Monthly Archives: November 2025

California Numbers:
Some Democrats Actually Fare Worse

California Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version: Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

Redistricting

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan division for all of the new Golden State districts.

Several Democratic incumbents, and surprisingly the two considered most vulnerable heading into the 2026 election, actually fare worse when compared to the previous draw. Several Republican districts have no doubt been destroyed, but the situation may not be as dire for the GOP as Gov. Newsom’s media spin leads one to believe.

Starting in Northern California, Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-Oroville) 1st District has been transformed into a Democratic district. According to the DRA partisan lean calculations, the 1st moves from 60.2R – 37.7D to 55.2D – 44.1R. With state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) positioning himself to challenge Rep. LaMalfa, the Republican Congressman will have a very difficult time winning an eighth term.

Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is leaving his Sacramento County 6th District to run in District 3, which is now a point more Democratic than his home district. There, he will ostensibly challenge two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). The move puts Rep. Kiley in a bad position since his 3rd CD has flipped from holding a partisan lean of 52.5R – 45.6D to one having a 53.4D – 45.7R split, a net swing of just under 15 percentage points toward the Democratic segment.

There is some speculation that Rep. Kiley will vacate District 3 and attempt to unseat fellow Republican Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, one of just four safe Republican seats in the state. The new CA-5 partisan lean: 60.7R – 38.7D.

Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) was the closest winner of all 435 districts in the 2024 election, a 187-vote win over then-Rep. John Duarte (R). Surprisingly, the new map makes the latest version of CA-13 slightly less Democratic. The previous partisan lean was 54.0D – 44.2R, yet Duarte won the seat in 2022 and barely lost in 2024. The new partisan lean is a net 4.6 percentage points more Republican (52.4D – 46.9R).

Though the new 13th District remains more Democratic, the congressional voting history shows weakness in the Dem fortress. A strong candidate such as former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R), who has already announced that he will run, projects another difficult race for Gray.

Fresno Rep. Jim Costa (D) has averaged only 53.4 percent of the vote in his two elections but his district, just like Rep. Gray’s, actually moves more Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Instead of seeing a 58.5D – 39.9R partisan lean, the new district records a 54.4D – 45.0R swing, a net gain of 9.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor. Though Rep. Costa will still be favored to carry the new 21st CD, seeing a potential Republican upset develop here is not outside the realm of possibility.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) has always been a major national Democratic target since he represents one of the most Democratic districts to send a Republican to the US House. Despite facing an adverse partisan lean in the previous District 22 version of 55.5D – 42.6R, Rep. Valadao secured two consecutive victories. This is another Central Valley district where the non-partisan calculations find the Republican factor getting better on this new map.

Moving forward, the DRA partisan lean for CD-22 is 52.1D – 47.3R, representing a net Republican gain of 8.1 percentage points. Therefore, with Rep. Valadao securing a 53-47 percent victory under the previous partisan lean, his chances should improve under this new 2026 map.

Seven-term Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) also sees his sprawling desert district become a bit more Republican. According to the past and present DRA partisan lean calculations, Rep. Ruiz’s 25th District is 5.5 percentage points more Republican. The new partisan lean is 54.2D – 45.3R, which clearly still favors Democrats, but the new draw makes the seat potentially more competitive.

The new 40th District is the final domain conceded to the Republicans. At this point, it appears both Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra) may be fighting each other to capture this seat. Rep. Calvert has already declared he will run here as his 41st District was transferred to Los Angeles County from Riverside County, and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) has declared her intent to run in that district.

Neither Reps. Calvert nor Kim represent a great deal of the new 40th, so we will see how this paired contest eventually unfolds. It is possible that both could advance to the general election under the state’s jungle primary format so we might see a year-long campaign between the two Republicans.

Another surprising aspect on this new map is the draw for freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) in the new 45th District. In 2024, Tran unseated two-term GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by 653 votes, which made it the second-closest congressional race in California and the nation. Yet, under the new map, the partisan lean actually moves slightly more toward the Republicans. When Rep. Tran won, the DRA partisan lean was 52.2D – 45.9R. The new ratio is 51.7D – 47.5R, a net swing of 2.1 percentage points toward the GOP.

While Rep. Tran will still see more Democratic voters in his district than Republican, we can count on the GOP making a major effort here. Under the new draw, this seat could be another option for Rep. Kim.

The final district that was greatly changed is Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-San Diego) 48th District. The seat flips from having a partisan lean of 58.3R – 39.8D to a new district, largely because of including most of the city of Encinitas, that yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan split. Obviously, the district is somewhat more Democratic, but the numbers are close enough that Rep. Issa will have a fighting chance to win again.

While Democrats will very likely gain seats under this new draw and reduce California’s Republican contingent to fewer than the nine seats they currently control, stretching to a Democratic gain of five might not be achieved.

Ohio Redistricts

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version on Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

Redistricting

Ohio’s unique redistricting process ended as quickly as it began.

The Buckeye State’s seven-member redistricting commission, which is comprised of elected officials from both parties and includes Gov. Mike DeWine (R), unanimously passed a new congressional map. The act of the commissioners reaching a bipartisan consensus vote means the map becomes law and does not go to the legislature for approval. The plan will now stand for the remainder of the decade.

Ohio voters previously adopted changes to the redistricting process that created the state’s unusual elected officials commission (other commission states typically have citizen members), which involves the legislature if the bipartisan panel cannot unanimously agree.

If the commissioners reached an impasse, the plan would advance to the legislature where a three-fifths vote of each house would be required to enact a map for the entire decade. Passing a plan with majority support, but short of a three-fifths tally, means the district configuration could only stand for two elections. Such was the case with the 2021 congressional map; hence, the legal requirement to redraw the current plan for the decade’s succeeding elections.

Ohio becomes the fourth state to complete its redistricting process joining Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina. California will soon follow suit since their ballot referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map passed in today’s election.

The new Ohio plan heavily targets veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) who, first elected in 1982, is the longest serving female in congressional history. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Kaptur’s new 9th District becomes a net 10.7 points more Republican.

The 2021 map, which was used in 2022 and 2024, carried an OH-9 partisan lean of 48.8D – 48.6R. In 2024, Rep. Kaptur’s victory margin was just 48.3 – 47.6 percent over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). According to the Down Ballot political blog reporters, President Trump would have carried new District by a 55-44 percent clip.

The new partisan lean will be 54.8R – 44.2D, and state Senate President Rob McColley (R-Napoleon), whose residence has been added to the 9th District, is potentially waiting in the wings to initiate a congressional challenge.

The original GOP objective included making the state’s 13th District, that of Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron), more Republican. In her two congressional elections, she has averaged 51.9 percent of the vote. As a result of the partisan commission members’ compromise offering, Rep. Sykes’ district actually became just under a half-point more Democratic according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Therefore, the new District 13 partisan lean is 51.2D – 47.2R.

Kamala Harris would have carried the new CD-13 with a 51-48 percent margin. In the previous version, her victory over President Trump equaled just 183 votes, making it the tightest congressional district in the country for the 2024 presidential election.

Former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), who held Rep. Sykes to her close 2024 re-election victory and was planning to run again, says he would have no victory path in the district’s new version. As a result, Coughlin announced that he will not return for a rematch.

While District 13 became slightly more Democratic under the new draw, the Cincinnati-anchored District 1 now flips from Harris to Trump. Instead of Rep. Sykes being a main GOP target, it is two-term Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) who will draw the difficult path to re-election in 2026.

According to Down Ballot, the 1st District 2024 presidential numbers flip from what was 53-46 percent Harris to 51-48 percent Trump. The DRA partisan lean spins from 49.9D – 47.9R to 50.8R – 48.2D, meaning the political advantage almost symmetrically turns.

While the Republicans hoped to pass a map that would have given them an extra two seats in the Ohio delegation (the current partisan split is 10R-5D), they now see one district likely coming their way with two other Democratic seats moving toward the competitive category.

Overall, of the 15 Ohio districts, only two become more Democratic, Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus) seat, and that of western Republican Congressman Warren Davidson (R-Troy). The remaining 13 CDs all swing slightly more Republican.

Questions arose as to why the Democratic commission members would agree to the compromise map. The members responded saying they believe this plan was their best option, arguing the legislature would have drawn an even more partisan map. Conversely, some Republicans are attacking the GOP commission members for not pushing the map into the legislature.

Expect the political jockeying for position within the new congressional districts to immediately begin now that the campaign playing field is set.

Utah Redistricts

Watch this report by Fox 13 News|Utah: Utah Redistricting

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

Redistricting

On Monday, the presiding Utah state judge chose a new congressional map that will significantly change the Beehive State delegation.

Previously, Judge Dianna Gibson (D) had invalidated the current map drawn in 2021 because she maintained the legislature ignored criteria that voters approved through a ballot initiative. The Utah state Supreme Court then upheld her opinion.

The result included bringing forth maps that adhered to the missing criteria. Judge Gibson chose the version that created a Salt Lake City metro district that will assuredly elect a Democratic Representative and change the Utah delegation from a 4R-0D contingent to 3R-1D.

An alternative plan would have created two Republican seats and two politically marginal districts that both parties would have had a chance of winning. The judge’s decision, however, now gives former one-term Congressman Ben McAdams (D), among others, a chance at winning a Democratic primary, which would punch a ticket to the House of Representatives.

McAdams was elected to the House in 2018, defeating the now-deceased Congresswoman Mia Love (R). He then lost two years later to current Representative and former NFL football player Burgess Owens (R-Draper).

Kamala Harris would have carried the new 1st District by a 60-37 percent count according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The remaining three districts are all solidly Republican, featuring Trump victories with spreads from 29 to 41 points in 2024.

With the Democrats gaining a Utah seat, one of the current four Republican Representatives will be out after the 2026 election.

Of the three, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) appears to have the new northern 2nd District all to himself. Though his home is not in the 2nd, his original hometown of Ogden is one of the key population centers. The other is the city of Logan where Utah State University is located.

The new 3rd CD, which looks like a backwards letter “L”, is the seat that currently would house two Republican incumbents, two-term Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and freshman Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine). The district begins in the Provo area, moves south all the way to Arizona along the Colorado border, and then west to Nevada, the area that encompasses Rep. Maloy’s home turf.

Rep. Owens’ home is in the new 4th CD, which covers the west-central part of the state. This district contains a significant portion of Rep. Maloy’s constituency, which means she could also run in new District 4.

If all four Republican incumbents seek re-election, then the Maloy-Kennedy pairing is the most likely outcome. Rep. Maloy is the weakest politically in the delegation. She won the 2024 Republican primary by just 176 votes (50.1 percent) after barely securing 43 percent of the nominating convention vote. Not opting to circulate petitions, Maloy could have lost her seat in the convention had she slipped below the primary qualifying 40 percent delegate vote factor.

Rep. Kennedy is much stronger. He won the five-way Republican primary with almost 40 percent of the vote after demonstrating dominance in the nominating convention with 61.5 percent of the delegate vote.

Another scenario suggests that three-term Rep. Owens, who will be 75 years. old at the next election, could retire. If this were his decision, Rep. Maloy would likely run in the 4th District, thus leaving the 3rd CD to Kennedy.

Most of the delegation has little in the way of available campaign funds. The exception, Rep. Moore, holds almost $2.2 million in his campaign account, which compares very favorably against Rep. Kennedy’s $240,000, Rep. Maloy’s $201,000, and $167,000 for Rep. Owens. The fundraising figures are from the members’ Sept. 30 Federal Election Commission quarterly report and could have changed significantly since the totals were made public.

The new judicial map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 election. Since the state Supreme Court has already ruled earlier in the process, any lawsuit filed to overturn the map would have very little chance of succeeding.

Therefore, the bottom line on the just completed Utah redistricting process is a one seat Democratic gain.

Texas Rep. Jodey Arrington to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025

House

Texas Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock)

The number of US House members announcing they won’t seek re-election next year is beginning to form a cavalcade.

Five-term Texas Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), chairman of the House Budget Committee, yesterday announcing that he won’t seek re-election next year, increased the number of retirement decisions to six in just the past 10 days.

In his retirement announcement, Rep. Arrington said, “I believe, as our founding fathers did, in citizen leadership – temporary service, not a career; and, it’s time to do what George Washington did, and to ride off into that big, beautiful West Texas sunset, and to live under the laws that I passed.”

Since 2010, we have seen the number of House open seats fall to anywhere between 48 and 64 in each election cycle. This year the pace of those voluntarily leaving Congress was slower until recently.

Now, the open-seat count, adding the newly drawn seats in Texas and California but not including the vacant districts in special elections (TN-7; TX-18) and the soon-to-be open seat in New Jersey (NJ-11; Governor-Elect Mikie Sherrill), lies at 40 with others to follow once candidate filing deadlines begin to appear on the political horizon.

We are about to see other seats open in California once members decide where they will run under the new map. We have already seen two Golden State members, Reps. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona), switch districts.

In northern California, Rep. Bera is eschewing his Sacramento County 6th District, where he would be the lone incumbent, to challenge 3rd District Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/ Sacramento) in a district that now favors the Democrats.

Speculation is underway that Rep. Kiley may depart his 3rd District for another seat, possibly even challenging fellow Republican Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in the new 5th CD that stretches from the Sacramento suburbs south into the San Joaquin Valley of Central California.

In Southern California, Rep. Calvert found his 41st District broken into several pieces, thus forcing him into new District 40 to challenge fellow Republican Young Kim (R-La Habra). Other Los Angeles County members could be shifted to other seats as well and we may see Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) run in what is now a Democratic version of District 41. Expect to witness several interesting political musical chairs moves once the California redistricting dust begins to settle.

Of the 40 open seats, counting the three newly created seats from Texas redistricting, we see Rep. Arrington becoming the 12th exiting House member to retire from elective politics. Eleven are running for the Senate, an additional 11 have entered their state’s gubernatorial campaign, two are running for election in a different congressional district than the one they currently represent, and one, Texas Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), is running for state Attorney General.

In terms of the two special election districts, a new poll was released for the TN-7 race in the western Tennessee district from which four-term Rep. Mark Green (R) resigned to accept a position in the private sector.

A Workbench Strategy survey (Oct. 15-19; 400 likely TN-7 special election voters; 100 oversample of Democratic voters; live interview & text) found Republican former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps leading state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) by a 52-44 percent count.

A segment defined as “the most motivated voters” found the two candidates tied. This suggests that the Democrats have an enthusiasm edge, meaning this Dec. 2 general election could be closer than the Republican historical voting patterns would suggest.

The TX-18 race will go to a double Democratic runoff between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards. When the final totals become official, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the runoff election, likely for a date in January.

With New Jersey Rep. Mike Sherrill (D-Montclair) being elected Governor last week, expect her to resign her congressional seat in mid-January just before taking the oath of office. She will then schedule a special election for voters to choose her successor.

NJ Rep. Coleman to Retire; Rogers Up in Michigan; Allred Down in Texas

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025

A congressional retirement announcement from New Jersey, ex-US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) taking the lead in a new Michigan Senate general election poll, and a Texas Senate survey that finds 2024 US Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred again trailing in the Democratic primary, are outlined in this round up. These are the top political stories coming from the early part of the Veterans Day weekend. Also, overnight, Republican House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (TX-19) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026. Arrington has served for nearly a decade in the US House. More on his retirement in an upcoming post.

NJ-12

New Jersey Rep. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ-12)

Yesterday, saying “it’s time to pass the torch,” six-term Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), 80, announced that she will not seek re-election next year.

Prior to her election to the US House in 2014, she served 17 years in the New Jersey General Assembly, four years as Majority Leader. From 2002-06, Watson Coleman chaired the New Jersey Democratic Party.

The Garden State’s 12th District, which includes the capital city of Trenton, Princeton University; and North, East, and South Brunswick; is reliably Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 56.5D – 43.5R partisan lean.

The central New Jersey district was at one time a Republican domain but redistricting and a change in voting patterns have yielded Democratic representation since the beginning of 1999. Therefore, Rep. Watson Coleman’s successor will almost assuredly come from winning what promises to be a hotly contested Democratic primary.

The Watson Coleman retirement means 39 seats will be open in 2026, not counting the CDs headed to special elections in Tennessee and Texas, along with New Jersey’s 11th District seat when Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) resigns from the House.

From the group of 2026 open seat members, Rep. Watson Coleman becomes the 15th Democrat not to seek re-election and the 11th to retire from politics. The other 28 are seeking a different office or moving to a congressional district other than the one they currently represent.

Michigan Senate

The Rosetta Stone polling organization released the results of an independent poll that finds Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers polling ahead of all three Democratic US Senate contenders.

Rogers, who served seven terms in the House before retiring, returned to enter elective politics with his run for the Senate in 2024. In an open-seat battle with then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), Rogers came within 19,006 votes from just under 5.6 million votes cast of winning the race, a percentage margin of 48.6 – 48.3.

The Rosetta Stone poll, released over the weekend, (Oct. 23-25; 637 likely Michigan general election voters) finds Rogers, who is virtually unopposed for the Republican nomination, ahead beyond the polling margin of error individually against each of the Democrats: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Opposite Rep. Stevens, Rogers leads 47-40 percent. If Sen. McMorrow was his opponent, the Rogers edge would be a similar 46-39 percent. The Rogers’ advantage grows if El-Sayed becomes his general election opponent. Under this scenario, the former Congressman posts a 45-31 percent margin.

Other polls have shown this race much closer, but this is the first publicly released statewide poll since June.

Rosetta Stone tested the Democratic Senate primary, but the sample size of only 287 likely Democratic primary voters indicates the results should be considered statistically insignificant in a state the size of Michigan.

Texas Senate

New polling in the Texas Senate Democratic primary again shows trouble for 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred.

The Impact Research survey conducted for the James Talarico Senate campaign (Oct. 23-29; 836 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds state Rep. Talarico taking a 48-42 percent lead over Allred.

In a late September survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, the academic pollsters found Allred lagging in last place if the Democratic field consisted of he, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), former El Paso Rep. and statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke, and state Rep. Talarico. For her part, Rep. Crockett says she is considering the Senate race. Crockett has led several Democratic statewide polls.

It has been known for some time that the Republican Senate primary would be a hard-fought contest between four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and recently entered Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Now, however, analyzing the available polling data leads to the conclusion that the Democratic primary appears just as competitive as the Republican contest.

A Trio of US House Updates:
Stefanik, Calvert, Golden

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

House

Political moves are now coming fast and furious. We see an increase in retirements, members announcing for different offices, and a just-beginning round of California political musical chairs, because last Tuesday voters adopted the state’s new redistricting map.

Among the moves are the recently announced political plans from a trio of US House Representatives: Ken Calvert (R-CA), Jared Golden (D-ME), and Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Today, we take a look at each situation.

Stefanik: NY-21

Rep. Elise Stefanik / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

As has been expected for some time, six-term New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) announced on Friday that she will challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in next year’s statewide race.

The announcement comes at an interesting time, however, just three days after Republicans suffered crushing defeats in California, New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia.

Though Gov. Hochul’s job approval numbers have been up and down over the course of her serving part of resigned Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) final term and being elected once in her own right, Rep. Stefanik, and any other Empire State Republican, running statewide incurs a formidable challenge even under the best of circumstances. For example, the last GOP candidate to win a major New York statewide race was former Gov. George Pataki, who was elected to a third term in 2002.

Upon his re-election, President Trump nominated Rep. Stefanik as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, but her nomination was withdrawn because the GOP House leadership did not want to risk another seat in a special election that might have threatened the party’s small majority. At that point, it became clear that a Stefanik for Governor move would soon be forming.

Democrats likely already have their 2026 open congressional race nominee. When it appeared that Stefanik would be headed to the UN, the local county Democratic Party chairs nominated dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who has already raised $3.7 million for a congressional race and has just over $2 million in his campaign account.

The 21st District is reliably Republican, but the GOP lost the seat prior to Stefanik’s initial victory in 2014. Therefore, we can expect a competitive open general election next year.

Calvert: CA-41

One of the hardest-hit Republicans under the new California gerrymander, which is designed to neutralize expected GOP gains in Texas, is veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona). The new California congressional map eviscerated Rep. Calvert’s desert 41st District, which had performed as a Lean Republican seat. The new plan places different parts of the current CA-41 in other surrounding Los Angeles/Riverside/San Bernardino area CDs.

Wanting to remain in Congress, Rep. Calvert announced that he will move to new District 40, where he will likely face a fellow Republican incumbent in a paired situation. It appears that Calvert and three-term Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) will compete for one of only four districts that now favor Republicans.

California members continue to survey their 2026 prospects, so we can expect to see other district moves in the coming days. Further incumbent pairings could soon be announced as the Golden State political musical chairs begins in earnest.

Golden: ME-2

Last week, Maine Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) announced that he will not seek a fifth term next year. The Pine Tree State’s northern 2nd Congressional District is the most Republican seat in the country that elects a Democrat to the House, and the Congressman indicated that ending his tenure after four terms is proper since Maine’s term limit for its state legislators is four two-year terms.

Had he remained, Golden would have faced a difficult political year. His general election opponent would certainly have been former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in a district that LePage carried all three times he ran statewide. Therefore, a Golden-LePage race would have been rated a toss-up.

Before getting to the general election, Golden was staring at a Democratic primary challenge from the ideological left in the person of State Auditor and ex-Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.

Because Maine elects its statewide constitutional officers through the state legislature and not the voters, Dunlap does not have the electoral experience that he would have in commensurate positions from most other states. Still, he would have been a formidable Democratic opponent to Rep. Golden and is now likely to be considered the front runner for the party nomination.

Speculation at the beginning of the year pegged Golden as a possible gubernatorial candidate, and while he would have been credible in the general election, his primary prospects would have been rated as difficult. Golden would have been a centrist campaigning before a very liberal primary vote base. Some speculation also suggested that he might challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but as a former staffer to the five-term incumbent, such an option was never seriously pursued.

Open Seats

With a spate of political announcements last week, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi retiring, we now see 38 open US House seats in addition to the special elections being conducted in Tennessee and Texas.

Of the 38, a total of 22 are Republican-held, 13 Democratic, with three new seats being created through the Texas redistricting project. Most of the 2026 races, however, will not feature competitive open general election campaigns, but all will host hot primaries. Of the 38 current open seats, it is reasonable to expect only nine competitive general election contests. The other 29 will safely or likely remain with the incumbent party.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi to Retire

Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election to Congress. Watch the video on X here: Nancy Pelosi announces retirement. (Or click on the image above to see the video posted to her X account. Her announcement comes at 4:45 in the video.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

House

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement yesterday morning that she will retire when the current Congress ends has taken center stage, politically.

Nancy Pelosi was first elected to Congress back in 1987 when she won a special election to replace the late Rep. Sala Burton (D-San Francisco). Burton ran for and was elected to the seat in 1983 when her husband, then-Rep. Phil Burton (D) suddenly passed away.

Before coming to Congress, Pelosi had been the California Democratic Party chair. She grew up, however, in Baltimore, where her father, Thomas D’Alesandro, was the city’s Mayor. Therefore, her introduction to elective politics came at a young age.

At the end of next year, Rep. Pelosi will have served 39 years in the House, and eight of those as Speaker. She became the first, and only, woman to hold that post when the Democrats regained the House majority in 2007 after a 12-year hiatus from power.

Rep. Pelosi would then take a step back to Minority Leader in 2011 when Democrats lost control of the House. She returned to the body’s top post in 2019 and held the Speakership until the Democrats again lost the majority in 2023. At that point, she retired from the House leadership but remained as a regular member.

This year, Rep. Pelosi’s political outlook back home became more challenging. While she’s had opponents in every election none had been substantial, meaning she was able to record landslide wins every two years.

When Sakat Chakrabarti, who quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) upset win in 2018, announced his intention to challenge the former Speaker in the 2026 Democratic primary most believed he was not a substantial threat to defeat Pelosi. His personal wealth and track record with AOC’s upset campaign, however, gave him a modicum of credibility that no other Pelosi opponent had commanded.

The political situation became even more intriguing last month when three-term state Sen. Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) announced that he would also enter the race, presumably to challenge Pelosi. The move was a surprise since it was assumed that Sen. Weiner, who represents even more of San Francisco than does Pelosi because California state Senate seats are bigger than congressional districts, would wait until she retired to run for Congress.

Some believed the Weiner move was a ploy to encourage the Congresswoman to retire. Most believed he would have backed off of the challenge should she have decided to run again. Had Weiner moved forward, and with Chakrabarti also in the race with the goal of building himself a local political base, the campaign would have become significant.

A race against this pair, even though her chances of achieving victory were high, promised to be a difficult political run that would have taken a toll.

Because there is little disagreement regarding the issues among Pelosi and her two opponents, much of the campaign would have concentrated on her age (86 at the time of the next election), and that San Francisco needed a new Representative who could build seniority for the long term.

Whether he was forcing the retirement issue or would have truly challenged her, the end result spun in Sen. Weiner’s favor, and he is now the heir apparent for the seat.

All things considered, the time appeared right for Pelosi to exit the political stage and begin her retirement after a very long career in the public eye.

With Rep. Pelosi leaving the 11th District, it means that there will be 38 open US House seats for the 2026 election to date, after the two special elections in Tennessee and Texas are filled. Like almost all other opens from both parties, CA-11, which changes little under the new California map, will be another safe seat for the incumbent party.

Considering that California employs the jungle primary system where the top two finishers advance to the general election irrespective of political party or percentage attained, we could easily see two Democrats advancing from the state’s June 2nd open primary.