passed away. His death leads to a special election that will be held concurrently with the state’s June 2 statewide primary election.

The first question the special election posed was whether the vote would be held in the 2021 version of the 1st CD or the new version. Because the special election would be for the purpose of filling the term that began in 2025, the 2021 map was determined as the correct venue.

Immediately, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), who, like Sen. McGuire is reaching the end of his allotted time in the legislature (in California, members can serve six-two year terms in the Assembly or three four-year Senate terms, or a combination not to exceed a combined 14 years), announced that he would compete in the special election. He has yet to state that he will run later this year in the new Democratic district.

Rather surprisingly, Sen. McGuire announced that he, too, will enter the special election. The move is questionable because the 2021 CD-1 is strongly Republican; therefore, he would be considered the underdog to Gallagher. Sen. McGuire would then turn around and seek election in the new 1st CD, regardless of the special election outcome.

The move adds political risk to McGuire’s personal congressional plan, especially since the special election winner will only serve a few months. Should McGuire lose to Gallagher in the special, the former’s air of invincibility for the new seat might be punctured and he will likely have adjusted some issue positions in his attempt to win in conservative territory that might hurt him when campaigning in the new liberal district.

Thus, his losing might make transitioning into the Democratic 1st District during the regular election more difficult. As a result, the move might give Gallagher or another Republican a better chance against McGuire in the regular election even though they will all compete in what should be a reliably new Democratic district.

Under California special election law, all candidates are placed on the same ballot in jungle primary form. Should a contender receive majority support in the first vote, the individual would be elected and immediately take office. If no one receives 50 percent or above, the top two finishers would advance to a runoff election on Aug. 4.

Candidate filing for the special election will conclude on April 9. Currently, the only other candidate to announce for the seat is non-profit organization consultant Audrey Denney (D).

NC-4: Rep. Foushee on the Precipice

On Jan. 31, 2026, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee and Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam participated in a MAPAC-hosted and moderated candidate forum. This will give you a sense of each of the candidate’s positions. (Watch on YouTube)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 25, 2026

House

Two-term North Carolina Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) is in a major fight as she and her opponent engage in political combat during the final campaign days prior to the March 3 primary.

In 2022, Foushee, then a state Senator, defeated Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam by nine percentage points to win a contested eight-person Democratic primary. Foushee would then go onto record an easy general election win in a 4th Congressional District designed to elect a Democrat. In 2022, the seat was open because veteran Rep. David Price (D) retired from elective politics.

Rep. Foushee had an easy first re-election run in 2024, but this year’s Democratic primary has turned hot. Allam, still a member of the Durham County Commission, returned to challenge Rep. Foushee, and though her own campaign has not been flush with campaign cash, several outside groups are spending a combined $1 million to promote Allam for the purpose of unseating Rep. Foushee.

About half of the independent money comes from a pro-Palestinian group entitled “American Priorities.” In 2022, Foushee received strong backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), though so far not to the same degree in this campaign. The American Priorities’ objective is to serve as a counter to AIPAC.

The second major pro-Allam group, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, is the “Leaders We Deserve” organization that deposed Democratic National Committee officer David Hogg founded. This group is active, and will be active, in Democratic primaries with the goal of dislodging Democratic incumbents they view as being part of the political establishment. Combined, the organizations give Allam a 3:1 advantage in outside spending.

Some of the funding coming to help Rep. Foushee is from AI and cryptocurrency interests, but they will have to step up their spending in the last week to propel the incumbent closer to an even footing with the challenger in terms of persuasion expenditures.

A major issue that Allam emphasizes is her opposition to the new AI data center being built in the city of Apex. Allam argues that the facility’s planned energy usage will increase rates relating to water and electricity utilities, and the types of permanent jobs created will be relatively few in number and not targeted to the local populace. Rep. Foushee also has voiced some concern over the plant but in the past has enjoyed strong support from AI interests. Therefore, Allam is attempting to create a clear contrast on this particular issue.

The 4th District of North Carolina lies to the west of the capital city of Raleigh, containing Durham and Orange counties and parts of Chatham and Wake counties. The major population centers are the cities of Durham, Chapel Hill, Apex, and Hillsborough.

The seat is safely Democratic with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 73.0D – 24.8R, so winning the general election for either woman would not be in doubt. The 4th District has a 44.2 percent minority voting age population (VAP), with the dominant Black minority segment comprising 21.7 percent of the district’s VAP. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 4th CD with a 71.8 – 26.5 percent margin even though she lost the statewide vote.

The district has changed since the two women faced each other four years ago. Because of the 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan, 37 percent of the 4th District’s territory is different. The city of Apex, previously mentioned as being the host city for the controversial new data center, is part of the added constituency, which is another reason why Allam is making the plant a major campaign issue and a comparison focal point between she and Rep. Foushee.

As many as three Democratic US House incumbents, including Rep. Foushee, are in competitive races that could result in each losing his or her battle for renomination on March 3. The others are Texas Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch).

Should Foushee and Rep. Green lose next week, the budding activism from some within the Democratic Party who are organizing to elect younger and more aggressive Representatives will get a major national boost. Rep. Johnson, should she lose, would be attributed solely to redistricting.