Monthly Archives: April 2019

Swalwell In; Sanders Up in Bay State

By Jim Ellis

California Rep. Eric Swalwell (D)

April 10, 2019 — California Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin/Hayward), who for many months has been indicating that he would run for president, finally announced his intentions Tuesday and becomes the 18th Democratic candidate.

Swalwell, who will likely be a minor candidate throughout the process, has said he will not run for both president and the US House simultaneously. Therefore, expect him to depart the presidential race well in advance of the California congressional candidate filing deadline on Dec. 6.

The Golden State will now hold its presidential and state primary on March 3, since the legislature and governor changed the schedule in order to provide them more influence in the presidential nomination process. But Swalwell will have to decide well in advance of the first national votes being cast as to whether he wants to relinquish a safe US House seat in order to continue in what will likely be a long shot presidential effort with little realistic hope of success.

Emerson College released a new Massachusetts poll (April 4-7; 371 likely Democratic Massachusetts primary voters) that projects Sen. Bernie Sanders overtaking former Vice President Joe Biden and finding home state Sen. Elizabeth Warren running a distant third.

According to the Emerson results, Sen. Sanders leads 26-23-14-11 percent over ex-VP Biden, Sen. Warren, and South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg. All others, including Texas former congressman, Beto O’Rourke, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), record only single-digit support.

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Coach Declares for Senate

By Jim Ellis

Former Auburn Football coach Tommy Tuberville (center)

April 9, 2019 — Rumors have been flying for some time that former NCAA Football coach Tommy Tuberville was looking forward to a run for public office, and now the speculation has come to fruition.

Tuberville officially announced his candidacy for the Alabama US Senate Republican nomination over the weekend. He coached the Auburn University Tigers from the 1999 through 2008 football seasons, won Coach of the Year honors in 2004 and 68 percent of his games while at the Alabama university.

The new Senate candidate released a statement through Twitter this past Saturday saying, “after more than a year of listening to Alabama’s citizens, I have heard your concerns and hopes for a better tomorrow. I am humbled to announce the next step — I will be a GOP candidate for US Senate. I invite you to join my team.”

As often stated in our Updates, the Alabama Senate race is the most important contest on the Republican target board. Increasing their 53-seat majority to 54 in defeating Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, in what should be one of the safest Republican states, is a must for the GOP and would provide them an important cushion for their majority margin.

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Ohio Rep. Ryan Makes it #17 for Dems

By Jim Ellis

Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan announces his candidacy for the 2020 Presidential Election on the TV talk show, “The View.”

April 8, 2019 — Calling himself a “reform-minded Democrat” who is “for the free enterprise system,” and a “progressive who knows how to talk to working-class people,” Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Youngstown) announced his presidential campaign at the end of last week.

Rep. Ryan becomes the 17th official presidential candidate, but he will not necessarily be leaving the House if he loses his long shot national bid. Under Ohio election law, individuals may simultaneously run for more than one office and the congressman says he will also file for re-election.

More announcements are expected in April. As we have recently seen, it appears former Vice President Joe Biden will soon enter the race, as will at least one and possibly a second House member. California Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin/Hayward) will reportedly announce his presidential campaign next week, an effort he has been discussing for more than a year.

Swalwell is saying he won’t run for both offices as is Rep. Ryan, but he does leave himself a path to return to the House. Rep. Swalwell indicates that if his presidential effort isn’t proceeding as planned when the California candidate filing deadline approaches, he could end his national campaign and then file for re-election.

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Analyzing Tuesday’s Elections

By Jim Ellis

Chicago Mayor-Elect Lori Lightfoot (D)

April 5, 2019 — This Tuesday, elections were held in several jurisdictions with very mixed results. Democratic Socialists won big in the Chicago municipal elections; the Republicans scored an apparent upset in the Wisconsin state Supreme Court campaign; a former Democratic congressman failed in his bid to join the Las Vegas City Council by literally five votes; and Democrats converted a politically marginal Republican state Senate seat in Pennsylvania.

In the Chicago Mayor’s race, as expected, former federal prosecutor Lori Lightfoot (D) easily beat Toni Preckwinkle (D), the President of the Cook County Board of Commissioners whose campaign seemed to collapse in the runoff over tangentially being involved in a Chicago City Council bribery situation, using government resources for campaign purposes, and sexual harassment allegations levied against one of her county staff members. Lightfoot, who becomes the first black female and openly gay individual to become Chicago’s mayor, captured just over 73 percent of the vote.

But, perhaps the more significant story, is the election of five Democratic Socialists of America party members to the Chicago City Council. One upstart (as described on Fox News) Andre Vasquez, defeated Alderman Patrick O’Connor, a leader for Mayor Rahm Emanuel and the City Council’s Finance Committee chairman.

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New Poll: Biden Still Holds First

By Jim Ellis

Former vice president and ex-Delaware senator Joe Biden

April 4, 2019 — Former Vice President Joe Biden has been under attack in recent days over past inappropriate behavior around women but, so far, it hasn’t yet damaged his standing with Democratic primary voters according to the latest monthly Morning Consult poll (March 25-29; 12,940 US likely Democratic primary or caucus voters).

While Biden has been hit with a series of negative articles and television news reports, which may be only the beginning of political assaults as the other candidates need to dislodge the former vice president from the front runner position, he still stands atop the Democratic field with his best showing from any recent poll.

According to the Morning Consult data, Biden has open up a 33-25-8-8 percent advantage over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), and ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), respectively. The 33 percent figure is the single-best number that Biden has attracted from any poll during his pre-announcement period.

For his part, Sen. Sanders continues to command a strong-second place position, while Harris drops back a bit from her 10 percent showing in the March 10 Morning Consult track. Her high point from any MC survey came in early February when she touched 14 percent. O’Rourke continues to hover consistently around his eight percent mark, always placing either in third or fourth position.

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The Early Targets

By Jim Ellis

April 3, 2019 — Continuing our early outlook of the 2020 House situation, we can begin by narrowing the field to those districts where Republicans will be concentrating at least their initial efforts in order to reclaim the majority they lost in November.

After the 2016 election, there were 12 districts that supported President Trump but elected a Democrat to the House. After the 2018 midterm, that number rose to 31. For the Republicans to regain the majority, they will need to convert a net 18 seats back to their column, or 19 if the Democrats score a victory in the NC-9 special election to be held later this year in the Charlotte-Fayetteville metro areas in southern North Carolina.

The other two House special elections, PA-12 (May 21) and NC-3 (Sept. 10), unless huge upsets occur, look to remain within the Republican stable of districts.

Of the 31 Trump/House Democrat seats, 16 of them also voted for Mitt Romney over President Obama in 2012. Furthermore, a dozen within this group elected a Republican Representative until the 2018 election. They are:

  • GA-6 – Rep. Lucy McBath (D) – Defeated Karen Handel (R)
  • IL-14 – Rep. Lauren Underwood (D) – Defeated Randy Hultgren (R)
  • MI-8 – Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) – Defeated Mike Bishop (R)
  • MI-11 – Rep. Haley Stevens (D) – Replaced David Trott (R)
  • NJ-11 – Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) – Replaced Rodney Frelinghuysen
  • NM-2 – Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) – Replaced Steve Pearce (R)
  • NY-22 – Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) – Defeated Claudia Tenney (R)
  • OK-5 – Rep. Kendra Horn (D) – Defeated Steve Russell (R)
  • SC-1 – Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) – Replaced Mark Sanford (R)
  • UT-4 – Rep. Ben McAdams (D) – Defeated Mia Love (R)
  • VA-2 – Rep. Elaine Luria (D) – Defeated Scott Taylor (R)
  • VA-7 – Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) – Defeated Dave Brat (R)

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House Activity Percolates With Open Seats in 2020: Here’s an Overview

By Jim Ellis

April 2, 2019 — Last week we spent a great deal of time analyzing the 2020 Senate races, and now we begin to take a look at some of the expected US House activity.

With Republicans now fighting to regain the majority they lost in November, are there enough opportunities for them to convert the 18 or 19 (depending upon the NC-9 special election result) districts that they will need to reclaim the House?

After the November vote, we see 31 seats that President Trump carried in 2016, which a Democrat now represents. That number rose from 12 before the election. These districts will form the basis of the Republican target list, but it doesn’t appear they will have enough open seats to augment their conversion inroad opportunities. And, as has been the case in the previous four elections, Republicans are already risking many more of these latter seats than Democrats.

Generally, a feature of the House flipping is the winning party converting a sizable number of open seats. That certainly happened in 2018 as we again saw an unusually large number of incumbent-less campaigns (64), with 16 of them going to the opposite party (13 R to D; 3 D to R). Since the congressional seats were re-drawn before the 2012 election, a total of 64 (2012), 47 (2014), and 49 (2016) districts were open, in addition to the aforementioned 64 for the last cycle.

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