Monthly Archives: March 2014

The Rogers Seat: Will the GOP Hang On?

House Intelligence Committee chairman Mike Rogers’ surprise retirement announcement is igniting a political scramble in south-central Michigan. The open 8th District in Michigan should remain in Republican hands, but if Democrats can create a political wave in either the governor or Senate race that translates into a turnout driver, then witnessing a competitive open seat campaign here becomes probable.

Rogers who, at the beginning of the election cycle, was widely discussed as the Republicans’ best potential open seat senatorial candidate but instead decided to remain in the House, is moving into broadcast media. At the beginning of next year, he will host his own radio program on the Atlanta-based Cumulus Media network.

The 2011 redistricting plan crafted the 8th as a marginal Republican district but it is much more secure for the party in Rogers’ hands, who for years has proven himself to  Continue reading >

Realignment of the Senior Citizen Voting Block

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In a report issued earlier this week, the Gallup organization, which has been charting partisan affiliation by age since 1992, detected clear voter behavior shifts. Among senior citizens, defined as those in the aged 65 and older group, a plurality is now aligned with the Republican Party. According to Gallup, 48 percent of this  Continue reading >

Does Libertarian Bob Barr Have a Chance in Georgia?

The race to replace US Senate candidate Phil Gingrey (R) in Georgia’s 11th Congressional District, which includes the city of Marietta, half of Cobb County, and all of Cherokee and Bartow counties, has been quiet so far, but a new poll suggests things will heat up substantially before the May 20 primary.

State Sen. Barry Loudermilk (R) just released an internal Conquest Communications survey (March 20-24; 600 likely GA-11 Republican primary voters) that projects the poll sponsor and former Rep. Bob Barr (R) to be in a tight contest at the top of a crowded field of candidates. According to the Loudermilk data, the two are tied with 12 percent support. Businesswoman Tricia Pridemore, a former Gov. Nathan Deal (R) appointee, trails with four percent, and state House Majority Whip Ed Lindsay records three percent. Two minor candidates follow.

With less than eight weeks remaining in this primary campaign, the candidates will begin to make their moves. In a multi-candidate  Continue reading >

New Mexico Numbers Show Udall, Martinez Strong,

While most of the recent western political attention has focused on Colorado Sen. Mark Udall (D) – the air wars with Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO-4) and their respective allies have already begun in earnest – little attention is being paid to his cousin, Sen. Tom Udall (D), from the square state directly to the south.

As an incumbent senator in 2014, not receiving any political attention is a good thing. The just-released Public Policy Polling survey (March 20-23; 674 registered New Mexico voters; 327 Democratic primary voters), the first such published New Mexico poll for this election cycle, proves that point for Sen. Udall, but not necessarily for the Democratic gubernatorial candidates.

According to this new data, the senator maintains a very comfortable lead over both of his Republican challengers, former New Mexico GOP chairman Allen Weh, and local Dona Ana Republican Party ex-chair David Clements. With a very strong 52:33 percent  Continue reading >

Alaska: The First Frontier

Alaska’s actual nickname may be “The Last Frontier” but, in terms of recent political activity, the state is streaking to first place. As you have read in recent previous columns, the early ads coming from outside groups and the major candidates are attempting to cement candidate impressions for the long term. Sen. Mark Begich (D) has been unusually active on the airwaves for an incumbent with an election still eight months away, and now we may have uncovered why.

Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released a new survey (March 19-20; 750 registered Alaska voters) that shows the incumbent leading only one of the three Republican candidates vying for a shot at opposing him in the general election. Sen. Begich is tied with the contender who seems to be gathering the most inside and outside momentum for the GOP, and surprisingly trails another whose campaign is in the middle of a major shake-up. The only candidate trailing the incumbent is the 2010 Republican nominee who ended up losing the general election to a write-in effort.
 Continue reading >