Monthly Archives: August 2025

Utah Joins Redistricting Wars

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 29, 2025

Redistricting

Utah Congressional Districts (click on image to go to interactive map)

A new court decision has thrust another state to the forefront of the mid-decade redistricting battle that may be developing in as many as 11 states.

A Utah judge early this week issued a ruling that strikes down the state’s 4R-0D congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the right to usurp the citizens’ redistricting commission that voters approved via ballot proposition in 2018. The commission members crafted a congressional map in 2021 that the state legislature rejected and replaced with the current plan.

The ruling is curious in that the judge stated the Utah Constitution makes a vote of the people equal to that of a legislative action. Therefore, District Court Judge Dianna Gibson ruled that the legislature did not have the authority to change the Commission map but did not explain why the people’s vote then trumps legislative power if both are equal. Republicans will appeal to the State Supreme Court, though the high court previously allowed the original lawsuit to continue that resulted in Judge Gibson’s ruling.

The Commission map would likely cost the Republicans one seat since it created a Salt Lake City-anchored district that would presumably elect a Democrat. Like many redistricting battles, this one, too, has the potential of making its way to the US Supreme Court for a final decision.

Currently before the federal high court remains the Louisiana racial redistricting case. A ruling was expected before the end of June, but the justices instead postponed their decision and ordered additional oral arguments, now scheduled for Oct. 15. The court’s ultimate ruling could mean a Louisiana redraw before the 2026 election. If so, Alabama could also see a redraw since their redistricting situation is virtually identical to that of Louisiana.

The just-enacted Texas map already faces a racial gerrymandering lawsuit, this in an El Paso federal court. The Louisiana ruling could affect the new Texas map since the lawsuit grounds involve an alleged violation of the Voting Rights Act.

When the Ohio legislature returns to session in September after the summer break, a new congressional map will be drawn. Since the current plan, adopted in 2021, failed to pass the legislature with at least a three-fifths vote in each chamber, the map could only stand for two elections. Therefore, state law demands a new plan be crafted for the 2026 election and beyond.

Published reports indicate that redistricting is also being considered in Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, and New York. The referendum in California to usurp the citizens’ commission map and replace it with a published alternative will go to the voters in a Nov. 4 special election.

The Florida House Speaker has assembled a new redistricting committee, and Gov. Ron DeSantis indicates he favors attempting to draw a new map. Some believe the already strong Republican Florida map could yield two more seats.

Talks are underway in Indiana about undertaking redistricting. The GOP target here would be the state’s 1st District that Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) represents. In the past two elections, the Congressman recorded a pair of 53 percent victories.

Talk surfaced in Maryland, largely stemming from Gov. Wes Moore (D), that this state could attempt to eliminate the lone Republican district, but nothing concrete toward that end has yet happened.

Republicans are also making progress toward gaining the Kansas City-area district of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D); moving forward in this situation appears likely.

Finally, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) also made public statements about redistricting retribution. Here too, however, a citizens’ commission is involved in the process. In 2021, even a Democratic court rejected the Democratic legislature’s map after the members found a way to usurp the commission plan. In the legislature’s map, the Republicans would have been relegated to four of 26 seats, which the court rejected.

While the Democrats could gain further seats in New York, the process of changing the current map may be too complicated to do so before the 2026 election.

As one can see, redistricting is a complex issue, and predicting what may happen next in any state’s process is always a difficult proposition.

Once Again, Ernst Polling Is Close

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025

Senate

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

In her two previous victorious Iowa US Senate races, Republican Joni Ernst defied the aggregate polling universe, and a new Public Policy Polling survey of the 2026 campaign suggests we may see this familiar pattern repeat.

As a whole in both 2014 and 2020, the pollster universe underestimated Ernst’s political strength and miscast her campaigns as being too close to call when they weren’t.

In Sen. Ernst’s first statewide election, running from her position as a state Senator, she defeated then-US Rep. Bruce Braley (D) by more than eight percentage points, or a full six points above her average polling lead according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives.

In her re-election bid from five years ago against Des Moines businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, Sen. Ernst headed into Election Day with just over a one point average edge, again according to the RCP Polling Archives, yet won with close to a seven-point cushion.

The new PPP Iowa poll (Aug. 18-19; 572 registered Iowa voters; live interview and text) finds Sen. Ernst with only toss-up leads over a series of largely unknown, from a statewide perspective, Democratic candidates.

According to the Public Policy Polling results, Sen. Ernst would lead state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), only 43-42 percent; she tops Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, 45-42 percent; and posts a pair of 45-41 percent advantages over local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs).

In reviewing the Polling Archives from her two previous statewide races, we saw Sen. Ernst beginning well behind.

In 2014, against Braley, Sen. Ernst trailed in the first published poll – in July of 2013 and again according to PPP – by a 13 percentage point margin, 45-33. Over the course of the 2014 campaign, 45 statewide surveys were publicly released from 14 different pollsters.

Within the 45 poll universe, Sen. Ernst led in 19, but none among the first nine released surveys (down an average of 7.1 points). In the campaign’s closing stage, her average percentage lead was 2.3 from the six polls released during the Oct. 27 to Nov. 3 period, yet her actual victory margin over Braley was 8.5 percent.

In 2020, this time as the incumbent seeking her first re-election, we saw a similar pattern unfold. In the ’20 race, the Real Clear Polling Archives reports a total of 19 Iowa Senate race polls being released from nine different polling organizations beginning in early April of the election year.

The first released poll again came from PPP with a survey ending on May 1, 2020. It projected Sen. Ernst as having a 43-42 percent edge over Greenfield, the same percentage this new 2025 poll finds her leading opposite state Sen. Wahls.

Within the 19-poll universe that the RCP Polling Archives tracked in the 2020 campaign, Sen. Ernst led in only seven of the polls and trailed by an average of just under three percentage points through the period ending Oct. 24 (a total of 14 released polls). In the final five polls, during the Oct. 27 through Nov. 2 period, Sen. Ernst built an average polling point lead of only 1.4 according to the Archives’ calculations but won the race on Nov. 3 by 6.6 percent.

We saw similar polling underestimates in President Trump’s three Iowa campaigns. In 2016, again with data from the Polling Archives, 26 presidential polls were conducted in the Hawkeye State from Aug. 9, 2015 through Nov. 4, 2016. Within the 26-poll universe, Hillary Clinton led in 10 with four ties. Looking at the final three polls from Nov. 1 through Nov. 4, Trump led in two with an average three-poll lead of three percentage points. On Nov. 8, 2016, he carried Iowa with a 9.5 percent margin spread.

In 2020, though Trump would lose the national election, he again carried Iowa with a greater than predicted margin. In this election, 27 polls were conducted from the period of Feb. 2, 2020 through Nov. 2. The polling universe was better in this election, as they forecast Trump to be leading Joe Biden in 15 of the polls with three ties. In the final five polls from Oct. 27 through Nov. 2, he led in four of the surveys with an average edge of two percentage points. Again, his final margin on Nov. 3 was much larger: 8.5 points.

In 2024, Iowa polling became a point of national contention as the state’s pollster deemed most accurate, Selzer & Company, projected a Kamala Harris lead of three percentage points in a poll concluded on Oct. 31.

President Trump would carry the state on Nov. 5 by a 13.2 percent margin, meaning the Selzer miss was a whopping 16-plus points.

Only three presidential polls were released during the closing days of the Iowa 2024 cycle. The other two pollsters, Emerson College and Insider Advantage, were much closer to the final result (Trump plus-10 and plus-6, respectively), but even they underestimated the Republican strength.

While the early 2025 Public Policy Polling survey again depicts Sen. Ernst in a potentially close race, this is nothing new for her Iowa Senate campaigns. If polling history is any indication, the end result will likely tell a much different story.

Decision Time in Texas

(Click on map above to see full-size detail.)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2025

Redistricting

Now that the new Texas redistricting map has been signed into law displaced Democratic incumbents and potential candidates are deciding where they will run.

In the Dallas area, a game of political musical chairs must be played. All three Texas Democrats who currently represent part of Dallas County no longer live in the district for which they will likely run.

It is probable that Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), whose home is now in Rep. Marc Veasey’s (D-Ft. Worth) 33rd District, will still run in District 30, where almost 69 percent of her current constituency resides. By the same token, Rep. Veasey’s best opportunity is in District 33, but he loses all of his Ft. Worth and Tarrant County base. Only 33 percent of his current constituency lies in the new District 33.

The Dallas Democrat with the least favorable choices is freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas). While 41 percent of her current constituency will reside in new District 32, that district now stretches into East Texas and becomes a Republican seat.

Almost one-third of her constituents move to District 33, but Rep. Johnson says she is looking at potentially challenging Republican Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving) in new District 24. Rep. Johnson sees only three percent of her current constituents landing in TX-24 but says a large portion of her former state House district is included. President Trump carried new CD-24 with a 57-41 percent margin, so Rep. Van Duyne, who finds 87 percent of her current district comprising the new 24th, remains in the driver’s seat for re-election.

Moving to Houston, veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) says he is surveying the new 18th District as a place to run. He would be paired with the winner of the current special election to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), but the latter individual will only have two months to organize a primary campaign against Green after winning the special election.

Rep. Green’s 9th CD transforms into an eastern Harris County Republican seat, while none of his district will move to CD-18. Much of the current Green constituency, almost 44 percent, goes to Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) 29th District, of which Garcia would represent only 37 percent of the new CD. Still, Green would be well known in the 18th, and not having to face another entrenched incumbent should be a favorable setup for the 77-year-old House member who was first elected in 2004.

Looking at Austin, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) says he will not seek re-election rather than squaring off with fellow Democratic Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) in the new 37th CD. Mr. Doggett says he would seek re-election if the court restores the previous map.

In South Texas, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) sees a much different district, but one that he should like. Gone is the San Antonio portion of the current TX-28 seat where Cuellar experienced trouble in two close Democratic primary challenges. He is still under federal indictment with several charges for bribery, obviously a significant hurdle to overcome, while rumors still abound that he may switch parties. If he doesn’t, his likely opponent will be Webb County Judge (Executive) Tino Tijerina, who also hails from Cuellar’s home domain.

A major development affecting the South Texas seats occurred the other day when former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) indicated that she will move back to TX-34 to again challenge Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in a re-match of the 2024 campaign that saw Gonzalez prevailing 51-49 percent. Earlier in the year, Flores said she would challenge Rep. Cuellar in District 28.

In a new 34th that now contains almost 40 percent new territory for Gonzalez and all coming from Rep. Michael Cloud’s (R-Victoria) Republican 27th District, the partisan lean of the newly configured TX-34 will favor a strong GOP candidate.

A lawsuit challenging the new map as a racial gerrymander will quickly be filed in an attempt to void the new districts. This will likely put further pressure upon the Supreme Court to finally rule on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, which has now been scheduled for a second oral argument session on Oct. 15.

If the high court upholds the previous federal three judge panel ruling, then the Texas map will also likely stand and we would see re-draws forced in Louisiana and likely Alabama, which is in an identical situation to that of the Bayou State. In a related ruling, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the Galveston County case that affected the Texas minority districts and was the reason Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) added redistricting to the legislative special session.

With the Lone Star State candidate filing deadline set for Dec. 9 in conjunction with the March 3, 2026, primary election, much will happen in the political and legal arenas during the next few weeks.

Husted, Ramaswamy Lead in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2025

Senate

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Both appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (R) lead in a new statewide Ohio 2026 general election poll, and the data also contain some interesting ancillary results.

Emerson College conducted the new statewide Ohio poll (Aug. 18-19; 1,000 registered Ohio voters; 490 likely OH Republican primary voters; 383 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Husted leading former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), 50-44 percent. This is the first Senate survey released since Brown officially announced that he will make a political comeback.

In the Governor’s contest, Ramaswamy, the endorsed Ohio Republican Party candidate, leads former state Health Director Amy Acton (D) 49-39 percent, and former Congressman and ex-US Senate candidate Tim Ryan (D) 49-41 percent. Last week, Ryan said he would make a decision about entering the Governor’s race by the end of September.

President Trump’s job approval score was 49:42 positive to negative, with unsurprisingly almost all of the Republicans approving and a near unanimous Democratic segment disapproving. As part of the survey, Emerson then tested the personal approval index of nine Buckeye State public figures.

In the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted’s favorability index is 33:28 positive to negative, while former Sen. Brown is better known but has a tighter favorable lean, 44:42.

Interestingly, the only one of the nine tested political personalities to post an upside-down personal rating was first-term Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) at 38:42. On the job approval score, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) also scored in negative territory, 32:40.

The political figure with the lowest unfavorable personal rating (17 percent), is Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel (R), the former Ohio State University head football coach. Tressel still has not completely ruled out running for Governor, but it appears highly unlikely that he will enter the statewide race.

Vice President and former Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R) posted a 48:43 percent favorability index, which also is the highest individual negative score of anyone tested but, again, the split is purely partisan with Republicans overwhelmingly favorable and Democrats viewing him unfavorably in virtually equal proportions.

To underscore the partisanship view, when asking this sample of Ohio Republican voters who they would favor to succeed President Trump in 2028, favorite son Vance was the overpowering choice, 55-9-7-6-4 percent over Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Ohio gubernatorial candidate Ramaswamy, and former UN Ambassador and 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley, respectively.

The Democratic sample was also polled regarding their next presidential preference. On this question it is California Gov. Gavin Newsom who placed first within the Democratic sample of 388 respondents, which is a low number for a state the size of Ohio. Irrespective of the potential sampling flaw, Newsom captured a 20 percent preference figure. Obviously, this is a very low number, but it is still tops among the tested potential candidates.

In what should be considered bad news for ex-US Transportation Secretary and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, he finished behind Newsom with only 15 percent support. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was third with eight percent, followed by a three-way tie with seven percent apiece among Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a two-time presidential candidate, former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, and Minnesota Governor and 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Sen. Sanders, referring to his age (he will be 87 years old during the 2028 campaign), is indicating that he will not run for President again. The Harris-Walz showing is particularly poor for the most recent presidential ticket nominees within a Democratic Party segment cell.

The Iowa Political Hotbed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 25, 2025

Iowa

The Hawkeye State of Iowa will be among the nation’s hottest political domains in the next year, featuring competitive races from the top of the ballot to the bottom. In the past week, we have seen new action occurring in several of the races.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R)

Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has not yet formally announced for re-election, and rumors that she would retire and yield to Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) as the consensus Republican candidate, have dissipated. Sen. Ernst says she will declare her intentions in the fall.

The fact that she has raised $6.7 million during her current term and maintains $3.4 million cash-on-hand is a good indication that she is running.

One person who won’t be in the Senatorial field is state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City). Previously declaring for the Senate, Scholten this week announced that he is dropping his statewide bid and endorsed state Rep. Josh Turek’s (D-Council Bluffs) US Senate effort. Also in the Democratic primary race are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage.

Sen. Ernst will be a strong favorite for re-election, but it is obvious the Democrats are going to make this race a national target.

With Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) retiring, the 2026 Iowa Governor’s race will be an open contest. Five Republicans have announced their intention to run including three-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City). In addition, two sitting state legislators, one former state Representative, and ex-State Administrative Services Director Adam Steen have all formally entered the Republican primary.

The Democrats are fielding four candidates, but all political eyes are on Iowa’s lone Democratic statewide elected official, State Auditor Rob Sand. A likely Feenstra-Sand general election will lead the ballot and promises to become a competitive race. Rep. Feenstra, however, begins the campaign as the favorite.

We will also see competitive action in all four of Iowa’s congressional districts.

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) will face challenges in the Republican primary and general election. Her 56 percent showing in the 2024 GOP primary against an opponent who literally spent no money and winning the general election with just a 799-vote cushion leaves her in vulnerable position. Her 2024 primary opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, is returning for a re-match and promises to raise and spend money in the coming race.

The 2022 and ’24 Democratic nominee, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, returns for a third run. She faces credible Democratic opposition, however, in the person of former state Rep. Bob Krause and attorney Taylor Wettach.

Rep. Hinson just drew a formidable Democratic opponent this week. State Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) formally announced her candidacy and will launch a spirited general election campaign. She faces three announced Democrats in the party primary, none of whom have ever been elected to any office.

After flirting with running for Governor and even moving to the open 4th District, which is a much safer Republican CD than his own, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) will seek re-election in his Des Moines anchored 3rd District. IA-3 is politically marginal (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 49.8R – 47.0D), which guarantees a close finish.

Two strong Democrats, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) and former state House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, are the major contenders. This district’s electorate has unseated two incumbents, one from each party, since 2018.

With Rep. Feenstra leaving the House to run for Governor, the open western 4th District will largely be decided in the Republican primary (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 61.9R – 34.9D). State House Majority Leader Matt Windchitl (R-Harrison County) and Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president Chris McGowan appear to be the leading GOP candidates.

The Iowa primary is scheduled for June 2. The state has a post-nomination election process for races that end with no candidate receiving 35% of the vote. A special party convention is then called for the affected district or state, with delegates choosing the eventual party nominee.

As we can see, all of the state’s most important races will offer a high degree of competition throughout next year. Expect Iowa to draw major national political attention in the coming months.

New Texas Map Passes;
Rep. Chip Roy Running for AG

(Click on map above to see full-size detail.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 22, 2025

Texas

REDISTRICTING — The Texas state House of Representatives, with the Democrats returning to create a quorum, passed the new redistricting map on a party line vote. The bill then moved to the state Senate where passage became pro forma since the body passed the plan in the previous legislative special session. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is expected to sign the new map into law as early as today.

While Republicans believe they can gain five seats in the Texas delegation, the number is largely predicated on winning Hispanic voters in numbers that President Trump similarly attained. Whether the new Trump Hispanic voter returns in a midterm election to vote the Republican line becomes a point of conjecture.

The new Texas map creates three open seats, two of which, one in Houston and the other in the San Antonio area, have large Hispanic populations. To reach their goal of converting five districts, the Republican candidates will have to carry the three open seats:

  • District 9 (Houston)
  • District 32 (Dallas area)
  • District 35 (San Antonio area)

Also, Republicans must defeat Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in South Texas Districts 28 and 34, respectively.

Former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), who lost to Rep. Gonzalez 51-49 percent in November while President Trump was carrying the 34th District in the present configuration (51.8 – 47.4 percent), announced earlier in the year that she would move to District 28 to oppose Rep. Cuellar. Since District 34, now moving northward toward Corpus Christi and losing the McAllen portion of the current CD, becomes more Republican it is unclear if she will go through with the plan to run in CD-28 or return for a second re-match with Rep. Gonzalez in new CD-34.

The new map pairs several Democratic members: Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) and Greg Casar (D-Austin), although Rep. Doggett is saying he will retire if this map stands; likely, Reps. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas) and Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) in a Dallas County 33rd District that would contain neither of their home bases; and Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) with the winner of the TX-18 special election to be held later this year.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) — Rep. Roy, who had been publicly contemplating entering the open Texas Attorney General’s race, yesterday announced his candidacy for that position, thus opening his Central Texas 21st Congressional District for the 2026 election cycle.

Counting the Roy open seat along with the Texas trio of new open CDs, the national US House open seat count would rise to 29 (15R-11D-3 New).

Once the four special elections are filled beginning on Sept. 9 in Virginia with the VA-11 district and concluding with TX-18, which could stretch into January (under Texas election law, the Governor calls a special runoff once it becomes certain that the top finisher will not reach the majority support level in the initial election), the national open-seat count will revert to 25.

In the GOP Attorney General’s primary, Congressman Roy will face state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston), state Sen. Joan Huffman (R-Houston), former Assistant US Attorney General Aaron Reitz, and possibly others. For the Democrats, state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) and former Galveston Mayor and ex-AG candidate Joe Jaworski are the announced contenders.

The new 21st District will be similar but not identical to the seat that Rep. Roy is vacating. The new TX-21 will contain northern Bexar County (San Antonio), move north to capture Comal and part of Hays County which borders Austin, and then travels west into the Texas Hill Country to include the flood-ravaged area around Kerrville when the Guadalupe River overflowed on the 4th of July.

The current CD-21 partisan lean is 61.0R – 36.7D. The new 21st would lose about 30 percent of the territory to other districts but gain a commensurate amount. The new partisan lean, again through the work of the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, would calculate as a similar 60.3R – 38.4D. Therefore, it is highly likely that Rep. Roy’s successor will be the winner of the next Republican nomination campaign.

Arizona Governor:
Rep. Schweikert Considers Bid

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 21, 2025

Governor

eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale)

In a surprising development, eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale) is confirming reports that he is considering entering the 2026 Arizona Governor’s race. Congressman Schweikert says he will make a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate by the end of this month.

The fact that such a story has arisen firmly suggests he is headed toward running. In the statewide Republican primary contest are Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), who is leading in early polling, and Karrin Taylor Robson who ran for Governor in 2022 but failed to overtake Kari Lake for the GOP nomination.

Earlier in the year, President Trump issued a dual endorsement for Rep. Biggs and Robson, but her support was recently withdrawn because the President said she was not using his backing to its fullest benefit.

With Robson likely stagnating, Rep. Schweikert may see the opportunity of overtaking
Biggs in a GOP primary race that won’t be decided until Aug. 4 of next year. The eventual Republican nominee will be highly competitive against Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) who defeated Lake by a scant 50.3 – 49.6 percent count in 2022.

The bigger national story, should Rep. Schweikert become a gubernatorial candidate, would be the battle for his open 1st Congressional District.

The 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members didn’t do Rep. Schweikert any favors because they transformed his once safely Republican 6th District into a highly competitive 1st CD. Schweikert being convicted of 11 House ethics violations for misuse of his congressional office funds and the Federal Election Commission issuing a $175,000 fine for multiple campaign finance violations certainly didn’t help him win re-election, either.

In the last two elections, Rep. Schweikert, battling negative publicity relating to the ethics abuses and fines, recorded winning percentages of 50.4 and 51.9 percent in 2022 and 2024, respectively. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 50.9R – 47.5D district partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank AZ-1 as the 18th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

In the 2024 presidential race, Trump defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris here 51.9 – 48.0 percent. In 2020, however, President Biden carried the seat over Trump, 50.1 – 48.6 percent. The 1st District margin was one of the reasons the national Democrat carried Arizona, which became a major cog in the Biden victory over then-President Trump.

The Grand Canyon State’s 1st CD is fully contained within Maricopa County and anchored in the city of Scottsdale. The seat also includes Rep. Schweikert’s hometown of Fountain Hills and the cities of Paradise Valley and Carefree. The voting age population is 74 percent white, 14 percent Hispanic, 5.5 percent Asian, and 4 percent black.

The most recent district voter registration totals (July 1, 2025) reveal 207,076 Republicans (38.4 percent), 179,128 (33.2 percent) non-affiliated voters, 144,592 Democrats (26.8 percent), and 8,608 (1.6 percent) minor party members for a total of 539,404 registrants. The election statistics revealing much closer results than the voter registration figures seem to project indicates that the non-affiliated group votes predominantly Democratic. Therefore, the GOP’s registration advantage is less than one observes at first glance.

Should Rep. Schweikert opt for the Governor’s race, we can expect a crowded Republican congressional primary to develop.

The Democrats are already seeing spirited competition in their primary as 11 party members have announced their candidacies, including former state Representative, physician, and 2024 congressional nominee Amish Shah, 2024 congressional candidate and former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio, Tempe School Board member Andres Barraza, and Democratic National Committee member Mark Robert Gordon.

The AZ-1 campaign was already promising to be one of the most competitive US House races in the 2026 cycle and a major factor in deciding which party will control the chamber in the 2027-28 congressional session. As an open seat contest, this district will attract even more national political attention once the race intensifies.