By Jim Ellis
Oct. 29, 2018 — The 2018 election cycle features 36 gubernatorial campaigns, 26 of which have federal redistricting ramifications. The ones that don’t are at-large congressional district states (Alaska, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming) or will be after the next reapportionment (Rhode Island), those that employ redistricting commissions (Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho), or the multi-district state where the governor is only awarded a two-year term (New Hampshire).
Here is a breakdown of where things stand in the upcoming election in the 26 states where the governor will have redistricting veto power:
PURE TOSS UPS
FLORIDA: Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) vs. Ex-US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R)
• Most Recent Polls: Gravis Marketing (Oct. 22-23): Gillum 51 percent, DeSantis 46 percent
Gray/Strategic Research (Oct. 16-23): DeSantis 48 percent; Gillum 45 percent
GEORGIA: Sec/State Brian Kemp (R) vs. Ex-state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)
• Most Recent Poll: NBC News/Marist (Oct. 14-18): Kemp 49 percent; Abrams 47 percent
IOWA: Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Businessman Fred Hubbell (D)
• Most Recent Poll: Selzer & Co (Sept. 17-20): Hubbell 43 percent; Reynolds 41 percent
KANSAS: Sec of State Kris Kobach (R) vs. State Rep. Laura Kelly (D) & Greg Orman (I)
• Recent Poll: Public Policy Polling (Oct. 19-20): Kobach 41 percent; Kelly 41 percent; Orman 10 percent
NEVADA: Attorney Gen Adam Laxalt (R) vs. Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D)
• Most Recent Poll: Emerson College (Oct. 10-12): Laxalt 46 percent; Sisolak 41 percent
OHIO: Attorney Gen Mike DeWine (R) vs. Ex-Atty Gen Richard Cordray (D)
• Most Recent Poll: Suffolk University (Oct. 4-8): Cordray 46 percent; DeWine 40 percent
WISCONSIN: Gov. Scott Walker (R) vs. Superintendent Tony Evers (D)
• Most Recent Polls: Ipsos Reuters (Oct. 12-18): Evers 48 percent; Walker 45 percent
Marquette Law School (Oct. 3-7) Walker 47 percent; Evers 46 percent
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
COLORADO: US Rep. Jared Polis (D) vs. State Treas Walker Stapleton (R)
• Most Recent Poll: Univ CO/YouGov (Oct. 12-17): Polis 54 percent; Stapleton 42 percent
CONNECTICUT: Businessman Ned Lamont (D) vs. Businessman Bob Stefanowski (R)
• Most Recent Poll: Sacred Heart Univ (Oct. 13-17): Lamont 40 percent; Stefanowski 36 percent
MAINE: Attorney General Janet Mills (D) vs. Businessman Shawn Moody (R)
• Most Recent Poll: Pan Atlantic Research (Oct. 1-7): Mills 44 percent; Moody 36 percent
MICHIGAN: Attorney Gen Bill Schuette (R) vs. Ex-St. Rep. Gretchen Whitmer (D)
• Most Recent Poll: EPIC/MRA (Oct. 18-23): Whitmer 46 percent; Schuette 41 percent
MINNESOTA: US Rep. Tim Walz (D) vs. Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R)
• Most Recent Poll: Mason-Dixon (Oct. 15-17): Walz 45 percent; Johnson 39 percent
NEW MEXICO: Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R)
• Most Recent Poll: Pacific Mkt Res (Oct. 17-25): Grisham 48 percent; Pearce 39 percent
OREGON: Gov. Kate Brown (D) vs. St. Rep. Knute Buehler (R)
• Most Recent Poll: DHM Research (Oct. 4-11): Brown 40 percent; Buehler 35 percent
LEAN REPUBLICAN
OKLAHOMA: Ex-AG Drew Edmondson (D) vs. Businessman Kevin Stitt (R)
• Most Recent Poll: Magellan Strat (Oct. 22-23): Stitt 51 percent; Edmondson 44 percent
SOUTH CAROLINA: Gov. Henry McMaster (R) vs. St. Rep. James Smith (D)
• Most Recent Poll: Trafalgar Group (Oct. 12-14): McMaster 56 percent; Smith 32 percent
LIKELY TO SAFE REPUBLICAN
Alabama: Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Mayor Walt Maddox (D)
Arkansas: Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) vs. B’man Jared Henderson (D)
Maryland: Gov. Larry Hogan (R) vs. Ex-NAACP President Ben Jealous (D)
Massachusetts: Gov. Charlie Baker (R) vs. Ex-Fin Sec Jay Gonzalez (D)
Nebraska: Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) vs. Councilwoman Jane Raybould (D)
Tennessee: Businessman Bill Lee (R) vs. Ex-Mayor Karl Dean (D)
Texas: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) vs. ex-Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D)
Wyoming: State Treas Mark Gordon (R) vs. Ex-State Rep. Mary Thorne (D)
LIKELY TO SAFE DEMOCRATIC
New York: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) vs. County Exec Marc Molinaro (R)
Pennsylvania: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) vs. State Sen. Scott Wagner (R)
