Category Archives: Governor

Klobuchar Announces for Governor

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar

As expected, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar has now officially entered the open Minnesota gubernatorial campaign with her announcement late last week.

Previously, she filed a gubernatorial campaign committee as a prelude to her formal declaration. Just re-elected to the Senate in 2024, Klobuchar does not have to risk her Senate seat to run for Governor.

It appears the four-term Senator and former Hennepin County Attorney is a lock for the Democratic nomination and will likely become the official party nominee at the state Democratic endorsing convention to be scheduled well before Minnesota’s Aug. 11 primary election. She will also be favored in the general election, but it remains to be seen what type of effort the Republicans will launch now that the race has drastically changed since incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (D) surprisingly ended his quest for a third term.

In all likelihood, Sen. Klobuchar will win the Governor’s race and then appoint her own successor to the US Senate. If this happens, the appointed Senator will have the opportunity of running to fill the balance of the term in 2028 and would be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.

Klobuchar is the fourth Senator this year running for Governor in their respective state. Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have also launched gubernatorial campaigns.

Tuberville is the only in-cycle Senator, however, as he risks his seat to run for Governor. His move looks to pay political dividends. Candidate filing has closed in Alabama, and he faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary. Only insurance agent Ken McFeeters and civic center manager Will Santivasci are competing against him for the party nomination in the May 19 primary.

After being nominated, Sen. Tuberville is likely to square off against former US Sen. Doug Jones who is in equally strong position to win the Democratic nomination. The general election will be a rematch of the 2020 Senate race, a campaign that Tuberville won easily, 60.1 – 39.7 percent.

The Senate election to replace Tuberville will likely be decided in the Republican nomination process. The principal contenders are Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson, and former Trump White House aide Morgan Murphy. Early polling favors AG Marshall, but President Trump has now endorsed Rep. Moore.

The Colorado race has produced at least one surprise. It appears that Sen. Bennet will have a fight on his hands in the Democratic primary against term-limited Attorney General Phil Weiser. According to the latest state financial disclosure report, AG Weiser has raised more in the way of campaign funds than Sen. Bennet. The numbers find Weiser accumulating $4.6 million in 2025 versus $3.5 million for his major opponent. Weiser also reported a $3.4 to $1.6 million cash-on-hand advantage.

There has only been one published poll of the Democratic race, which was released last June from the Global Strategy Group, a well-known Democratic professional polling firm. The ballot test found Sen. Bennet opening with a healthy 53-22 percent lead.

The winner of the state’s June 30 primary election will become a prohibitive favorite to clinch the general election and succeed term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D).

The Tennessee gubernatorial campaign is also likely to be decided in the party primary, but this time on the Republican side. Sen. Blackburn’s principal opponent is Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Blackburn is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination and the general election.

Sen. Blackburn has dominated the early polls. The most recent release came in late October from Targoz Market Research and projected Sen. Blackburn with a 58-9 percent landslide advantage over Rep. Rose. Large margins have also been present in the three other publicly released polls earlier in the year.

Assuming all four Senators win their race, three of them will likely choose their own successor unless the outgoing Governor makes the Senate appointment as he is leaving office.

Rumors suggest that in two of the three cases the outgoing Governor, himself, Polis in Colorado and Walz in Minnesota, could become the appointed Senator. Therefore, the four Senators running for Governor will also produce post-election political drama just as 2027 begins.

Klobuchar Files Gov. Committee;
Minnesota Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

It appears Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is moving closer to entering the Minnesota open Governor’s race, and her official announcement could come this week.

Toward the end of last week, Sen. Klobuchar filed a state campaign committee for the purpose of preparing a gubernatorial bid. The act of filing, in and of itself, does not mean an individual is an official candidate, but the prevailing Minnesota political reports suggest that launching her candidacy is imminent.

Since Gov. Tim Walz (D) had announced his intention to seek a third term but then withdrew at the height of publicity over the public assistance program fraud scandal, the potential Democratic candidate field found itself virtually frozen because of Sen. Klobuchar’s likely candidacy.

It is apparent that a Klobuchar entry would virtually seal the party’s gubernatorial nomination so Republican candidate speculation comes to the forefront. Former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen is the most likely GOP prospect, and he has confirmed his interest in a potential run.

Other possible Republican candidates are state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring), state Rep. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea), state Rep. Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove), ex-St. Cloud City Councilman Jeff Johnson, agribusiness company CEO Patrick Knight, and several minor candidates. Regardless of who wins the GOP nomination, Sen. Klobuchar will be rated a heavy favorite to win the governorship. If successful, she would then appoint her own successor to the Senate.

The state’s other Senate seat hosts an open race, too, because incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Here, we see a competitive two-way Democratic primary developing between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

While Rep. Craig has a financial advantage, and we will soon see the updated financial totals on the Federal Election Commission 2025 year-end report, Lt. Gov. Flanagan has the early polling lead.

Poll

A just released Public Policy Polling survey (Jan. 16-17; 976 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds Flanagan leading Rep. Craig, 40-28 percent.

The follow-up questions show that the Minnesota Democratic base is strongly liberal. When asked whether the respondent would be more or less likely to vote for Rep. Craig if they knew she voted to support the Laken Riley Act “that allows the deportation and detention of undocumented immigrants suspected of a nonviolent crime (PPP wording),” 59 percent responded less likely.

Additionally, 71 percent of those surveyed say they would be less likely to vote for Rep. Craig when knowing that she supported a congressional resolution “that included language expressing gratitude to ICE.”

On the secondary ballot test question, asked after reading the aforementioned responses, the Flanagan lead increases to a heightened 54-22 percent. Therefore, it appears Rep. Craig begins the election year as the underdog.

The Congresswoman’s difficulty factor will likely grow after the Minnesota state endorsing convention, held well before the Aug. 11 primary. Lt. Gov. Flanagan will be favored to win the official party endorsement from the attending convention delegates.

Typically, under Minnesota political tradition, most candidates who lose the endorsement vote end their campaign. It is becoming apparent, however, that Rep. Craig, should she lose, will force a primary campaign.

The state of Minnesota has attracted a great deal of national news attention in the past few weeks, and it appears the domain’s 2026 elections will draw even more.

Walz Out, Klobuchar In?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) yesterday announced that he is ending his bid for a third gubernatorial term and, perhaps more surprisingly, veteran US Senator and former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar (D) is reportedly seriously considering entering what will now be an open Governor’s race.

The unexpected turn of events appears directly connected to the controversy surrounding the alleged fraud claims regarding certain Minnesota public assistance programs. Clearly, the Governor’s internal polling revealed his chances of winning re-election have greatly diminished; hence, his rather abrupt decision to retire.

Should Sen. Klobuchar become a gubernatorial candidate, she will be the fourth senator choosing to run for governor in the 2026 election cycle. The others are Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). From this group, only Sen. Tuberville is risking his Senate seat to enter his state’s Governor’s campaign. The others, including Sen. Klobuchar, would all have a free ride relating to their current position and be in position to choose their own US Senate successor via appointment.

At this point in Minnesota, 11 Republicans have announced their gubernatorial campaigns including 2022 gubernatorial nominee and former state Sen. Scott Jensen, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Rocori) and state Reps. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea) and Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove).

It is unclear how the Walz retirement and potential Klobuchar entry will affect the burgeoning Republican field. In any event, considering Minnesota’s reliably Democratic voting history, the eventual party nominee, and particularly if it is Sen. Klobuchar, will be favored to win the general election. With the candidate filing deadline not until June 2 for the Aug. 11 primary election, much time remains for each party’s field to gel.

As previously mentioned, should Sen. Klobuchar run for and be elected Governor, she would appoint her successor. The appointed individual would then presumably compete in a 2028 special election to serve the balance of the term. In this case, because Sen. Klobuchar was re-elected in 2024, the appointed Senator, after winning the special election, would then have the opportunity of seeking a full six-year term in 2030.

Should the Klobuchar scenario occur, Minnesota would then have two freshmen Senators during the next Congress similar to the situation we currently see in Ohio. Because Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, the state’s in-cycle race is also open.

Gov. Walz was first elected to his statewide post in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. He averaged 53.1 percent of the vote in his two statewide campaigns. Prior to running for Governor, Walz represented the state’s southern 1st Congressional District for six terms. He then, of course, became the 2024 Vice Presidential nominee on the national Democratic ticket with Kamala Harris. Prior to his entry into elective politics, Walz was a high school geography teacher and football coach.

Nationally, 36 gubernatorial elections will be held later this year. In those 36 campaigns, 18 incumbents, down from 19 with the Walz decision, will seek re-election and the remaining 18 states will feature open gubernatorial competition. Within the group of 36 in-cycle states, each party currently holds 18 Governor’s chairs.

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year; Weekly Political Synopsis

Just a quick last post this holiday season before we take a break till the New Year.

All the best for a wonderful holiday season.

We’ll be back on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026!

By Jim Ellis — Dec. 24, 2025

Senate

Minnesota — While the Republican Party leadership waits for retired national sports reporter Michele Tafoya to make a decision about running for the Senate, former GOP state chairman David Hann announced that he will enter the race. Hann, who was ousted as chairman and lost his state Senate seat when running for re-election, does not have a strong base within the party. Therefore, he is unlikely to be a major threat. It will be important to watch unfolding developments around the Minnesota government benefit fraud scandal to see if the Democrats become weakened.

The Democratic Senate primary features Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). At this point, the eventual Democratic nominee will continue to have the inside track toward winning the general election.

House

CT-1 — The Democratic primary challenger field opposing veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) just got smaller. Former Southington Councilman Jack Perry ended his campaign because he did not see a path to victory. Three Larson intra-party challengers remain, however. They are: former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford), and Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

This is obviously a strong field, but the number of candidates in a plurality primary system could split the anti-incumbent vote to the point where Rep. Larson wins re-election with a small plurality. The Connecticut candidate filing deadline is June 9 for the Aug. 11 primary election. Therefore, much time remains for this race to develop.

FL-23 — Republicans have recruited a strong challenger to two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland). Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R) announced that he will challenge Moskowitz next year. With redistricting set to happen during the next legislative session, it is clear that the GOP map drawers will add Republicans to the 23rd CD. Under the current map, the partisan lean is 52.3D – 45.5R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculation) and Rep. Moskowitz has averaged just 51.9 percent in his two elections. Therefore, this will very likely be a race to monitor throughout the campaign cycle.

NC-3 — While the North Carolina Republican redistricting plan was geared toward making Rep. Don Davis’ 1st CD more Republican, a seat that became more Democratic is the neighboring 3rd District of Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville). The original District 3 partisan lean was 57.2R – 40.7D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Under the new plan that makes CD-1 more Republican, CD-3 drops to 52.8R – 45.2D, a net swing of 8.9 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Not surprisingly, two prominent Democrats jumped into the District 3 race as candidate filing closed. Ex-state Rep. Raymond Smith and the former CEO of The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America organization, Allison Jaslow, both entered the Democratic primary race. The winner of the March 3 primary will then face Rep. Murphy in the general election. Though this is district is more competitive, it is still a Republican seat, and the Congressman will again be favored for re-election.

Governor

California — We see another poll release that finds the large California open jungle qualifying election field again closely bunched. The California Issues Forum just released the results of their FM3 poll (Nov. 30-Dec. 7; 632 likely California jungle election voters; live interview & online) and actually found two Republicans leading the large group.

Former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) leads with 18 percent, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (R), Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore), former Rep. Katie Porter (D), billionaire Tom Steyer (D), former US Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D), and previous Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). After Hilton’s 18 percent support figure, the remaining candidates break down respectively at 17-17-13-6-3-3 percent preference numbers.

There is a scenario, though unlikely yet this poll result shows it could possibly happen, that the large number of Democratic candidates split the vote and the two Republicans advance to the general election with small percentages. The California qualifying election is June 2. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained, advance to the general election. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Ohio — For the second time in a week-long period, a newly released poll finds the presumptive Ohio open race gubernatorial nominees deadlocked. The T. Roosevelt Action group, an organization representing hunters and anglers, publicized their poll results (Dec. 3-8; 603 likely Ohio general election voters) that project Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy leading ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D) by a slight 45-43 percent count. Last week, Emerson College (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Acton holding a similar 46-45 percent edge.

The purpose of the T. Roosevelt Action poll was to test a ballot proposition regarding hunting and fishing, but they also included a Governor’s race query on their questionnaire. The Ohio Governor’s race is open because incumbent Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

Sen. Lummis to Retire; Stefanik Out

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 22, 2025

Wyoming Senate

Wyoming first-term Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R)

In what had been rumored in Wyoming political circles for several weeks, first-term Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) announced that she will not seek re-election next year. While saying it was the “honor of [her] life” to serve Wyoming in the Senate, Lummis said in her retirement release that at 71 years of age she does not have the energy to serve another six-year term at her current pace.

The Lummis decision means there are nine open US Senate seats, which is a high number in an election cycle with just over one-third of the 100-member body coming before the voters. Now, the political speculation turns toward who may run to replace Sen. Lummis.

Already at issue is whether Gov. Mark Gordon (R) will make a move to challenge the state’s two-term limit law. Based upon a legal flaw, attorneys and analysts believe that challenging the law in court would be successful. Therefore, Gov. Gordon may have a chance of running for a third term. It remains to be seen if the Lummis retirement influences his decision.

Most believe the Governor will not seek re-election and probably is not inclined to run for the Senate. With the candidate filing deadline not until May 29 for the Aug. 18 primary, much time remains to make political decisions.

Wyoming is arguably the most Republican state in the country, at least as President Trump is concerned. In the past two presidential elections, the Equality State was Trump’s best-performing domain with an average vote percentage of 70.3. In 2016, Wyoming giving him 67.4 percent of its votes was his second-best state behind only West Virginia. Therefore, the eventual US Senate Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to hold the seat for the party in the general election.

This brings us to at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne). The conventional Wyoming political wisdom suggested that if Gordon retired, Rep. Hageman would run for Governor, and the most contested political battle would be the open race to replace her in the House.

Now, should Gov. Gordon retire, Rep. Hageman could choose among entering the open Governor’s race, the open Senate campaign, or simply seeking re-election. The odds are strong that she would be a heavy favorite to win whichever contest she selects with a major open-seat Republican primary battle ensuing for the other two statewide posts.

NY Governor

On Friday, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) announced that she will discontinue her campaign for Governor and retire from the House at the end of the current Congress. The latter decision does not change the open-seat count because she was already relinquishing the congressional seat to enter the gubernatorial campaign.

Toward the end of last week, Siena College released their New York statewide poll (Dec. 8-12; 801 registered New York voters; live interview & online) that finds Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) re-establishing a strong lead over both Rep. Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R).

Against Rep. Stefanik, Siena sees the current Governor leading 49-30 percent. Polling results such as this, and assuming the Stefanik campaign internal data is producing similar totals, is likely a major factor in the Congresswoman’s decision to end her statewide bid.

In the battle for Rep. Stefanik’s open House seat, Democrats already have one candidate who has been campaigning for the better part of the year. When the Congresswoman was the President’s original nominee for US Ambassador to the United Nations, and it appeared a replacement special election would be called in CD-21, the district’s Democratic county chairs chose dairyman Blake Gendebien as their nominee.

Though holding a special election became unnecessary, Gendebien continued his campaign and reported having just over $2 million in his campaign account according to the Sept. 30 campaign financial disclosure report. Gendebien now has three Democratic opponents for the regular election, the most serious of whom appears to be former Deputy Assistant US Trade Rep. Dylan Hewitt.

On the Republican side, the current two top contenders are state Assemblyman Robert Smullen (R-Mohawk Valley) and businessman Anthony Constantino, who has already loaned his campaign $2 million.

New York’s 21st District occupies almost the entire land area of the state’s northeastern sector. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean is 52.1R – 44.6D, which certainly gives the eventual Republican nominee an edge but also suggests the general election could turn competitive.

Ohio’s Significance

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. To see interactive map, click on image above or here: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

Ohio

The Buckeye State of Ohio is another key 2026 electoral state. With an open Governor’s race, an appointed Senator seeking his first federal election, and as many as three top congressional campaigns, Ohio is clearly a place of significance in determining how the 2026 election will unfold.

A new Emerson College poll (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested both the state’s open Governor’s race and how appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is faring opposite former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

The Ohio political polling history typically features closely competing contests that tend to break, usually toward the Republican candidate, in the last two weeks of the campaign. While Ohio elections have been close over the years, few results have been forced into recounts.

The familiar polling pattern is already beginning. It remains to be seen if the elections will end in a similarly historical fashion.

According to Emerson, Democratic former state Health Director Amy Acton leads businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, 46-45 percent, meaning the open Governor’s contest is a virtual tie. Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Looking at the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted records a three point, 49-46 percent, edge over former Sen. Brown. It is important to remember that in Brown’s losing 2024 effort, he received more votes than he did for his last re-election victory (2018) yet still lost to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) by six percentage points.

As we know, Sen. Husted, at the time of appointment was the state’s sitting Lieutenant Governor, replaced resigned-Sen. J.D. Vance who, of course, left the legislative body to become Vice President. Sen. Husted must now run in 2026 to serve the balance of the current term. He will be eligible to seek a full six-year stint in 2028.

Ohio has also enacted a new congressional redistricting map, an exercise required under state law. Because the 2021 plan was adopted with only majority support in both houses of the legislature, and not a three-fifths count, the congressional map could stand for only two elections, meaning 2022 and 2024.

Last month, the bipartisan elected official redistricting commission, which includes Gov. DeWine, unanimously agreed upon a new map. Since every commissioner supported the new plan, legislative approval was not required under the state’s procedure, meaning the new map automatically became law.

The Ohio US House delegation currently stands at 10R-5D. Republican strategists hoped a new map would yield a two-seat gain, but such a final result could be a stretch under the new design. It does appear the Republicans will net at least one new seat, that of veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Competition opposite Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) is also possible, particularly for the former.

In 2024, Rep. Kaptur, in a 9th District where the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation was 48.8D – 48.6R, won re-election with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent margin over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). Under the new 2025 enacted plan, the DRA partisan lean is 55.2R – 44.0D, obviously a strong swing toward the eventual Republican nominee.

In Cincinnati’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Landsman sees his district transform from one that carried a DRA partisan lean 49.9D – 47.9R to a Republican majority seat at 51.6R – 47.5D. With a candidate filing deadline of Feb. 4 for the May 5 primary, the Republican leadership still has some time to find a highly credible challenger to the now vulnerable Democratic Congressman.

The original Republican plan objective called for targeting two-term Rep. Sykes, who had won two close elections from her northern Ohio 13th District. Republicans had a strong candidate in 2024 nominee and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who came within two percentage points of upsetting Rep. Sykes.

After seeing the new partisan lean calculation of 51.0D – 48.2R, however, Coughlin decided that even this slight swing toward making the district more Democratic was a bridge too far for him to overcome in a midterm election. The previous DRA partisan lean for District 13 was 50.7D – 47.0R. Therefore, he withdrew from the race. Republican leaders are also looking to recruit a strong candidate for this seat.

As you can see, the Buckeye State has a number of crucial races that will determine the state’s direction in electing a new Governor, and possibly the federal outcome, too, with an important Senate race and several hot congressional campaigns.

The Third Hot State

Michigan Congressional Map / To see interactive map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

US House

While the most recent attention for flipping the US House has been devoted to the redistricting changes in California and Texas, a third state that did not redistrict will have an equivalent effect upon the 2026 national US House picture.

The Wolverine State of Michigan will be one of the hottest political states in the country for the 2026 election from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Because of the domain’s later April 21 candidate filing deadline and Aug. 4 partisan primary schedule, the early national political focus has been elsewhere, but such does not diminish Michigan’s importance as a ‘26 electoral player.

At the top of the ticket, and for the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and Senate race in the same election cycle. In the House races, we could see major competition in five of the state’s 13 congressional districts. One of those CDs is open, and two others feature freshman members seeking their first re-election.

The Governor’s race will be unique in that it not only projects to be close, but three-term former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent instead of a Democrat means we will see a competitive statewide campaign not just between two candidates, but three.

At this point, it appears that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will be the respective Democratic and Republican gubernatorial nominees. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to compete for a third term, but we are likely to see more of her as a probable 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring after two terms has made the Michigan open Senate campaign one of the most competitive in the country and may be the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat.

The latest published poll, from Mitchell Research & Communications (Nov. 18-21; 616 likely Michigan general election voters), projects Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers to small leads each over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D). The latter three are already embroiled in a close primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The lateness of the Michigan primary is another break for Rogers since he is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination and can stockpile resources for the general election.

The five competitive races that will have a major effect upon which party controls the next House majority begins in western Michigan with Districts 3 and 4.

In the Grand Rapids anchored 3rd District, which is rated as Lean Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 50.2D – 46.6R), Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), after briefly considering a Senate run, will seek a third term. Republicans don’t yet have a strong candidate capable of converting the seat, but this district is a top GOP recruitment priority.

In the 4th District, veteran Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), who seriously tested the US Senate waters before turning back under GOP party leadership pressure, has not yet officially announced that he will seek re-election in what again promises to be a competitive general election. In 2024, Huizenga won with a 55-43 percent majority against a weak opponent whom he outspent by a 3:1 ratio.

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean for CD-4 is 51.8R – 45.1D meaning the Republicans have a clear advantage but a strong Democrat would have a credible chance of securing an upset victory. Should Huizenga decide to retire, this race will likely go into toss-up mode. Democrats have four announced candidates including state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), who is already polling close to Huizenga.

The area encompassing the cities of Flint, Lansing, and the northern Detroit suburbs will feature potentially the three hottest Michigan US House campaigns.

In the Lansing anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) was the only 2024 candidate to convert an open seat. He will now defend his position within a hot political climate in what promises to be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Six Democrats have announced their candidacies and the leading contender for the party nomination appears to be former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. The DRA partisan lean for this toss-up seat is 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Flint-anchored 8th CD saw Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), then a sitting state Senator, defeat three-time GOP congressional candidate Paul Junge by a 51-45 percent margin. The DRA partisan lean of 51.0D – 46.2R, however, suggests the race could have been a bit closer. Republicans have yet to file a top contender, but this contest will again be close and is, like MI-3, at the top of the GOP candidate recruitment list.

Rep. James departing the 10th District to run for Governor leaves what could become one of the closest open seat races in the country. The DRA partisan lean here is 49.5D – 47.9R which has led to two close James’ victories.

Both parties already have five announced candidates. Republicans feature Mike Bouchard Jr., whose father is the Oakland County Sheriff and a former statewide candidate, while Democrats see former US Commerce Department Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel as their current top candidates.

Potential Republican contenders include former Congressman Mike Bishop and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke. Much will happen in MI-10 before the filing deadline as the candidates and potential candidates continue to test the political waters.

Regardless of how the national redistricting wars end, the US House majority will likely come down to just a few seats. It is clear that Michigan will play a pivotal role in determining which party will ultimately claim control of the House chamber at the beginning of 2027.