Category Archives: Election Analysis

Former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers Leads All Dems in
Michigan Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Senate

A new Detroit media poll finds former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) leading all of his potential Democratic opponents in the Michigan open Senate race.

In 2024, Rogers lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just three-tenths of one percent, or 19,006 votes of more than 5.5 million ballots cast. He represented the state’s Lansing area anchored congressional district from 2001-2015 and chaired the House Intelligence Committee for four years.

The Glengariff Group, polling for the Detroit News and WDIV-Channel 4 (Jan. 2-6; 600 likely Michigan general election voters; live interview), found Rogers at least slightly topping his three potential Democratic opponents: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

The former seven-term Representative’s strongest showing, 48.0 – 41.6 percent, came opposite Dr. El-Sayed. The closest, a virtual tie, was against Rep. Stevens (44.1 – 43.7 percent). If Sen. McMorrow were his general election opponent, Rogers would post a 45.7 – 42.4 percent margin.

Though these results are good news for Rogers and the Republicans, the other poll questions suggest a bad political climate for the GOP; hence, as we have seen in other places, many of the respondents’ answers appear inconsistent.

For example, by a 55.0 – 34.0 percent margin the respondents feel the United States is on the wrong track. The generic question regarding the party in which the respondent would support for Congress found the Democrats enjoying a 41.7 – 35.6 percent advantage. The fact that Rogers is leading his race despite the political climate numbers currently favoring the Democrats is obviously a positive sign for his 2026 campaign.

The other advantage for Rogers is the three Democrats being locked in a difficult primary battle. The Real Clear Politics polling average for the most recent recorded period (Oct. 23 – Nov. 21, 2025) found Rep. Stevens holding only a 26-24-18 percent Democratic primary edge over Sen. McMorrow and Dr. El-Sayed, respectively.

The fact that this will be a resource-draining primary for the Democratic contenders and not decided until Aug. 4 is another advantage for Rogers who faces only former Michigan Republican Party co-chair Bernadette Smith and businessman Andrew Kamal for the GOP nomination.

His largely unencumbered path to the party nomination will allow Rogers more uncontested time for fundraising and building a campaign organization. In 2024, Slotkin outspent Rogers by a better than 4:1 margin. This time, he will have the time and the presence to substantially improve his own fundraising while his Democratic opponents are spending heavily against each other.

Despite his fundraising disadvantage in ’24, Rogers outperformed the polling with his close loss. According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, 13 statewide polls were conducted from Oct. 24 through the election on Nov. 4. Slotkin averaged a 2.3 data-point lead in the aggregate 13-poll universe, and trailed in only one survey, while two ballot tests were tied.

Most of her advantage came at the beginning of the late October period, however. As the race closed, three surveys were conducted just before the election and each pollster, Atlas Intel, the Trafalgar Group, and Insider Advantage, correctly foresaw that the contest was evolving into a pure toss-up. Atlas Intel posted Slotkin to a one-point lead, and both Trafalgar and IA found the two candidates tied. Therefore, the later pollsters correctly predicted that the momentum had switched to Rogers as the campaign closed.

At this point, it appears the Michigan open race is the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a Democratic Senate seat. With their 53-47 majority on the line, a GOP victory in the Wolverine State would virtually guarantee that the party would hold its majority.

The Michigan seat is open because two-term incumbent Gary Peters (D) chose not to seek a third term. He likely would have been favored for re-election.

Through the modern political era, Democrats have enjoyed strong success in the Wolverine State US Senate races. The last time a Republican won a Michigan Senate contest came in 1994 when Spencer Abraham scored an upset win. Sen. Homer Ferguson, with his re-election win in 1948, is the most recent Michigan Republican to win a second term.

It is clear that another hard-fought Michigan US Senate campaign will be a premier 2026 national contest. Already competitive, we can again count on seeing a close finish.

Key Senate Races Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 16, 2026

Senate

As we know, Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority and the unfolding competitive statewide races suggest that the GOP will retain chamber control, but their margin could lessen.

A total of nine Senate seats are open but only two of those, Michigan and North Carolina, appear hotly competitive for the general election. The remaining seven are projected to retain the party that currently holds the respective seat. Eight of the nine in this group, however, will host highly contested primary elections for at least one party. North Carolina features the only open Senate race where the party nominees already appear set.

Another group of nine seats are contested for the general election, and it is here where Democrats will make a run at taking the Senate majority away from Republicans. To do so, they must reach 51, since Vice President Vance would break a 50-50 tie; Democrats would have to win seven of the nine contested races.

The Republicans are defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, while the Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Earlier this week former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who lost her seat to current Rep. Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak) in 2024, surprisingly launched a Senate campaign. Most believed she would enter the open Governor’s race where her prospects appear brighter. In the Senate race, she faces an uphill challenge against two-term incumbent Dan Sullivan (R), who has posted an average winning margin of 14.9 percentage points in his two elections including defeating Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in 2014.

Alaska’s unique top four/Ranked Choice Voting system does give Peltola some chance of winning the Senate race in the same manner as how she cobbled together two US House victories. If she can hold Sullivan under 50 percent in the general election, Ranked Choice Voting will begin and then all bets are off. At the outset, however, Sen. Sullivan is favored to win re-election.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after two terms, and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) appears as a consensus 2026 GOP Senatorial candidate. She will be favored to hold the seat probably against the Democratic leadership’s top choice, state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), though several credible party members are competing for the nomination.

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) will defend her seat against either Gov. Janet Mills (D) or oysterman Graham Platner. Platner is the chosen Democratic Socialist candidate and has attracted major far left political figures to his campaign such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The general election will be close no matter who the Maine Democrats nominate.

North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring after two terms, and we will see a tight contest develop between former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. North Carolina always features tight statewide elections, but for the first time in history Republicans have overtaken Democrats in party registration. This race, however, will likely end in a photo finish.

Appointed Ohio Sen. Jon Husted (R) faces the voters in his new role for the first time (he previously won two statewide races as Secretary of State and was twice on the gubernatorial ticket with Gov. Mike DeWine), and his opposition will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The fact that ex-Sen. Brown lost his seat in 2024 even though he garnered almost 293,000 more votes than when he last won in 2018 shows strongly the Ohio electorate is moving to the right.

The Texas Republican primary is likely going to a runoff between two of three candidates: Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Democrats feature a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). A better general election picture will be drawn once the party nominees are chosen, but Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) will be seeking a second term, and he already leads the nation in campaign fundraising. Republicans likely won’t have a nominee until a May runoff election concludes. A secondary election campaign potentially between Reps. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) and Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) could well determine who challenges Sen. Ossoff in November.

The most vulnerable Democratic Senate seat may lie in Michigan. Here, an open contest between favored Republican Mike Rogers, a former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee, and one of the following: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), or former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, will take place.

The Michigan Democrats not only face a difficult primary campaign, but the nomination election isn’t until Aug. 4. The lengthy Democratic primary means Rogers will enjoy a long period of political open field running where he can build volunteer support and funding reserves.

Should former Sen. John E. Sununu win the New Hampshire Republican Senatorial nomination — and he is favored to do so over former ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown — the GOP will have a strong candidate to battle presumptive Democratic nominee Chris Pappas, the 1st District Congressman.

Though Pappas will be considered at least a slight favorite to win the general election, the Sununu name in New Hampshire has generally been political magic over the years. The Sununu family, including former Gov. John Sununu, ex-Gov. Chris Sununu, and ex-Senator and former Rep. John E. Sununu, have combined to win 11 major New Hampshire elections.

It remains to be seen if any other Senate contests enter the competitive realm, but electoral history suggests that an unexpected campaign is also likely to reach the political forefront.

Republicans are likely to hold their majority, but all of the aforementioned campaigns should be regularly monitored throughout this election year.

Florida Rep. Neal Dunn to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 15, 2026

House

Florida Rep. Neal Dunn (R)

The cavalcade of House retirements continues. Five-term Florida Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) announced Tuesday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Rep. Dunn, a physician, served in the Army Medical Corps for 11 years before coming to the Florida Panhandle where he founded two medical facilities and a bank, all prior to his initial election to the US House in 2016.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) indicates he will call a special session in April for congressional redistricting, so we can expect to see some different district configurations result in northern Florida. Rep. Dunn’s open 2nd District will likely become more Republican under new construction since the GOP map drawers will want to secure the district for a new party nominee.

Rep. Dunn’s 2nd District currently stretches from west of Panama City to the city of Perry at the easternmost point of the CD and through the capital city of Tallahassee, including all of Leon County. The 2nd features a 54.3R – 43.7D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App statistics), a distinctly Republican seat but one with a weaker GOP inclination than most of the Sunshine State’s northern congressional districts. It would be an easy territory swap for the new map drawers to include more Republicans from the western 1st District in exchange for a commensurate amount of Democratic territory moving from the 2nd to the 1st.

Click on image to go to interactive map of Florida CDs on DavesRedistrictingApp.

Congressional districts 1-7, and 11 and 12 comprise northern Florida and all are Republican held. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the Republican partisan lean factors within these nine districts range from 67.5R (FL-1; Rep. Jimmy Patronis) to 52.8R (FL-7; Rep. Cory Mills).

The weaker districts are 7, 4 (Rep. Aaron Bean-R), and Rep. Dunn’s 2nd CD. Expect all three to gain Republicans under a new draw with the three strongest northern Florida GOP seats, the 1st, 6th, and 5th (Rep. John Rutherford-R), potentially giving up Republicans to strengthen the others.

The 6th District, which freshman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) represents, may remain close to its current configuration because he is the candidate who won the special election when then-Rep. Mike Waltz resigned to join the Trump Administration. Rep. Fine actually represented a state Senate district about 100 miles from the 6th CD, so keeping this seat as strong as possible will be a GOP goal to make sure that Fine has a viable opportunity to solidify his new political base.

Watch for a major redraw of District 7. Here, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), who is under a scandal cloud and holds the weakest Republican seat in northern Florida, is staring at a difficult re-election. He already has two Republican primary challengers with several other possibilities depending upon how the new 7th is drawn.

Because the current 7th District partisan lean is only 52.8R – 45.0D, without redistricting Rep. Mills can expect a credible Democrat to challenge him. Six Democrats, including former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton, are preparing campaigns, but this field could also drastically change once a new configuration becomes public.

It will be interesting to see if the map drawers decide to draw the seat with Mills-favorable Republicans or design a new 7th so another Republican likely wins the party nomination, thus jettisoning Rep. Mills because of his scandal trouble.

With Rep. Dunn retiring, the open-seat count now grows to 53 (28 Republican seats; 20 Democratic; and five new seats created through California and Texas redistricting). Of the 48 current members not seeking re-election, only 19 are retiring from elective politics. The remainder, excluding the two members who have passed away, are running for different offices.

California Rep. Julia Brownley
Will Not Seek Re-Election

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 13, 2026

House

Seven-term California Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/ Ventura County)

As the new year begins, congressional retirement announcements are increasing. Late last week, seven-term California Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/ Ventura County) announced that she will not seek re-election this year.

Immediately after the Congresswoman made her political intentions public, state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) declared her congressional candidacy with Rep. Brownley’s endorsement.

Brownley served three terms in the California Assembly prior to winning her first election to the Ventura County-anchored 26th Congressional District in 2012. In her seven congressional races, the Representative averaged 56.8 precent of the general election vote, which is the District 26 projected Democratic partisan lean number.

The new 26th saw only minor changes in the 2025 redistricting map. Prior to voters adopting the new plan, the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated a 56.8D – 41.2R partisan lean. The new 26th, which stretches a bit further east into Los Angeles County largely for the purpose of making freshman Rep. George Whitesides (D-Agua Dulce/Santa Clarita) 27th District slightly more Democratic, has a partisan lean of 56.7D – 42.5R.

The new 26th is moving closer to the competitive realm, but it is still wholly within the universe of distinctly Democratic California congressional districts. Under the 2022 redistricting map, Rep. David Valadao (D-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic California district to elect a Republican. Under that plan, the CA-22 partisan lean was 55.5D – 42.6R.

Jacqui Irwin was first elected to the state Assembly in 2014. Under the California term limit law that allows members to serve up to 12 years in one chamber, Irwin is ineligible to seek re-election. Prior to winning her seat in the legislature, Assemblywoman Irwin served two terms as Mayor of Thousand Oaks and three on the Thousand Oaks City Council. She begins her 2026 congressional campaign as the favorite to win the seat.

The 26th District covers about 80 precent of Ventura County, sharing with District 24 (Rep. Salud Carbajal-D) and veteran Democrat Brad Sherman’s CD-32. The CD-26 remaining constituency resides in Los Angeles County. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the district over President Trump 56-41 precent, which is consistent with the regional partisan lean.

Rep. Brownley’s retirement announcement brings the total open seat count for the next election to 52. She is the 20th Democrat to leave the House.

A total of 18 members from both parties are retiring from elective politics (17) or have resigned from the House (1). Thirteen departing Representatives are running for the Senate and another 13 are seeking the Governorship of their respective state. One member, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), is running for Texas Attorney General. Two seats are vacant due to the incumbent’s death.

Though articles have been written about the Republican exodus from the House, in actuality, more Democrats (11) are retiring from elective politics than Republicans (7). Obviously, a greater number of Republicans are seeking a different office.

Five new seats were created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas. The latter state has three new vacant seats, while two California Democratic members are leaving their current congressional districts to run in another CD under the new map’s boundaries.

Sacramento area Rep. Ami Bera is leaving District 6 to run for election in CD-3, while Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) departs from the 38th CD to seek election in new District 41.

Peltola Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Senate

Former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) announces her Senate candidacy in this Facebook post.

Reports from last week suggesting that former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) was seriously considering running for the Senate this year have proven correct. Peltola, defeated for re-election to the House in 2024, announced Tuesday that she will challenge two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan later this year.

Though the Senate race was always on the table for Peltola, her decision to jump into this challenger contest is still a bit surprising. Considering the crowded Republican field running in the open Governor’s campaign, it appeared that Peltola would be assured of qualifying for the general election with a reasonable chance of winning the Governorship against possibly three Republicans advancing from the state’s unique top four primary system. Peltola’s chance improves even further when such a scenario advances to the Ranked Choice Voting round, through which she won her two congressional races.

The Alaska electoral system features an August jungle qualifying election where all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. The top four finishers then advance into the general election. If no candidate receives majority support, the Ranked Choice Voting rounds begin.

The top four/Ranked Choice Voting system was challenged at the ballot box in 2024 through a voter initiative and survived by just 664 votes in the statewide tabulation. System opponents have again filed for another run at repealing the system and it appears enough signatures have been filed to qualify for the 2026 ballot. Even if the repeal proponents are successful in the ‘26 election, however, the top four process will still be in effect for the present cycle.

Though polling is already showing a Sullivan-Peltola Senate race to be a virtual toss-up, such is not surprising at this point in the election cycle. It is common to see the Alaska Democratic candidates consistently polling better early than they actually perform when votes are counted on election day.

For example, in the 2020 presidential race, President Trump appeared to be in a dead heat with future President Joe Biden in the Last Frontier, but the Republican ended with a secure 10-point win. In the 2024 congressional race, then-Rep. Peltola led Republican Nick Begich III by 9-14 percentage points in early polling before losing in a 51-49 percent Ranked Choice Voting final.

While Sen. Sullivan should still be regarded as the favorite for re-election, Peltola’s candidacy certainly makes the Senate race competitive. Looking at the rest of the country, we now see eight states where voters will decide a potentially tight Senate election.

In addition to Alaska, Republicans will be defending key Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas, while Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. For Democrats to reach a majority status of 51 Senate seats in this election, they would have to win seven of these eight hotly contested campaigns.

While the Peltola candidacy in Alaska puts another Republican Senate state in play for the Democrats, the party chances of capturing the majority in 2026 are still slim, but they may lessen the current 53-47 GOP margin.

Rep. Steny Hoyer to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Monday, January 12, 2026

House

Former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville)

First winning a special congressional election in early 1981, 23-term US Representative and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) stated in an interview with a Washington Post reporter that he will not seek re-election next year.

At the end of this Congress, Hoyer, 86 years old, will complete just under 57 years in elective office counting his time in the US House and the Maryland state Senate. After losing a race for Lieutenant Governor in 1978 for which he left the state Senate, Hoyer served a three-year stint as an appointed member of the Maryland Board of Higher Education.

During his four-plus decades in the House the Congressman served as an elected member of the Democratic leadership for 26 years, holding the positions of Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman, Caucus Chairman, Minority Whip, and Majority Leader. He also served three years as the Maryland state Senate President.

Including Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-CA) death last week, the House open seat count now grows to 51; 27 of these seats are Republican held, 19 Democratic, with five new openings created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Of the members not seeking re-election in 2026, a total of 14 are running for Governor, 13 for US Senate, and one seeking a different office (Rep. Chip Roy running for Texas Attorney General). Two seats are vacant due to the member passing away (Rep. LaMalfa and Texas Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner), while 16, like Rep. Hoyer, are retiring from elective politics.

Four of the open seats are vacant and will be filled in special elections before the regular cycle contests. The TX-18 seat, open because of Rep. Turner’s death, will be filled in a runoff election on Jan. 31.

New Jersey Governor-Elect Mikie Sherrill’s (D) 11th Congressional District will host a partisan primary election on Feb. 5 and a special general on April 16.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) this week scheduled the special jungle primary to replace resigned Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) for March 10, with a runoff if necessary, because no one receives majority support in the initial election, for April 7.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will soon schedule the special election to replace the late Rep. LaMalfa in the state’s 1st CD.

Maryland’s 5th Congressional District occupies most of the Chesapeake Bay’s western shore region. It contains all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s counties, about one-third of Anne Arundel County, and approximately one-quarter of Prince George’s County. It also houses the Waldorf, La Plata, Upper Marlboro, and Mechanicsville population centers.

MD-5 is strongly Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 60.9D – 36.4R partisan lean. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here in 2024 with a 65.5 – 32.2 percent margin. In 2020, President Biden carried the district with an even more lopsided 67.4 – 30.9 percent spread.

A total of eight Democrats had announced a primary challenge to Rep. Hoyer, but none appeared capable of launching a major campaign. We are now likely to see several prominent Democrats come to the forefront to compete for a position that will be open for the first time in 46 years.

Though the 5th will remain in the Democratic column for the general election, we can expect to see a very competitive open party primary to be decided on June 23. The Maryland candidate filing deadline is Feb. 24.

Mary Peltola for Senate?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 9, 2026

Senate

Alaska’s Mary Peltola (D)

Surprising reports are coming from Alaska indicating that former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) will announce a US Senate bid before the end of this month.

The move is eyebrow-raising in that it was presumed by most that Peltola, who lost her seat in 2024 to current at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak), would enter the open Governor’s race. In that campaign, she would easily have punched her ticket into the general election and eventually face a Ranked Choice Voting Republican opponent who is politically much weaker than two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan (R).

Should these reports prove true, Peltola, who won two congressional elections through the state’s top four primary system featuring the Ranked Choice Voting option, would likewise advance into the general election. Attempting to unseat Sen. Sullivan, however, might become a bridge too far.

In the 2024 congressional race, then-Rep. Peltola held a huge resource advantage over Begich. The campaign spending ratio was 5:2 in Peltola’s favor ($13.2 million to $2.6 million), yet she would lose the race by a 51.2 – 48.8 percent mark after three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting.

In a contest against Sen. Sullivan, who already has more than $5 million in his campaign account, the dollar advantage would likely fall to the incumbent, though both will have more than enough financial support to communicate their respective messages in a one-congressional district state.

Because Peltola has been circumspect for months about the race she might enter, or whether she would run for public office at all in 2026, pollsters have tested her for several offices.

Two polls were released in 2025 pitting Peltola against Sen. Sullivan. The results were not surprising as she has typically polled close in her past electoral efforts and ended with very tight results in her three congressional campaigns.

In her trio of federal political battles, winning two (both against former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin) and losing one (to Begich), Peltola averaged 51.8 percent of the vote. All three of her races required Ranked Choice Voting rounds since none of the candidates reached the majority mark in the initial vote.

The Alaska Survey Research firm released an online US Senate campaign survey in late October of 1,908 likely voters. The result found Peltola holding a 48-46 percent lead over Sen. Sullivan. An earlier poll, from the Democratic firm Data for Progress, (published Aug. 8, 2025; 678 likely Alaska voters; online) found the Senator holding a slight 46-45 percent edge.

Data for Progress also tested Peltola in the Governor’s race. In the firm’s Aug. 8 poll, the ballot test results found the former Congresswoman commanding 40 percent support in the top four jungle primary that includes all candidates irrespective of political party affiliation. Her total compared to radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson’s (R) 11 percent preference figure while Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) attracted 10 percent support. None of the other five candidates (four Republicans and one Democrat) included in the poll broke into double-digit figures.

In the March 2025 Data for Progress survey, Peltola topped Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom 44-34 percent in a projected two-way general election. Therefore, the news breaking that Peltola has more interest in a Senate challenge than in running for the open Governor’s position was unexpected.

For the 2024 congressional race, two Republican firms, American Viewpoint and Cygnal, in August of that campaign year released polls finding then-Rep. Peltola leading Begich, 45-39 percent and 46-45 percent, respectively. A mid-September American Viewpoint survey posted Begich to a 44-40 percent edge. Finally, Cygnal’s mid-October numbers projected a Begich lead of 49-45 percent.

Thus, the aggregate polling largely proved accurate because the predicted tight finish proved true.

While Mary Peltola entering the 2026 US Senate race would probably not end in victory for her, she would certainly put the race in play for the Democrats who need a net gain of four seats to capture the Senate majority, and of course political lightning could strike. A Sullivan-Peltola race would certainly be competitive and would attract a significant amount of national political attention.