Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Rep. Issa to Remain in California

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

US House

California Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego)

There had been some speculation that veteran Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) was going to travel to Texas to seek re-election in the new TX-32 district since the California redistricting plan has turned his safely Republican CD into one that is highly competitive.

At the end of last week, Rep. Issa announced that he will seek re-election and will do so in CA-48 despite the district now having a Democratic tilt.

The US Supreme Court approved the new Texas map late last week and declared that the 2025 plan will be in place for the 2026 election. The decision also affects the new California map since the pending lawsuits in both cases involved racial gerrymandering claims, meaning the voter-approved new Golden State map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 elections.

The justices timed their ruling to allow candidate filing in Texas to conclude today. Several key political determinations dominoes will fall, the most significant of which revolves around Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Dallas) decision to file for the Senate or House.

In a related choice, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who sees his 33rd District now located wholly within Dallas County thus eliminating his Tarrant County political base, says he will file in Crockett’s District 30 if she announces for the Senate. If Crockett decides to remain in the House, Veasey will either file for District 33 or enter the race for Tarrant County Judge (labeled County Executive in other places).

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson’s (D-Farmers Branch) 32nd District is transformed into a Republican seat that stretches into East Texas. Her plan is to reportedly file in District 33.

While California’s candidate filing will remain open until March 6 (March 11 if the incumbent in a particular race does not file), individuals are making decisions about where to seek election; hence, Rep. Issa’s plan to run in new District 48.

Under the 2021 California Citizens Redistricting Commission map that the legislature and voters replaced this year, Rep. Issa’s San Diego County-anchored 48th District held a partisan lean (according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization) of 58.3R – 39.8D. Under the new plan, that ratio moves to 50.6D – 48.7R, a net swing of 20.5 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Though this makes re-election much more difficult for Rep. Issa, he still has a fighting chance of defeating a Democrat in the general election. Several California districts with more lopsided Democratic partisan leans have elected Republican Representatives. Therefore, this seat likely moves from a Safe Republican rating to Toss-Up.

In comments posted in an X tweet, Rep. Issa also made some suggestions about other members in his delegation, most specifically the proposed pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). At this point, both have announced for new District 40 (DRA partisan lean: 57.0R – 42.3D), but Rep. Issa was suggesting that Rep. Kim instead run in new District 45 where she would challenge freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange County).

From a Republican Party standpoint, such a move would make sense. Ironically, the state’s two most vulnerable Democratic members, the pair who won the closest US House elections in 2024 — Reps. Adam Gray (D-Merced; winning by 187 votes) and Tran (winning by 653 votes) — actually see their Democratic partisan ratios surprisingly reduced under the new map.

In District 13, Rep. Gray views a partisan swing that moves a net 4.3 data points in the Republicans’ favor, making the partisan lean, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, of 52.4D – 46.9R. In 2022, Republican John Duarte won the 13th District that featured a partisan lean of 54.0D – 44.2R.

In southern California’s 45th CD, former Rep. Michelle Steel (R), who earlier announced that she will not return to run again in 2026, carried the seat in 2022 with a DRA partisan lean of 52.2D – 45.9R. The new 45th posts a 51.7D – 47.5R partisan lean, again suggesting that a Republican general election finalist will be competitive.

With the Supreme Court making the political situations clearer in at least the two most populous states, final 2026 electoral decisions in California and Texas can now be made with all candidates confident of which map will be in place. We will carry further analysis of the Texas situation after candidate filing closes later today.

46 Open US House Seats With Rep. Nehls’ Retirement Announcement

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

US House

Texas Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) / Photo: abc13.com

After what will be only three terms in Congress, Texas Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) surprisingly announced last weekend that he will not seek re-election next year.

Though Nehls is under a House Ethics Committee investigation under allegations that he used some of his campaign money for personal gain, there was unsurprisingly no mention of that situation in his retirement announcement. Now that Rep. Nehls has indicated he won’t seek re-election, it is possible the probe will be dropped.

With Rep. Nehls’ 22nd District now coming open, a total of 10 Texas US House districts will have no incumbent for the 2026 election, assuming the 2025 map remains in place. As you will remember during the past 10 days, a three-judge federal panel, on a 2-1 vote, declared the new map a racial gerrymander. Immediately, however, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, administrator for the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals where Texas lies, placed a temporary stay on the lower court ruling.

It is unclear what further action the high court will take, but the odds are strong that the 2025 map will be in place at the Texas candidate filing deadline, which is Dec. 8.

Under the new map, the 22nd remains a Republican district. The 2025 draw encompasses parts of the CD’s traditional three counties, Brazoria, Ft. Bend, and Harris. According to the newly calculated partisan lean from Dave’s Redistricting App, the district yields a reliable Republican calculation of 60.0R – 38.0D. The partisan lean tracks with President Trump’s 2024 performance as he carried the district over Kamala Harris with a 59-39 percent margin.

Immediately upon the Nehls’ retirement announcement becoming public, the Congressman’s twin brother, former County Constable and retired US Army Colonel Trever Nehls, announced his candidacy.

Prior to winning election to Congress in 2020, Rep. Nehls served for eight years as the Ft. Bend County Sheriff. Before earning the Sheriff’s position in 2012, Nehls was himself one of four Ft. Bend County Constables, a position he held from 2004 to 2012.

An interesting phenomenon has unfolded among the Texas open seats. Of the 10 districts where no incumbent is running, assuming the 2025 map receives favorable action from the Supreme Court, a total of six of the districts feature no state legislator and few local officials venturing forth to become a congressional candidate. The number does not include what might happen with a developing open TX-22 field.

Some Texas observers believe this unusual situation is because many legislators believe they can accomplish more remaining in the state House or Senate rather than as a freshman US Representative in a tightly divided chamber within a highly partisan atmosphere. Regardless of the reason, we will see a large number of freshmen Texas US House members coming to Washington at the beginning of 2027 with very little legislative experience.

Nationally, the Nehls retirement decision brings to 46 the number of open seats headed to the next election. On Tuesday, the open-seat race in Tennessee was decided, thus reducing the open seat contingent to 45. Of that latter group, 23 of the open seats are currently Republican held and 17 Democratic, with five new seats created from the 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Of the 46 open seats after tomorrow, 14 of the departing members are running for Governor of their respective states, 13 are retiring from elective politics, 11 are announced US Senate candidates, five new districts were created in redistricting including forcing two California incumbents to seek election in different districts, and one seat each from a member who is running for another office (Texas Attorney General), resigned (Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene; R-GA) and passed away (Rep. Sylvester Turner; D-TX).

Special Elections Update

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

Special Elections

With the TN-7 special election now complete, three more contests are pegged for the first quarter of next year. The upcoming special elections will be held in Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas.

TN-7

This week’s Tennessee result saw the 7th District electorate performing as the voting history projected, thus quelling the Democrats’ quest for the upset that certain polls suggested was possible. The 54-44 percent result from what will likely be a touch over 180,000 votes cast when all ballots are counted – a large number for a special congressional election – was equivalent to the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 55.1R – 42.2D.

Most importantly, from the Republicans’ perspective, the party apparatus proved in this instance, that they could turn out the base vote and a sizable number of the casual Trump voters, meaning those who typically only vote when the President is on the ballot. Repeatedly doing so in future elections will be a critical factor in determining whether the party will have success in the regular midterm elections next year.

GA-14

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will resign on Jan. 5. At that point, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will schedule the special election to replace the outgoing Congresswoman in the northwestern district. GA-14 the safest Peach State Republican seat. The district stretches from just outside Marietta to the Tennessee border.

It is believed that Gov. Kemp will calendar the jungle primary for a date in March. Under Georgia special election law, all candidates are on the initial ballot with the top two finishers, irrespective of party affiliation, advancing to the runoff election in the likely event that no contender attracts majority support. To comply with state law, the secondary vote must occur within 28 days of the initial election. Therefore, it is probable that this seat will be filled before the end of April.

A total of 13 Republicans and two Democrats have already announced their candidacies, but the two most talked-about potential candidates, state Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), have yet to formally declare.

It is probable that two Republicans will advance into the special runoff election. Republicans will hold this seat.

NJ-11

Gov.-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) has resigned her congressional seat, thus leading to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) scheduling a Feb. 5 partisan primary and an April 16 special general election.

Candidate filing has closed, and 13 Democrats will be on the Feb. 5 ballot vying for the party nomination. Within the large group is former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, ex-Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, and five local officials, with the remainder coming from the private sector or political activist class. Only one Republican filed, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, so he is guaranteed to win the party nomination, meaning a ballot slot for the special general election.

The partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) for this district, which redistricting has made much more Democratic in the previous two decades, is 55.6D – 42.5R. Therefore, it is clear the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track toward winning the special election and holding the seat for the party.

TX-18

The longest special election cycle to fill a congressional vacancy will culminate with a Jan. 31 runoff contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D). Since this is a double Democratic runoff, there is no doubt that the party will hold the seat for the duration of the current Congress.

Regardless of whether Menefee or Edwards wins the Jan. 31 vote, they will immediately find themselves embroiled in a new campaign against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston). Since it is likely that the new Texas congressional map will be in effect for the 2026 midterm elections, the Houston area sees a major reconfiguration of its congressional districts.

The new plan collapsed most of Rep. Green’s 9th CD into a new 18th District, with much of the current 18th going into Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) new 29th CD. The regular cycle Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, so the eventual runoff winner and loser will find themselves immediately competing in a new campaign.

The regular term candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8. At this point, neither Menefee nor Edwards have filed for the new term, but both are expected to do so. This means that the loser of the Jan. 31 runoff could conceivably be an active candidate for the March 3 regular primary election, which could force Rep. Green into a runoff with either the new incumbent or the just-defeated runoff participant.

While the special election will end on Jan. 31, the campaign for a full term will already be entering political prime time.

TN-7: Republican Van Epps Wins

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

Special Election

Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night in the TN-7 special election.

In what was turning into the most important special congressional election of the latter half of 2025, former state cabinet official and Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night over state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) securing the district for the GOP and avoiding a Democratic partisan upset of national proportions.

The last published poll, from Emerson College (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques), found only a two-point spread in Van Epps’ favor, 48-46 percent. Outside allies from both parties individually spent seven figures to promote their ideological choice understanding that the victory stakes were becoming unusually high for what should be a reliable Republican district.

Though the 7th CD was viewed as a safely Republican seat, Democrats, riding high with their big victories from the Nov. 4 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, believed they had a legitimate chance to record an upset win.

Though Van Epps did not reach the 60 percent level that President Trump and resigned Rep. Mark Green (R) both attained in the 2024 general election, last night’s result was very close to the district’s partisan lean.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.2D partisan division for TN-7, which is close to where the candidates landed last night. The district performed as expected. Van Epps carried 13 of the district’s 14 counties, losing only Davidson, which is the Democrats’ base and contains Rep. Behn’s state House district in the city of Nashville.

Before 2021 redistricting, the 7th was more Republican. Democrats were added to the 7th in the most recent redraw to make the adjacent 5th District winnable for a GOP candidate, thereby lessening the 7th’s Republican strength.

Turnout for this special election was extremely high: 179,770 votes counted with 99 percent of the precincts reporting according to the latest available report. Typically, special congressional elections draw around 100,000 voters. Here, the high spending from both sides contributed to the large turnout and also led to the Republicans successfully turning out its Trump vote base, something that was routinely not happening in other 2025 elections.

In those contests, mostly at the state legislative level we saw a few major Democratic upsets occur. Seeing such results was evidence that the Trump voter base failed to participate in sufficient numbers to carry Republican candidates in elections without the President on the ballot. The TN-7 win may give the Republican strategists the formula they need for improved GOP performances in next year’s midterm elections.

The House partisan division now moves to 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, with two Democratic vacancies. The 18th District of Texas remains without an incumbent (death of Rep. Sylvester Turner) until the Jan. 31 runoff election. New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned her 11th District US House seat after being elected her state’s Governor.

On Jan. 5, the Republican conference recedes to 219 when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is scheduled to resign. The House will likely return to a full 435-member compliment in April when the projected special election calendars will be set for the purpose of filling the latter vacancies.

TN-7: Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

Special Election

TN-7 candidates in today’s special election: Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) / Republican Matt Van Epps.

Signs are prevalent that today’s special election in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will be closer than the region’s voting history suggests.

An Emerson College pre-election survey (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Republican Matt Van Epps, a former cabinet official in Gov. Bill Lee’s (R) administration, leading state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) by only a 48-46 percent margin. This, in a district that both President Trump and resigned Congressman Mark Green (R) carried with 60 percent of the vote in 2024.

Both parties see outside allies pouring in money to help their favored candidates, so the political advertising has been intense. Turnout, as always, will be the key. The early voting numbers show Democratic participation up in the Davidson County (Nashville) precincts, while Republican early vote turnout looks to be below their previous winning level benchmarks in most of the outlying counties.

Analysis parallels have been made between this campaign and the special election held last April in Florida’s 6th Congressional District. There, Republican Randy Fine, who represented a state Senate district about 100 miles from the congressional district in which he ran, appeared to be underperforming against educator Josh Weil (D) who spent almost $16 million in the special election campaign. President Trump carried the district in the previous November election with a 65-35 percent margin. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated the district’s partisan lean at 60.7R – 37.3D.

In the FL-6 special election, despite what was viewed as “widespread Republican panic” occurring over the Fine candidacy, the GOP nominee won the seat with a 56.7 – 42.7 percent margin. While detractors pointed to President Trump’s 65 percent, a comparison to depict the Fine performance in a negative light, turning back to the last time the 6th District was open is likely a better analysis indicator. Such a comparison tells a different story. In the 2018 open election, Republican Mike Waltz’s victory percentage was 56.3, or almost a half-point below Fine’s initial vote total.

The TN-7 district is routinely characterized in media reports as a “deep red” seat. Such was the case in previous redistricting plans, but not today. In the 2011-20 map, for example, the 7th District carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations), which certainly qualifies as a “deep red” CD.

Because the 2021 redistricting map added Democratic voters to the 7th to give Republicans a chance to win the adjacent 5th CD, a better depiction of the current TN-7 would be a “reliable” red district (55.1R – 42.2D: Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Behn comes from the Ocasio-Cortez/Mamdani wing of the Democratic Party. Her winning would be extraordinary in a Republican district such as TN-7 and will give credence to those who believe the Democrats will easily win the House majority in next year’s midterm elections.

Such a victory tonight would be even more astonishing when understanding that Behn has previously said that she “hates Nashville and the country music scene,” and been forcibly removed from the Governor’s office for protesting. She also said that “men and women can give birth,” and favors transgenderism for children.

Tennessee’s 7th District contains part of the city of Nashville and then stretches west and south to include 11 whole counties and parts of three others. The district encompasses territory from Kentucky to Alabama. In addition to containing part of Nashville, the other major population centers are the cities of Clarksville, from where former Rep. Green hails, and Franklin. (See map at Dave’s Redistricting App.)

The Tennessee situation again dictates that the Republicans must find a better way of motivating what is termed “the casual Trump voter,” that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but is typically not a regular election participant.

In special elections around the country this year, and particularly in the Virginia Governor’s campaign, the Republican turnout was low based upon previous benchmarks. Thus, the GOP turnout mechanism must be more effective in Tennessee if GOP candidate Van Epps is to prevail.

Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the Nov. 4 elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee. Van Epps should still be favored to at least win a close special election tonight, but what was heretofore an unlikely upset scenario now appears as a possibility.

Massachusetts Senate:
Another Noteworthy Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

Senate

Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey (D)

Two new polls were released in the budding Massachusetts Senate Democratic primary, and both suggest that veteran Sen. Ed Markey will find himself in another tough renomination campaign.

The first poll, from the University of New Hampshire, a frequent pollster of New England political races, tested Sen. Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) who announced his primary challenge in mid-October. The result shows Rep. Moulton in a competitive position in a hypothetical one-on-one challenge race against Sen. Markey.

The second poll, from Suffolk University and the Boston Globe newspaper, tested Sen. Markey, Rep. Moulton, and Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) who is considering entering the race. This poll result puts Markey and Pressley in a dead heat, with Moulton well behind. The Suffolk poll, however, does not meet the polling reliability standard as it relates to their Democratic primary cell segment.

The University of New Hampshire survey (Nov. 13-17; 618 registered Massachusetts voters; 343 likely Democratic primary voters; online) posts Sen. Markey to a 34-25 percent lead over Rep. Moulton. While the Senator maintains a lead beyond the polling margin of error, posting a support figure of only 34 percent within his own party certainly reveals a weak standing for a long-time incumbent. Markey was first elected to the Senate in a 2013 special election, but his first election to Congress, for the US House, came in 1976.

The Suffolk University poll (Nov. 19-23; 500 registered Massachusetts voters; live interview), sees Rep. Pressley leading Sen. Markey 35-34 percent with Rep. Moulton only scoring 16 percent. This poll, however, reveals only 144 responses from Democratic primary voters, with another 88 from Independent/Non-Affiliated voters who say they will participate in the Democratic primary. Thus, 232 responses are far below the minimum 300 sample cell standard for a statewide poll in a domain with nine congressional districts. Therefore, these results should be considered unreliable.

Regardless of what early polling may reveal, Sen. Markey is a proven winner over decades of campaigns, and he scored an impressive win in the 2020 Democratic primary. In that election, Sen. Markey defeated then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, thus defeating a member of the Kennedy family in their home state within the national party that his relatives once led.

Researching the polling archives from the 2020 race, we find that Sen. Markey trailed in the early going then, too.

From February through May of 2020, Sen. Markey fell behind Rep. Kennedy in three publicly released surveys from three different pollsters. The strongest Kennedy lead came from a Boston based Emerson College poll (May 5-6; 620 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters) that found a 58-42 percent margin in the challenger’s favor. The others showed the race much closer, but also with Kennedy leading.

In the September 2020 primary, however, Sen. Markey recorded a 55-45 percent victory after running a strong coalition-based campaign that overcame the “Kennedy mystique” in roaring fashion.

The Massachusetts primary is one of the latest in the country. In 2026, the Bay State Democratic voters won’t choose their nominees until Sept. 1. Therefore, this race has a long maturation period during which time we shall see major change.

The key facet may be whether Rep. Pressley decides to enter the Senate race. A member of the House Democratic “Squad” that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-East Elmhurst) leads, Rep. Pressley identifies as a Democratic Socialist.

She publicly confirms considering the Senate race and still has plenty of time to make a decision with a candidate filing deadline of May 5. The Congresswoman would risk a safe House seat, so the decision to run statewide against a veteran incumbent is major.

Rep. Moulton, who is viewed as being closer to the ideological center, would have a difficult time overtaking Markey in a head-to-head pairing since the Senator’s liberal record is closer to the Democratic base.

In a three-way race with Rep. Pressley added, Moulton’s chances may actually improve since the far left and the liberal left bases would be split between Markey and Pressley. This would give Moulton a better victory path because he could unite a coalition of more centrist Democrats. Though lesser in number, a three-way split would require less votes to win the plurality Democratic primary.

Expect to see a diverse set of released polling results at least through next Spring. Once Pressley makes a decision and we get closer to the election, clearer patterns will emerge. In the end, Sen. Markey will be favored and should record another convincing victory irrespective of who he may ultimately face in the Democratic primary.

Two New Special Elections

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025

This is our last update for the week. We’ll take a pause for Thanksgiving and pick up again Monday, Dec. 1. Wishing all a very Happy Thanksgiving!

House

Governors in two states are making moves to calendar elections to fill new congressional vacancies in their states. With Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigning her congressional seat to prepare for her swearing in as the Garden State Governor, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declaring that she will leave Congress on Jan. 5, two more districts will soon host special elections.

Since this Congress began, we have seen four seats filled in special elections; two more are scheduled, the first on Dec. 2 (TN-7) and the other Jan. 31 (TX-18), and now the Georgia-New Jersey pair open.

Three seats became vacant because the incumbent passed away — Reps. Raul Grijalva (AZ), Sylvester Turner (TX), Gerry Connally (VA); one accepted an appointment from President Trump, Rep. Mike Waltz (FL); three resigned for other opportunities, Reps. Matt Gaetz (FL), Greene (GA), Mark Green (TN); and one, Sherrill, won election to a different office.

NJ-11

Rep. Mikie Sherrill being elected New Jersey Governor on Nov. 4 creates a new vacancy in the Garden State congressional delegation. The 11th District lies in the northern part of the state and is reliably Democratic.

Under previous redistricting plans in the early part of the century, the 11th, which now includes parts of three counties, Essex, Morris, and Passaic, and the population centers of Morristown, Parsippany-Troy Hills, and Gov-Elect Sherrill’s hometown of Montclair, was a Republican district.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the current NJ-11 shows a 55.6D – 42.5R ratio. Kamala Harris carried the district 53.3 – 44.6 percent. Therefore, the stats show that Gov-Elect Sherrill’s successor will very likely be determined in the special Democratic primary.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) just announced that the District 11 special partisan primaries will be held on Feb. 5, with the special general scheduled for April 16. Candidates must file right after Thanksgiving, on Dec. 1.

A total of 14 Democrats have announced their candidacies, including former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski. In 2022, Malinowski, who saw his district become a touch more Republican in 2021 redistricting largely to make the 11th and now-Sen. Andy Kim’s (D) former 3rd District more Democratic. Then-Rep. Malinowski would lose to current Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) as a result.

Beyond Malinowski, the Democratic field includes former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, five local officials from various townships, and former Obama White House aide Cammie Croft. Only one Republican is in the race, Randolph Town Commissioner and Mayor Joe Hathaway.

GA-14

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Rome) surprise resignation means an ensuing special election will be held in northwest Georgia. Reportedly, sources close to Gov. Brian Kemp (R) say he is leaning toward scheduling a March primary.

Under Georgia election law, when special elections are held all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. If a contender receives majority support in the first election, the individual is elected. If no one reaches such a level, the top two finishers, again regardless of political party affiliation, advance to a runoff election within 28 days of the initial vote.

With an overwhelming Republican partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D), meaning the 14th District is the safest Georgia Republican congressional district, the possibility of two Republicans advancing to the runoff is relatively high.

A total of six state Senate seats and 17 districts in the state House contain part of the 14th CD. Encompassing all or part of 10 counties, a multitude of Republican state and local officials are likely to enter the congressional campaign.

State Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), who for a time was in this year’s US Senate campaign, are viewed as potentially strong candidates.

The field will form once Rep. Greene resigns after the first of the year and Gov. Kemp officially calls the special election.