Category Archives: House

Rep. Letlow to Challenge Sen. Cassidy

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 23, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow

Three-term Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) has joined the group challenging GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy. The Senator confirmed he received a message from Rep. Letlow saying that she will oppose him in this year’s Republican primary and then subsequently publicly declared her intentions. Reports are also surfacing that President Trump has endorsed her candidacy.

The move is a bit of a surprise since a reported understanding existed between Rep. Letlow and state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of Louisiana’s House Ways and Means Committee, that the two would not oppose each other in the Senate challenge. Rep. Emerson announced her candidacy in late October.

It has long been presumed that President Trump would be active in this race since Sen. Cassidy is one of just two Republican Senators on the 2026 ballot to have voted for impeachment over the Jan. 6 controversy at the Capitol. Recently, Trump has been more conciliatory toward the Senator, but it is still clear that he would prefer a different Republican join Sen. John Kennedy (R) in representing Louisiana.

Clearly, the Bayou State race will be one of the premier GOP primary contests. Aside from Rep. Letlow and state Rep. Emerson, 10 others — including State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-Deputy White House Chief of Staff in the first Trump Administration John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden — are all in the nomination race against Sen. Cassidy.

Typically, such a large field would generally help an incumbent because the anti-incumbent votes would be split among so many contenders. In Louisiana, however, the political dynamics have changed. At the end of 2024, the legislature and Governor reinstituted the partisan primary and runoff system to replace the jungle primary structure the state had used since the late 1970s.

Now, such a crowded field likely ensures that the initial vote ends with no candidate receiving majority support, thus forcing the top two finishers to a secondary runoff election.

Originally, the new primary election was scheduled for April 18 but because the US Supreme Court has yet to render a decision on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the state has postponed the first vote to May 16 and the runoff, if necessary, to June 27.

The candidate filing deadline for major party candidates is Feb. 13, so it remains to be seen just how many of the dozen candidates follow through with the filing process. It is a good bet that the field will narrow once the filing deadline arrives.

Rep. Letlow was elected to the US House in a 2021 special election after her husband, Luke Letlow, won the 2020 election. Unfortunately, he would die of COVID before he was able to take office. After winning the initial special election, Rep. Letlow was easily re-elected in 2022 and 2024, averaging 65.2 percent of the vote.

With Letlow leaving the House, it means there are 54 open seats with three vacancies moving toward special elections. She is the 29th Republican not to seek re-election and 14th retiring House member to enter a 2026 US Senate race.

The battle for her 5th District House seat becomes interesting in that the district could significantly change depending upon SCOTUS’s ruling on the Louisiana redistricting case. Therefore, who might run to succeed Rep. Letlow won’t be completely settled until the high court justices make their decision and district boundaries are set.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) scheduled the special election to replace the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) concurrently with the state’s June 2 regular primary. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two will run off on Aug. 4. At this point, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R) is the only announced candidate.

Surprisingly, the special election will occur in the current 1st District and not the new 1st that voters adopted in the November special election. Republicans will hold the seat in the special election, but Democrats will likely convert it in November under the new lines that clearly favor their party.

The other two special elections, TX-18 and NJ-11, are scheduled for Jan. 31 and Feb. 5, respectively. The Texas seat is in the final runoff stage while the New Jersey district will host partisan primaries in early February and fill the seat in a special general election on April 16. Democrats are expected to win both of the latter elections.

NJ-11: Special Election Heating Up

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 21, 2026

House

New Jersey Congressional Districts map (click on image to see larger interactive map on Dave’s Redistricting Map.)

The New Jersey special election campaign is well underway with the major candidates launching attack ads against each other and, of course, President Trump.

Northern New Jersey voters will choose their congressional nominees on Feb. 5 to begin the process of replacing former Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) in the Garden State’s 11th Congressional District. Sherrill was sworn in as New Jersey’s Governor yesterday.

The real battle is in the Democratic primary, since the eventual party nominee will be a heavy favorite to win the seat in the special general election set for April 16. Eleven Democrats are actively campaigning, and the major contenders appear to be former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, ex-7th District Rep. Tom Malinowski, Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, and Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett.

Gill is attracting attention for his ad that calls out former Rep. Malinowski for making millions of dollars in stock transactions when he was in the House during the Covid pandemic. Prior to his defeat in 2022, the House Ethics Commission was investigating the Malinowski transactions and ruled that he should have reported his gains on mandatory financial disclosure statements.

The Malinowski campaign responds with an ad saying he will fight Trump and, as he says, “… the billionaires screwing people and the insurance companies denying coverage, [and] the big tech companies hurting our kids.” The former Congressman says he “can do this because I refuse to take corporate PAC money.”

The Malinowski campaign appears vulnerable to the stock transaction attacks because the very companies he claims to be opposing are the type of industrial entities that he invested with to personally profit. Therefore, Gill and others attacking Malinowski because they perceive him as a front-runner may have the necessary political ammunition to deny him the party nomination.

Tahesha Way served as New Jersey’s Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State. Now-former Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed her to both positions. She is spending her ad time attacking Trump and claims she is the only candidate to have “beaten Trump.” The reference is to winning an election law case against the Trump Administration.

All of the major candidates will be well funded, and the Democratic primary race will likely attract a great deal of attention as we approach Election Day. The Republicans have an unopposed candidate for their nomination. Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway will face the eventual Democratic nominee.

It remains to be seen if the Republicans will mount a major challenge in this district. The seat has transformed over the years from one that typically elected Republicans to one that is now reliably Democratic.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the NJ-11 partisan lean is 55.6D – 42.5R. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated President Trump there, 53.1 – 44.6 percent. In her two elections under the present district configuration, then-Rep. Sherrill averaged 57.7 percent of the vote in a pair of largely non-competitive elections.

The 11th District’s partisan voting history suggests the seat could at some point again become competitive. Considering, however, the Republicans’ rather poor performances in special elections around the country this year where their candidates are typically underperforming either as compared to the Trump number, the partisan lean factor, or both, it is doubtful that Hathaway can mount a serious run to score an upset victory on April 16.

New Jersey’s 11th CD lies in the northern part of the state and encompasses parts of three counties, Essex, Morris, and Passaic. The district is anchored in Morris County where the 11th covers approximately three-quarters of the local population. Another approximately 300,000 individuals reside in Essex County, with the remaining 80,000-plus more in Passaic. The main population centers are the cities of Morristown, Montclair, and Broomfield, the latter two located just northwest of Newark.

The next special congressional election comes on Jan. 31 in Texas, where Houston voters will choose a successor between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, both Democrats.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) previously announced that the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) for Aug. 4, the latest date possible under state law. Voters in the special election will choose who will serve out the remaining term of the late Congressman.

Florida Rep. Neal Dunn to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 15, 2026

House

Florida Rep. Neal Dunn (R)

The cavalcade of House retirements continues. Five-term Florida Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) announced Tuesday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Rep. Dunn, a physician, served in the Army Medical Corps for 11 years before coming to the Florida Panhandle where he founded two medical facilities and a bank, all prior to his initial election to the US House in 2016.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) indicates he will call a special session in April for congressional redistricting, so we can expect to see some different district configurations result in northern Florida. Rep. Dunn’s open 2nd District will likely become more Republican under new construction since the GOP map drawers will want to secure the district for a new party nominee.

Rep. Dunn’s 2nd District currently stretches from west of Panama City to the city of Perry at the easternmost point of the CD and through the capital city of Tallahassee, including all of Leon County. The 2nd features a 54.3R – 43.7D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App statistics), a distinctly Republican seat but one with a weaker GOP inclination than most of the Sunshine State’s northern congressional districts. It would be an easy territory swap for the new map drawers to include more Republicans from the western 1st District in exchange for a commensurate amount of Democratic territory moving from the 2nd to the 1st.

Click on image to go to interactive map of Florida CDs on DavesRedistrictingApp.

Congressional districts 1-7, and 11 and 12 comprise northern Florida and all are Republican held. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the Republican partisan lean factors within these nine districts range from 67.5R (FL-1; Rep. Jimmy Patronis) to 52.8R (FL-7; Rep. Cory Mills).

The weaker districts are 7, 4 (Rep. Aaron Bean-R), and Rep. Dunn’s 2nd CD. Expect all three to gain Republicans under a new draw with the three strongest northern Florida GOP seats, the 1st, 6th, and 5th (Rep. John Rutherford-R), potentially giving up Republicans to strengthen the others.

The 6th District, which freshman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) represents, may remain close to its current configuration because he is the candidate who won the special election when then-Rep. Mike Waltz resigned to join the Trump Administration. Rep. Fine actually represented a state Senate district about 100 miles from the 6th CD, so keeping this seat as strong as possible will be a GOP goal to make sure that Fine has a viable opportunity to solidify his new political base.

Watch for a major redraw of District 7. Here, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), who is under a scandal cloud and holds the weakest Republican seat in northern Florida, is staring at a difficult re-election. He already has two Republican primary challengers with several other possibilities depending upon how the new 7th is drawn.

Because the current 7th District partisan lean is only 52.8R – 45.0D, without redistricting Rep. Mills can expect a credible Democrat to challenge him. Six Democrats, including former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton, are preparing campaigns, but this field could also drastically change once a new configuration becomes public.

It will be interesting to see if the map drawers decide to draw the seat with Mills-favorable Republicans or design a new 7th so another Republican likely wins the party nomination, thus jettisoning Rep. Mills because of his scandal trouble.

With Rep. Dunn retiring, the open-seat count now grows to 53 (28 Republican seats; 20 Democratic; and five new seats created through California and Texas redistricting). Of the 48 current members not seeking re-election, only 19 are retiring from elective politics. The remainder, excluding the two members who have passed away, are running for different offices.

California Rep. Julia Brownley
Will Not Seek Re-Election

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 13, 2026

House

Seven-term California Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/ Ventura County)

As the new year begins, congressional retirement announcements are increasing. Late last week, seven-term California Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/ Ventura County) announced that she will not seek re-election this year.

Immediately after the Congresswoman made her political intentions public, state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) declared her congressional candidacy with Rep. Brownley’s endorsement.

Brownley served three terms in the California Assembly prior to winning her first election to the Ventura County-anchored 26th Congressional District in 2012. In her seven congressional races, the Representative averaged 56.8 precent of the general election vote, which is the District 26 projected Democratic partisan lean number.

The new 26th saw only minor changes in the 2025 redistricting map. Prior to voters adopting the new plan, the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated a 56.8D – 41.2R partisan lean. The new 26th, which stretches a bit further east into Los Angeles County largely for the purpose of making freshman Rep. George Whitesides (D-Agua Dulce/Santa Clarita) 27th District slightly more Democratic, has a partisan lean of 56.7D – 42.5R.

The new 26th is moving closer to the competitive realm, but it is still wholly within the universe of distinctly Democratic California congressional districts. Under the 2022 redistricting map, Rep. David Valadao (D-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic California district to elect a Republican. Under that plan, the CA-22 partisan lean was 55.5D – 42.6R.

Jacqui Irwin was first elected to the state Assembly in 2014. Under the California term limit law that allows members to serve up to 12 years in one chamber, Irwin is ineligible to seek re-election. Prior to winning her seat in the legislature, Assemblywoman Irwin served two terms as Mayor of Thousand Oaks and three on the Thousand Oaks City Council. She begins her 2026 congressional campaign as the favorite to win the seat.

The 26th District covers about 80 precent of Ventura County, sharing with District 24 (Rep. Salud Carbajal-D) and veteran Democrat Brad Sherman’s CD-32. The CD-26 remaining constituency resides in Los Angeles County. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the district over President Trump 56-41 precent, which is consistent with the regional partisan lean.

Rep. Brownley’s retirement announcement brings the total open seat count for the next election to 52. She is the 20th Democrat to leave the House.

A total of 18 members from both parties are retiring from elective politics (17) or have resigned from the House (1). Thirteen departing Representatives are running for the Senate and another 13 are seeking the Governorship of their respective state. One member, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), is running for Texas Attorney General. Two seats are vacant due to the incumbent’s death.

Though articles have been written about the Republican exodus from the House, in actuality, more Democrats (11) are retiring from elective politics than Republicans (7). Obviously, a greater number of Republicans are seeking a different office.

Five new seats were created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas. The latter state has three new vacant seats, while two California Democratic members are leaving their current congressional districts to run in another CD under the new map’s boundaries.

Sacramento area Rep. Ami Bera is leaving District 6 to run for election in CD-3, while Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) departs from the 38th CD to seek election in new District 41.

Rep. Steny Hoyer to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Monday, January 12, 2026

House

Former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville)

First winning a special congressional election in early 1981, 23-term US Representative and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) stated in an interview with a Washington Post reporter that he will not seek re-election next year.

At the end of this Congress, Hoyer, 86 years old, will complete just under 57 years in elective office counting his time in the US House and the Maryland state Senate. After losing a race for Lieutenant Governor in 1978 for which he left the state Senate, Hoyer served a three-year stint as an appointed member of the Maryland Board of Higher Education.

During his four-plus decades in the House the Congressman served as an elected member of the Democratic leadership for 26 years, holding the positions of Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman, Caucus Chairman, Minority Whip, and Majority Leader. He also served three years as the Maryland state Senate President.

Including Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-CA) death last week, the House open seat count now grows to 51; 27 of these seats are Republican held, 19 Democratic, with five new openings created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Of the members not seeking re-election in 2026, a total of 14 are running for Governor, 13 for US Senate, and one seeking a different office (Rep. Chip Roy running for Texas Attorney General). Two seats are vacant due to the member passing away (Rep. LaMalfa and Texas Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner), while 16, like Rep. Hoyer, are retiring from elective politics.

Four of the open seats are vacant and will be filled in special elections before the regular cycle contests. The TX-18 seat, open because of Rep. Turner’s death, will be filled in a runoff election on Jan. 31.

New Jersey Governor-Elect Mikie Sherrill’s (D) 11th Congressional District will host a partisan primary election on Feb. 5 and a special general on April 16.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) this week scheduled the special jungle primary to replace resigned Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) for March 10, with a runoff if necessary, because no one receives majority support in the initial election, for April 7.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will soon schedule the special election to replace the late Rep. LaMalfa in the state’s 1st CD.

Maryland’s 5th Congressional District occupies most of the Chesapeake Bay’s western shore region. It contains all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s counties, about one-third of Anne Arundel County, and approximately one-quarter of Prince George’s County. It also houses the Waldorf, La Plata, Upper Marlboro, and Mechanicsville population centers.

MD-5 is strongly Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 60.9D – 36.4R partisan lean. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here in 2024 with a 65.5 – 32.2 percent margin. In 2020, President Biden carried the district with an even more lopsided 67.4 – 30.9 percent spread.

A total of eight Democrats had announced a primary challenge to Rep. Hoyer, but none appeared capable of launching a major campaign. We are now likely to see several prominent Democrats come to the forefront to compete for a position that will be open for the first time in 46 years.

Though the 5th will remain in the Democratic column for the general election, we can expect to see a very competitive open party primary to be decided on June 23. The Maryland candidate filing deadline is Feb. 24.

Rep. Doug LaMalfa Passes Away

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 7, 2026

House

California Congressman Doug LaMalfa

California Congressman Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) suddenly passed away during yesterday’s early hours, marking the fourth time a member of the House has died during the current congressional biennial. The other 119th Congress deceased members are Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connolly (D-VA).

Rep. LaMalfa’s death will lead to a special election and likely in California’s new 1st Congressional District. Running in the new district will give the Democrats a distinct advantage to convert the seat.

According to the redistricting Proposition 50 verbiage that voters passed in a Nov. 4 special election, the new plan would be in effect from the beginning of 2026 until the California Citizens Redistricting Commission redraws the map after the 2030 census. Therefore, it is a virtual certainty that the special election will be held in the new district, though seeing a lawsuit arguing otherwise could be forthcoming. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will schedule the special election to replace the late Congressman.

LaMalfa, after serving three terms in the state Assembly and being elected to the state Senate, claimed the 1st District congressional seat in 2012. He was re-elected six times, including November of 2024. In his seven congressional elections, LaMalfa averaged 59.5 percent of the vote.

It is arguable that Rep. LaMalfa received the worst draw of any California Republican incumbent when comparing the new 1st District to the 1st CD from which he was elected. The northern California draw was largely conceived to give state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) the opportunity of running for the US House.

Under the California term limits law, McGuire is ineligible to seek re-election to the state Senate this year. Considering that Gov. Newsom needed a two-thirds vote in each legislative chamber to place the redistricting map on the special election ballot as a referendum, a favorable 1st District was drawn to benefit the Senate President at the expense of Rep. LaMalfa.

The change is dramatic. The new 1st contains only 43 percent of the territory that constituted the previous 1st District, with 57 percent of the new constituency coming from the Democratic districts of Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Raphael) and Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/ Clear Lake). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 1st District partisan lean moves from a 60.2R – 37.7D Republican advantage to a pro-Democratic edge of 55.2D – 44.1R. Therefore, the chances of the Republicans retaining the seat, even if Rep. LaMalfa would have run for re-election, are for them less than favorable.

The death of LaMalfa and Monday’s official resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) leaves the Republican majority margin at 218-213, with each party yielding two vacant seats.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced yesterday that the special election to replace Rep. Greene is scheduled for March 10. All candidates will be placed on a jungle election ballot. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers, irrespective of partisan affiliation, will advance to a runoff election no later than 28 days after the initial vote. As the safest Republican seat in Georgia (DRA partisan lean: 69.2R – 28.9D) the GOP will retain the seat in the upcoming special election.

On Jan. 31, Houston, Texas voters will decide between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) who died last March. Regardless of the outcome, both candidates will then advance into a March 3 regular Democratic primary election, though one will be an incumbent. There, they will face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) and others in a reconfigured 18th District under the new Texas redistricting map. Should no candidate receive majority support in the regular primary, a runoff will occur on May 26.

In northern New Jersey, voters will go to the polls in partisan primaries on Feb. 5 to choose nominees for the purpose of replacing Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) in the 11th Congressional District. The special general election is scheduled for April 16. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat. Once this election is complete, the House will have a full complement of 435 members for the first time since Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13, 2025.

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year; Weekly Political Synopsis

Just a quick last post this holiday season before we take a break till the New Year.

All the best for a wonderful holiday season.

We’ll be back on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026!

By Jim Ellis — Dec. 24, 2025

Senate

Minnesota — While the Republican Party leadership waits for retired national sports reporter Michele Tafoya to make a decision about running for the Senate, former GOP state chairman David Hann announced that he will enter the race. Hann, who was ousted as chairman and lost his state Senate seat when running for re-election, does not have a strong base within the party. Therefore, he is unlikely to be a major threat. It will be important to watch unfolding developments around the Minnesota government benefit fraud scandal to see if the Democrats become weakened.

The Democratic Senate primary features Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). At this point, the eventual Democratic nominee will continue to have the inside track toward winning the general election.

House

CT-1 — The Democratic primary challenger field opposing veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) just got smaller. Former Southington Councilman Jack Perry ended his campaign because he did not see a path to victory. Three Larson intra-party challengers remain, however. They are: former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford), and Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

This is obviously a strong field, but the number of candidates in a plurality primary system could split the anti-incumbent vote to the point where Rep. Larson wins re-election with a small plurality. The Connecticut candidate filing deadline is June 9 for the Aug. 11 primary election. Therefore, much time remains for this race to develop.

FL-23 — Republicans have recruited a strong challenger to two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland). Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R) announced that he will challenge Moskowitz next year. With redistricting set to happen during the next legislative session, it is clear that the GOP map drawers will add Republicans to the 23rd CD. Under the current map, the partisan lean is 52.3D – 45.5R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculation) and Rep. Moskowitz has averaged just 51.9 percent in his two elections. Therefore, this will very likely be a race to monitor throughout the campaign cycle.

NC-3 — While the North Carolina Republican redistricting plan was geared toward making Rep. Don Davis’ 1st CD more Republican, a seat that became more Democratic is the neighboring 3rd District of Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville). The original District 3 partisan lean was 57.2R – 40.7D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Under the new plan that makes CD-1 more Republican, CD-3 drops to 52.8R – 45.2D, a net swing of 8.9 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Not surprisingly, two prominent Democrats jumped into the District 3 race as candidate filing closed. Ex-state Rep. Raymond Smith and the former CEO of The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America organization, Allison Jaslow, both entered the Democratic primary race. The winner of the March 3 primary will then face Rep. Murphy in the general election. Though this is district is more competitive, it is still a Republican seat, and the Congressman will again be favored for re-election.

Governor

California — We see another poll release that finds the large California open jungle qualifying election field again closely bunched. The California Issues Forum just released the results of their FM3 poll (Nov. 30-Dec. 7; 632 likely California jungle election voters; live interview & online) and actually found two Republicans leading the large group.

Former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) leads with 18 percent, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (R), Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore), former Rep. Katie Porter (D), billionaire Tom Steyer (D), former US Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D), and previous Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). After Hilton’s 18 percent support figure, the remaining candidates break down respectively at 17-17-13-6-3-3 percent preference numbers.

There is a scenario, though unlikely yet this poll result shows it could possibly happen, that the large number of Democratic candidates split the vote and the two Republicans advance to the general election with small percentages. The California qualifying election is June 2. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained, advance to the general election. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Ohio — For the second time in a week-long period, a newly released poll finds the presumptive Ohio open race gubernatorial nominees deadlocked. The T. Roosevelt Action group, an organization representing hunters and anglers, publicized their poll results (Dec. 3-8; 603 likely Ohio general election voters) that project Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy leading ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D) by a slight 45-43 percent count. Last week, Emerson College (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Acton holding a similar 46-45 percent edge.

The purpose of the T. Roosevelt Action poll was to test a ballot proposition regarding hunting and fishing, but they also included a Governor’s race query on their questionnaire. The Ohio Governor’s race is open because incumbent Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.