Author Archives: Jim Ellis

New York Gov. Hochul Challenged

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 5, 2025

Governor

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) struggling in polls.

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is being challenged by her own hand-picked Lieutenant Governor.

Claiming there is “an absence of bold, decisive, transformational leadership,” New York Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed to his statewide position in 2022, announced that he will challenge the Governor in next year’s Democratic primary.

Immediately upon hearing the Delgado announcement, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) publicly noted that the Lieutenant Governor’s action underscores her own talking point. That is, that with Gov. Hochul’s hand-picked running mate turning on her, it is yet another indication that she is a failed state chief executive. Rep. Stefanik is expected to seek the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

The Delgado announcement may affect New York’s Democratic congressional delegation because Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is also considering entering the party’s gubernatorial primary.

In fact, the early Delgado announcement may be directed more at Torres than Hochul. Polling consistently shows both the challenger and potential challenger each taking between 10 to 13 percent of the Democratic vote against the Governor, thus splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Therefore, both entering the race would almost assuredly guarantee a Hochul plurality primary win.

Conversely, should Rep. Torres seek re-election, Lt. Gov. Delgado’s total support figure against the Governor could conceivably double as a result. Therefore, one credible challenger with a significant support base a full year before the state’s June 23 primary opposite an incumbent who generally posts mediocre job approval ratings has the makings of a serious race.

Additionally, we can now expect both the Governor and Delgado to soon make a strong pitch to obtain the Working Families Party ballot line. Doing so would be particularly important for Delgado, since being the Working Families Party nominee – candidates can appear on more than one ballot line in New York – would guarantee him a spot in the general election.

Having the WFP line would also be important to Gov. Hochul, since her appearing as that party’s standard bearer would shut out another Democrat or left-of-center candidate from advancing into the general election. With the power of the Governorship in her political toolbox, it would appear that Hochul is in a stronger position to obtain the minor party endorsement than Delgado.

Should Rep. Torres decide to enter the race, his likely strategy would be to concentrate on his New York City base, since both Gov. Hochul and Lt. Gov. Delgado hail from upstate New York, as well as building within the state’s substantial Jewish community. Rep. Torres has been a staunch and vocal supporter of Israel and thus has the opportunity of developing this coalition into a major support asset. Even with these advantages, Rep. Torres would still likely lag behind in a three-way race.

Rep. Stefanik, or the eventual Republican gubernatorial nominee, would see a best-case scenario from the GOP perspective with a close Hochul win from an internally divisive Democratic primary campaign.

Even a best-case Republican scenario, however, is unlikely to yield a statewide victory unless new trends are developed. While President Donald Trump saw a greater improvement in New York than any other state when comparing his 2024 performance with what he recorded in 2020 (up a net 10.6 percentage points), he still lost to Kamala Harris by a substantial 55-43 percent margin. EPA Administrator, former New York Congressman, and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin finished stronger than any Republican candidate since George Pataki was last re-elected in 2002, but Zeldin still lost to Gov. Hochul, 53-47 percent.

Despite poor favorability ratings and a serious intra-party challenge, Gov. Hochul must still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win re-election next year. The campaign, however, does promise to become intriguing and one that will capture considerable national political attention.

CO-8: Another Battleground Campaign for Control of the US House

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 4, 2025

House

One certainty for the 2026 election cycle is that Colorado’s 8th Congressional District will again feature a competitive and hugely expensive campaign.

The Centennial State gained a new US House seat from the 2020 national reapportionment formula due to excessive population growth. The Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission members purposely drew the state’s new 8th CD as a highly competitive district that could go back and forth between the parties to reflect the electorate’s short-term political swings. So far, the district has performed as designed.

In the 2022 election, Democrat Yadira Caraveo, then a state Representative, won the 8th District’s initial election with a tight 48.4 – 47.7 percent victory margin over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County). Two years later, reflecting a more Republican trend in the marginal district, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Caraveo by a similarly small victory spread, 48.9 – 48.2 percent.

The 2026 campaign has already drawn five Democratic candidates, including former Rep. Caraveo. Her campaign just released the results of the latest internal Public Policy Polling survey (May 19-20; 467 likely C0-8 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that posts the former Congresswoman to a substantial early lead in the party primary.

According to the PPP ballot test, Caraveo would attract 36 percent support compared to state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and State Treasurer Dave Young’s eight percent preference factor. State Rep. Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) and former teacher’s union president Amie Baca-Oehlert trail at five and four percent, respectively.

The Democratic primary is already attracting significant local media attention. A story has surfaced that Caraveo, a physician, had previously attempted suicide. The district also attracted early acclaim when Rutinel, the first announced candidate, raised just under $1.2 million in this year’s first quarter.

In contrast, Caraveo, who spent over $8.1 million for her 2024 campaign and ended with just over $4,300 remaining in her account as 2024 concluded, had just $330 cash-on-hand for the new campaign at the end of March. Her financial status, however, will soon change. State Treasurer Young and state Rep. Bird are recent entries into the race. Baca-Oehlert is soon expected to formally announce her candidacy.

For his part, Rep. Evans reported 2025 receipts through March 31 of just under $811,000 and showed slightly more than $755,000 in his cash-on-hand column. In 2024, Evans’ campaign spent just under $2.7 million in the challenger effort.

We can expect to see each side, when adding independent expenditures to the aggregate, spending as much as $25 million apiece. In 2024, outside spending in the CO-8 race totaled almost $17 million for the Democrats (61 percent spent on negative ads) and $12.2 million for the Republicans (90 percent negative) according to the Open Secrets organization reports.

The 8th District lies north and east of Denver and contains the larger cities of Thornton, Westminster, Greeley, and Commerce City, and wholly lies in parts of three counties, Adams (87 percent of county’s population), Larimer (five percent), and Weld (75 percent). President Joe Biden carried the 8th District in 2020 with a 50.8 – 46.3 percent margin. Two years later, President Donald Trump rebounded to defeat Kamala Harris here, 49.6 – 47.8 percent, again reflecting the district’s tight political nature.

It can be debated whether having such a marginal political district that guarantees hugely expensive congressional campaigns every two years is reflective of the good government intention that the redistricting commission members professed for their reasons of drawing such a district. Yet, so far the draw has produced the desired effect.

The Colorado redistricting system features three citizens commissions each constructed to draw a set of districts (i.e., congressional, state Senate, and state House of Representatives). Some believe this model has been the best of the states that employ commissions.

One reason for the positive reviews is the state Supreme Court has a defined role in the process. Once the commissions complete their respective maps, the finished plans automatically move to the state Supreme Court for legal review before the plans are finally adopted.

Having the court as part of the defined process has resulted in no redistricting lawsuits being filed in the state; therefore, yielding a much smoother process. Unlike many states, the Colorado process has now virtually guaranteed that the maps will stay in place for the entire decade consistent with the original redistricting intent.

New Texas Data Shows Mixed Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A new YouGov poll conducted for the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University produces mixed results for veteran GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who has largely seen poor polling data since the year began.

The YouGov survey (May 9-19; 1,200 registered Texas voters; online) projects Sen. Cornyn trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 34-27 percent on the Republican primary ballot test but finds him leading prospective Senate candidate Wesley Hunt, the two-term 38th District Congressman who represents a district wholly contained within Harris County. In the three-way YouGov survey, Hunt draws 15 percent support.

While the Senator still trails AG Paxton beyond the polling margin of error, this ballot test is definitely an improvement with regard to his standing within the Texas Republican Party. The last three publicly released GOP primary polls found Paxton at or over 50 percent when directly paired with Sen. Cornyn.

The better news for the Senator is that he fares well in general election pairings with the Democrats who are considering entering the statewide contest.

Tested against former Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Ted Cruz (R), Cornyn would lead 48-44 percent. Opposite former Congressman, ex-statewide and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, the Cornyn advantage is 49-43 percent. If Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) were to become a Senate candidate and win the party nomination, Sen. Cornyn would top him by seven percentage points, 48-41 percent.

While Paxton and Hunt also top the Democrats in every iteration, Sen. Cornyn fares best. The other point of note is to acknowledge that Texas Republicans typically under-poll on ballot tests.

For example, in 2024 President Trump averaged just under a seven-point lead in polls from Sept. 1 through the election according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives but won the state by almost 14 percentage points. Sen. Cruz was running an average of four points ahead of then-Congressman Allred in the same polls from Sept. 1 through the election but recorded a winning margin of almost nine percentage points.

The bad news for Sen. Cornyn comes when comparing the candidates’ favorability indexes. Within a sample cell of Republican primary voters, and in polling the at-large electorate, Sen. Cornyn posts the most negative numbers. President Trump scores best within the Republican sample with an 85:14 positive to negative ratio. Gov. Greg Abbott is next with a 78:20 score, just ahead of Sen. Cruz’s 77:21. AG Paxton records a 68:22 total, while Sen. Cornyn only reaches a 57:34 figure within his own party.

The general electorate indexes are similar. Here, Sen. Cornyn is one of three political figures who are not rated with positive favorability scores. The four-term incumbent is viewed positively by only 39 percent of the general election polling sample versus 47 percent who have an unfavorable impression of him.

Former Congressman O’Rourke is also in negative territory with an upside-down 43:49 percent ratio. Paxton’s index is dead-even with 44 percent responding positively and 44 percent expressing a negative view. Rep. Castro posts a 34:27 favorable ratio, while Rep. Hunt is also in positive territory but with a lower name identification. His favorability index is 28:19.

Part of the reason Sen. Cornyn fails to score better among Republicans is the impression that he is not supremely supportive of President Trump, along with his record on gun control issues. Many believe his defense of the Second Amendment, which protects the right of individuals to keep and bear arms, is not strong enough.

To improve his standing with the party faithful, Sen. Cornyn has recently contracted President Trump’s pollster, Fabrizio Lee & Associates, while former Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita has just joined the leadership team for a Super PAC supporting the Senator.

Sen. Cornyn is making these types of moves to hopefully keep President Trump neutral in the race, knowing that an endorsement for Paxton could doom his renomination effort; according to the aforementioned YouGov poll, 49 percent of the Republican primary voters are more likely to vote for a candidate that President Trump endorses.

Paxton was an early supporter of Trump, but the White House is also keenly aware of the Attorney General’s weaker standing before the general electorate due to negative publicity involving bribery accusations, an impeachment in the state House of Representatives, and having a well-known extramarital affair — though he remains married to state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-Allen/Plano).

Considering Texas’ early March 3 primary date, we can expect the Lone Star State’s Senate race to attract the most attention of any campaign within the early election cycle.

Vying to Replace Tuberville

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 2, 2025

Senate

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R)

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R) announcement last week that he will forgo re-election to enter the open Governor’s race leaves a huge developing candidate field in his wake.

While the Senator looks to have an easy electoral road to the state’s Governor’s mansion, the open Republican Senate nomination process promises to tell another story. So far, we see two individuals already announcing their candidacy with at least 10 more indicating they are considering running.

Retired Navy SEAL Jared Hudson (R) is already the first to enter the Senate contest. He has run for office one time, losing a close battle with an incumbent Sheriff in Jefferson County, the state’s largest population entity. Current White House aide Morgan Murphy (R) says he is “planning to enter the race,” according to The Down Ballot political blog.

Term-limited Attorney General Steve Marshall (R), even before Sen. Tuberville formally declared for Governor, indicated he is seriously considering entering the Senate race. Former Secretary of State John Merrill and ex-Veterans Affairs Commissioner Kent Davis are also probable candidates.

In the House delegation, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), who won a paired Republican primary in early 2024 when the court-ordered redistricting draw forced he and then-Rep. Jerry Carl (R) into the same Mobile to Montgomery district, says he, too, is considering a Senate run. Should Rep. Moore run statewide, former Rep. Carl is likely to re-enter the 1st District congressional race. If Moore stays in the House, Carl’s name is another being mentioned as a potential Senate contender.

Other Republicans said to be contemplating a Senate run are former Congressman Mo Brooks, though he says he’s unlikely to enter the race, ex-Congressman Bradley Byrne, 2024 congressional candidate Caroleen Dobson, state House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter (R-Rainsville), Auburn University basketball coach Bruce Pearl, and businesswoman and former gubernatorial aide Jessica Taylor.

Two House members are taking themselves out of Senate consideration: Reps. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover) and Dale Strong (R-Huntsville).

For the Democrats, aside from several minor candidates who have already indicated they are running for the Senate, the speculation will revolve around former Sen. Doug Jones.

Yet, even with him in the race – remember, Tuberville unseated him with a 60-40 percent victory margin in 2020 – a Democrat has little chance of winning. In 2024, President Trump carried the state with 64.6 percent of the vote, making it his seventh strongest state in the country. Additionally, three of the top 14 Trump congressional districts are in Alabama, including AL-4 (Rep. Robert Aderholt-R), where the President garnered his best CD finish nationally with 82.8 percent of the vote.

At this point, Sen. Tuberville looks to have little in the way of early opposition in either party for his quest to succeed term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R). His biggest obstacle, however, might come in court.

Throughout his time in politics, the Senator’s residence has been a sticking point. Claims have been made that he still lives in the multi-million dollar Florida house that he owns as opposed to the smaller home he declares as his residence in Auburn, AL.

Considering his position as a federal elected official, the residence issue was only a minor one. Running in an Alabama state race, however, residency becomes a much different story. Alabama requires a seven-year residency to run for a statewide office. Chances are this will not prevent Sen. Tuberville from running, considering he will have represented the state for six years in Washington, but the Alabama Democratic Party leaders are already talking about filing a court action pertaining to the Senator’s residency status.

The Alabama primary will be held on May 19 next year, since legislation was passed to change the primary date from the state’s previous early March election time slot. Should a runoff be required because no candidate receives a majority vote in the initial election, a likelihood in what promises to be a crowded Senate primary, the secondary vote will be held on June 16, 2026.

Early House Vulnerables

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 30, 2025

House

The Trump influence / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There will be a considerable number of contested US House seats in the 2026 election cycle, and the watch list begins with the members who won either election or re-election in a district where the electorate voted for the opposite party’s presidential candidate.

There are 16 such districts; 13 that President Trump carried while a Democrat won the House race, and three opposites; that is, districts where Kamala Harris proved victorious, but a Republican clinched the House campaign.

Today, we take a glimpse at the early races in the ticket-splitting seats where a clear general election campaign is already developing.

In terms of the Trump performance, the President carried 230 of the 435 US House districts in the 2024 election cycle. It is not until we reach Trump’s 197th-strongest seat do we see a Democrat win in a CD where the President prevailed.

• Though Trump scored a 53-44 percent victory in Maine’s 2nd District, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) survived a close re-election battle with then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with 50.3 percent of the vote.

In 2026, it appears that Golden will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R) in what promises to be a national congressional campaign. Rep. Golden has won four consecutive elections in the 2nd CD, but Gov. LePage has also carried the seat in all three of his gubernatorial runs.

• Turning to northern California’s 13th District, Republican incumbent John Duarte fell to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes even with President Trump recording a victory margin of almost six percentage points. In 2026, Republicans are coalescing around Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez, who earned an endorsement from former Rep. Duarte when the defeated member announced that he would not return for a re-match.

• North Carolina’s 1st District was significantly changed in the 2023 redistricting plan and therefore will again be competitive in 2026. GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount) to a 49.5 – 47.8 percent re-election victory, accepted a Trump Administration appointment and will not run for Congress next year.

The Buckhout decision sets the stage for Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R) to make a return appearance and become an early consensus candidate. Roberson ran for the seat in 2022 but lost the Republican primary.

• Texas veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) survived his re-election campaign against a weak Republican candidate even with a federal indictment hanging over his head and President Trump scoring a 53.2 – 45.9 percent victory within the district confines.

Former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), who twice lost to Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the neighboring 34th District, announced that she will switch districts next year to challenge Rep. Cuellar. With a changing district and Flores as the GOP nominee (though she faces a Republican primary with, so far, only minor opponents), this district will attract more national attention in 2026.

• The most pro-Kamala Harris seat to elect a Republican Congressman is found in Omaha, Nebraska. While Harris clinched the 2nd District with a 51.6 – 47.0 percent victory margin, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) was able to secure a fifth term with a 50.9 percent win. Bacon says he is undecided about whether to seek re-election in 2026.

Democrats are looking for another candidate to replace twice-defeated former state Sen. Tony Vargas, so we could see much change coming here in preparation for next year’s election. Regardless of who becomes the eventual party nominees, NE-2 will host a hotly contested race and is most likely the top Democratic national conversion opportunity.

• New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is contemplating a gubernatorial run, and a crowd of Democrats are lining up for what promises to be a bruising nomination battle. Six Democrats, two of whom are local elected officials, have already announced their candidacies. The Republican leadership and President Trump are encouraging Rep. Lawler to remain in the 17th District campaign.

• Moving southward from New York to Pennsylvania, Democratic leaders want to replace twice-defeated 1st District nominee Ashley Ehasz who lost to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) 56-44% last November even though Kamala Harris was carrying the seat with a slight 49.7 to 49.4 percent margin. Look for Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie to become a consensus Democratic candidate.

The other races in this category are still developing. The remaining Democratic incumbents who won Trump districts and can expect tough re-election campaigns are:

Josh Harder (CA-9)
Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8)
Susie Lee (NV-3)
Nellie Pou (NJ-9)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-2)
Tom Suozzi (NY-3)
Marcy Kaptur (OH-9)
Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3)

Georgia Republican Senate Candidates Closing in on Sen. Jon Ossoff

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 29, 2025

Senate

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

A recently released Cygnal survey research firm poll finds the Republican Senate candidate pool pulling closer to Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), and the two best available performers aren’t yet in the race.

The Cygnal poll (May 15-17; 800 likely Georgia voters; live interview & text) projects that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) runs slightly ahead of Sen. Ossoff, 44.3 to 44.1 percent. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) appears next strongest, trailing the incumbent, 45.7 – 44.3 percent. Neither, however, are announced Senate candidates.

Secretary Raffensperger, who was the focal point of the 2020 vote fraud claim controversy in the presidential race, could seek re-election. He has also publicly contemplated entering the open Governor’s race but has been relatively silent about launching a bid against Sen. Ossoff.

Rep. Collins has been listed as a potential Senate candidate since the beginning of the prognostication discussion, and he is still considered as a possible statewide contender.

Another potential Republican candidate, but one unlikely to run, is former US Senator and current Small Business Administration Director Kelly Loeffler. She also does well in the Cygnal poll, trailing Ossoff just 46.3 – 42.8 percent.

The announced candidates fall into the same close polling realm. Sen. Ossoff would lead Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), 46.0 – 42.1 percent, while state Agriculture Commissioner John King falls behind the Senator by a closer 44.7 – 42.1 percent.

This set of polls is much different from what we have previously seen in the early going. Before, Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who recently announced he would not run for Senate, polled slightly ahead of Ossoff, but the others were substantially behind. Therefore, the new Cygnal poll, from a frequent Georgia pollster, marks a significant improvement for the lesser known GOP candidates and potential contenders.

For example, the April Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll (May 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) found Sen. Ossoff leading Commissioner King, 51-38 percent. A January WPA Intelligence survey (Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia voters) posted Ossoff leading King, 47-31 percent and 45-32 percent over Rep. Carter.

The Tyson Group also polled the Georgia Senate race in January (Jan. 30-31; 600 likely Georgia voters) and reported Gov. Kemp leading Sen. Ossoff, 49-42 percent. They also tested Rep. Carter and found Ossoff rebounding to lead 47-32 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their April poll (April 24-27; 1,426 likely Georgia voters; multiple sampling techniques), saw Sen. Ossoff running ahead of Rep. Collins by a closer 47.5 – 42.8 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group also released Republican primary numbers from last month’s results. At the time, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome), who later announced that she would not enter the Senate race, led the group with 42.7 percent of the likely Republican primary voters. Raffensperger was second with 22.0 percent, followed by Rep. Collins’ 15.0 percent support. Rep. Carter drew 13.1 percent, potential candidate Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) posted 5.3 percent, and Commissioner King trailed with only 2.0 percent preference.

While certain states, adjacent North Carolina being a prime example, see routine polling inaccuracies that usually involve an under-poll for Republican candidates, the 2024 Georgia data produced sound projections.

According to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, the past six Georgia presidential polls all saw the race coming down to a one point margin. The final Atlas Intel (Nov. 3-4) survey predicted the correct margin, a two-point victory for President Trump. This most recent polling track record is a clear improvement for Georgia polling methodologies because the group of participating pollsters largely missed the 2020 Georgia presidential and 2022 Senate races.

The Republican nomination field is expected to be large, meaning the May 19 GOP Senate primary will likely advance to a late June runoff between the eventual top two finishers. Once a Republican nominee is chosen (Sen. Ossoff is expected to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination) the Peach State political fireworks will then consume the remaining five months of the ’26 election cycle.

The Georgia race promises to be one of the most hotly contested battleground Senate campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. It is clearly the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat, so the party will be all-in here, regardless of which Republican will ultimately challenge Sen. Ossoff.

NY Poll: Hochul and Stefanik in
Dead Heat in Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Governor

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) struggling in polls.

A political survey that the New York Post recently covered found Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) drawing into a virtual general election tie with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to the study’s ballot test result.

No major Republican or Democratic candidate with the exception of the incumbent has yet announced for Governor. Yet, the data consistently shows that Rep. Stefanik, who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations but withdrawn when it became evident that taking her from the House could have potentially cost the Republicans effective control of the legislative chamber, fares the best of any potential GOP contender against the politically vulnerable Governor.

Gov. Hochul also could face a contested Democratic primary. Both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) have indicated they are considering launching a primary challenge to the Governor.

The co/efficient survey research firm conducted their New York poll in early May (May 1-2; 1,163 likely New York voters; live interview & text) and the results showed Gov. Hochul holding only a 43-42 percent lead over Rep. Stefanik, meaning a virtual dead heat. In a hypothetical Republican primary, co/efficient sees Stefanik leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R), 56-9-8 percent. The Hochul job approval number stood at 44:46 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Siena College also released a poll conducted about two weeks later than the co/efficient study (May 12-15; 805 registered New York voters; live interview & text). The Hochul job approval score was in the same realm as co/efficient found, though slightly more positive. The Siena job approval index found the Governor in positive territory at 50:46 percent, though her personal approval is wholly consistent with the co/efficient job approval score of 44:46 percent positive to negative.

Though Siena did not test general election pairings, the pollsters did ask whether the respondent believes Gov. Hochul should be replaced. A total of 82 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of Independents said they prefer “someone else” to be the state’s next Governor. Even among Democrats, her standing is tepid. Only a bare majority of 51 percent said they are “prepared to re-elect her.”

Siena asked primary ballot test questions for both parties. While co/efficient found Rep. Stefanik holding a large lead in the GOP field, as referenced above, Siena sees a more competitive contest. According to this poll, Stefanik’s lead over Rep. Lawler and County Executive Blakeman was 35-22-11 percent, respectively.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Hochul maintains a substantial lead, but she remains below 50 percent even on the primary ballot test. Siena’s latest results project her holding a 46-12-10 percent advantage over Delgado and Torres.

While this margin is wide, it does suggest that her facing only one opponent could lead to an aggressive primary challenge. If both enter, Hochul would very likely win because the anti-incumbent vote would be split. Since New York recognizes plurality elections – New York City is using the Ranked Choice Voting system, but the state has not adopted the procedure – Hochul would prevail as the first-place finisher.

At this point, it appears likely that Rep. Stefanik will enter the Governor’s race since the early signs surrounding her proposed candidacy are relatively positive. Such is not the case for Rep. Lawler. He, therefore, will likely remain in the House race and enter what promises to be a hotly contested national congressional re-election campaign.

Without Lawler in the Governor’s race, it is possible that Blakeman would run and attempt to upset Stefanik in a one-on-one campaign, even though the early indicators heavily favor the Congresswoman for the party nomination.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Delgado and Rep. Torres would likely need to form an alliance, with only one challenging Gov. Hochul, for either to have a chance. If both enter the race, the prognostication would greatly favor a Hochul renomination. If one of the two challenges Gov. Hochul, such would yield a competitive Democratic primary campaign to be decided in late June of 2026.

Regardless of the nomination outcomes for both parties, it is probable that we will see a major general election New York gubernatorial campaign develop. While the state’s voting history clearly points to another Democratic victory in November of 2026, this race is likely to become much more interesting than would a typical New York statewide campaign.