Monthly Archives: November 2025

A Trio of US House Updates:
Stefanik, Calvert, Golden

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

House

Political moves are now coming fast and furious. We see an increase in retirements, members announcing for different offices, and a just-beginning round of California political musical chairs, because last Tuesday voters adopted the state’s new redistricting map.

Among the moves are the recently announced political plans from a trio of US House Representatives: Ken Calvert (R-CA), Jared Golden (D-ME), and Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Today, we take a look at each situation.

Stefanik: NY-21

Rep. Elise Stefanik / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

As has been expected for some time, six-term New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) announced on Friday that she will challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in next year’s statewide race.

The announcement comes at an interesting time, however, just three days after Republicans suffered crushing defeats in California, New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia.

Though Gov. Hochul’s job approval numbers have been up and down over the course of her serving part of resigned Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) final term and being elected once in her own right, Rep. Stefanik, and any other Empire State Republican, running statewide incurs a formidable challenge even under the best of circumstances. For example, the last GOP candidate to win a major New York statewide race was former Gov. George Pataki, who was elected to a third term in 2002.

Upon his re-election, President Trump nominated Rep. Stefanik as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, but her nomination was withdrawn because the GOP House leadership did not want to risk another seat in a special election that might have threatened the party’s small majority. At that point, it became clear that a Stefanik for Governor move would soon be forming.

Democrats likely already have their 2026 open congressional race nominee. When it appeared that Stefanik would be headed to the UN, the local county Democratic Party chairs nominated dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who has already raised $3.7 million for a congressional race and has just over $2 million in his campaign account.

The 21st District is reliably Republican, but the GOP lost the seat prior to Stefanik’s initial victory in 2014. Therefore, we can expect a competitive open general election next year.

Calvert: CA-41

One of the hardest-hit Republicans under the new California gerrymander, which is designed to neutralize expected GOP gains in Texas, is veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona). The new California congressional map eviscerated Rep. Calvert’s desert 41st District, which had performed as a Lean Republican seat. The new plan places different parts of the current CA-41 in other surrounding Los Angeles/Riverside/San Bernardino area CDs.

Wanting to remain in Congress, Rep. Calvert announced that he will move to new District 40, where he will likely face a fellow Republican incumbent in a paired situation. It appears that Calvert and three-term Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) will compete for one of only four districts that now favor Republicans.

California members continue to survey their 2026 prospects, so we can expect to see other district moves in the coming days. Further incumbent pairings could soon be announced as the Golden State political musical chairs begins in earnest.

Golden: ME-2

Last week, Maine Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) announced that he will not seek a fifth term next year. The Pine Tree State’s northern 2nd Congressional District is the most Republican seat in the country that elects a Democrat to the House, and the Congressman indicated that ending his tenure after four terms is proper since Maine’s term limit for its state legislators is four two-year terms.

Had he remained, Golden would have faced a difficult political year. His general election opponent would certainly have been former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in a district that LePage carried all three times he ran statewide. Therefore, a Golden-LePage race would have been rated a toss-up.

Before getting to the general election, Golden was staring at a Democratic primary challenge from the ideological left in the person of State Auditor and ex-Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.

Because Maine elects its statewide constitutional officers through the state legislature and not the voters, Dunlap does not have the electoral experience that he would have in commensurate positions from most other states. Still, he would have been a formidable Democratic opponent to Rep. Golden and is now likely to be considered the front runner for the party nomination.

Speculation at the beginning of the year pegged Golden as a possible gubernatorial candidate, and while he would have been credible in the general election, his primary prospects would have been rated as difficult. Golden would have been a centrist campaigning before a very liberal primary vote base. Some speculation also suggested that he might challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but as a former staffer to the five-term incumbent, such an option was never seriously pursued.

Open Seats

With a spate of political announcements last week, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi retiring, we now see 38 open US House seats in addition to the special elections being conducted in Tennessee and Texas.

Of the 38, a total of 22 are Republican-held, 13 Democratic, with three new seats being created through the Texas redistricting project. Most of the 2026 races, however, will not feature competitive open general election campaigns, but all will host hot primaries. Of the 38 current open seats, it is reasonable to expect only nine competitive general election contests. The other 29 will safely or likely remain with the incumbent party.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi to Retire

Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election to Congress. Watch the video on X here: Nancy Pelosi announces retirement. (Or click on the image above to see the video posted to her X account. Her announcement comes at 4:45 in the video.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

House

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement yesterday morning that she will retire when the current Congress ends has taken center stage, politically.

Nancy Pelosi was first elected to Congress back in 1987 when she won a special election to replace the late Rep. Sala Burton (D-San Francisco). Burton ran for and was elected to the seat in 1983 when her husband, then-Rep. Phil Burton (D) suddenly passed away.

Before coming to Congress, Pelosi had been the California Democratic Party chair. She grew up, however, in Baltimore, where her father, Thomas D’Alesandro, was the city’s Mayor. Therefore, her introduction to elective politics came at a young age.

At the end of next year, Rep. Pelosi will have served 39 years in the House, and eight of those as Speaker. She became the first, and only, woman to hold that post when the Democrats regained the House majority in 2007 after a 12-year hiatus from power.

Rep. Pelosi would then take a step back to Minority Leader in 2011 when Democrats lost control of the House. She returned to the body’s top post in 2019 and held the Speakership until the Democrats again lost the majority in 2023. At that point, she retired from the House leadership but remained as a regular member.

This year, Rep. Pelosi’s political outlook back home became more challenging. While she’s had opponents in every election none had been substantial, meaning she was able to record landslide wins every two years.

When Sakat Chakrabarti, who quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) upset win in 2018, announced his intention to challenge the former Speaker in the 2026 Democratic primary most believed he was not a substantial threat to defeat Pelosi. His personal wealth and track record with AOC’s upset campaign, however, gave him a modicum of credibility that no other Pelosi opponent had commanded.

The political situation became even more intriguing last month when three-term state Sen. Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) announced that he would also enter the race, presumably to challenge Pelosi. The move was a surprise since it was assumed that Sen. Weiner, who represents even more of San Francisco than does Pelosi because California state Senate seats are bigger than congressional districts, would wait until she retired to run for Congress.

Some believed the Weiner move was a ploy to encourage the Congresswoman to retire. Most believed he would have backed off of the challenge should she have decided to run again. Had Weiner moved forward, and with Chakrabarti also in the race with the goal of building himself a local political base, the campaign would have become significant.

A race against this pair, even though her chances of achieving victory were high, promised to be a difficult political run that would have taken a toll.

Because there is little disagreement regarding the issues among Pelosi and her two opponents, much of the campaign would have concentrated on her age (86 at the time of the next election), and that San Francisco needed a new Representative who could build seniority for the long term.

Whether he was forcing the retirement issue or would have truly challenged her, the end result spun in Sen. Weiner’s favor, and he is now the heir apparent for the seat.

All things considered, the time appeared right for Pelosi to exit the political stage and begin her retirement after a very long career in the public eye.

With Rep. Pelosi leaving the 11th District, it means that there will be 38 open US House seats for the 2026 election to date, after the two special elections in Tennessee and Texas are filled. Like almost all other opens from both parties, CA-11, which changes little under the new California map, will be another safe seat for the incumbent party.

Considering that California employs the jungle primary system where the top two finishers advance to the general election irrespective of political party or percentage attained, we could easily see two Democrats advancing from the state’s June 2nd open primary.

Election Reflections;
Reps. Garcia, Golden to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

Election Reflections

Clearly, Democrats enjoyed a blowout election on Tuesday night in most places, but particularly so in their historically strong regions.

The turnout model, which is always the deciding factor in elections, obviously favored the Democrats as we saw increased participation from the party’s voters in almost all elections. Early indications suggest that the Hispanic vote swung back decidedly toward the Democrats, thus becoming a major factor in Tuesday’s outcome.

The turnout disparity was erratic. In Virginia, voter participation rose only 2.3 percent from 2021. In New Jersey, the increase when compared to four years ago was substantially better, 22.0 percent. The New York mayoral turnout, however, almost doubled. Compared to 2021, the turnout was up 79 percent from when Mayor Eric Adams won his election. Yet, despite the wide variance in turnout growth, the Democratic results across the board were largely the same.

The low Virginia increase is surprising since early voting ran 20 percentage points higher than the 2021 benchmark. This means that Election Day voting, largely from the Republican sector, was well off its previous pace set in 2021.

Post-election surveys indicate that the economy is the top concern of people who voted in the odd-numbered year election. Rejecting some of the Trump Administration moves is another key underlying reason for Tuesday’s Democratic sweep.

The Democrats also gained huge redistricting victories with the passage of Proposition 50 in California and the Democratic sweep in Virginia. Carried through to the most extreme predictions, Democrats could be set to add five seats in California and four in Virginia. Such would neutralize most of gains that Republicans will see in places like Texas, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina.

It remains to be seen how the Republicans rebound from Tuesday’s definitive defeat. If, however, the economy doesn’t substantially improve by the time the voting cycle begins next year, seeing a similar outcome to what was witnessed this week is certainly a possibility.

US House Turnover

In Illinois, in a surprise move at candidate filing time for the 2026 March midterm primary, four-term Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), who failed in an attempt to win the 2023 Chicago Mayor’s race, did not file for re-election. This opened the door for his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia (D), to step up.

Some states, California for example, have a system that prevents a move like the one now being implemented in Illinois. Here, Rep. Garcia was mum about his retirement plans in order to pave the way for his anointed candidate to take the seat virtually without opposition. In the California example, should an incumbent not submit re-election documents the candidate filing period is extended five days to ensure that more individuals have the opportunity to enter the open contest.

In Maine, four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) also announced that he will not seek re-election. We will analyze this situation in a future update.

With Reps. Garcia and Golden not seeking re-election, it means that there will be 34 open seats headed into the 2026 election (20R; 11D; 3 new) with another two headed for special elections. Additionally, because Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the New Jersey Governor’s race, a special election for her congressional seat will be scheduled in mid-January after she officially takes her new office.

The succession process to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) began on Tuesday and the results yielded Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) advancing to a runoff election to be scheduled when the Nov. 4 results become official.

The TN-7 special election between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) is scheduled for Dec. 2. The western Tennessee seat became open when GOP Rep. Mark Green resigned to accept a position in the private sector.

Van Epps is favored in the TN-7 district because the voter history leans heavily Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; Trump ’24: 60.4 – 38.1 percent; Rep. Green ’24: 59.5 – 38.1 percent).

Considering Tuesday’s results, expect Democrats to make a renewed push to capture the Tennessee seat. It is likely that Republicans will increase their voter turnout activity and possibly make a strategic change. In any event, the national political focus will now shift to the Volunteer State for its Dec. 2 special election.

Democrats are assured of winning the TX-18 special because the runoff features two party members. Under the new Texas redistricting map, whoever wins the runoff must immediately turn around and compete in a new 18th District against veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a regular March 3 Democratic primary. Therefore, whether Menefee or Edwards wins the special election, his or her tenure in the House could be short lived.

A Democratic Sweep: Sherrill, Spanberger, Mamdani and More All Win

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

Elections

New York City voters elected Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as their next Mayor.

Last night’s election results yielded victories for Democrats across the board and it appears that high prices and the state of the economy are among the top reasons.

Of course, Democrats will argue that their attacks against President Trump compared to the election results is a rejection of the current administration, and the votes provide evidence for such a claim, but New Jersey and New York City are heavily Democratic enclaves, and the Washington, DC metropolitan area, including the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs have repeatedly proven itself as the most anti-Trump region in the country.

Therefore, within the partisan context, the election results should not be considered overly surprising.

New York City

As expected, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (Democratic/Working Families) was elected Mayor of New York City last night, capturing what looks to be a bare majority of the vote.

In the end, it appears the self-described Democratic Socialist outpaced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (Fight and Deliver Party), and Curtis Sliwa (Republican/Protect Animals Party) by a 50.4 – 41.6 – 7.1 percent margin. Polling did not fully capture Mamdani’s strength, nor Republican Sliwa’s weakness. In particular, the latter man polled approximately ten points better on average than his ultimate performance.

Certainly, barely going over the 50 percent mark gives Mamdani the mandate he needs to implement his more radical agenda, and certainly will have support to do so from the New York City Council. Much more to come in the ensuing weeks about this result and the new Mamdani Administration.

New Jersey

This gubernatorial election outcome was one of the most surprising decisions of last night as Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) scored what will likely be a 56-43 percent win over 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli despite polling that suggested the race was falling into the toss-up range.

The Sherrill victory represents the first time a political party has won three consecutive New Jersey gubernatorial elections since World War II.

With the Congresswoman’s victory, we will see another special congressional election, this time in her 11th District seat. Sherrill will resign from the House shortly before she assumes the Governorship in mid-January. One of her first duties will be to schedule the special election for voters to elect her successor. Already vying for positioning are former NJ-7 Congressman Tom Malinowski (D) and several local Democratic officials.

Virginia

Polling in this race was spot on, as survey research firms were not only consistently projecting an Abigail Spanberger victory, but they also saw the surge for the Democratic candidates in the final week of early voting and on Election Day. The combination carried not only Spanberger, but also Lt. Gov.-Elect Ghazala Hashmi and Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones to victory as part of the Democratic sweep.

The most surprising result was Jones defeating AG Miyares after the controversy broke several weeks ago about him fantasizing about killing his Republican opponents. Much analysis about the Attorney General’s result will be forthcoming over the next period of days when the actual results can be digested.

California Proposition 50

As expected, last night Golden State special election voters easily adopted the referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional map with a plan that Gov. Gavin Newsom had drawn. The redraw gerrymander could net the Democrats five seats and reduce the Republicans to four of the state’s 52 congressional districts.

Whether the map actually produces such results remain to be seen in the 2026 election. We can expect to see legal challenges to the entire process to soon be forthcoming but with a strong public vote, overturning the new map becomes very difficult.

TX-18

The jungle primary for the third of four special congressional elections to fill vacancies was held in Houston last night. The results will go to a runoff election that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule as soon as the Secretary of State verifies that no candidate received a majority of the vote.

The verification will come quickly, since Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) placed first and second with 32 and 25 percent of the vote, respectively. Therefore, no one came close to obtaining majority support.

The problem for whoever wins the runoff election, which will likely be in January, is that he or she will have to turn around and participate in a March 3, 2026, primary in another version of the 18th District and against incumbent Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) under the new Texas congressional map.

The Democrats are assured of keeping the 18th District seat to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), but the prize may be short-lived because the regular primary in the new district will be just weeks after securing victory.

Election Day Preview

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025

Elections

The major odd-numbered elections are upon us with early voting completed and election day occurring today in New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia. Polling projects a good night forthcoming for Democrats, but the available early voting statistics suggest Republicans might be stronger than the polls indicate.

New Jersey

The open Governor’s race is the main focus on the Garden State ballot, and it may well become the most interesting contest to follow tonight.

The polling momentum has closed in Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s favor with the latest five publicly released surveys from the Oct. 25-30 period finding Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) holding an average 3.4 percentage point advantage. This number is down from a much higher range, usually in the upper single digits, for most of the race.

Furthermore, if the SoCal Strategies poll (Oct. 28-29; 800 likely New Jersey voters) is removed from the group because its seven-point spread (52-45 percent) is an outlier when compared with the other four (Atlas Intel, Emerson College, Quantus Insights, and Suffolk University), the Sherrill average point lead drops to 2.5.

Additionally, Ciattarelli has under-polled in his previous races, particularly in the primary earlier this year and by a large amount. Going into the five-way 2025 Republican primary, Ciattarelli’s highest preference number was 54 percent yet he ended with a 68 percent actual vote total. Should this Ciattarelli under-poll pattern continue in this year’s general election, we could see an upset.

New Jersey early voting statistics are not as available as in some other places, but Ciattarelli’s assessment that more Republicans are voting early that ever before appears correct. According to CBS News, approximately 514,500 Democrats have voted early as compared to an approximate 279,000 Republicans, and 177,000 non-affiliated and minor party voters.

These raw number figures translate into 56.5 percent of the early voters being Democrats, 30.6 percent Republicans, and 12.9 percent non-affiliated and others. While the Democrats lead the early vote count, their percentage is down from 2024 when the Dems accounted for 68.0 percent of the early voting participation numbers and 2022 when their percentage was 59.9 according to the Target Early Target Smart organization calculations.

Though the 2025 Republican number is much smaller than the Democratic percentage, it is up from 27.4 percent in 2024, but down from a 32.2 percent participation factor in 2022. The Non-affiliated/ Other category accounted for 4.7 percent of the early voters in 2024 and 7.9 percent in 2022. Therefore, the NA/O segment’s 12.9 percent early turnout is considerably ahead of the previous elections.

New York City

While Assemblyman and New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani’s (D) polling percentages are falling somewhat as Election Day dawns, the three-way candidate structure virtually assures that he will win tomorrow’s election, but likely with only a plurality of the votes.

While the majority of NYC voters are likely to choose a mayoral candidate other than the Democratic nominee, the split between former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (I) and Republican Curtis Sliwa will benefit Mamdani.

Since the race has not changed greatly since Cuomo entered under a minor party label after losing the Democratic primary, today’s outcome is unlikely to be surprising.

Virginia

In the Old Dominion’s gubernatorial race, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is clearly favored to defeat Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and convert the commonwealth’s Governorship to the Democrats. Incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is ineligible to seek re-election under the only one-term limit law in the country.

The final five Virginia gubernatorial polls conducted during the Oct. 25-31 period (from Atlas Intel, Echelon Insights, Insider Advantage/Trafalgar Group, SoCal Strategies, and State Navigate) give Spanberger leads of between four and 12 points, margins she has maintained for most of the election cycle.

Yet, the early vote numbers tend to suggest an improved GOP standing. All five of the state’s congressional districts where the electorate sends a Republican to the US House have substantially improved their early vote participation rates when compared to 2021.

According to the latest available reports from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), the statewide increase in early voting is just under 10 percent. All five Republican House districts, however, are up between 20 and 41.9 percent in early voting participation through Friday.

From the six Democratic districts, only two report increased turnout compared to 2021, and even this pair’s increase is below the statewide average. The other four Democratic congressional districts, at least through Friday’s count, have failed to equal their previous 2021 early voting numbers.

Since Virginia’s early voting numbers are not measured by political party preference, largely because the Old Dominion does not register voters by party, it is difficult to tell if the congressional district breakdowns accurately reflect the partisan composition of 2025 early voting.

The clue, however, that the Republican represented districts are all substantially up in early voting and most of the Democratic seats are down should suggest that Republicans are likely to outperform their polling standing.

Furthermore, it is important to remember that the Republicans won the 2021 election, so Democrats falling behind their losing benchmark numbers from the previous election is another clue that 2025 Virginia voter enthusiasm is higher on the GOP side.

The most likely outcome of tomorrow’s election, however, is a Spanberger victory, a closer Lieutenant Governor’s race, but one that still suggests a slight victory for Democratic nominee Ghazala Hashmi, and a Republican victory for Attorney General Jason Miyares, largely due to the controversy surrounding Democratic nominee Jay Jones.

Updates on Louisiana, Maryland,
& Ohio Redistricting Plans

Maryland Congressional Districts (Click on map to see interactive version on DavesRedistricting.org.)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

Redistricting

We saw redistricting moves occur in several states last week. Below is a recap of the action:

Louisiana

As the redistricting world awaits the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the Bayou State’s Governor and legislature passed legislation to move the state’s primary in anticipation of a ruling coming well after the first of next year.

Previously, the legislature and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) changed the Louisiana primary system to do away with their jungle primary held concurrently with the general election and an accompanying December runoff for those races where no candidate received majority support on the initial vote.

The new primary system returned to a partisan format scheduled for April 18, 2026, with a two-candidate runoff on May 30 for the races where no candidate received majority support.

The legislation passed earlier last week, now on its way to Gov. Landry for his signature, would move the initial primary date to May 16 with the associated runoff election on June 27.

Changing the primary will give the state more time to adjust their congressional map to adhere to whatever the Supreme Court eventually decides. The change also gives the candidates more time to campaign in the Senate primary where several contenders are mounting GOP nomination challenges against Sen. Bill Cassidy.

Maryland

It appears the Maryland legislature will not engage in another redistricting. According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) sent a letter to his colleagues saying that the Senate leadership “is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle congressional redistricting.”

Sen. Ferguson’s argument is that redrawing the current map “… could reopen the ability for someone to challenge” the present plan upon which the Democrats were able to routinely claim seven of the state’s eight congressional seats. Basically, the Senate President was explaining he was not going to risk a 7D-1R map for an uncertain attempt to add one more to the Democratic column.

Without the Senate’s participation, redistricting in Maryland will not occur. Thus, we see a break for the state’s lone Republican Congressman, Andy Harris (R-Cambridge), and the national Republican goal of maximizing their number of seats through mid-decade redistricting.

Ohio

The Buckeye State has both a complicated redistricting system and law. The process first starts with a commission of elected officials who authorize the drawing of maps, then votes upon and presents the approved plan to each house of the legislature. A map must receive three-fifths support in both houses to remain in place for the entire decade. Passing with a lesser amount means the plan can stand for only two elections. The Governor retains veto power over the completed legislative process.

Since the 2021 congressional plan failed to receive three-fifths support in both the state House of Representatives and Senate, it could only remain in place for the 2022 and 2024 elections. Therefore, Ohio must enact a new congressional plan before the 2026 election.

The bipartisan commission came to an agreement on a map last week, which will now be reported to the legislature. Understanding that the Republicans have strong majorities in both houses, but not three-fifths strength, the plan appears to give the GOP a chance to increase their delegation share by two seats.

The partisan percentage increase in both principal targets, however, appears to still make Democratic victories possible. The purpose of the compromise is to obtain enough bipartisan support to keep a new map intact for the decade’s remaining elections.

Statistics for the districts are not yet publicly available, but the new plan appears to make Districts 7, 9, and 13 slightly more Republican.

District 7 is already a Republican seat that two-term Congressman Max Miller (R-Rocky River) represents. The 9th is veteran Democratic Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur’s Toledo-anchored seat where her victory margin under the current boundaries fell to less than a percentage point in 2024. Finally, the politically marginal Akron anchored 13th CD is also made a bit redder. Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) has averaged just under 52 percent in two consecutive elections.

Both Reps. Kaptur and Sykes were going to be major 2026 Republican targets and this map will make them only slightly more vulnerable.

Republicans were also looking to target 1st District Congressman Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati), but this map keeps the district in the marginal category and likely makes the Congressman at least a slight favorite for re-election.

Much more will be known when the map statistics and voting history under the new boundaries become publicly available. Until then, the swing margins remain points of conjecture.