Daily Archives: November 3, 2020

A Full Congressional Race Recap

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 3, 2020 — Below is a rundown on the key campaigns today and which seats may flip. The Senate races are close with both parties having a chance to claim the majority. The House looks to stay under Democratic control with the main question being whether they expand their majority or Republicans can diminish the majority’s 17-seat margin. Here’s how things line up today:


SENATE

Potential Democrat to Republican Flips:

• Alabama – Tommy Tuberville positioned to win
• Michigan• John James close in some polls; outside chance for upset
• Minnesota• Jason Lewis with long-shot chance to defeat Sen. Tina Smith


Potential Republican to Democrat Flips:

• Arizona – Though closing, Martha McSally will likely come up short against Mark Kelly
• Colorado – Sen. Gardner appears headed for a loss
• Georgia-A – Sen. Perdue polling is slipping; could lose or be forced to a runoff
• Maine – Sen. Collins rebounded but Ranked Choice Voting could defeat her if race leader is under 50 percent


Toss-Up to Leaning Republican

• Alaska – Sen. Sullivan sees polling now going his way; typical Alaska pattern
• Georgia-B – Rev. Warnock finishes first but forced to run-off; tight between Sen. Loeffler and Rep. Collins for second position; runoff is Jan 5
• Iowa – Sen. Ernst’s numbers improving; small lead; momentum is her way
• Kansas – Rep. Marshall should prevail, but margin may be small
• Kentucky – Sen. McConnell wins
• Montana – Sen. Daines with slight advantage; R turnout model should help save him
• North Carolina – Tight, but Sen. Tillis has the momentum; Cunningham hurt by scandal; GOP early vote numbers better than 2016
• South Carolina – Sen. Graham looks to score close win despite massive spending against him
• Texas – Sen. Cornyn clear favorite, but win percentage may be down; early vote a plus for GOP


HOUSE

• Alabama – no change in delegation
• Alaska – Rep. Young up in polling late; should prevail
• Arizona – Rep. O’Halleran wins Rep. Schweikert in clear danger of losing
• Arkansas – no change in delegation
• California – Reps. LaMalfa and McClintock have competitive opponents but should win
            – Assemblyman Jay Obernolte holds open 8th CD for Republicans
            – Ex-Rep. Valadao in strong position to re-claim the seat he lost in 2018.
            – Rep. Cisneros wins another close race against GOPer Young Kim Rep. Rouda prevails against Supervisor Michelle Steel (R)
            – Former Rep. Darrell Issa returns winning District 50
            – Ex-State Dept official Sara Jacobs wins double-Dem general in CA-53
• Colorado – Lauren Boebert in close general after ousting Rep. Tipton in R primary; 2nd Amendment key issue and might be difference in her winning
• Connecticut – no change in delegation
• Delaware – no change in delegation
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