Monthly Archives: September 2025

Adams Withdraws From NYC Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2025

Mayor

New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) / Photo by Marc A. Hermann, MTA via Flickr

The inevitable happened in the New York City Mayor’s race this week when the incumbent, Eric Adams, officially ended his campaign. How his withdrawal affects the race’s final month remains to be seen.

Languishing in all polling, enduring a federal indictment process from which President Trump pardoned him, unable to qualify for matching funds, and experiencing a tumultuous four years in office made the Mayor unelectable. In fact, his Democratic primary prospects were so poor that he exited the nomination race in April to run as an Independent.

Even with such a move he was unable to exceed 13 percent of the general election vote in any poll and shrunk to single digit support in the six most recent publicly released research studies from Sept. 8-22.

The New York City Mayor’s race has gained a great deal of national attention largely because the leading candidate and Democratic nominee, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria), is an avowed socialist who advocates radical ideas. He plans to create government-run grocery stores, adopt extreme rent control policies in what he says will “make New York City affordable,” and severely downsize the police force.

As we know, Mamdani defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary along with 10 others, posting 44 percent of the vote in the first round of voting. Under the city’s Ranked Choice Voting system, Mamdani exceeded the 50 percent mark in the third round, topping Cuomo 56-44 percent. The Ranked Choice system will not be used in the general election, meaning the winner can claim the office with only plurality support.

Winning with less than a majority appears to be on the horizon for Mamdani or any other potential winner. Despite his loss in the Democratic primary, Cuomo remains in the race as an Independent, or ostensibly the nominee of the Fight and Deliver Party.

The Republican nominee is perennial mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa who founded the Guardian Angels crime prevention organization in 1977 then known as the “Magnificent 13.” The unofficial citizens’ organization originally stood against violence on the New York City subway system and later expanded to citywide crime coverage. Always controversial, Sliwa summarily hosted a New York City radio show. Two other minor party candidates are also on the ballot.

The prevailing electoral analysis suggests a Mamdani plurality win, meaning the majority of voters would have chosen another candidate. Therefore, much pressure was put upon Mayor Adams to drop out since there appeared no scenario that would lead him to victory.

Now that Adams has withdrawn, that same pressure will now turn toward Sliwa, who has only performed slightly better in polling. With only an 11 percent Republican partisan registration within New York City, a Sliwa victory is highly improbable.

Seeing both Adams and Sliwa depart would create a virtual one-on-one scenario between Mamdani and Cuomo, which appears as the only scenario where the Democratic nominee could be defeated.

Yet, in prospective ballot tests without Adams, we see little movement. Earlier Mamdani-Cuomo-Sliwa polling was showing virtually no change in the size of the Democrat’s lead. In the six polls conducted from Sept. 8 to now, Mamdani averaged a consistent 44.3 percent, posting support figures of 45 percent in four of the surveys and 43 percent in the remaining two.

For his part, Cuomo averaged 25.8 percent in the six polls, almost 20 points behind the leader. Sliwa didn’t do much better than Mayor Adams. In the same half-dozen ballot test surveys, the Sliwa average was 12.8 percent, only slightly above the city Republican registration figure.

The campaign’s final month will be the determining factor, understanding that Cuomo has a great deal of ground to close. Sliwa staying in the race, as he continues to promise, suggests a Cuomo victory path becomes even smaller and allows Mamdani greater campaign latitude.

It will be interesting to see how the race concludes. Mamdani continues to enjoy momentum moving toward the general election, even in the face of what could mean a mass exodus of NYC businesses. The prevailing business community analysis believes large numbers of owners will depart because they will not be able to make a sustainable profit under new Mamdani Administration ordinances that the city may adopt.

Should we see negative economic or public safety ramifications occur once Mamdani wins the mayor’s election, expect the New York example to then be used against Democrats in many 2026 congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. At this point, even with Mayor Adams leaving the race, it appears the general election is still Mamdani’s to lose.

Weekly Political Wrap-Up:
Period Ending Sept. 26, 2025

Kansas US Congressional Districts / Click on map above, or go to govtrack.us to see interactive map.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

Senate

Kansas — The Republicans in the Kansas legislature are determining if they will call for a special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional map. The Republicans have a veto-proof majority in both chambers, so they would theoretically be able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto regarding map passage. A two-thirds vote of both houses is also required to call a special session. The GOP has the numbers, but their margin is very tight. Therefore, the situation is uncertain.

If the Republicans’ redistricting plan is successful and the lone Kansas Democratic US House member, Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park), is targeted and her 3rd CD made unwinnable for her party, the Congresswoman will forgo re-election and instead challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year.

Alabama — A former White House aide and ex-military advisor to Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has entered the state’s open Senate race. Morgan Murphy now joins Attorney General Steve Marshall and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in vying for the Republican nomination. The eventual winner is a virtual sure bet to replace Sen. Tuberville who is running for Governor instead of for re-election.

Additionally, recently retired Auburn University men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl ended speculation that he would run for the Senate with an announcement of non-candidacy.

Massachusetts — Last week, Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) said he would not challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) for renomination, but the door has apparently opened for two other House delegation members to potentially launch such a challenge. Both Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) each said they are now considering forging a Democratic primary against the Senator. Much time remains because Massachusetts has one of the latest primaries in the nation. In 2026, the Massachusetts primary vote is scheduled for Sept. 15.

New Hampshire — A new co/efficient survey (Sept. 10-12; 904 likely New Hampshire general election voters; 346 Republican primary likely voters; live interview & text) confirms that former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) entering the open New Hampshire Senate race would make the general election very competitive. According to the co/efficient ballot test, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) would lead Sununu, 46-43 percent, a virtual tie. In a Republican primary ballot test, Sununu tops former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, 40-23 percent.

Sununu was elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving three terms in the House. He defeated then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to win the Senate seat. Six years later, Shaheen returned for a re-match and unseated Sen. Sununu in the first Obama presidential election year. She won two further terms and is retiring once this Congress ends. Sununu has not been on the ballot since losing his 2008 re-election campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) has drawn a Republican opponent. While talk about Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) challenging the Senator has dissipated, state Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Fredericksburg) has now become an official candidate. The state legislator has twice run for a different office — Lieutenant Governor and the US House, but failed both times to secure the party nomination. Sen. Warner will be favored to win a fourth term next year.

House

TX-29 — Former Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson (D) said publicly that he is considering challenging Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) in the new version of the 29th District. Only 37 percent of the current 29th is in the new 29th, so Rep. Garcia’s incumbency factor would be lessened in such a Democratic primary race. The Houston-anchored seat is still solidly Democratic, so the serious action will occur in the March 3 primary.

TX-32 — Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, who in 2023 left the Democratic Party and became a Republican, confirmed he is considering entering the newly created 32nd Congressional District that covers part of Dallas before stretching into east Texas. Current incumbent Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is most likely to seek re-election in the Democratic 33rd CD as opposed to what will become a Republican 32nd District. Before winning election as Mayor, Johnson served four terms in the state House of Representatives as a Democrat. He is ineligible to seek a third term as Mayor in 2027.

Governor

California — A surprising California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) was released during the week providing bad news to Sen. Alex Padilla (D). The Senator is reportedly considering entering the open Governor’s race.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only a 16 percent preference figure. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote, former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (8 percent). Sen. Alex Padilla (D) is next posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator.

Another gubernatorial entry has emerged. Former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (D) announced that he will join the crowded Governor’s primary calling for “a new generation of leadership.” Calderon is 40 years of age. The former four-term Assemblyman’s father, Charles Calderon (D), served in the state Senate and Assembly. He was elected Majority Leader in both chambers during his legislative career.

Minnesota — While Gov. Tim Walz (D) is now officially running for a third term, a new poll suggests he is in a battle for re-election. SurveyUSA, polling for Twin Cities television station KSTP (Sept. 15-18; 568 likely Minnesota voters) finds former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen (R) trailing Gov. Walz by only a 46-41 percent margin.

The poll results also found Gov. Walz with a 47:47 percent job approval rating that features only 20 percent strongly approving and 34 percent strongly disapproving. The Governor and former Vice-Presidential nominee also fares poorly in southern Minnesota, a region he represented in the US House, and with Independents. Thus, the early polling suggests the 2026 Minnesota Governor’s race will be in the competitive realm.

Oklahoma — State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters (R), who has had a controversial tenure but is a champion of the Republican Party’s right flank, announced his resignation to accept a job running a non-profit education organization. He was considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. The move is a boon to Attorney General Gentner Drummond who appears to be the leading GOP candidate for the party nomination. Becoming the Republican standard bearer is tantamount to winning the general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Virginia — A series of three September polls all find former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by spreads beyond the polling margin of error. Pulse Decision Science (Sept. 3-5; 512 likely Virginia voters) posts Spanberger to a 48-43 percent edge. Christopher Newport University (Sept. 8-14; 808 registered Virginia voters) sees the Spanberger lead larger at 52-40 percent. Finally, in the most recently released survey, co/efficient (Set. 22-23; 1,024 likely Virginia voters) finds a result closer to the Pulse Decision study, 49-43 percent, also in Spanberger’s favor.

From the three data organizations that track and average poll results, Real Clear Politics, Decision Desk HQ, and Race to the White House, all see Spanberger leading in an average range falling between 7.3 percentage points (Real Clear Politics) and 9.4 (Race to the White House). The Virginia election is Nov. 4, so political prime time is now fully underway.

Wisconsin — Badger State Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) announced late this week that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.

The move had been expected, and Rep. Tiffany’s chances of winning the Republican primary so far against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien are good. Tiffany’s strong conservative record gives him the inside track in attracting backing from right of center political organizations which have proven important in Republican primaries.

Democrats who have announced their own gubernatorial campaigns are Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not standing for a third term. We can expect to see a toss-up open seat gubernatorial election here next year.

City & State

Boston — After suffering a better than 3:1 negative showing in the September jungle primary, businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, has withdrawn from the Nov. 4 Mayoral general election. This means that Mayor Michelle Wu (D) has won a second term in that she is now unopposed in the regular election.

Rep. Tiffany Announces for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

Governor

Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua)

Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has announced that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.

The Tiffany move opens the state’s northwestern 7th Congressional District, a seat that occupies most of northern Wisconsin’s land area and is dotted with small towns and lakes. WI-7 contains 21 counties and parts of five others.

The district’s largest population hub is the city of Wausau, with a population of just under 40,000 residents. The town of Superior with almost 27,000 inhabitants lies at the southwestern tip of Lake Superior and across the water from Duluth, Minnesota. The vast district then stretches east along Michigan’s Upper Peninsula border before turning south and moving to the outskirts of Chippewa Falls.

The partisan lean for CD-7 is 57.0R – 40.8D. President Trump carried the district in all three of his campaigns and scored a 60.5 – 38.0 percent victory in his latest campaign against Kamala Harris.

There are currently 32 open races when including the recent announced retirements of Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) and Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) in Texas in addition to Tiffany now running for Governor. Recently filling seats in special elections are Democrats James Walkinshaw (D-VA) and Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), the latter just this week from southern Arizona’s 7th District.

Though the number of open seats remains consistent when factoring the retirements and special elections, the political landscape is different. What changes is the partisan complexion.

With the aforementioned latest developments, we now see 19 current Republican-held open seats as compared to just 10 from the Democratic Conference. Three new redistricting created seats in Texas have no incumbents. Two seats, TN-7 and TX-18, remain vacant pending special elections. A total of seven open seats lie in Texas alone.

Wisconsin’s 7th District has a long tradition of electing Republican House members. The lone Democratic exception since the 1892 election — but with a very long tenure — is former Congressman and House Appropriations Committee chairman David Obey who retired after the 2010 election. He was initially elected in a 1969 special election.

The seat reverted to the Republicans in the 2010 election when Sean Duffy, the current US Transportation Secretary, converted the 7th to the GOP column. Duffy resigned before the 2020 election, thus leading to Tiffany succeeding him in the House.

We can expect to see a crowded Republican primary field form that will undoubtedly feature a number of state legislators and county elected officials. It is likely that none of the candidates will begin the campaign with district-wide name identification. Therefore, we can expect a close Republican primary that won’t be settled until Aug. 11.

Democrats will field a credible nominee, but the region’s recent voting history and the favorable Republican draw on the current redistricting map will give the eventual GOP nominee the inside track toward winning the general election and beginning a career in the House of Representatives.

Maine Gov. Mills Poised to Run

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Political reports are coming from the state of Maine saying that Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will soon announce her US Senate candidacy against five-term incumbent Susan Collins (R). Gov. Mills is term-limited and cannot seek re-election for a third consecutive term in the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial election.

The Democrats need to strongly compete in Maine to have any chance of re-capturing the Senate majority, and the party leadership has figuratively put the full-court candidate recruitment press on Gov. Mills during the past several months.

While the party is apparently getting its preferred candidate, there is no guarantee of success. Collins has won five elections in the state, beginning her Senatorial career in 1996 with a victory over ex-Congressman and former Gov. Joe Brennan (D). She would go on to average 57.3 percent of the vote over her five victorious campaigns.

Though Gov. Mills is the Democrats’ candidate of choice, she is not without negatives. First, she would be 79 years old as a freshman Senator. This neutralizes any potential attack against Sen. Collins as a septuagenarian. The incumbent will be 73 years old when people cast their ballots in the 2026 election.

Secondly, though Gov. Mills was re-elected in 2022 with a 55-42 percent margin over former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R), and she averaged 52.5 percent in her two gubernatorial campaigns, her job approval took a dive when she supported a controversial energy transport issue that most believed favored Massachusetts to Maine’s detriment. The ballot measure to support such a policy was handily defeated at the ballot box, which was a major loss for Gov. Mills since she was its champion.

Additionally, polling showed the electorate soundly opposed her nationally publicized position of allowing transgenders to compete in women’s sports.

Sen. Collins’ last re-election battle, the 2020 race against then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), was arguably her most difficult. The Gideon campaign spent more than $60 million against Sen. Collins in addition to $48 million in outside money. This, in a state of just 1.36 million people.

The Gideon campaign was so flush with money that $9 million remained in her campaign account after the election. The candidate explained there was simply no way to spend more since all available media slots were purchased and mail produced and sent, yet hundreds of thousands of dollars continued to arrive online during the campaign’s final days.

Sen. Collins was tabbed for defeat as polling consistently found her running behind Gideon. During the campaign cycle from February to late October, 14 polls were publicly released from eight different pollsters and Sen. Collins trailed in all, according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives. In the 14 polls, the Senator fell behind Gideon by an average of just under five percentage points, yet she won by almost nine.

Therefore, polling must be considered suspect for Maine. Already we see a recent Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 8-9; 642 registered Maine voters; live interview & text) that puts businessman Dan Kelban (D) ahead of Sen. Collins by a 44-35 percent margin. This study should be viewed skeptically since Kelban is largely unknown and the Maine polling history involving Sen. Collins has largely proven inaccurate.

In addition to Gov. Mills likely entering the Senate race, announced Democrats include Kelban, President of the Maine Beer Company located in Freeport, oyster farmer and Iraq and Afghanistan wars veteran Graham Platner, ex-USAID official David Costello, and six minor candidates. It is unclear how many of these will remain in the race once Gov. Mills officially enters the campaign.

Analyzing Maine statewide campaigns is relatively simple. The state has two congressional districts. The 1st, located in southern Maine, is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 53.7D – 40.8R).

The northern 2nd District is largely Republican, though Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has won four elections here. Some of those victories were through Ranked Choice Voting coupled with a very close 50.3 – 49.6 percent margin last November. During the same period, President Trump carried the district in all three of his elections. Each time he earned an extra electoral vote, since Maine is one of two states where the congressional districts carry their own national tally.

The 2nd District stretches from the Lewiston/Auburn area all the way to Canada and is the largest area congressional seat east of the Mississippi River. It is largely regarded as the most Republican CD in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.

Thus, in a statewide race, a Democrat must equal or outperform traditional Democratic totals in the 1st, while a Republican must do similarly in the 2nd and cut the margin of defeat in the 1st, as Sen. Collins did in 2020.

In 2026, former Gov. LePage returns, this time to challenge Rep. Golden. His presence should help Collins maximize the 2nd District Republican vote since the former Governor has handily carried the seat in all three of his races: two victorious gubernatorial efforts and his 2022 losing campaign to Gov. Mills.

Once again, the 2026 election cycle promises to produce another hotly contested US Senate race in the Pine Tree State. Having Gov. Mills as the Democratic candidate is certainly a recruitment victory for the party hierarchy, but convincing the Governor to run is only the first step in what promises to be a long, tough road to victory next year.

Ciattarelli Reverses Tide in NJ;
Grijalva Wins in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

NJ-Governor

Leading 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R)

Defying the consistent trend showing Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), a new internal National Research survey reveals a change in momentum.

According to the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal data, the National Research results (Sept. 16-18; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) project the Republican leading with a slight 46-45 percent edge over Sherrill. Earlier in the month, National Research (Sept. 8-10; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) saw Ciattarelli pulling to within a 47-45 percent margin of his Democratic opponent.

Other September polls, and generally all following the June primary, have posted Sherrill to high single digit leads. The two most recent prior to the latest National Research releases, from Quinnipiac University (Sept. 11-15; 1,238 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview) and Quantus Insights (Sept. 2-4; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) found Rep. Sherrill holding respective leads of 49-41 percent and 47-37 percent.

Organizations that track polling have recorded rather different post-primary averages for the race. The Real Clear Politics Polling Archives finds Rep. Sherrill’s cumulative lead at 8.8 percentage points, while two other stat entities see closer splits. The Race to the White House organization calculates an average 7.5 percent margin, while Decision Desk HQ projects the data result closer to what National Research is finding, giving Sherrill an average 4.2 percent edge.

It does appear that the race is getting tighter as we move toward the Nov. 4 general election. Additionally, Ciattarelli, even in this year’s Republican primary where he scored a 68 percent win, tends to under-poll by a significant margin. In the primary, cumulative research studies found him running nowhere near his final vote total.

For example, the final Emerson College pre-primary poll projected the Ciattarelli preference to be only 44 percent. Here, National Research was closer to the final result, but even their number (54 percent) fell 14 points behind the actual tally.

In the 2021 gubernatorial race where Ciattarelli was viewed as a decided underdog to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) who was seeking re-election, the aggregate polling underestimated the Republican’s strength.

According to the Real Clear Politics archives, six surveys from six different pollsters were released between Oct. 15 and the Nov. 2 election. Gov. Murphy’s average lead was 7.8 percentage points. The actual result was 51-48 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their Oct. 29-31 survey came closest to the final tally, projecting the race at 49-45 percent in the Democratic Governor’s favor.

Over the course of the past campaign, eleven 2021 polls were released from seven different pollsters providing Gov. Murphy with an average lead of 11.5 percent. Therefore, the ‘21 polling trend may prove similar to what we are starting to see in the 2025 Sherrill-Ciattarelli contest.

It appears the stage may be set for another closer-than-expected finish in the New Jersey Governor’s campaign.

AZ-7

As expected, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) easily won last night’s US House special election in Arizona’s Tucson-anchored 7th District and will succeed her late father in Congress. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) passed away in March.

Ms. Grijalva scored what appears to be a 68-30 percent win in a safely Democratic district before a turnout of approximately 102,000 voters. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean for AZ-7, meaning Rep-Elect Grijalva ran slightly ahead of the district’s vote benchmark.

The 7th CD houses part of Tucson and then moves south to the Mexican border before stretching west all the way to California. The district is 55 percent Hispanic and the second strongest Democratic seat in the Grand Canyon State. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here, 60-38 percent.

When Ms. Grijalva is sworn into the House, the partisan division will change to 219R – 214D. The two remaining US House special elections are in Tennessee (7th District; Oct. 7 special primary; Dec. 2 special general) and Texas (18th District; Nov. 4 jungle election; Gov. Greg Abbott (R) schedules the special runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives majority support after the official count projects the need for a secondary election). Republicans are favored to hold in Tennessee, and Democrats in Texas.

AZ-7 Special Today;
California Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

AZ-7

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva after her win in the July 15 special Democratic primary. / Photo by Kelly Presnell

Voters in the Tucson, Arizona area today go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) who passed away in March.

This vote is basically pro forma, as the determinative election was held in the July 15 Democratic primary. The late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who had to resign her seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors to run for Congress, easily won the party nomination.

Ms. Grijalva’s primary conquest virtually guarantees her a win tonight in a seat that carries a partisan lean of 65.5D – 32.3R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations). She will defeat 2024 Republican congressional nominee Daniel Butierez and exceed the 60 percent vote threshold. The Green Party and No Labels Party also qualified nominees, but they will factor little in the final outcome.

The Grijalva victory will bring the US House partisan division total to 219R – 214D. The next special vote will come in Tennessee on Oct. 7. There, both parties will hold contested primaries as the first step to replacing resigned Rep. Mark Green (R). The Tennessee special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The final vacant seat, Texas’ 18th District anchored in Houston, will hold its jungle special election on Nov. 4. Should no one reach majority support, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule a runoff election for the top two finishers.

California

In a report last month, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) was quoted as saying he is considering entering the open California Governor’s race but will make a decision after the special redistricting election to be held Nov. 4.

It appeared that Sen. Padilla, as a sitting statewide incumbent, would soar to the top of early gubernatorial polls that have never projected any candidate even reaching 20 percent support from what promises to be a crowded final field. The first poll that included Sen. Padilla on the contenders’ list produced a surprising result, however.

The latest California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) testing the Governor’s race and the redistricting ballot referendum was released over the weekend.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only 16 percent preference. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote — former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (8 percent). Sen. Padilla is next, posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator in such a crowded field. Following him, at 3 percent support, is former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 12-term Golden State Congressman, Xavier Becerra (D).

Data such as this may prompt Sen. Padilla to have second thoughts about running for Governor. Though he could still certainly mount a winning campaign, his residual political strength is likely less than he initially calculated.

The Emerson poll also tested the special election to pass a redistricting ballot proposition that would bypass the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map and substitute a gerrymandered plan. The new map would ostensibly relegate Republicans to just four of 52 seats in “retaliation,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), to the Texas redistricting plan.

The ballot initiative polled at 51 percent favoring and 34 percent opposing. While the “Yes” vote is well ahead in this early survey, California analysts point out that the “No” position on almost every ballot initiative gains in polling support as the election draws near. Therefore, reaching only 51 percent in the initial test suggests that the margin for error is slim, and securing passage is not a foregone conclusion.

Expect the Golden State Governor’s race, Sen. Padilla’s ultimate decision about running, and the redistricting referendum to draw much more national attention as we move toward the Nov. 4 special election and the California candidate filing deadline slated for March 6, 2026.

Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.