Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Sen. Mitch McConnell’s Retirement Announcement & Its Implications

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 24, 2025

Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Veteran Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the longest-serving Republican leader in party history, officially announced late last week that he will not seek re-election in 2026.

McConnell’s Background — Sen. McConnell had held a GOP leadership position from the beginning of 2003 until the Senate convened this year. The McConnell retirement decision had been expected, especially with potential successors already oiling their campaign machines anticipating an open US Senate contest.

Sen. McConnell was first elected as a Kentucky Senator in 1984 and, upon completion of his current seventh term, will depart tied with the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) as the seventh longest-serving Senator in US history.

After originally unseating then-Sen. Dee Huddleston (D) by just 5,269 votes, Sen. McConnell went on to win six more Senate elections averaging 56.6 percent of the vote against serious competition in most of those campaigns. The Senator became a focal point for Democratic money, which propelled opposition candidates into strong positions.

In 1996, Sen. McConnell defeated Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s father, Steve Beshear, who would later serve two terms as Governor in his own right. Prior to winning the Senate seat, McConnell was twice elected as the Judge-Executive of Jefferson County.

Sen. McConnell, while not considered a compelling national spokesman for the Republican Party, was clearly one of the most effective Senate Leaders in history. He will be particularly noted for his adroit strategies in confirming a multitude of judges during the George W. Bush and Trump presidencies. Though currently at odds with the President of his own party, Sen. McConnell has cast an indelible mark in Senate history throughout his long career in the chamber.

What are the implications of Sen. McConnell’s retirement? — The internal Republican battle to replace the outgoing Senator has been bubbling beneath the political surface and is already transitioning to public warfare. Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) immediately announced for the Senate upon McConnell’s public exiting statement. Two weeks ago, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) indicated that he would run for the Senate should McConnell retire.

Shortly after the Barr declaration, the Club for Growth launched attack ads against the Congressman, obviously in opposition to him for the Senate nomination. Immediately after the McConnell announcement, Rep. Barr hit Cameron as an “embarrassment to President Trump” for losing the 2023 gubernatorial race even when having a Trump endorsement. The Barr forces supported their claim by reiterating that Trump carried Kentucky by 30 percentage points in the November election.

The Democratic leadership will now make a major attempt to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear (D) into the open Senate race. Despite Kentucky being a solid red state in federal races, it is still very competitive, as Beshear has proved, in state contests. The Governor was re-elected in 2023 with 52.5 percent of the vote (over Cameron’s 47.5 percent), after unseating Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in a close 2019 result — 5,136 votes from more than 1.32 million ballots cast.

With the open Kentucky Senate race now officially underway, Blue Grass State Democrats may face the same problem as Georgia Republicans. They both see their own Governor in potentially strong position to compete in, and potentially win, a current Senate race — the Georgia Republican leadership wants Gov. Brian Kemp to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — but the lure of a potential 2028 presidential candidacy makes both Beshear and Kemp so far hesitant to commit to running in 2026.

The McConnell retirement means there will be at least three open Senate seats in the 2026 election. Within the last three weeks, Democratic Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) announced that they would not seek re-election.

While the 2026 map favors the Democrats in that they must only defend 13 seats as opposed to the Republicans’ 22, they now will be forced to spend heavily to support a pair of open seat nominees in Michigan and Minnesota, states that promise to be hot targets.

Thus, the Democratic leadership will be under greater pressure to put the Kentucky Senate seat in play and realistically recruiting Gov. Beshear is their only chance of seriously challenging the Blue Grass Republicans in November of 2026.

Rep. Cuellar’s Potential Challenger

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 21, 2025

House

Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Republicans are working to recruit a new challenger in Texas to run against veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), and they may have found their man.

Reports are surfacing that the GOP leadership is attempting to recruit Webb County Judge (referred to as County Executive in most places) Tano Tijerina who is a new Republican. Saying that, “hard work, faith, family, and freedom” were “no longer pillars in the Democrat party,” Tijerina converted to the Republican Party in December. Now, the party leaders hope he will challenge Rep. Cuellar in 2026.

Henry Cuellar was first elected to Congress in 2004 and has since become the most bipartisan member of the House Democratic Conference. He is also facing a federal indictment on bribery and money laundering charges with a trial scheduled to begin in the Spring with jury selection currently scheduled for March 31. It remains to be seen if the Trump Justice Department moves forward with this case.

Despite being under a well-publicized indictment, Cuellar was re-elected to an 11th term in November with a 52.8 – 47.2 percent margin over retired Navy Commander Jay Furman (R) who moved to the district from another state for the singular purpose of opposing Cuellar.

Therefore, with Furman having little in the way of local connections or history within the district the Congressman was easily able to out-raise his opponent and ended the campaign with a better than 3:1 spending advantage. Thus, Furman’s unfamiliarity with the local region made him a weak candidate though he was still able to out-poll Rep. Cuellar in three counties.

The 28th District begins in the eastern sector of San Antonio and then moves south all the way to the Mexican border. Tijerina’s Webb County, which houses the city of Laredo, is the district’s largest entity encompassing approximately 35 percent of the CD’s population. Bexar County, where San Antonio lies, is the second largest of the district’s nine counties, holding about 33 percent of the constituency.

CD-28’s population is 72 percent Hispanic, yet in the 2024 election President Donald Trump carried the South Texas region — the first time a Republican had done that since 1912, according to the Down Ballot political blog statisticians. He topped Kamala Harris in the Cuellar District by a 51-48 percent clip.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7, but the latest statistics might suggest a tightening of that rating. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 55.2D – 42.7R partisan lean, and the Down Ballot data organization ranks the district as the 53rd most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

While Rep. Cuellar still maintains a partisan advantage, his edge is far from insurmountable. Tijerina has averaged 88.2 percent of the vote in his three countywide elections, which makes him a very formidable prospective opponent.

At this early point in the 2026 election cycle, conversion opportunities for either party appear few and far between, and virtually non-existent in Texas. Should the Republicans successfully recruit Tijerina into this race, the GOP would have scored a clear point in their favor and a new seriously competitive challenge race would soon form.

Early Senate Campaign Breaks

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025

Senate

While the 2026 Senate map favors the Democrats when examining the ratio of each party’s offensive opportunities — Republicans must defend 22 seats as opposed to just 13 for the Democrats — yet in the early going we see three Democratic states already moving into the vulnerability realm.

It was assumed that both parties would begin the cycle tasked with at least one obvious defensive campaign — North Carolina for the Republicans (Sen. Thom Tillis running for re-election) and Georgia for the Democrats.

Three Peach State polls, all conducted since the first of the year, were recently released. The most current, from Quantas Insights (Feb. 11-13; 800 registered Georgia voters; opt-in online panel), again slotted Gov. Brian Kemp (R) running ahead of first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). According to the ballot test, Gov. Kemp held a 48-45 percent edge.

In the two other polls, the Tyson Group survey (Jan. 30-31; 600 likely Georgia voters; live interview & online panel) posted Gov. Kemp to a 49-42 percent advantage. WPA Intelligence also surveyed the Georgia electorate. This poll, executed in mid-January (Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia general election voters; live interview), also found Gov. Kemp topping Sen. Ossoff and within the same point spread realm. In the WPA study, the margin is six percentage points, 46-40 percent.

In other ballot tests within the same polling questionnaires, Sen. Ossoff was paired with potential Republican candidates other than Gov. Kemp. The Senator led in all instances with a range between eight and 16 percentage points. At this point, Gov. Kemp has not yet confirmed that he will run for the Senate.

Within the past three weeks, two surprising announcements were made that significantly changed the 2026 Senate election cycle. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) unexpectedly announced on Jan. 29 that he would not seek re-election. Two weeks later, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) also declared her intention to retire at the end of the current Congress.

Considering the 2024 Michigan Senate race was decided by just 19,008 votes, and with a Senate and Governor’s race both in open status simultaneously for the first time in the Wolverine State’s modern political era, the 2026 statewide races are expected to be hot targets.

Michigan’s EPIC-MRA polling firm quickly went into the field after the Peters announcement (Feb. 3-8; 600 likely Michigan general election voters) and found former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican 2024 Senate candidate who came within three-tenths of one percentage points of victory, leading former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by a 47-41 percent count. Buttigieg is running substantially ahead of prospective Democratic candidates in early primary polling.

The Minnesota situation is quite different. While we haven’t yet seen any definitive polling, we are witnessing the potential of top Democratic elected officials squaring off against each other to run for the open Senate seat.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the first to declare her candidacy. Gov. Tim Walz, who is eligible to run for a third term, is also expressing interest in the Senate seat. On Tuesday, it was reported in the Down Ballot political blog that Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), giving no indication that she would yield to either Gov. Walz or Lt. Gov. Flanagan, is confirming her interest in possibly becoming a Senate candidate.

Therefore, should this high level multi-candidate Democratic primary develop, such a campaign could become divisive. In an August primary with a short general election cycle, it is probable that the eventual nominee would be more vulnerable than usual in a Minnesota general election campaign.

While other offensive opportunities will certainly open for Senate Democrats in other states, the beginning of this new election cycle has already provided the GOP with some apparent early breaks.

House Member Movement – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025

House

Today, we conclude our report about state political developments affecting the 2026 campaign cycle and how House member electoral moves could be influenced.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith’s (D) surprise retirement announcement could trigger a major Democratic primary battle between two of the state’s top office holders. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has already indicated that she plans to enter the open Senate campaign, but apparently Gov. Tim Walz is also likewise contemplating his chances for such a race.

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D)

Because Minnesota has no term limits anchored to its statewide offices, Gov. Walz could run for a third term. This unfolding situation makes the Minnesota open Senate race one of the nation’s top early campaigns.

On the Republican side, both House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano) and Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth) say they will not run for the Senate.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is in-cycle but has yet to say whether she will seek a fourth term next year. The Senator indicates a decision will be forthcoming in the next few months. Looking at her largely bipartisan votes on the Trump cabinet appointments suggests that she may be leaning toward running.

If Sen. Shaheen decides to retire, look for Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) to run for the Senate. Freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) is another possibility, but Pappas would be the more likely to seek and win the Democratic nomination.

New Jersey — The Garden State hosts its gubernatorial election this year, and two House members are running for the post. Since this is an odd-year election, neither Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) nor Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) must risk their seat to run statewide.

Should one of them be elected Governor, a special congressional election will be called to fill the balance of the vacated term. Republicans would be more competitive in the Gottheimer seat, but special elections in either district would be contested.

New York — Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is running for re-election, and her statewide campaign effort looks to have a major effect upon the Empire State US House delegation. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has made no secret that he is analyzing his chances of defeating Gov. Hochul in the June 2026 Democratic primary. With the Governor possessing low approval ratings, Rep. Torres’ impending challenge is regarded as serious.

On the Republican side, two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is also assessing a Governor’s bid. Again, because Hochul appears weak, the eventual Republican nominee is projected to be in a more competitive position than for a typical election. Should Lawler leave his House district (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating D+7) the Democrats would have the inside track toward converting the seat.

Later this year, the state’s northeastern 21st District will go to special election once Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations. Republicans would be favored to hold the seat, but Democrats captured this district in a 2009 special election after then-Rep. John McHugh (R) resigned to become Secretary of the Army. The local Democratic county chairs have already selected dairy farmer Blake Gendebien as their special election nominee. Republicans have yet to designate their candidate.

South Carolina — Gov. Henry McMaster (R), now the longest serving state chief executive in South Carolina history, is ineligible to seek a third full term next year. McMaster’s exit will leave a crowded and competitive open Republican gubernatorial primary. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), look to be sure candidates.

In the House delegation, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirms she is also considering running for Governor, while Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) indicates that he is contemplating challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the Republican Senate primary.

South Dakota — Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned her position to become US Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Upon her leaving office, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascended to the governorship. While Rhoden remains noncommittal about running for a full term, reports indicate that at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is making plans to run for Governor irrespective of whether the new incumbent becomes a candidate.

Should Rep. Johnson enter the statewide race, the June Republican primary for the open House seat would feature a crowded field. The eventual GOP nominee would then become a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

Tennessee — For a time, it appeared that we would see multiple Republican US House members entering the Governor’s race to succeed term-limited incumbent Bill Lee (R). When Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) began making moves to join the Governor’s field the situation changed. Now, it appears that only Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) may be an impediment to Sen. Blackburn’s apparent quest for the gubernatorial nomination.

Initially, it appeared that Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) and possibly Diana Harshbarger (R-Kingsport) were all considering becoming statewide candidates. If Rep Rose ultimately decides to run for Governor, a crowded plurality Republican primary would decide his successor in the 6th Congressional District. As candidate filing approaches in April of 2026, the race will become better defined.

Texas — At this point, most of the Texas political attention surrounds whether Attorney General Ken Paxton will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary. With Gov. Greg Abbott (R) saying he will run for a fourth term, it appears the rest of the Republican field will be frozen.

Should Paxton run for the Senate, we will see a crowded primary form for state Attorney General. Possibly the only Republican House member who might have interest in running for this statewide post is veteran Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin). It remains to be seen if any of the Democratic House members would show interest in an Attorney General’s campaign.

Vermont — Though Vermont has become one of the most reliable of Democratic states, Republican Gov. Phil Scott has won five consecutive two-year terms. It won’t be known until much closer to the next election whether the Governor will run for a sixth term, but if he retires Democrats are virtually assured of capturing the office.

It would be quite likely that at-large Rep. Becca Balint (D-Brattleboro) would seek the party nomination for Governor. If so, we would again see a crowded and competitive Democratic primary for the state’s singular House seat.

Wisconsin — Gov. Tony Evers (D) is eligible to run for a third term and has hinted that he will do so. Several Republican House members have at one time or another been considered as having statewide aspirations. They are: Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien), and Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua). Once Gov. Evers makes public his political intentions, more will become known about potential opponents.

Wisconsin has a late primary beginning with a candidate filing deadline in June of 2026. Therefore, expect the Wisconsin House delegation to be in flux for quite some time.

Wyoming — Gov. Mark Gordon (R) is term limited in 2026, but the courts have seemingly left the door open for a legal challenge to the Wyoming election law. It is unclear at this point if Gov. Gordon will contest the law and attempt to run for a third term.

At-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) is reportedly a potential Republican candidate regardless of Gov. Gordon’s electoral status. If she risks the House seat, we will see a highly competitive GOP primary develop with the winner becoming the prohibitive favorite for the general election.

House Member Movement, Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

House

Open races for Governor and in some cases Senator have already led to anticipated movement in the US House delegations. Today, we look at action from half the country. Tomorrow, Part II.

Alaska — Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and most of the early political speculation involves defeated Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and what might be her next political move. Peltola says she’s been getting encouragement to run for Governor, or even against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), or to seek a re-match with freshman Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak). The former Congresswoman jokingly said, “I might run for all three!”

In reality, her best chance for victory would be in the open Governor’s race. Expect her to enter that battle, which leaves Rep. Begich in a much stronger position for re-election.

Karrin Taylor Robson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona — Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is already making moves to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). It appears, however, that he will first face 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary. Robson already has an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Still, Rep. Biggs begins with an early polling lead. Arizona’s 5th District is safely Republican. Therefore, we can expect to see a crowded and competitive Republican primary in late July of 2026.

Largely due to health reasons, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced even before the end of last year that he would not seek re-election in 2026. His retirement will yield a contested Democratic primary in a seat that stretches from just southeast of Tucson along the Mexican border all the way to California.

Colorado — Gov. Jared Polis (D) is term-limited in 2026, and his lame duck status is igniting a round of political musical chairs.

Two Democratic members of the House delegation are likely to run for Governor. Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), who is staked to small early Democratic primary polling leads, and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) are both testing the waters for a statewide run. Should both enter the Governor’s race, we will see hotly contested Democratic primaries in Districts 2 and 6. Each seat is safely Democratic, so the major political action will be in the June primary.

Connecticut — Gov. Ned Lamont (D) could run for a third term but has said he won’t make a decision about his electoral future until after the legislative session ends halfway through this year. The most likely House member to make a statewide move, should Gov. Lamont decide to retire, is Rep. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob). If the Governor runs again, which is likely, expect no movement in the Connecticut congressional delegation.

Florida — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but his wife, Casey DeSantis, is sending signals that she may run. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has opened with a big polling lead in surveys that have not yet included Casey DeSantis. Should Rep. Donalds run for Governor, he will leave a crowded Republican primary in his wake. The 19th District, however, is strongly Republican, so don’t expect the Democrats to contest the seat in the general election.

Two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) was threatening, before Gov. DeSantis chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace now Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate, to primary the appointed Senator. His rhetoric has been less intense since Moody took the seat, so it remains to be seen if Rep. Mills launches a primary challenge. If the 7th District opens, expect a highly competitive Republican primary followed by a moderately contested general election.

Georgia — It appears we will see a great deal of action in the Peach State next year. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) cannot succeed himself, but he may challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).

Irrespective of Gov. Kemp’s plans, his position will be open. Already four House members, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) have discussed running statewide either for Governor or Senator. Most would defer to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run for the Senate. Depending upon eventual circumstances, we could see wholesale change within the Georgia Republican House delegation.

For the Democrats, largely due to health problems, Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is expected to either retire or face a difficult Democratic primary challenge. State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), who has won 11 elections to his current state legislative seat, has already declared his intent to run for Congress in 2026. This guarantees that a highly competitive Democratic primary will commence irrespective of whether Rep. Scott seeks re-election.

Kansas — Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the focus will be upon those vying to succeed her. National Democratic leaders would like to see four-term Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) run for Governor, but it is unclear whether Rep. Davids, who has secured what had been, heretofore, a marginal political seat, will risk her current position to run statewide as an underdog in reliably red Kansas. No Republican House member is expected to run statewide.

Kentucky — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has already expressed interest in running for the Senate if former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) announces his retirement as expected. Barr is likely to face ex-Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary.

Democrats are attempting to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear for the Senate race, so Kentucky will become a very interesting political state in 2026. Should Rep. Barr run statewide, his 6th District would become moderately competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to hold the seat.

Maine — Gov. Janet Mills (D) is another of the term-limited Governors, and as such all eyes are on four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) to see if he will make the move into the open statewide race. At this point, Golden is non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He survived a close 2024 re-election battle with former NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R).

Therefore, the Congressman would very likely face a competitive re-match should he decide to seek re-election if he eschews a bid for Governor.

Michigan — For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is another of the term-limited state chief executives, and Sen. Gary Peters (D) has already announced his retirement. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leads all Republicans in polling for the open Governor’s office and is expected to again run statewide.

Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) have been tested in Senate polling, but neither fare well. Despite two major statewide openings, it is probable that Rep. James, at least at this time, is the only House member willing to risk his seat for a statewide bid.

Moving to Replace McConnell

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 17, 2024

Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Veteran Senator and former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has not formally announced his retirement vis-à-vis the next election, but that’s not stopping potential successors from beginning to declare their intent.

Two individuals already saying they are preparing Senate bids are former state Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

Polling to gauge potential Senate candidate political strength is also underway. According to a co/efficient data firm poll conducted in early December but released on Feb. 10 (Dec. 2-3; 1,298 identified Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview & text), Cameron would lead Rep. Barr and former US Ambassador to the United Nations and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft by a 32-16-10-3 percent count. In second place is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/Covington). Massie was tested in the poll but has since stated that he will not run for the Senate.

Another House member not entering an open Senate race is Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), chairman of the House Government Oversight Committee. Comer stated he will seek re-election to the House in 2026, but also indicated he would consider again running for Governor in 2027 when incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In 2015, Comer, then the state’s Commissioner of Agriculture, ran for Governor but lost the Republican primary to future Gov. Matt Bevin by only 83 votes from just over 214,000 ballots cast.

Another potential Republican candidate is wealthy businessman Nate Morris who is reportedly willing to inject a seven figure sum into his campaign. Among those Republicans not inclined to run, at least at this time, are Kentucky state Senate President Robert Stivers (R-Manchester) and state House Speaker David Osborne (R-Prospect).

For the Democrats, Gov. Beshear has previously indicated that he would not run for the Senate if the seat came open, but he will be under heavy pressure to do so. National and state Democratic leaders don’t have a better Kentucky option, and having the two-term Governor as their Senate nominee would certainly put the race in play.

The last time a Blue Grass State Democrat won a Senate election was 1992. Wendell Ford claimed victory that year in what proved to be the last of his four full terms. Prior to Sen. Ford’s retirement in 1999, Democrats held the Class III seat for 54 of the preceding 72 years. Sen. McConnell first won the Class II seat in 1984.

The Democrats’ record in Kentucky gubernatorial elections is much better. Gov. Beshear averaged just 50.8 percent of the vote in his two elections, but that is an improvement over any other Democrat running statewide since the Governor’s father, Steve Beshear, served two terms during the 2007-2015 period.

Should Rep. Barr follow through with his initial plans to run for the Senate, he would leave a Lexington-Fayette County anchored district housing the state’s second largest metropolitan area.

The 6th Congressional District was much more competitive prior to 2021 redistricting and widely considered a swing seat. Now, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight data organization, the seat is rated R+13. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.8R – 46.1D partisan lean, and the Down Ballot political blog staff members rank KY-6 as the 70th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.

Therefore, should Rep. Barr vacate the House seat to run for the Senate, the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to win an open seat contest.

Regardless of the candidate composition, and assuming Sen. McConnell does not seek re-election to an eighth term, we can expect some hotly contested Kentucky campaign efforts to unfold for the May 2026 primary election.

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 14, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D)

Yesterday, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) surprisingly announced that she will retire when the current term expires and not seek re-election in 2026.

Sen. Smith, in an open letter stated that ” … as much as I love my work, I’m fortunate enough to be able to say that my work is only part of what makes up my life. And after two decades of hard, rewarding work in public service, I’m ready to prioritize other things — starting with my family.”

Sen. Smith is the second Senate incumbent, and second Democrat, to forgo re-election in 2026. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) last week announced that he would not stand for a third term. Tina Smith, then Minnesota’s Lieutenant Governor, was appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Al Franken (D) resigned under a scandal cloud. She was elected in her own right in 2020, defeating former Congressman Jason Lewis (R) with a closer than expected 49-44 percent victory margin.

Most likely, the early attention about who might run to succeed Sen. Smith will center around Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. Minnesota has no statewide term limits, and there has already been much discussion as to whether Walz would seek a third term. To date, the Governor has not made public his 2026 political intentions. Now, expect the political conjecture to revolve around whether Gov. Walz will run for the Senate.

Speculation about other potential Democratic contenders will likely include Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) and even possibly former Sen. Franken, among others. It is probable that the Democratic political community will be frozen, however, until Gov. Walz makes a decision regarding his own political future.

The Republican side has less obvious candidates since the party holds no statewide positions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. In fact, the last Republican Senate victory here occurred in 2002 when Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale after the death of Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone less than a month before the November election.

Earlier in the week, Jim Schutz, who lost the 2022 Attorney General race by less than a percentage point, indicated that he would consider a potential gubernatorial bid. With a Senate seat now open, Schultz would have to be considered a possible federal office contender.

Speculation will undoubtedly include the state’s four Republican US Representatives: Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano), Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal), and Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth). It is probable all will remain in their current positions since a statewide run is a well under 50/50 victory proposition for any Republican candidate.

Another GOP name that may surface is that of former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who served from 2003-2011. Still only 64 years old, Pawlenty may be in position for a political comeback.

At the end of the day, the Democrats will be favored to hold the Senate seat, but their statewide victory margins are thinning.

Even with Gov. Walz on the national Democratic ticket, the party’s 2024 Minnesota victory margin dropped to 4.2 percentage points in comparison with the result from the previous four years. In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the state with a 7.1 point spread. The state was closer in 2016. Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump here with only a 1.5 percent margin. In the immediate previous election cycles the Democratic victory result was much larger. President Barack Obama won Minnesota with 7.6 (2012) and 10.3 (2008) percent point spreads.

The Smith retirement now means we can add Minnesota to the list of highly combative 2026 political battleground states.