Tag Archives: Ohio Redistricting

Ohio Redistricts

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version on Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

Redistricting

Ohio’s unique redistricting process ended as quickly as it began.

The Buckeye State’s seven-member redistricting commission, which is comprised of elected officials from both parties and includes Gov. Mike DeWine (R), unanimously passed a new congressional map. The act of the commissioners reaching a bipartisan consensus vote means the map becomes law and does not go to the legislature for approval. The plan will now stand for the remainder of the decade.

Ohio voters previously adopted changes to the redistricting process that created the state’s unusual elected officials commission (other commission states typically have citizen members), which involves the legislature if the bipartisan panel cannot unanimously agree.

If the commissioners reached an impasse, the plan would advance to the legislature where a three-fifths vote of each house would be required to enact a map for the entire decade. Passing a plan with majority support, but short of a three-fifths tally, means the district configuration could only stand for two elections. Such was the case with the 2021 congressional map; hence, the legal requirement to redraw the current plan for the decade’s succeeding elections.

Ohio becomes the fourth state to complete its redistricting process joining Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina. California will soon follow suit since their ballot referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map passed in today’s election.

The new Ohio plan heavily targets veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) who, first elected in 1982, is the longest serving female in congressional history. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Kaptur’s new 9th District becomes a net 10.7 points more Republican.

The 2021 map, which was used in 2022 and 2024, carried an OH-9 partisan lean of 48.8D – 48.6R. In 2024, Rep. Kaptur’s victory margin was just 48.3 – 47.6 percent over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). According to the Down Ballot political blog reporters, President Trump would have carried new District by a 55-44 percent clip.

The new partisan lean will be 54.8R – 44.2D, and state Senate President Rob McColley (R-Napoleon), whose residence has been added to the 9th District, is potentially waiting in the wings to initiate a congressional challenge.

The original GOP objective included making the state’s 13th District, that of Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron), more Republican. In her two congressional elections, she has averaged 51.9 percent of the vote. As a result of the partisan commission members’ compromise offering, Rep. Sykes’ district actually became just under a half-point more Democratic according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Therefore, the new District 13 partisan lean is 51.2D – 47.2R.

Kamala Harris would have carried the new CD-13 with a 51-48 percent margin. In the previous version, her victory over President Trump equaled just 183 votes, making it the tightest congressional district in the country for the 2024 presidential election.

Former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), who held Rep. Sykes to her close 2024 re-election victory and was planning to run again, says he would have no victory path in the district’s new version. As a result, Coughlin announced that he will not return for a rematch.

While District 13 became slightly more Democratic under the new draw, the Cincinnati-anchored District 1 now flips from Harris to Trump. Instead of Rep. Sykes being a main GOP target, it is two-term Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) who will draw the difficult path to re-election in 2026.

According to Down Ballot, the 1st District 2024 presidential numbers flip from what was 53-46 percent Harris to 51-48 percent Trump. The DRA partisan lean spins from 49.9D – 47.9R to 50.8R – 48.2D, meaning the political advantage almost symmetrically turns.

While the Republicans hoped to pass a map that would have given them an extra two seats in the Ohio delegation (the current partisan split is 10R-5D), they now see one district likely coming their way with two other Democratic seats moving toward the competitive category.

Overall, of the 15 Ohio districts, only two become more Democratic, Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus) seat, and that of western Republican Congressman Warren Davidson (R-Troy). The remaining 13 CDs all swing slightly more Republican.

Questions arose as to why the Democratic commission members would agree to the compromise map. The members responded saying they believe this plan was their best option, arguing the legislature would have drawn an even more partisan map. Conversely, some Republicans are attacking the GOP commission members for not pushing the map into the legislature.

Expect the political jockeying for position within the new congressional districts to immediately begin now that the campaign playing field is set.

Former NASCAR Driver Declares in Maine; Ohio Redistricting Lines Stand; New Candidates in CO-8 & VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 11, 2023

House

Austin Theriault (R), retired NASCAR driver

ME-2: Former NASCAR Driver Declares for Congress — Austin Theriault (R), a retired NASCAR driver who is now a state representative from one of the Canadian border districts in northern Maine, is reportedly planning to challenge Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in the most Republican district that elects a Democrat to the House. Rep. Golden has twice defeated now-former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) with the help of the Ranked Choice Voting system, which eliminates the possibility of a plurality victory.

Without Poliquin making a return appearance, Republicans need a fresh candidate to potentially take advantage of what could be a more favorable GOP turnout model. Former President Donald Trump has twice carried the 2nd District, in 2020 by six percentage points, so running with him in 2024 is more attractive than in other election years.

Ohio Redistricting: Lines Will Stand for 2024 — The Ohio State Supreme Court late this week rejected plaintiffs’ arguments that a new congressional map should be drawn, meaning the current lines will remain intact for the 2024 election. Under the original redistricting act’s passage, the map was to be reconfigured after four years, meaning before the 2026 election. That remains to be the case. In the meantime, activists are attempting to qualify a ballot initiative that would transform the Ohio redistricting system into a citizens’ commission. The initiative organizers need 413,000 valid Ohio registered voter signatures to qualify their measure for a vote in the 2024 election.

CO-8: GOP State Rep Announces Candidacy — State Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Westminster), an Army veteran and ex-police officer, has entered the 8th District Republican congressional primary with the quest of challenging freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) who represents one of the most politically marginal districts in the country. The 8th District was awarded to Colorado in the 2020 national apportionment formula due to extensive population growth.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission crafted the seat, just north of Denver, as one that either party can win in any election year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a partisan lean that slightly favors the Democrats, 48.3D – 47.0R. President Joe Biden carried the district, 50.8 – 46.3 percent.

Rep. Evans, should he win the primary, will be a strong candidate for the Republicans. State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County), who held Rep. Caraveo to a 48.4 – 47.7 percent tight victory, is not seeking a re-match. Instead, she is running for re-election to her current position in the state Senate. Weld County Commissioner Scott James will be opposing Evans for the Republican nomination.

VA-2: Democrats Recruit Challenger Candidate — In further evidence that defeated Rep. Elaine Luria (D) will not seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), Democrats have found a new candidate in the person of Missy Cotter Smasal, a Navy veteran and former state Senate candidate. At this point, she is the only announced Democratic contender and has support from former Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and newly elected US Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond).

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the Virginia Beach anchored 2nd District as R+6. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 50.1R – 48.3D.

WI-3: Former Local Board Chairman Enters Cong Race — Former La Crosse County Board chair Tara Johnson, who served 20 years on the local panel, announced that she is joining the Democratic primary in hope of challenging freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) in next year’s general election.

The race is getting more attention from Democrats who believe southern Wisconsin will be redrawn with their presumption that the new state Supreme Court Democratic majority will find a way to toss the current map. Johnson joins business owner and 2022 congressional candidate Rebecca Cooke in the Democratic primary. The seat appears relatively safe for Rep. Van Orden in its current configuration, but a redraw could drastically change the situation.