Category Archives: House

The Texas Surprises

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

Texas Elections

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard,” certainly applies to the 2026 Texas federal office slate. Now that candidate filing is closed, the clouded political situation is becoming a bit clearer.

Texas has a unique filing system that makes following which candidate is running where confusing. Instead of filing with a government agency, the candidates file with their political party. Yet, the process is further complicated.

Candidates filing for offices where the jurisdiction covers more than one county turn their qualifying documents in to their state party office. If a district is fully contained within a single county, the candidates file with their county political party. Once the paperwork is received, the political party entities eventually report the qualified candidates’ names and particulars to the Secretary of State. Therefore, the process takes longer to determine who will be on the ballot than it does in most other states.

In the Senate race, we now have a clear picture for the March 3 partisan primaries. For the Republicans, amidst minor candidates the three major participants, Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), are vying for the party nomination. This race is expected to be close and moving toward a runoff, which is necessary if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote. At this point, it appears that Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance to the secondary election.

For the Democrats, we see a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Five minor candidates have filed, and it is unclear just how many will qualify for the ballot. Irrespective of these latter candidates’ presence, it is likely that we will see either Rep. Crockett or state Rep. Talarico claim the party nomination on March 3.

In the House delegation, 11 seats are open with the addition of TX-30, the seat that Rep. Crockett is leaving to run statewide. It appeared that Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) would move into that district, but he surprisingly chose not to file. Instead, Veasey decided to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive) where he will face a Republican incumbent and other significant candidates.

The Veasey move allows Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch), who sees her 32nd District transform into a Republican domain and stretch into East Texas, to run in District 33, which is fully contained within Dallas County. Her major obstacle to winning a second term in Congress is former Representative and 2024 US Senate Democratic nominee Colin Allred. Though announcing for the Senate in October, Allred instead changed his mind at the last minute and filed to return to the House, this time in District 33. Also in the race is former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilman Domingo Garcia. Therefore, the top two candidates falling into a runoff becomes a possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will easily win the seat in the general election.

Another new development is the return to the political wars of former Congressman Steve Stockman (R). He has filed in new open District 9. Stockman was twice elected to Congress in non-consecutive elections. He was convicted of violating certain financial laws, but President Trump commuted his 10-year prison sentence. The other major candidate within the crowded field is state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

With 11 filed candidates in the CD-9 race, advancing to a runoff election is probable. It remains to be seen how many of the filed candidates qualify for the ballot. Under the new redistricting plan, the 9th District should be one of the seats that Republicans gain.

Another surprising move came in Houston’s 18th District. This seat is currently in special election mode, with Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) vying to replace the late Congressman Sylvester Turner (D). Immediately after the special election, it was thought the winner would then face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a battle for the new 18th District. The regular primary is scheduled for March 3 after a special election winner is declared on Jan. 31.

Only Menefee, however, filed in new District 18. Therefore, should Edwards win the special election, she will only serve the balance of the current term. Win or lose on Jan. 31, Menefee will advance into the regular Democratic primary against Rep. Green.

The truly surprising facet from the Texas congressional filings is the fact that only two state legislators, Cain and state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio; open new District 35), entered one of the 11 open-seat congressional campaigns. Therefore, the Texas delegation will feature a large number of incoming freshmen entering the House with no legislative experience.

Texas: Crockett Announces for Senate, Allred Moves Campaign to House

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

Senate/House

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

As expected, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) just as candidate filing was closing in Texas, yesterday entered the US Senate race; unexpectedly, former Congressman Colin Allred, who announced his Senate campaign in October, dropped his statewide bid and filed in the new open 33rd US House District.

Also, as he promised, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Fort Worth) left his 33rd CD to file in Rep Crockett’s 30th District. The new 33rd is now fully contained in Dallas County, thus robbing Veasey of his Tarrant County base. The new 30th ventures into Tarrant suggesting Rep. Veasey believes his re-election chances are better in CD-30.

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) eschews her 32nd District, which is now a Republican seat that stretches from Dallas County well into East Texas, to run in the 33rd. This creates a competitive Democratic primary between her and Allred.

There is some speculation that Rep. Johnson could have switched to the 24th CD in yesterday’s filing to challenge Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving), thus avoiding a Democratic primary. It remains to be seen where candidates are running until the political party entities release the qualified candidates’ names.

By running for the Senate, Rep. Crockett has certainly upset the Democratic apple cart. The national party leaders had hoped to find Allred facing a field of minor candidates similar to those opposing him in 2024 when he easily won the statewide party nomination. Allred, then risking a safely Democratic 32nd district that Johnson would later win, lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) by just over eight percentage points after polling suggested the contest would be much closer.

The Democratic leadership plans were thwarted this year when state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a media star among Texas political prognosticators and commentators, announced for the Senate and immediately began performing well in research surveys that pitted him opposite Allred.

Once the Senate race pollsters began to include Rep. Crockett, it became clear that it was she, and not Allred as the party leaders had hoped, who was consistently leading the candidate field.

Now, the Democratic primary will feature a competitive battle between Rep. Crockett and state Rep. Talarico. Since the field will likely evolve into a two-way contest, it is probable that a runoff will not be necessary, meaning the Democrats will probably see a nominee emerge in the March 3 party primary.

On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn, running for a fifth six-year term, faces Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Early polling suggests this race will proceed to a May 26 runoff election from the March 3 primary.

At this point, it appears Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance, but Rep. Hunt is hoping to come from the outside as a positive alternative to what promises to be a negative battle between his two principal opponents.

There are 10 open US House districts in the Texas delegation, but the full candidate complement for each of those races won’t be known until later in the week.

Uniquely, Texas candidates file for office with their political party and not a government agency. In a multi-county race, candidates file with their state party. If the office for which a candidate is running is fully contained within a county, the competing individuals file with their local county political party.

In terms of incumbent primary challenges, most US House members have drawn minor primary opposition. The first of three serious March 3 intra-party skirmishes appear in the Houston area’s District 2 where four-term Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble), state Rep. Steve Toth (R-Spring), and several others will compete. The question here is whether Crenshaw can avoid being forced into a runoff.

The second primary incumbent challenge to watch is again TX-23. In 2024, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) survived a Republican runoff defeat by just 734 votes opposite businessman Brandon Herrera. The 2026 contest will feature a re-match between the two, and another close election is expected.

Additionally, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) has drawn a significant Democratic challenger in a newly configured District 29. Former state Representative and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson is challenging Rep. Garcia for the party nomination, and this race has the potential of developing into a serious campaign within a significantly changed Harris County congressional district.

Some of the more interesting general election projected pairings come in South Texas. In District 15, two-term Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) will likely face regional entertainer Bobby Pulido (D) in a district that changed very little under the new map. Rep. De La Cruz was re-elected in 2024 with 57 percent of the vote.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump just pardoned from a federal indictment, will likely face Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina (R) in a district that is actually 10.7 data points more Democratic, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization calculations. The partisan lean numbers best explain why Rep. Cuellar again filed as a Democrat after the Trump pardon.

In new District 34, a coastal seat anchored in Brownsville, we are likely to see Round 3 between Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and former Rep. Mayra Flores (R). The 34th is now 18.4 data points more Republican, and since the 2024 race recorded a tight 51 to 49 percent finish, Flores’ chances, assuming she wins the party nomination, are therefore significantly enhanced.

Much more to come on the unfolding Texas political situation later in the week when the qualifying candidates for ballot placement are declared official.

Rep. Issa to Remain in California

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

US House

California Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego)

There had been some speculation that veteran Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) was going to travel to Texas to seek re-election in the new TX-32 district since the California redistricting plan has turned his safely Republican CD into one that is highly competitive.

At the end of last week, Rep. Issa announced that he will seek re-election and will do so in CA-48 despite the district now having a Democratic tilt.

The US Supreme Court approved the new Texas map late last week and declared that the 2025 plan will be in place for the 2026 election. The decision also affects the new California map since the pending lawsuits in both cases involved racial gerrymandering claims, meaning the voter-approved new Golden State map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 elections.

The justices timed their ruling to allow candidate filing in Texas to conclude today. Several key political determinations dominoes will fall, the most significant of which revolves around Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Dallas) decision to file for the Senate or House.

In a related choice, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who sees his 33rd District now located wholly within Dallas County thus eliminating his Tarrant County political base, says he will file in Crockett’s District 30 if she announces for the Senate. If Crockett decides to remain in the House, Veasey will either file for District 33 or enter the race for Tarrant County Judge (labeled County Executive in other places).

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson’s (D-Farmers Branch) 32nd District is transformed into a Republican seat that stretches into East Texas. Her plan is to reportedly file in District 33.

While California’s candidate filing will remain open until March 6 (March 11 if the incumbent in a particular race does not file), individuals are making decisions about where to seek election; hence, Rep. Issa’s plan to run in new District 48.

Under the 2021 California Citizens Redistricting Commission map that the legislature and voters replaced this year, Rep. Issa’s San Diego County-anchored 48th District held a partisan lean (according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization) of 58.3R – 39.8D. Under the new plan, that ratio moves to 50.6D – 48.7R, a net swing of 20.5 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Though this makes re-election much more difficult for Rep. Issa, he still has a fighting chance of defeating a Democrat in the general election. Several California districts with more lopsided Democratic partisan leans have elected Republican Representatives. Therefore, this seat likely moves from a Safe Republican rating to Toss-Up.

In comments posted in an X tweet, Rep. Issa also made some suggestions about other members in his delegation, most specifically the proposed pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). At this point, both have announced for new District 40 (DRA partisan lean: 57.0R – 42.3D), but Rep. Issa was suggesting that Rep. Kim instead run in new District 45 where she would challenge freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange County).

From a Republican Party standpoint, such a move would make sense. Ironically, the state’s two most vulnerable Democratic members, the pair who won the closest US House elections in 2024 — Reps. Adam Gray (D-Merced; winning by 187 votes) and Tran (winning by 653 votes) — actually see their Democratic partisan ratios surprisingly reduced under the new map.

In District 13, Rep. Gray views a partisan swing that moves a net 4.3 data points in the Republicans’ favor, making the partisan lean, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, of 52.4D – 46.9R. In 2022, Republican John Duarte won the 13th District that featured a partisan lean of 54.0D – 44.2R.

In southern California’s 45th CD, former Rep. Michelle Steel (R), who earlier announced that she will not return to run again in 2026, carried the seat in 2022 with a DRA partisan lean of 52.2D – 45.9R. The new 45th posts a 51.7D – 47.5R partisan lean, again suggesting that a Republican general election finalist will be competitive.

With the Supreme Court making the political situations clearer in at least the two most populous states, final 2026 electoral decisions in California and Texas can now be made with all candidates confident of which map will be in place. We will carry further analysis of the Texas situation after candidate filing closes later today.

46 Open US House Seats With Rep. Nehls’ Retirement Announcement

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

US House

Texas Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) / Photo: abc13.com

After what will be only three terms in Congress, Texas Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) surprisingly announced last weekend that he will not seek re-election next year.

Though Nehls is under a House Ethics Committee investigation under allegations that he used some of his campaign money for personal gain, there was unsurprisingly no mention of that situation in his retirement announcement. Now that Rep. Nehls has indicated he won’t seek re-election, it is possible the probe will be dropped.

With Rep. Nehls’ 22nd District now coming open, a total of 10 Texas US House districts will have no incumbent for the 2026 election, assuming the 2025 map remains in place. As you will remember during the past 10 days, a three-judge federal panel, on a 2-1 vote, declared the new map a racial gerrymander. Immediately, however, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, administrator for the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals where Texas lies, placed a temporary stay on the lower court ruling.

It is unclear what further action the high court will take, but the odds are strong that the 2025 map will be in place at the Texas candidate filing deadline, which is Dec. 8.

Under the new map, the 22nd remains a Republican district. The 2025 draw encompasses parts of the CD’s traditional three counties, Brazoria, Ft. Bend, and Harris. According to the newly calculated partisan lean from Dave’s Redistricting App, the district yields a reliable Republican calculation of 60.0R – 38.0D. The partisan lean tracks with President Trump’s 2024 performance as he carried the district over Kamala Harris with a 59-39 percent margin.

Immediately upon the Nehls’ retirement announcement becoming public, the Congressman’s twin brother, former County Constable and retired US Army Colonel Trever Nehls, announced his candidacy.

Prior to winning election to Congress in 2020, Rep. Nehls served for eight years as the Ft. Bend County Sheriff. Before earning the Sheriff’s position in 2012, Nehls was himself one of four Ft. Bend County Constables, a position he held from 2004 to 2012.

An interesting phenomenon has unfolded among the Texas open seats. Of the 10 districts where no incumbent is running, assuming the 2025 map receives favorable action from the Supreme Court, a total of six of the districts feature no state legislator and few local officials venturing forth to become a congressional candidate. The number does not include what might happen with a developing open TX-22 field.

Some Texas observers believe this unusual situation is because many legislators believe they can accomplish more remaining in the state House or Senate rather than as a freshman US Representative in a tightly divided chamber within a highly partisan atmosphere. Regardless of the reason, we will see a large number of freshmen Texas US House members coming to Washington at the beginning of 2027 with very little legislative experience.

Nationally, the Nehls retirement decision brings to 46 the number of open seats headed to the next election. On Tuesday, the open-seat race in Tennessee was decided, thus reducing the open seat contingent to 45. Of that latter group, 23 of the open seats are currently Republican held and 17 Democratic, with five new seats created from the 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Of the 46 open seats after tomorrow, 14 of the departing members are running for Governor of their respective states, 13 are retiring from elective politics, 11 are announced US Senate candidates, five new districts were created in redistricting including forcing two California incumbents to seek election in different districts, and one seat each from a member who is running for another office (Texas Attorney General), resigned (Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene; R-GA) and passed away (Rep. Sylvester Turner; D-TX).

Special Elections Update

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

Special Elections

With the TN-7 special election now complete, three more contests are pegged for the first quarter of next year. The upcoming special elections will be held in Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas.

TN-7

This week’s Tennessee result saw the 7th District electorate performing as the voting history projected, thus quelling the Democrats’ quest for the upset that certain polls suggested was possible. The 54-44 percent result from what will likely be a touch over 180,000 votes cast when all ballots are counted – a large number for a special congressional election – was equivalent to the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 55.1R – 42.2D.

Most importantly, from the Republicans’ perspective, the party apparatus proved in this instance, that they could turn out the base vote and a sizable number of the casual Trump voters, meaning those who typically only vote when the President is on the ballot. Repeatedly doing so in future elections will be a critical factor in determining whether the party will have success in the regular midterm elections next year.

GA-14

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will resign on Jan. 5. At that point, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will schedule the special election to replace the outgoing Congresswoman in the northwestern district. GA-14 the safest Peach State Republican seat. The district stretches from just outside Marietta to the Tennessee border.

It is believed that Gov. Kemp will calendar the jungle primary for a date in March. Under Georgia special election law, all candidates are on the initial ballot with the top two finishers, irrespective of party affiliation, advancing to the runoff election in the likely event that no contender attracts majority support. To comply with state law, the secondary vote must occur within 28 days of the initial election. Therefore, it is probable that this seat will be filled before the end of April.

A total of 13 Republicans and two Democrats have already announced their candidacies, but the two most talked-about potential candidates, state Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), have yet to formally declare.

It is probable that two Republicans will advance into the special runoff election. Republicans will hold this seat.

NJ-11

Gov.-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) has resigned her congressional seat, thus leading to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) scheduling a Feb. 5 partisan primary and an April 16 special general election.

Candidate filing has closed, and 13 Democrats will be on the Feb. 5 ballot vying for the party nomination. Within the large group is former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, ex-Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, and five local officials, with the remainder coming from the private sector or political activist class. Only one Republican filed, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, so he is guaranteed to win the party nomination, meaning a ballot slot for the special general election.

The partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) for this district, which redistricting has made much more Democratic in the previous two decades, is 55.6D – 42.5R. Therefore, it is clear the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track toward winning the special election and holding the seat for the party.

TX-18

The longest special election cycle to fill a congressional vacancy will culminate with a Jan. 31 runoff contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D). Since this is a double Democratic runoff, there is no doubt that the party will hold the seat for the duration of the current Congress.

Regardless of whether Menefee or Edwards wins the Jan. 31 vote, they will immediately find themselves embroiled in a new campaign against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston). Since it is likely that the new Texas congressional map will be in effect for the 2026 midterm elections, the Houston area sees a major reconfiguration of its congressional districts.

The new plan collapsed most of Rep. Green’s 9th CD into a new 18th District, with much of the current 18th going into Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) new 29th CD. The regular cycle Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, so the eventual runoff winner and loser will find themselves immediately competing in a new campaign.

The regular term candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8. At this point, neither Menefee nor Edwards have filed for the new term, but both are expected to do so. This means that the loser of the Jan. 31 runoff could conceivably be an active candidate for the March 3 regular primary election, which could force Rep. Green into a runoff with either the new incumbent or the just-defeated runoff participant.

While the special election will end on Jan. 31, the campaign for a full term will already be entering political prime time.

TN-7: Republican Van Epps Wins

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

Special Election

Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night in the TN-7 special election.

In what was turning into the most important special congressional election of the latter half of 2025, former state cabinet official and Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night over state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) securing the district for the GOP and avoiding a Democratic partisan upset of national proportions.

The last published poll, from Emerson College (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques), found only a two-point spread in Van Epps’ favor, 48-46 percent. Outside allies from both parties individually spent seven figures to promote their ideological choice understanding that the victory stakes were becoming unusually high for what should be a reliable Republican district.

Though the 7th CD was viewed as a safely Republican seat, Democrats, riding high with their big victories from the Nov. 4 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, believed they had a legitimate chance to record an upset win.

Though Van Epps did not reach the 60 percent level that President Trump and resigned Rep. Mark Green (R) both attained in the 2024 general election, last night’s result was very close to the district’s partisan lean.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.2D partisan division for TN-7, which is close to where the candidates landed last night. The district performed as expected. Van Epps carried 13 of the district’s 14 counties, losing only Davidson, which is the Democrats’ base and contains Rep. Behn’s state House district in the city of Nashville.

Before 2021 redistricting, the 7th was more Republican. Democrats were added to the 7th in the most recent redraw to make the adjacent 5th District winnable for a GOP candidate, thereby lessening the 7th’s Republican strength.

Turnout for this special election was extremely high: 179,770 votes counted with 99 percent of the precincts reporting according to the latest available report. Typically, special congressional elections draw around 100,000 voters. Here, the high spending from both sides contributed to the large turnout and also led to the Republicans successfully turning out its Trump vote base, something that was routinely not happening in other 2025 elections.

In those contests, mostly at the state legislative level we saw a few major Democratic upsets occur. Seeing such results was evidence that the Trump voter base failed to participate in sufficient numbers to carry Republican candidates in elections without the President on the ballot. The TN-7 win may give the Republican strategists the formula they need for improved GOP performances in next year’s midterm elections.

The House partisan division now moves to 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, with two Democratic vacancies. The 18th District of Texas remains without an incumbent (death of Rep. Sylvester Turner) until the Jan. 31 runoff election. New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned her 11th District US House seat after being elected her state’s Governor.

On Jan. 5, the Republican conference recedes to 219 when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is scheduled to resign. The House will likely return to a full 435-member compliment in April when the projected special election calendars will be set for the purpose of filling the latter vacancies.

TN-7: Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

Special Election

TN-7 candidates in today’s special election: Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) / Republican Matt Van Epps.

Signs are prevalent that today’s special election in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will be closer than the region’s voting history suggests.

An Emerson College pre-election survey (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Republican Matt Van Epps, a former cabinet official in Gov. Bill Lee’s (R) administration, leading state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) by only a 48-46 percent margin. This, in a district that both President Trump and resigned Congressman Mark Green (R) carried with 60 percent of the vote in 2024.

Both parties see outside allies pouring in money to help their favored candidates, so the political advertising has been intense. Turnout, as always, will be the key. The early voting numbers show Democratic participation up in the Davidson County (Nashville) precincts, while Republican early vote turnout looks to be below their previous winning level benchmarks in most of the outlying counties.

Analysis parallels have been made between this campaign and the special election held last April in Florida’s 6th Congressional District. There, Republican Randy Fine, who represented a state Senate district about 100 miles from the congressional district in which he ran, appeared to be underperforming against educator Josh Weil (D) who spent almost $16 million in the special election campaign. President Trump carried the district in the previous November election with a 65-35 percent margin. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated the district’s partisan lean at 60.7R – 37.3D.

In the FL-6 special election, despite what was viewed as “widespread Republican panic” occurring over the Fine candidacy, the GOP nominee won the seat with a 56.7 – 42.7 percent margin. While detractors pointed to President Trump’s 65 percent, a comparison to depict the Fine performance in a negative light, turning back to the last time the 6th District was open is likely a better analysis indicator. Such a comparison tells a different story. In the 2018 open election, Republican Mike Waltz’s victory percentage was 56.3, or almost a half-point below Fine’s initial vote total.

The TN-7 district is routinely characterized in media reports as a “deep red” seat. Such was the case in previous redistricting plans, but not today. In the 2011-20 map, for example, the 7th District carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations), which certainly qualifies as a “deep red” CD.

Because the 2021 redistricting map added Democratic voters to the 7th to give Republicans a chance to win the adjacent 5th CD, a better depiction of the current TN-7 would be a “reliable” red district (55.1R – 42.2D: Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Behn comes from the Ocasio-Cortez/Mamdani wing of the Democratic Party. Her winning would be extraordinary in a Republican district such as TN-7 and will give credence to those who believe the Democrats will easily win the House majority in next year’s midterm elections.

Such a victory tonight would be even more astonishing when understanding that Behn has previously said that she “hates Nashville and the country music scene,” and been forcibly removed from the Governor’s office for protesting. She also said that “men and women can give birth,” and favors transgenderism for children.

Tennessee’s 7th District contains part of the city of Nashville and then stretches west and south to include 11 whole counties and parts of three others. The district encompasses territory from Kentucky to Alabama. In addition to containing part of Nashville, the other major population centers are the cities of Clarksville, from where former Rep. Green hails, and Franklin. (See map at Dave’s Redistricting App.)

The Tennessee situation again dictates that the Republicans must find a better way of motivating what is termed “the casual Trump voter,” that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but is typically not a regular election participant.

In special elections around the country this year, and particularly in the Virginia Governor’s campaign, the Republican turnout was low based upon previous benchmarks. Thus, the GOP turnout mechanism must be more effective in Tennessee if GOP candidate Van Epps is to prevail.

Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the Nov. 4 elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee. Van Epps should still be favored to at least win a close special election tonight, but what was heretofore an unlikely upset scenario now appears as a possibility.