Category Archives: Governor

VCU Poll Questioned

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 12, 2025

Polling

The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University just released a new statewide survey that may spur more questions than it answers.

The poll (Aug. 18-28; 804 Virginia adults; 764 registered Virginia voters; live interview) finds the Democratic candidates sweeping the Republicans in the three statewide offices of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. While such a result is certainly conceivable in what has become a relatively reliable blue state, the methodology involved may suggest a high inaccuracy factor.

While the ballot test figures seem to be reasonably in line with regard to the Governor’s race, the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General conclusions seem a bit out of balance.

In the ballot tests, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), 48-39 percent, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D-Richmond) tops John Reid (R) by a closer 44-40 percent split, and former state Delegate Jay Jones (D) moves ahead of incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), 46-40 percent.

Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate Reid has largely been abandoned by his party’s leadership. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) even tried to remove him from the ticket. Therefore, we see little in the way of campaign activity coming from this GOP nominee. Yet, he is the best performer among Republicans according to this poll.

The person who has typically come forward as the strongest, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, is down beyond the polling margin of error in this VCU study. Other polls have shown the race to be tight, and even with Democrat Jones ahead, but Miyares has been aggressive on the campaign trail and is making a major effort. Therefore, this ballot test result appears at least somewhat surprising.

The poll has methodological flaws. First, the sampling period is a full 10 days, which is much longer than the typical three-day polling period that is the industry standard for live interview surveys. The long sampling period tends to skew final results because the political situation can change in a relatively short number of days.

In a two-question series where respondents are asked with which political party do they identify, 34 percent said Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 29 percent classified themselves as Independent. This break suggests a skew toward the Republicans because Democratic identification in Virginia, even though it is not a party registration state, should be more robust than leading Republicans by only one preference percentage point.

The follow up question sheds further light upon the party swings. Querying those who called themselves Independents, identified with a minor party, refused to answer the question, or simply said they didn’t know, the pollsters attempted to determine with which party they feel closest. Here, we see a much different split of 38 percent Democratic, 28 percent Republican, and 23 percent saying neither. This corrects the skew of the original question and brings the full electorate’s predisposition into a more realistic perspective.

The poll badly skews toward the older voter. While 29.2 percent of the Virginia population is over 55 years old, in the VCU poll this same age demographic accounts for 55.8 percent of the responses. Thus, despite the Republican candidates performing better with this age segment than their statewide numbers and seeing this demographic account for a strong majority of the responses suggests the weighting factor skewed significantly in favor of the Democratic candidates.

Another skew relates to the income segment. In the survey sample, 48 percent of those answering the income question are in the $100,000 and over range for household income. Approaching 28 percent of the universe responded with over $150,000 annual household income. Yet, the statistics indicate that only 32 percent of Virginia households are actually in this category. The upper income skew within this sample heavily favors the Democratic candidates.

With the election moving quickly into political prime time, we can expect to see a great many new polls released. Understanding the weighting methods of each will help determine a more accurate picture of where the electorate will head on November 4th.

Sen. Padilla for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 5, 2025

Governor

California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) | Facebook photo

During recent interviews, California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has confirmed that he is considering entering the 2026 open Governor’s race. If he does, that contest will fundamentally change.

While the Senator says he will not decide whether to run until the special redistricting election concludes in November, the clues we will see between now and then will reveal his ultimate intention. The fact that he is publicly not denying contemplating such a move suggests that he is leaning toward launching his candidacy.

Though only 52 years old, Sen. Padilla has already enjoyed a long California political career.

Elected to the Los Angeles City Council at the age of 26, he became Council President just two years later. After serving seven years on the City Council, Padilla was elected to the state Senate. He would easily win re-election to a second four-year term (at the time, state Senators were limited to two terms) and then ran statewide in 2014 for California Secretary of State and was elected.

Padilla would win re-election to his statewide position in 2018, and then Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed him to the US Senate replacing Kamala Harris when she resigned to become Vice President. He won election to a full US Senate term in 2022.

With experience winning statewide elections – in his two victories as Secretary of State and one for US Senate, Padilla averaged 59.7 percent of the vote – Sen. Padilla would certainly have an advantage over the rest of the large field that features 69 announced candidates for the all-party jungle primary. Within this large group that generally features minor candidates, only two have won a statewide election.

Before becoming US Health and Human Services Secretary in the Biden Administration, Xavier Becerra, who spent 24 years in the US House, was elected state Attorney General after then-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) appointed him to fill then-AG Kamala Harris’ vacancy when she was elected to the US Senate. San Francisco’s Betty Yee, a former Vice Chair of the California Democratic Party, was twice elected State Controller.

The other candidates of note are the early polling leader, former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-Orange County), state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). The two most prominent Republicans are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News host and policy analyst Steve Hilton.

While former Rep. Porter has led in the two reputable August statewide polls, one from Emerson College and the other the University of California at Berkeley, she has failed to reach even 20 percent of the preference vote. Adding a candidate of Sen. Padilla’s stature would very likely have a drastic impact on future polls.

As we know, Gov. Newsom is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Padilla run for Governor in 2026, he would be the fourth US Senator to do so, joining Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn.

Adding Padilla to this list portends that three of the four, with Sen. Tuberville being the exception, are not risking their position to run for Governor. This also means, if all prove victorious and each would be favored, the three enjoying free rides would then be able to appoint their own US Senate successor.

Another Senate Opening?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025

Senate

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

Media rumors had been routinely circulating through most of this year saying that Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was contemplating retirement, and apparently such a decision is about to be confirmed.

According to printed Iowa sources, it is expected that Sen. Ernst will imminently announce her retirement thus creating an eighth Senate open seat for the 2026 campaign.

Should Sen. Ernst pass on running for a third term as now firmly predicted, the Republicans would still be in strong position to hold the open seat. Waiting in the wings with the chance to become a consensus GOP candidate is three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) who has convincingly made what should be a politically marginal northeast Iowa 2nd District into a safe domain.

Hinson, a former news anchor for a Cedar Rapids television station, came to Congress in the 2020 election when she unseated first-term Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the pre-redistricting 1st CD. She has since averaged 55.6 percent of the vote in her two re-elections. In the 2022 race, she defeated a strong Democratic candidate, then-state Sen. Liz Mathis, who was also a former Cedar Rapids news anchor, with 54.1 percent of the vote.

The Democratic Senate field features state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. Likely the strongest potential Democrat and the party’s lone statewide officeholder, State Auditor Rob Sand, is already in the open Governor’s race.

The absence of Rep. Hinson in her 2nd CD would make the succeeding House race much more interesting. Already, four Democrats had announced their candidacy against Rep. Hinson including state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). A new Republican nominee would have some ground to make up and likely find themselves in a competitive toss-up general election race.

Of the eight open Senate races, both parties must defend four seats. It appears Democrats will have little trouble in holding Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin’s seat, though an expensive and hard fought primary is expected before the March 17 primary election.

The eventual Democratic nominee in Minnesota, and consensus candidate Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) from New Hampshire, have the inside track to holding their respective open seats to succeed retiring Sens. Tina Smith (D-MN) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

The Michigan open race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), will be hard fought and likely one of two premier national Senate races. GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers is becoming a consensus Republican candidate. The Democrats will have to maneuver through a competitive primary that won’t be decided until August among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

The open North Carolina campaign will be just as tough as Michigan’s, although in this case the general election participants are already known: former Governor Roy Cooper for the Democrats and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is risking his seat to enter his state’s open Governor’s race, a gambit that appears to be a safe bet. In his wake, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) will be the principal contenders in the open Senate contest with the primary victor becoming the prohibitive general election favorite.

Without Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Kentucky Senate race, it appears a competitive Republican primary will determine outgoing former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R) successor. The leading contenders are former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), and self-funding businessman Nate Morris.

Two other Senators are running for Governor – Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) – and possibly California’s Alex Padilla (D) joining them, but the trio are not risking their seats. All would be favored to win open Governor’s races, meaning each would appoint their own successors after assuming their new office.

Added to the eight open seat races portends a large number of freshman Senators being sworn into office at the beginning of 2027.

The Iowa Political Hotbed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 25, 2025

Iowa

The Hawkeye State of Iowa will be among the nation’s hottest political domains in the next year, featuring competitive races from the top of the ballot to the bottom. In the past week, we have seen new action occurring in several of the races.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R)

Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has not yet formally announced for re-election, and rumors that she would retire and yield to Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) as the consensus Republican candidate, have dissipated. Sen. Ernst says she will declare her intentions in the fall.

The fact that she has raised $6.7 million during her current term and maintains $3.4 million cash-on-hand is a good indication that she is running.

One person who won’t be in the Senatorial field is state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City). Previously declaring for the Senate, Scholten this week announced that he is dropping his statewide bid and endorsed state Rep. Josh Turek’s (D-Council Bluffs) US Senate effort. Also in the Democratic primary race are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage.

Sen. Ernst will be a strong favorite for re-election, but it is obvious the Democrats are going to make this race a national target.

With Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) retiring, the 2026 Iowa Governor’s race will be an open contest. Five Republicans have announced their intention to run including three-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City). In addition, two sitting state legislators, one former state Representative, and ex-State Administrative Services Director Adam Steen have all formally entered the Republican primary.

The Democrats are fielding four candidates, but all political eyes are on Iowa’s lone Democratic statewide elected official, State Auditor Rob Sand. A likely Feenstra-Sand general election will lead the ballot and promises to become a competitive race. Rep. Feenstra, however, begins the campaign as the favorite.

We will also see competitive action in all four of Iowa’s congressional districts.

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) will face challenges in the Republican primary and general election. Her 56 percent showing in the 2024 GOP primary against an opponent who literally spent no money and winning the general election with just a 799-vote cushion leaves her in vulnerable position. Her 2024 primary opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, is returning for a re-match and promises to raise and spend money in the coming race.

The 2022 and ’24 Democratic nominee, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, returns for a third run. She faces credible Democratic opposition, however, in the person of former state Rep. Bob Krause and attorney Taylor Wettach.

Rep. Hinson just drew a formidable Democratic opponent this week. State Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) formally announced her candidacy and will launch a spirited general election campaign. She faces three announced Democrats in the party primary, none of whom have ever been elected to any office.

After flirting with running for Governor and even moving to the open 4th District, which is a much safer Republican CD than his own, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) will seek re-election in his Des Moines anchored 3rd District. IA-3 is politically marginal (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 49.8R – 47.0D), which guarantees a close finish.

Two strong Democrats, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) and former state House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, are the major contenders. This district’s electorate has unseated two incumbents, one from each party, since 2018.

With Rep. Feenstra leaving the House to run for Governor, the open western 4th District will largely be decided in the Republican primary (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 61.9R – 34.9D). State House Majority Leader Matt Windchitl (R-Harrison County) and Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president Chris McGowan appear to be the leading GOP candidates.

The Iowa primary is scheduled for June 2. The state has a post-nomination election process for races that end with no candidate receiving 35% of the vote. A special party convention is then called for the affected district or state, with delegates choosing the eventual party nominee.

As we can see, all of the state’s most important races will offer a high degree of competition throughout next year. Expect Iowa to draw major national political attention in the coming months.

Arizona Governor:
Rep. Schweikert Considers Bid

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 21, 2025

Governor

eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale)

In a surprising development, eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale) is confirming reports that he is considering entering the 2026 Arizona Governor’s race. Congressman Schweikert says he will make a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate by the end of this month.

The fact that such a story has arisen firmly suggests he is headed toward running. In the statewide Republican primary contest are Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), who is leading in early polling, and Karrin Taylor Robson who ran for Governor in 2022 but failed to overtake Kari Lake for the GOP nomination.

Earlier in the year, President Trump issued a dual endorsement for Rep. Biggs and Robson, but her support was recently withdrawn because the President said she was not using his backing to its fullest benefit.

With Robson likely stagnating, Rep. Schweikert may see the opportunity of overtaking
Biggs in a GOP primary race that won’t be decided until Aug. 4 of next year. The eventual Republican nominee will be highly competitive against Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) who defeated Lake by a scant 50.3 – 49.6 percent count in 2022.

The bigger national story, should Rep. Schweikert become a gubernatorial candidate, would be the battle for his open 1st Congressional District.

The 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members didn’t do Rep. Schweikert any favors because they transformed his once safely Republican 6th District into a highly competitive 1st CD. Schweikert being convicted of 11 House ethics violations for misuse of his congressional office funds and the Federal Election Commission issuing a $175,000 fine for multiple campaign finance violations certainly didn’t help him win re-election, either.

In the last two elections, Rep. Schweikert, battling negative publicity relating to the ethics abuses and fines, recorded winning percentages of 50.4 and 51.9 percent in 2022 and 2024, respectively. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 50.9R – 47.5D district partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank AZ-1 as the 18th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

In the 2024 presidential race, Trump defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris here 51.9 – 48.0 percent. In 2020, however, President Biden carried the seat over Trump, 50.1 – 48.6 percent. The 1st District margin was one of the reasons the national Democrat carried Arizona, which became a major cog in the Biden victory over then-President Trump.

The Grand Canyon State’s 1st CD is fully contained within Maricopa County and anchored in the city of Scottsdale. The seat also includes Rep. Schweikert’s hometown of Fountain Hills and the cities of Paradise Valley and Carefree. The voting age population is 74 percent white, 14 percent Hispanic, 5.5 percent Asian, and 4 percent black.

The most recent district voter registration totals (July 1, 2025) reveal 207,076 Republicans (38.4 percent), 179,128 (33.2 percent) non-affiliated voters, 144,592 Democrats (26.8 percent), and 8,608 (1.6 percent) minor party members for a total of 539,404 registrants. The election statistics revealing much closer results than the voter registration figures seem to project indicates that the non-affiliated group votes predominantly Democratic. Therefore, the GOP’s registration advantage is less than one observes at first glance.

Should Rep. Schweikert opt for the Governor’s race, we can expect a crowded Republican congressional primary to develop.

The Democrats are already seeing spirited competition in their primary as 11 party members have announced their candidacies, including former state Representative, physician, and 2024 congressional nominee Amish Shah, 2024 congressional candidate and former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio, Tempe School Board member Andres Barraza, and Democratic National Committee member Mark Robert Gordon.

The AZ-1 campaign was already promising to be one of the most competitive US House races in the 2026 cycle and a major factor in deciding which party will control the chamber in the 2027-28 congressional session. As an open seat contest, this district will attract even more national political attention once the race intensifies.

Political News Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 11, 2025

Senate

Former Florida Attorney General and current US Sen. Ashley Moody

Florida — Educator and 2025 special election congressional nominee Josh Weil (D) announced that he is dropping his US Senate bid. Weil says a health condition prevents him from continuing his campaign. Earlier this year, he ran as a socialist in a conservative district but managed to raise more than $15 million mostly from national sources. Weil lost to now-Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) by a 57-43 percent margin in the April special election.

Nine Democrats remain in the primary race. Former Congressman Alan Grayson is the only contender ever elected to office. Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is competing in the 2026 statewide special election to serve the balance of the current Senate term. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed Moody, then the state’s Attorney General, to replace Marco Rubio, who was appointed US Secretary of State.

Iowa — Two more Democrats are coming forward to enter the 2026 US Senate primary. Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, a former chief of staff to First Lady Michelle Obama, announced during the week that she will enter the Senate primary. Expected to soon declare is state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs).

Already in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City). The eventual party nominee will challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in the general election.

House

AL-1 — In anticipation of Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) announcing for the Senate on Aug. 15, former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R), who lost to Moore when the two were paired in one district after a 2023 court-ordered redistricting, has filed a 2026 congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. The move further suggests that Carl will attempt a political comeback once Rep. Moore officially declares for the open Senate seat as expected.

Chances appear strong that ex-Rep. Carl will be able to win the open 1st District Republican primary and the general election in November of 2026. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for AL-1 is 76.5R – 22.0D.

CA-32 — Jake Levine (D), a former Biden Administration official and son of former Rep. Mel Levine (D-CA), announced his challenge to veteran Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks). Jake Rakov, a former Sherman staff member who says the Congressman has lost touch with his constituents, is also in the race. It is likely that another Democrat will advance into the general election against Rep. Sherman, who is virtually guaranteed to advance from the June 2, 2026, jungle primary.

CA-45 — Ex-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) announced that she will not return for a re-match against freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange). After her defeat by a margin of just 563 votes out of nearly 316,000 cast ballots, the second-closest race in the country, Steel filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Now saying she has “other goals,” Steel is abandoning a congressional comeback effort for next year.

The 45th District, which contains parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, carries a 52.2D – 45.9R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Kamala Harris topped President Trump here, 49.3 – 47.8 percent.

IL-16 — Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), after indicating he was considering entering the 2026 Illinois Governor’s race, has instead decided to seek re-election to a seventh term in the US House. Holding one of only three Illinois Republican seats, Rep. LaHood will be a prohibitive favorite to win both renomination and re-election in 2026.

NV-1 — State Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) next year. Republicans have needed a stronger candidate to oppose the Congresswoman in a district that could become highly competitive. Dave’s Redistricting App rates the NV-1 partisan lean as 52.6D – 42.3R, but the presidential races have proven closer. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the district, but with only a 50.2 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, President Biden won the seat with a 53.2 – 44.7 percent spread. Rep. Titus will be favored for re-election, but this is a contest that could draw national attention.

NY-1 — Air Traffic Controller and Army National Guard Black Hawk helicopter pilot Chris Gallant (D) announced his intention to compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge two-term Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County). In his two congressional races, Rep. LaLota recorded a pair of 55 percent victories. Assuming the district remains in its current configuration, the Congressman will again be a clear favorite for re-election.

Governor

Alaska — Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), in what could be an off-the-cuff response to a reporter’s question, indicated that she is considering entering the open Governor’s race next year. A crowded field is forming on both sides, but obviously Sen. Murkowski would become a key competitor if she were to run. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

California — Diamond Resorts International time share founder Stephen Cloobeck (D) joined the growing field for the 2026 open Governor’s campaign. Cloobeck began by issuing attack statements against his new opponents, and in particular toward ex-Rep. Katie Porter (D). More than 70 individuals have announced their intention to enter the statewide jungle primary. It remains to be seen just how many qualify for the ballot. It is certain, however, that the June 2, 2026, primary field will be large. Regardless of percentage attained and party affiliation, the top two finishers will advance into the general election.

Maine — Businessman Ben Midgley, the former long-time president of the Planet Fitness national gym company, announced that he will enter what is becoming a crowded open gubernatorial field in both parties. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term but is not ruling out a challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R).

In addition to Midgley, state Sen. Jim Libby (R-Cumberland), former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, businessman Jonathan Bush, real estate developer David Jones, University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy, and Paris Town Supervisor Robert Wessels, appear to be the major Republican candidates.

For the Democrats, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson are the major contenders. The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored to hold the position.

State and City

Georgia Attorney General — Former state House Minority Leader Bob Trammell (D) announced his candidacy for the open Attorney General’s position during the week. Republican state Sens. Bill Cowsert (R-Athens) and Brian Strickland (R-McDonough) are battling for the Republican nomination. Incumbent Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is running for Governor. Expect a close open seat general election battle for this office.

Kansas Attorney General — 2022 Attorney General nominee Chris Mann (D) announced he will return to seek a re-match with incumbent AG Kris Kobach (R). Three years ago, Kobach won a close 51-49 percent open general election.

Kobach has been controversial over the years especially when losing the 2018 open gubernatorial election to current Gov. Laura Kelly (D). Speculation was that Kobach would again enter the Governor’s race, but there is no recent indication that he will do so. Still, he can expect to see a competitive re-election battle for Attorney General next November.

Detroit Mayor — The Detroit mayoral jungle primary election was held on Aug. 5, and two Democrats advanced into the November general election. City Council President Mary Sheffield exceeded the 50 percent threshold in the first election, but under the Detroit city procedure one cannot win outright even with majority support. Therefore, she advances into an open November general election against second place finisher Solomon Kinloch, a well-known local pastor.

The field featured nine candidates including retired former Detroit Police Chief James Craig who was running as a Republican. Incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan (I) is not seeking a fourth term in order to run for Governor.

Seattle Mayor — In what will be a general election of far-left candidates, community organizer Katie Wilson (D) placed first in the Aug. 5 primary election with Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) finishing a close second among the eight candidates. Neither reached the majority support mark of 50 percent, as both finished in the high 40s. The general election will be highly competitive.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

[/caption]As has been expected for months, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) yesterday announced that she will enter her state’s open Governor’s race, and the political road appears clear for an easy victory. Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Upon her election, Blackburn would become the 51st Governor and the first female chief executive in the Volunteer State’s long history. Tennessee became the nation’s 16th state, officially admitted to the Union in 1796.

She must first battle Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) who, at this point, is the only other official Republican gubernatorial primary entry. With her strong electoral record and being a fervent Trump supporter, it is hard to see a scenario where she fails to claim the nomination. With Democratic strength at its nadir in the state, it becomes challenging to see how she would have difficulty in the general election.

Only one Republican gubernatorial poll has been published of the race, and that came back in January when Sen. Blackburn began confirming she was considering running for Governor. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released a survey (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and the results favored the Senator with a whopping 71-13 percent margin. The poll also found Sen. Blackburn scoring a clear 57 percent majority support figure in Rep. Rose’s 6th District.

Blackburn was originally elected to the Senate in 2018, defeating the state’s former two-term Governor, Phil Bredesen, in the general election by a 55-44 percent count. At the time, it appeared that Bredesen was in the strongest position of any Tennessee Democrat to win the Senate race, but then-Congresswoman Blackburn easily defeated him.

In November, Sen. Blackburn was re-elected in a landslide 64-34 percent victory over Nashville state Rep. Gloria Johnson in a political battle that was never close.

The Senator’s congressional career began with an open-seat victory in western Tennessee’s 7th District 23 years ago. Over her eight US House elections, Blackburn averaged 73.9 percent of the vote and fell below the 70 percent threshold only twice; she ran unopposed once in 2004. Prior to her service in Congress, Blackburn was elected to one four-year term in the Tennessee state Senate.

When talk of Sen. Blackburn running for Governor began, the Republican field was largely frozen, with only Rep. Rose stepping forward to challenge her for the party nomination. Candidate filing in Tennessee for the Aug. 6, 2026, primary ends on March 10, 2026, so much time remains for others to join the race and the situation could change. At this point, however, it appears most of the political jockeying will center around who might be appointed to fill the Senate seat after the new Governor is elected.

Should Sen. Blackburn be successful in her gubernatorial quest, she would be in position to appoint her successor. Since the Senator was just re-elected, the appointed Senator would serve until a special 2028 election would be held to fill the remaining balance of the term. This means the succeeding Senator would assume the office at some early point in 2027 and be eligible to run in the 2028 special election concurrent with the regular election schedule and calendar. The special election winner would then be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.

Blackburn is now the third sitting Senator who has announced plans to enter an open 2026 race for Governor. She joins Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). Of the three, only Sen. Tuberville is risking his seat to enter the state’s gubernatorial campaign.

All three are favored to win their party’s nomination and claim the Governorship in the ’26 general election. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is also saying she is considering launching a gubernatorial bid.