Category Archives: Governor

Rep. Schweikert Announces for
Governor in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

House

Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) / Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Another US House seat came open Wednesday as eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) announced that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor.

The House open seat count now grows, at least temporarily, to 33. Two more special elections will be held before the end of the year to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas.

Rep. Schweikert’s 1st Congressional District becomes the third Republican open in the volatile toss-up category. After the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members turned Rep. Schweikert’s safe Republican 6th District into a politically marginal 1st District, he has seen two very close re-election results along with a tight presidential contest within his current constituency.

In 2022, Rep. Schweikert was re-elected with just 50.2 percent of the vote over political newcomer and businessman Jevin Hodge (D). Two years later with Hodge not returning for a re-match, the incumbent scored another tight re-election victory but with an improved 51.9 percent against former state Representative and physician Amish Shah (D). This, after winning renomination with just under 63 percent of the vote.

Considering, however, that Schweikert had just agreed to violating 11 different House ethics rules and campaign finance violations resulting in an agreed to $50,000 fine, his strong campaign skills allowed him to politically survive.

President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here with a similarly close 51.1 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, Joe Biden nipped Trump within the current District 1 confines with a 50-49 percent margin.

Clearly, the 1st District congressional campaign will move further up the Democratic target list now that the seat is open. Already in the race originally vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Schweikert is a return appearance from Dr. Shah and former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who lost the 2024 Democratic primary.

Republicans will now have to find a new nominee with Schweikert pursuing his new statewide venture. Potential GOP candidates reportedly are state Rep. Matt Gress and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring.

Already, however, announcing they will not run for Congress, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, are Maricopa County Board of Supervisors’ chairman Thomas Galvin and state Sen. Carine Werner.

While Rep. Schweikert would have faced another difficult re-election campaign for the House, his path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination is also far from secure. In the race for months have been fellow Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 statewide candidate Karrin Taylor Robson.

At least at one point, President Trump had endorsed both Biggs and Robson but then appeared to rescind his endorsement of the latter. The President indicated he didn’t feel that she was using his endorsement to the fullest extent.

A recent Pulse Decision Science survey (Sept. 8-10; 502 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Biggs opening a large GOP primary lead. According to the Pulse ballot test, the Congressman would lead Robson 55-31 percent. The poll was taken just after Rep. Schweikert initially said he was considering entering the race. Adding him to the gubernatorial ballot test question found Schweikert trailing badly with only 11 percent support.

An August, Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 11-18; 365 registered Arizona Republican voters) gave Robson a 37-27 percent advantage over Rep. Biggs. This poll, however, appears to be an outlier.

Previously, four other surveys were released since the beginning of the year from four different pollsters and all cast Rep. Biggs with a substantial advantage. Within the four studies, Biggs averaged 55 percent preference among Republican primary voting respondents as compared to 20 percent for Robson.

The eventual Republican nominee after the Aug. 4, 2026, primary election will face incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Polling is already forecasting a close race irrespective of who becomes the ultimate GOP challenger.

With a tight Governor’s race, two open US House seats, and either primary or general election competition in five of the state’s nine congressional districts, Arizona will be a key electoral state in the 2026 midterm cycle.

Weekly Political Wrap-Up:
Period Ending Sept. 26, 2025

Kansas US Congressional Districts / Click on map above, or go to govtrack.us to see interactive map.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

Senate

Kansas — The Republicans in the Kansas legislature are determining if they will call for a special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional map. The Republicans have a veto-proof majority in both chambers, so they would theoretically be able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto regarding map passage. A two-thirds vote of both houses is also required to call a special session. The GOP has the numbers, but their margin is very tight. Therefore, the situation is uncertain.

If the Republicans’ redistricting plan is successful and the lone Kansas Democratic US House member, Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park), is targeted and her 3rd CD made unwinnable for her party, the Congresswoman will forgo re-election and instead challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year.

Alabama — A former White House aide and ex-military advisor to Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has entered the state’s open Senate race. Morgan Murphy now joins Attorney General Steve Marshall and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in vying for the Republican nomination. The eventual winner is a virtual sure bet to replace Sen. Tuberville who is running for Governor instead of for re-election.

Additionally, recently retired Auburn University men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl ended speculation that he would run for the Senate with an announcement of non-candidacy.

Massachusetts — Last week, Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) said he would not challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) for renomination, but the door has apparently opened for two other House delegation members to potentially launch such a challenge. Both Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) each said they are now considering forging a Democratic primary against the Senator. Much time remains because Massachusetts has one of the latest primaries in the nation. In 2026, the Massachusetts primary vote is scheduled for Sept. 15.

New Hampshire — A new co/efficient survey (Sept. 10-12; 904 likely New Hampshire general election voters; 346 Republican primary likely voters; live interview & text) confirms that former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) entering the open New Hampshire Senate race would make the general election very competitive. According to the co/efficient ballot test, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) would lead Sununu, 46-43 percent, a virtual tie. In a Republican primary ballot test, Sununu tops former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, 40-23 percent.

Sununu was elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving three terms in the House. He defeated then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to win the Senate seat. Six years later, Shaheen returned for a re-match and unseated Sen. Sununu in the first Obama presidential election year. She won two further terms and is retiring once this Congress ends. Sununu has not been on the ballot since losing his 2008 re-election campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) has drawn a Republican opponent. While talk about Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) challenging the Senator has dissipated, state Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Fredericksburg) has now become an official candidate. The state legislator has twice run for a different office — Lieutenant Governor and the US House, but failed both times to secure the party nomination. Sen. Warner will be favored to win a fourth term next year.

House

TX-29 — Former Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson (D) said publicly that he is considering challenging Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) in the new version of the 29th District. Only 37 percent of the current 29th is in the new 29th, so Rep. Garcia’s incumbency factor would be lessened in such a Democratic primary race. The Houston-anchored seat is still solidly Democratic, so the serious action will occur in the March 3 primary.

TX-32 — Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, who in 2023 left the Democratic Party and became a Republican, confirmed he is considering entering the newly created 32nd Congressional District that covers part of Dallas before stretching into east Texas. Current incumbent Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is most likely to seek re-election in the Democratic 33rd CD as opposed to what will become a Republican 32nd District. Before winning election as Mayor, Johnson served four terms in the state House of Representatives as a Democrat. He is ineligible to seek a third term as Mayor in 2027.

Governor

California — A surprising California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) was released during the week providing bad news to Sen. Alex Padilla (D). The Senator is reportedly considering entering the open Governor’s race.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only a 16 percent preference figure. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote, former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (8 percent). Sen. Alex Padilla (D) is next posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator.

Another gubernatorial entry has emerged. Former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (D) announced that he will join the crowded Governor’s primary calling for “a new generation of leadership.” Calderon is 40 years of age. The former four-term Assemblyman’s father, Charles Calderon (D), served in the state Senate and Assembly. He was elected Majority Leader in both chambers during his legislative career.

Minnesota — While Gov. Tim Walz (D) is now officially running for a third term, a new poll suggests he is in a battle for re-election. SurveyUSA, polling for Twin Cities television station KSTP (Sept. 15-18; 568 likely Minnesota voters) finds former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen (R) trailing Gov. Walz by only a 46-41 percent margin.

The poll results also found Gov. Walz with a 47:47 percent job approval rating that features only 20 percent strongly approving and 34 percent strongly disapproving. The Governor and former Vice-Presidential nominee also fares poorly in southern Minnesota, a region he represented in the US House, and with Independents. Thus, the early polling suggests the 2026 Minnesota Governor’s race will be in the competitive realm.

Oklahoma — State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters (R), who has had a controversial tenure but is a champion of the Republican Party’s right flank, announced his resignation to accept a job running a non-profit education organization. He was considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. The move is a boon to Attorney General Gentner Drummond who appears to be the leading GOP candidate for the party nomination. Becoming the Republican standard bearer is tantamount to winning the general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Virginia — A series of three September polls all find former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by spreads beyond the polling margin of error. Pulse Decision Science (Sept. 3-5; 512 likely Virginia voters) posts Spanberger to a 48-43 percent edge. Christopher Newport University (Sept. 8-14; 808 registered Virginia voters) sees the Spanberger lead larger at 52-40 percent. Finally, in the most recently released survey, co/efficient (Set. 22-23; 1,024 likely Virginia voters) finds a result closer to the Pulse Decision study, 49-43 percent, also in Spanberger’s favor.

From the three data organizations that track and average poll results, Real Clear Politics, Decision Desk HQ, and Race to the White House, all see Spanberger leading in an average range falling between 7.3 percentage points (Real Clear Politics) and 9.4 (Race to the White House). The Virginia election is Nov. 4, so political prime time is now fully underway.

Wisconsin — Badger State Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) announced late this week that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.

The move had been expected, and Rep. Tiffany’s chances of winning the Republican primary so far against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien are good. Tiffany’s strong conservative record gives him the inside track in attracting backing from right of center political organizations which have proven important in Republican primaries.

Democrats who have announced their own gubernatorial campaigns are Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not standing for a third term. We can expect to see a toss-up open seat gubernatorial election here next year.

City & State

Boston — After suffering a better than 3:1 negative showing in the September jungle primary, businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, has withdrawn from the Nov. 4 Mayoral general election. This means that Mayor Michelle Wu (D) has won a second term in that she is now unopposed in the regular election.

Rep. Tiffany Announces for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

Governor

Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua)

Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has announced that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.

The Tiffany move opens the state’s northwestern 7th Congressional District, a seat that occupies most of northern Wisconsin’s land area and is dotted with small towns and lakes. WI-7 contains 21 counties and parts of five others.

The district’s largest population hub is the city of Wausau, with a population of just under 40,000 residents. The town of Superior with almost 27,000 inhabitants lies at the southwestern tip of Lake Superior and across the water from Duluth, Minnesota. The vast district then stretches east along Michigan’s Upper Peninsula border before turning south and moving to the outskirts of Chippewa Falls.

The partisan lean for CD-7 is 57.0R – 40.8D. President Trump carried the district in all three of his campaigns and scored a 60.5 – 38.0 percent victory in his latest campaign against Kamala Harris.

There are currently 32 open races when including the recent announced retirements of Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) and Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) in Texas in addition to Tiffany now running for Governor. Recently filling seats in special elections are Democrats James Walkinshaw (D-VA) and Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), the latter just this week from southern Arizona’s 7th District.

Though the number of open seats remains consistent when factoring the retirements and special elections, the political landscape is different. What changes is the partisan complexion.

With the aforementioned latest developments, we now see 19 current Republican-held open seats as compared to just 10 from the Democratic Conference. Three new redistricting created seats in Texas have no incumbents. Two seats, TN-7 and TX-18, remain vacant pending special elections. A total of seven open seats lie in Texas alone.

Wisconsin’s 7th District has a long tradition of electing Republican House members. The lone Democratic exception since the 1892 election — but with a very long tenure — is former Congressman and House Appropriations Committee chairman David Obey who retired after the 2010 election. He was initially elected in a 1969 special election.

The seat reverted to the Republicans in the 2010 election when Sean Duffy, the current US Transportation Secretary, converted the 7th to the GOP column. Duffy resigned before the 2020 election, thus leading to Tiffany succeeding him in the House.

We can expect to see a crowded Republican primary field form that will undoubtedly feature a number of state legislators and county elected officials. It is likely that none of the candidates will begin the campaign with district-wide name identification. Therefore, we can expect a close Republican primary that won’t be settled until Aug. 11.

Democrats will field a credible nominee, but the region’s recent voting history and the favorable Republican draw on the current redistricting map will give the eventual GOP nominee the inside track toward winning the general election and beginning a career in the House of Representatives.

Ciattarelli Reverses Tide in NJ;
Grijalva Wins in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

NJ-Governor

Leading 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R)

Defying the consistent trend showing Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), a new internal National Research survey reveals a change in momentum.

According to the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal data, the National Research results (Sept. 16-18; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) project the Republican leading with a slight 46-45 percent edge over Sherrill. Earlier in the month, National Research (Sept. 8-10; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) saw Ciattarelli pulling to within a 47-45 percent margin of his Democratic opponent.

Other September polls, and generally all following the June primary, have posted Sherrill to high single digit leads. The two most recent prior to the latest National Research releases, from Quinnipiac University (Sept. 11-15; 1,238 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview) and Quantus Insights (Sept. 2-4; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) found Rep. Sherrill holding respective leads of 49-41 percent and 47-37 percent.

Organizations that track polling have recorded rather different post-primary averages for the race. The Real Clear Politics Polling Archives finds Rep. Sherrill’s cumulative lead at 8.8 percentage points, while two other stat entities see closer splits. The Race to the White House organization calculates an average 7.5 percent margin, while Decision Desk HQ projects the data result closer to what National Research is finding, giving Sherrill an average 4.2 percent edge.

It does appear that the race is getting tighter as we move toward the Nov. 4 general election. Additionally, Ciattarelli, even in this year’s Republican primary where he scored a 68 percent win, tends to under-poll by a significant margin. In the primary, cumulative research studies found him running nowhere near his final vote total.

For example, the final Emerson College pre-primary poll projected the Ciattarelli preference to be only 44 percent. Here, National Research was closer to the final result, but even their number (54 percent) fell 14 points behind the actual tally.

In the 2021 gubernatorial race where Ciattarelli was viewed as a decided underdog to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) who was seeking re-election, the aggregate polling underestimated the Republican’s strength.

According to the Real Clear Politics archives, six surveys from six different pollsters were released between Oct. 15 and the Nov. 2 election. Gov. Murphy’s average lead was 7.8 percentage points. The actual result was 51-48 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their Oct. 29-31 survey came closest to the final tally, projecting the race at 49-45 percent in the Democratic Governor’s favor.

Over the course of the past campaign, eleven 2021 polls were released from seven different pollsters providing Gov. Murphy with an average lead of 11.5 percent. Therefore, the ‘21 polling trend may prove similar to what we are starting to see in the 2025 Sherrill-Ciattarelli contest.

It appears the stage may be set for another closer-than-expected finish in the New Jersey Governor’s campaign.

AZ-7

As expected, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) easily won last night’s US House special election in Arizona’s Tucson-anchored 7th District and will succeed her late father in Congress. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) passed away in March.

Ms. Grijalva scored what appears to be a 68-30 percent win in a safely Democratic district before a turnout of approximately 102,000 voters. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean for AZ-7, meaning Rep-Elect Grijalva ran slightly ahead of the district’s vote benchmark.

The 7th CD houses part of Tucson and then moves south to the Mexican border before stretching west all the way to California. The district is 55 percent Hispanic and the second strongest Democratic seat in the Grand Canyon State. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here, 60-38 percent.

When Ms. Grijalva is sworn into the House, the partisan division will change to 219R – 214D. The two remaining US House special elections are in Tennessee (7th District; Oct. 7 special primary; Dec. 2 special general) and Texas (18th District; Nov. 4 jungle election; Gov. Greg Abbott (R) schedules the special runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives majority support after the official count projects the need for a secondary election). Republicans are favored to hold in Tennessee, and Democrats in Texas.

Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.

VCU Poll Questioned

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 12, 2025

Polling

The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University just released a new statewide survey that may spur more questions than it answers.

The poll (Aug. 18-28; 804 Virginia adults; 764 registered Virginia voters; live interview) finds the Democratic candidates sweeping the Republicans in the three statewide offices of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. While such a result is certainly conceivable in what has become a relatively reliable blue state, the methodology involved may suggest a high inaccuracy factor.

While the ballot test figures seem to be reasonably in line with regard to the Governor’s race, the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General conclusions seem a bit out of balance.

In the ballot tests, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), 48-39 percent, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D-Richmond) tops John Reid (R) by a closer 44-40 percent split, and former state Delegate Jay Jones (D) moves ahead of incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), 46-40 percent.

Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate Reid has largely been abandoned by his party’s leadership. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) even tried to remove him from the ticket. Therefore, we see little in the way of campaign activity coming from this GOP nominee. Yet, he is the best performer among Republicans according to this poll.

The person who has typically come forward as the strongest, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, is down beyond the polling margin of error in this VCU study. Other polls have shown the race to be tight, and even with Democrat Jones ahead, but Miyares has been aggressive on the campaign trail and is making a major effort. Therefore, this ballot test result appears at least somewhat surprising.

The poll has methodological flaws. First, the sampling period is a full 10 days, which is much longer than the typical three-day polling period that is the industry standard for live interview surveys. The long sampling period tends to skew final results because the political situation can change in a relatively short number of days.

In a two-question series where respondents are asked with which political party do they identify, 34 percent said Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 29 percent classified themselves as Independent. This break suggests a skew toward the Republicans because Democratic identification in Virginia, even though it is not a party registration state, should be more robust than leading Republicans by only one preference percentage point.

The follow up question sheds further light upon the party swings. Querying those who called themselves Independents, identified with a minor party, refused to answer the question, or simply said they didn’t know, the pollsters attempted to determine with which party they feel closest. Here, we see a much different split of 38 percent Democratic, 28 percent Republican, and 23 percent saying neither. This corrects the skew of the original question and brings the full electorate’s predisposition into a more realistic perspective.

The poll badly skews toward the older voter. While 29.2 percent of the Virginia population is over 55 years old, in the VCU poll this same age demographic accounts for 55.8 percent of the responses. Thus, despite the Republican candidates performing better with this age segment than their statewide numbers and seeing this demographic account for a strong majority of the responses suggests the weighting factor skewed significantly in favor of the Democratic candidates.

Another skew relates to the income segment. In the survey sample, 48 percent of those answering the income question are in the $100,000 and over range for household income. Approaching 28 percent of the universe responded with over $150,000 annual household income. Yet, the statistics indicate that only 32 percent of Virginia households are actually in this category. The upper income skew within this sample heavily favors the Democratic candidates.

With the election moving quickly into political prime time, we can expect to see a great many new polls released. Understanding the weighting methods of each will help determine a more accurate picture of where the electorate will head on November 4th.

Sen. Padilla for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 5, 2025

Governor

California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) | Facebook photo

During recent interviews, California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has confirmed that he is considering entering the 2026 open Governor’s race. If he does, that contest will fundamentally change.

While the Senator says he will not decide whether to run until the special redistricting election concludes in November, the clues we will see between now and then will reveal his ultimate intention. The fact that he is publicly not denying contemplating such a move suggests that he is leaning toward launching his candidacy.

Though only 52 years old, Sen. Padilla has already enjoyed a long California political career.

Elected to the Los Angeles City Council at the age of 26, he became Council President just two years later. After serving seven years on the City Council, Padilla was elected to the state Senate. He would easily win re-election to a second four-year term (at the time, state Senators were limited to two terms) and then ran statewide in 2014 for California Secretary of State and was elected.

Padilla would win re-election to his statewide position in 2018, and then Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed him to the US Senate replacing Kamala Harris when she resigned to become Vice President. He won election to a full US Senate term in 2022.

With experience winning statewide elections – in his two victories as Secretary of State and one for US Senate, Padilla averaged 59.7 percent of the vote – Sen. Padilla would certainly have an advantage over the rest of the large field that features 69 announced candidates for the all-party jungle primary. Within this large group that generally features minor candidates, only two have won a statewide election.

Before becoming US Health and Human Services Secretary in the Biden Administration, Xavier Becerra, who spent 24 years in the US House, was elected state Attorney General after then-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) appointed him to fill then-AG Kamala Harris’ vacancy when she was elected to the US Senate. San Francisco’s Betty Yee, a former Vice Chair of the California Democratic Party, was twice elected State Controller.

The other candidates of note are the early polling leader, former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-Orange County), state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). The two most prominent Republicans are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News host and policy analyst Steve Hilton.

While former Rep. Porter has led in the two reputable August statewide polls, one from Emerson College and the other the University of California at Berkeley, she has failed to reach even 20 percent of the preference vote. Adding a candidate of Sen. Padilla’s stature would very likely have a drastic impact on future polls.

As we know, Gov. Newsom is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Padilla run for Governor in 2026, he would be the fourth US Senator to do so, joining Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn.

Adding Padilla to this list portends that three of the four, with Sen. Tuberville being the exception, are not risking their position to run for Governor. This also means, if all prove victorious and each would be favored, the three enjoying free rides would then be able to appoint their own US Senate successor.