Tag Archives: Rep. Jo Bonner

Another Swing in Politically Volatile NH?

Since 2006, the state of New Hampshire has been the most politically volatile entity in the entire country. The swings in voter sentiment have been so severe that, since 2006 inclusive, more incumbent US House members have actually been defeated in this state than re-elected. The instability could again be present in the 2014 mid-term election, as the turnout model will return to lower participation territory, possibly creating a similar dynamic that led to a Republican sweep in 2010.

Hoping to make the latter statement a reality is former Rep. Frank Guinta (R-NH-1), who defeated then-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1) in 2010, but subsequently lost to her in a re-match during his first re-election attempt last year. For her part, Shea-Porter defeated then-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH-1) in 2006, was re-elected in ’08, and lost to Guinta in 2010 before winning her comeback attempt.

Yesterday, Guinta officially announced that he will strive to come back in 2014. The move is not a surprise. He has been counted among several 2012 candidates or defeated incumbents who are potential re-match challengers. His path to the nomination isn’t clear, however. University of New Hampshire business school dean Dan Innis, who is referred to as a “gay married man” in certain local press articles, is leaning heavily toward running for the seat. Guinta in 2010, sitting as the mayor of Manchester, which is the state’s and 1st CD’s largest city, came to office in the Tea Party wave. So, if both men do in fact enter the primary race, the campaign should be lively assuming Innis can attract the necessary funds to run competitively.

The 1st District occupies the central and eastern regions of New Hampshire and is the more conservative of the two seats. Rep. Shea-Porter has scored 51, 52, 42, and 50 percent in her four House elections. Clearly, never topping 52 percent during her entire electoral career makes her highly vulnerable in the ensuing election.

AL-1 Primary Election Today

As reported yesterday, tonight the votes will be counted in Alabama’s special primary election to fill the vacancy for resigned Rep. Jo Bonner’s (R) seat. He left the House in August.

All the action will be on the Republican side, as the eventual GOP nominee will be the  Continue reading >

AL-1: September Election

Alabama Congressional Districts

Alabama Congressional Districts

Another special election is fast coming upon us. Alabama Rep. Jo Bonner’s (R) resignation from the House means a special primary on Sept. 24. The underdog Democrats filed two candidates, so the party will select a nominee in the first vote. The two contenders are former state Representative candidate Burton LeFlore and retiree Lula Albert-Kaigler.

The Republican side is a much different affair. With nine candidates on the ballot, a Nov. 5 run-off is a virtual certainty. The special general election is scheduled for Dec. 16. If neither party requires a secondary election, the special general will move to Nov. 5.

Former state Sen. Bradley Byrne actually placed first in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary, outpacing the eventual winner, Robert Bentley, and Tim James, the son of former Gov. Fob James (Democrat to Republican).

Byrne scored 28 percent of the Republican primary vote against Bentley and James, who both scored in the 25 percent range. Bentley edged James by just a tenth of a percentage point. Judge Roy Moore, who came to notoriety for his insistence of displaying the Ten Commandments in the courthouse, was fourth.

In the run-off, Byrne fell to Bentley 44-56 percent, indicating the strength of the Republican Party’s conservative wing. Byrne, viewed as the establishment candidate, came through a crowded primary but quickly became the underdog in a head-to-head race. Bentley went on to easily  Continue reading >

Candidate Developments

Alabama

With resigning Rep. Jo Bonner (R-AL-1) leaving office this Friday, Gov. Robert Bentley (R) announced the schedule for the upcoming replacement special election. With 11 candidates already running, eight of whom are Republicans, the governor has designated Monday, Aug. 5 as the candidate filing deadline. The party primaries will occur on Sept. 24, with run-offs, if necessary, to be held Nov. 5. The special general will then be Dec. 17.

In the unlikely occurrence of candidates from both parties securing a majority of the vote on Sept. 24, and thus clinching their respective nominations, the general election will then move to the Nov. 5 date. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored.

Arkansas

Key political insiders believe that Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) will announce a challenge to Sen. Mark Pryor (D) later this week. Cotton, a freshman, has been considered a potential Pryor opponent almost the day after he was elected to the House, and now his move looks to become official.

The Arkansas Senate seat will likely fall into the highly competitive category, and this should be one of the most important statewide campaigns during the entire election cycle. It is clearly one of the seats that will determine the Senate majority for the next Congress.

Former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who forced then-Sen. Blanche Lincoln into a divisive Democratic primary that added to her political woes in 2010, thus leading to her eventual 57-36 percent defeat at the hands of then-Rep. John Boozman (R), has decided not to pursue another statewide Democratic primary battle. Originally announced as a 2014 open seat gubernatorial candidate, Halter announced this week that he is withdrawing from the contest. The action gives former Rep. Mike Ross (D-AR-4) a clear shot for the Democratic nomination that means a virtual sure general election contest with former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR-3). Early polling had given Ross a large lead over Halter, which clearly played into the ex-lieutentant governor’s withdrawal decision.

Illinois

Beginning with the end of World War II until January of this very year, the southwestern Illinois seat anchored in East St. Louis had been represented by only two men: representatives Mel Price (D; 1945-1988) and Jerry Costello (D; 1988-2013). Now, freshman Rep. Bill Enyart (D-IL-12), who won a 52-43 percent victory over former lieutenant governor nominee Jason Plummer (R), has already drawn a significant challenger for his first re-election.
 Continue reading >

House Re-Set

Completing our two-part series examining the congressional political picture (the July 8 Political Update covered the Senate outlook), today we look at the House.

Currently, 234 Republicans and 201 Democrats comprise the body’s membership. Three seats are slated to soon become vacant: Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) will be sworn into the Senate upon official certification of his late June special election victory; Rep. Jo Bonner (R-AL-1) announced his resignation effective in mid-August to accept a position at the University of Alabama; and Rep. Mel Watt (D-NC-12), should he be confirmed, will become the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency thus leaving the House at an undetermined date.

In contrast to the 2012 cycle when 62 seats were open, at this point only 14 members have announced their retirements, accepted new positions, or are running for a different office. Three others: representatives Robin Kelly (D-IL-2), Mark Sanford (R-SC-1), and Jason Smith (R-MO-8), have won special elections since the current 113th Congress began making a grand total of 17 seats that have opened, or will open, since the 2012 general election. Of the fourteen currently projected open seats, eight are Republican held and six Democratic.

Toss-Ups

Attributable to a tight national redistricting model, only eight seats are now in this column. Six of those belong to Democrats (representatives Ron Barber (AZ-2), Scott Peters [CA-52), Patrick Murphy (FL-18), Joe Garcia (FL-26), Mike McIntyre (NC-7), and Jim Matheson (UT-4)], while only two are Republican-held [representatives Gary Miller (CA-31) and Mike Coffman (CO-6)]. Therefore, the GOP is in a slightly better position to gain a small number of seats.

The Leans

Both parties have just about an equal number of “lean” seats. Majority Republicans have 18 of their members or open seats rated as Lean Republican, while  Continue reading >