Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Democrats Win in Wisconsin;
Republicans Take Florida

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Elections

Wisconsin circuit judge Susan Crawford

Wisconsin — In the state Supreme Court regular election in Wisconsin, though nonpartisan on the ballot, Democrat circuit judge Susan Crawford easily defeated Republican former Attorney General Brad Schimel by a 55-45 percent margin to maintain the party’s 4-3 majority on the court. The ramifications of this victory could mean the new court will redraw the state’s congressional map, which would likely lead to a net loss of Republican seats.

The outcome in Wisconsin may be the most significant of all of last night’s election results. The Badger State supported President Donald Trump in the recent 2024 election, but it was the closest of all the swing states, yielding a victory margin of less than one percentage point in the 2024 election. On the other hand, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected on that same night by a similarly slim vote spread.

The margin in the state Supreme Court race exceeded the published polls and was greater than expected. Having a clear majority in this hotly contested and expensive campaign will likely embolden the court to venture down a more partisan political path.

Should the Wisconsin high court judges decide to redraw the congressional districts under the partisan gerrymandering argument — before the 2024 election the court redistricted the state Assembly and Senate districts but not the congressional boundaries — the Republicans who would be most endangered appear to be Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Considering the results, it is probable that the Democratic base was more energized than the Republican, and Independents broke toward the Democrats, and significantly so in the Wisconsin situation. We also see further evidence that many Trump voters are only that and cannot necessarily be counted upon to turnout for Republican candidates without the President himself being on the ballot.

Turnout in all of the races last night was high. The Wisconsin turnout, of more than 2.3 million, or two-thirds of the number who voted in the 2024 presidential election, is high. In both of Florida’s congressional races, turnout exceeded 150,000 voters, and almost reached 200,000 in Florida’s 6th District, which is extremely high for special elections.

Florida — Despite what appeared to be the potential of a Democratic upset in Florida’s 6th Congressional District special election, resigned Republican state Sen. Randy Fine last night secured the congressional seat that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R) vacated to accept his Trump Administration position.

In the other Florida election, as expected, state CFO Jimmy Patronis held the seat from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned. Since the far western Panhandle 1st Congressional District is the safest Republican seat in Florida, it was little surprise that Patronis won. As in FL-6, however, the Democratic nominee, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, outspent the winner. The victory percentages, both in the 57 percent range, were well under President Trump’s performance in both districts.

In the FL-6 seat, while Sen. Fine was being out-raised early by a 10:1 margin, the Republican apparatus expended major resources and increased the early vote operation. The GOP advantage was approximately 10,000 votes when combining the mail and in-person early votes. This gave Fine the cushion he needed to secure the election with voters who cast their ballot at the polls. In the end, Fine would win with a margin of more than 27,000 votes.

While the analysis will claim this is a Republican under-performance victory, it is important to remember that Fine represented — before his resignation under Florida’s resign to run law — a state Senate seat more than 100 miles from the heart of CD-6, with no common constituents between the two districts. Therefore, he began the election with no previously established base.

This, plus having to overcome $10 million-plus in expenditures potentially accounts for a somewhat diminished margin as opposed to voters expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration.

The 1st District is significantly more Republican than the 6th, so in reality the Patronis 57 percent victory is actually a greater underperformance than that of Fine. Here too, however, we see a Republican who does not live in the district being outspent and in this case the Democratic message appears stronger. Valimont was concentrating on services that should be brought to the district, such as a VA hospital, as opposed to Fine’s opponent, educator Josh Weil, who campaigned as an admitted socialist and referred to himself as “a bad-ass teacher.”

A Questionable Texas Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Senate

Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

A new Texas statewide poll shows Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in a hypothetical Senate Republican primary, but the survey contains several flaws.

Lake Research and Slingshot Strategies partnered on a poll for the Texas Public Opinion Research organization (reported only as March 2025; 700 registered Texas voters) and though the study was designed predominantly to test issues and attitudes, the ballot test between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton, showing the incumbent trailing the challenger 38-27 percent before a Republican vote segment, cannot be considered reliable.

First, there is no indication as to how many people were surveyed as “Republican primary voters” because there is no number disclosure of self-identified Republicans. Using the percentages answering the partisan identification question means the segment cell could possibly only contain a maximum of 315 respondents, which would be very low for a statewide survey in a place the size of Texas.

Secondly, the pollsters did not test the entire proposed GOP field. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) was not included on the ballot question even though he has been firmer in statements about running for the Senate than has Paxton.

Third, the data gathering period was not identified, nor was the data collection method, the latter meaning live interview, Interactive Voice Response system, text, or online. Without this information, it is difficult to detect a proper error factor.

Fourth, a four-term Senate incumbent attracting only 28 percent within his own party on a ballot test is hard to believe, and likely wholly understated, though the Paxton support figure of 38 percent could be about right.

Fifth, the pollsters exhibited a somewhat liberal bias with regard to the types of questions asked and the descriptive language used, especially when describing the abortion question. The query asked respondents if they identify as pro-choice or anti-choice. Certainly, the anti-choice option would receive less support than if described as pro-life.

The favorability index question responses were also curious especially relating to Sen. Cornyn. In fact, of the 11 individuals and institutions queried for a favorable or unfavorable rating, Sen. Cornyn finished dead last (21:43 percent). Again, it is difficult to find credible that a scandal-free elected official who has won six statewide elections (four for US Senate; one for state Attorney General; one for Texas Supreme Court) would perform so badly.

Of all 11 people tested, former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred, the only Democratic politician on the list, finished with the strongest favorability rating, 37:30 percent positive to negative. Allred is the only tested individual or institution to finish with a positive rating even though he lost the Senate race this past November to GOP incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz by almost nine percentage points.

In contrast, both President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance are three points down (Trump: 47:50 percent; Vance: 44:47 percent), yet the Trump-Vance ticket carried the state by almost 14 percentage points.

For his part, AG Paxton scored a 35:40 percent index, which is not particularly bad considering he came within a few state Senate votes of being removed from office in 2023. Again, an argument can be made against the Lake/Slingshot reliability factor when seeing an elected official who was almost removed from office largely by members of his own party (at least in the State House of Representatives) enjoying a better standing within the electorate than a sitting incumbent with no personal scandal who has been elected six times to statewide office.

It will be interesting to see if Paxton ultimately decides to run. While his performance in this Lake/Slingshot poll is stronger than Sen. Cornyn’s, which would encourage him, fundraising under the federal election system will not.

Gone would be the days when a contender could call selected donors and receive major contributions sometimes totaling seven figures as he or she can under Texas election law. Running for Senate, Paxton will have to fund raise in small increments: $3,500 per election, or a grand total of $10,500, if someone wanted to fully support him in the Republican primary, the Republican runoff (if necessary), and the general election.

While certain individuals might contribute large dollars to a Super PAC supporting Paxton or opposing Cornyn, they would have no control over how the money is spent. Furthermore, contributing to an incumbent, as many big donors did for Paxton when he was AG, is much different than contributing major dollars against an incumbent, especially one that many of these same prospective donors have also supported in past campaigns.

Considering Texas will hold its primaries on March 3, 2026, this election campaign will soon be swinging into high gear.

Tomorrow’s Elections

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 31, 2025

Elections

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

Important special elections will be held in Florida and Wisconsin tomorrow, and voting in Louisiana on four constitutional amendments this past Saturday did not go the Republican Governor’s way.

At stake tomorrow are two key Sunshine State Republican congressional seats and a crucial state Supreme Court race that will decide the Wisconsin high court majority. The latter election could lead to significant redistricting ramifications for the 2026 campaign cycle.

Florida — In Florida, Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, appears poised to hold the 1st District for the GOP despite being outspent by his Democratic opponent, athletic trainer Gay Valimont.

Patronis does not live in the 1st District for which he is campaigning. This is the CD that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned at the beginning of the Congress, thus forcing the special election. The Patronis family, however, owns a major restaurant in the Florida Panhandle which increases Jimmy Patronis’ familiarity throughout the region.

Additionally, he has twice been on the ballot in his statewide runs for CFO, carrying the 1st District both times. Furthermore, at R+38 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and FL-1 ranking as the 39th-safest seat in the Republican Conference according to the Down Ballot statistical blog makes a Democratic upset here extremely unlikely.

Democrats have greater optimism about the 6th District even though 538 rates this seat as R+28 and Down Ballot forecasts it as the 105th-safest GOP district.

The candidate campaign spending imbalance favors the Democratic nominee, educator Josh Weil, by almost a 10:1 ratio, which has put the seat in play. Two polls were conducted at the end of last week, and both show a small spread between the two candidates, with Weil and Republican nominee Randy Fine, a state Senator, each leading in one.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm tested the race but did not publicly release the data. Yet, it is being reported that this survey found Fine trailing Weil by three percentage points. The only fully released survey, from St. Pete Polls (March 22-25; 403 likely FL-6 special election voters; interactive voice response system & text; 38 percent of whom stated they had already voted), projects Fine leading 48-44 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Fine’s district is more than 100 miles from the heart of Congressional District 6, and he represents no carryover constituents in the CD. Republican leaders have been complaining that Fine is a poor fundraiser but moving him into a district where the average Republican voter has never heard of him makes his task all the more difficult.

A Republican loss here would bring potentially disastrous ramifications to the Trump legislative agenda and at least for the short term reverse the GOP’s positive momentum.

Wisconsin — The stakes are also high in Wisconsin where a Supreme Court race could lead to an early redraw of the current congressional district map. Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D) and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) are the candidates but will appear on the ballot with no party label.

Spending on both sides has been heavy. Should Crawford win, it is quite possible the court will then order the congressional map redrawn, which could mean the loss of two Republican seats. This would be especially dangerous for the GOP if the court orders special elections to be held after a redraw is complete.

A superintendent of public instruction election is also being conducted. Both candidates are Democrats, but the more conservative of the two has a fundraising advantage and a chance to defeat the incumbent. A ballot initiative to enshrine the state’s voter ID law in the state constitution is also before the electorate’s consideration.

Louisiana — In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was advocating for four different constitutional amendments that pertained to several subjects including budget, taxes, spending caps, teacher bonuses, juvenile justice, and special elections.

Liberal organizations, largely intent on defeating the amendment that would have increased penalties for juvenile crime, created a “No on All” campaign to sink all four amendment proposals. Some conservative organizations also opposed several of the ballot propositions for other reasons. A major reason for the landslide defeat of all the measures was their complexity. Some analysts believed the lengthy intricacies of the four amendments made them difficult to fully understand, so the safer move was voting “no on all.”

GOP Loses Another Special

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 28, 2025

States

Earlier this year, Iowa Democrat Mike Zimmer made national news by flipping a Republican state Senate seat in a special election, and now another similar situation unfolded this week.

Pennsylvania Democrat James Malone won a state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

On Tuesday, Democrat James Malone won a Pennsylvania state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won a full presidential term back in 1964.

The question being asked is whether this is a budding trend or simply occurred because Republicans failed to turn out enough of their much larger base of conservative/right-of-center voters.

In each case, the elections were close. In Iowa, Sen. Zimmer won his seat by 338 votes (or a 3.6 percent margin from a total turnout of 9,305 voters). In Pennsylvania, Malone defeated Republican John Parsons by a similar 482 votes within a universe of 53,900 cast ballots (a margin of just under nine-tenths of one percentage point).

Neither upset victory caused the Republicans to lose their majority in the respective state Senate body, but the media is spinning the results as a rejection symptom of the national Trump agenda.

In special elections, especially after a major national vote, it is rather commonplace to see the losing party begin to rebound in low turnout balloting events. Therefore, such a pattern has certainly been witnessed before but it is not a positive story for the previous election winners, and especially this year when the two 2025 special elections were held in seats that typically vote strongly Republican.

The departing legislators in each case were Republican stalwarts. In Iowa, the 35th Senate District, which is anchored in Clinton County and hugs the Illinois border just north of the Quad Cities region, was open because the previous incumbent, Chris Cournoyer (R), was appointed Lieutenant Governor to fill a vacancy in that office.

In the Pennsylvania district that is fully contained within northern Lancaster County, the previous incumbent, Ryan Aument (R), resigned after being appointed as state director for new US Sen. David McCormick (R-PA).

Earlier, we covered the situation pertaining to the two Florida congressional elections that will be decided on Tuesday. There, the Democratic candidates in wholly Republican districts, one anchored in Pensacola and the other in Daytona Beach, have heavily out-raised their Republican opponents by a combined ratio of better than 5:1. Should an upset occur in either one of those districts, we will see a repeat performance of the media coverage regarding the two state Senate flips, but to a much greater degree.

Florida’s 1st District, from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned, looks secure for state CFO Jimmy Patronis (R) despite him being outspent. Though Patronis does not live in the 1st CD, he is a well-known figure in the Florida Panhandle as a major restaurateur, and he has been on the ballot throughout the district as a statewide elected official.

The 6th CD, the district that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz previously represented, is also strongly Republican, but GOP candidate Randy Fine, a state Senator from Melbourne, represents a state legislative seat two CDs and a minimum of 100 miles away, which means there is no crossover representation between his Senate seat and the 6th Congressional District. Being a lesser-known candidate may make it somewhat more difficult to convince Republican voters to participate in an irregular election.

Additionally, the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race that will determine the partisan majority on that high court and could have congressional redistricting ramifications, will also be decided Tuesday.

Here, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford (D) has raised more than $26 million for her statewide campaign, almost double the total of her opponent, Republican former state Attorney General Brad Schimel. Elon Musk has come to Schimel’s rescue to largely even the score on the airwaves. Therefore, this will be another important race to watch on April 1. Though the judicial races are nonpartisan, this campaign has been fought on very partisan grounds.

It appears that Tuesday’s election will carry more national significance than one might have originally guessed.

Dems Record Major Dollar Advantage for Florida Specials

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 27, 2025

House

Two special congressional elections will be decided in the Sunshine State on Tuesday, and if fundraising is any indication the Democratic nominees are alive in very red districts.

Florida’s 1st and 6th CDs are vacant due to the resignation of Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) and Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Both districts are solidly Republican, especially the 1st.

According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, FL-1 holds a R+38 rating, the strongest of the 20 Republican held Florida congressional districts. President Donald Trump carried this seat in both 2020 and 2024 with support numbers reaching almost 70 percent. Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis is the Republican nominee and is forced to relinquish his statewide position under the state’s election law in order to run for another office.

The 6th CD, located on the Atlantic Coast and housing the cities of Daytona Beach, De Land, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast, rates R+28 within the same FiveThirtyEight ranking scale. President Trump, according to The Down Ballot political blog calculations, carried the district with a 65-35 percent margin in November.

The GOP candidate is state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) who attracted endorsements from the entire Republican hierarchy, including President Trump, during the party primary that was decided on Jan. 28.

On paper, these seats should be unassailable for the Democrats, but the party’s candidates in each district have significantly out-raised their respective opponents. In the 1st, Democratic nominee Gay Valimont, an athletic trainer who was the 2024 nominee and who lost to Rep. Gaetz 66-34 percent, collected over $6.6 million through the Federal Election Commission disclosure period ending March 12. This compares with Patronis’s just under $2.2 million in receipts through the same time frame.

The more troubling spot for the GOP is likely the 6th District where the party nominee, Sen. Fine, represents a 19th state Senate District that is over 100 miles from the geographic heart of the 6th CD and has zero crossover population. The Republican leadership, including President Trump, was able to virtually clear the primary field for Fine, but his local contacts are obviously weak since he is a largely unknown political figure in the region.

For his part, Democrat Josh Weil, who bills himself as a “bad-ass teacher” in his ads, had raised $9.4 million through March 12 as compared to Fine’s $987,000 over the same period. Outside Republican and right-of-center organizations have added over $2 million in expenditures to help neutralize the Democratic spending advantage.

While the campaign financial numbers are imbalanced, the key to the Republican strategy is turnout since the party enjoys large advantages in voter registration (55 to 21 percent over the Democrats in the 1st and 49 to 25 percent in the 6th) and electoral history. Currently, early and mail voting is underway. For the November general election, 71 percent of voters in the 1st District voted before election day, as did 73 percent of 6th District registrants.

In the special election, 51,020 individuals cast a ballot in the special 1st District Republican primary which represents just 13 percent of the total participation number recorded in the 2024 general election. Because Valimont was unopposed in the special Democratic primary, no election was held, and she was therefore declared the party nominee.

Turning to the 6th District, just 40,811 people voted in the special Jan. 28 Republican primary and 15,986 for the Democrats meaning a total participation number of 56,797 or just over 13 percent of the general election total turnout figure.

Therefore, while the Republican turnout was much larger than the Democratic participation factor, the GOP will need to increase their voter turnout rate to a greater degree for the April 1 special general to compensate for the significant resource imbalance that will be used to maximize Democrat and Independent participation.

Though the Democrats have gotten a fundraising boost in these special elections, the overwhelming voter registration figures and electoral history still gives the Republicans huge advantages that will likely carry their nominees to victory in both seats.

Should we see the most improbable of Democratic upsets, and such happening in the 6th District is more probable than with the 1st, political reverberations would be nationally felt and might prove a linchpin in derailing the Trump agenda, not to mention reducing the already slim House GOP majority margin. Thus, the stakes for Republicans in Tuesday’s special elections are becoming extremely high.

US Supreme Court Hears
Louisiana Redistricting Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 26, 2025

House

The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) heard oral arguments Monday over the Louisiana redistricting process that led to the state hosting two Black districts, but the decade’s final map is yet to be decided.

So far, the process has led to the revival of a congressional district that was declared unconstitutional in 1994, which is a seat stretching all the way from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, which effectively cuts through the middle of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s 4th District.

Ironically, the member negatively affected when the seat was declared unconstitutional 30-plus years ago was then-Rep. Cleo Fields (D), who is also the beneficiary of the current draw. Fields, after serving two terms in the House, would later be elected to the state Senate, a body in which he served prior to his election to Congress. Once the same previously rejected congressional district configuration returned to the Louisiana map in 2023, it was again Fields who would run for the re-created 6th District and once more enter the US House of Representatives.

When the original 2021 congressional map was adopted, the partisan division again favored the GOP by a 5-1 count. Democratic plaintiffs went to a favorable federal district court in Baton Rouge to file their case, and Middle District Chief Judge Shelly Dick, an appointee of President Barack Obama, as predicted, ruled in their favor. The map was returned to the legislature for a redraw with the instruction to craft a second Black district. The new map forced then-Rep. Garret Graves (R) to retire, which virtually assured Fields of returning to Congress.

Republicans then filed a constitutional challenge to the new 6th District, citing the court’s rejection of such a draw in 1994, and a three-judge federal panel constituted to hear the case ruled in favor of the GOP plaintiffs and declared the map a gerrymander, just as was determined 30 years earlier.

The ruling was then sent to the Supreme Court where a summary affirmation of the lower court ruling was expected. In a surprise pre-election ruling, however, the high court stayed the case with the six Republican justices voting in favor of the stay and the three Democrats opposing. The stay cost the Republicans a seat, and almost the party’s small majority.

Monday’s hearing featured a long, very active, and at times intense session with even Justice Elena Kagan jumping in to answer a question from Justice Sam Alito before the presenting attorney could answer, and Justice Brett Kavanaugh asking whether the time had come to “sunset the Voting Rights Act.”

Unless the court now decides to summarily affirm the three-judge panel ruling, which they can still do, we can expect a final decision on this case at the end of the session in June. Regardless of how the court rules, it will affect the 2026 congressional elections and also the House majority because of the slim 220-215 eventual edge the Republicans will likely hold once the vacancies are filled barring any special election upsets.

If the court rules in favor of the current state map, Democrats will hold their second seat in the Louisiana delegation. If the high court ultimately upholds the three-judge panel ruling, then the state’s plan will become void and the map would return to the panel for a redraw, assuming the legislature does not step in and issue an alternative congressional plan.

Should the legislature not take action, and it’s unlikely they will be in session when SCOTUS decides the case, the three-judge panel will draw a new map, which will probably lead to a GOP gain of one seat. Such a move would likely return the delegation to a 5R-1D split along with returning Speaker Johnson to a more compact and undivided district.

Once again, Louisiana is in the forefront of a redistricting drama battle. It remains to be seen how this chapter ultimately ends.

A Budding Realignment

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Voting Trends

Former Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

New post-election analysis reports are being released suggesting the foundation for political realignment is being laid, but whether the Republicans can effectively change their vote targeting strategies to take advantage of this new opportunity remains the unanswered question.

There was a great deal of discussion and analysis about the minority voting trends in the 2024 election, but significantly fewer assessments were published or aired pertaining to the changes in the youth vote.

Exit polling was providing some data, but now more reliable information from actual precinct voting totals is available for analysis.

The media reporters highlight exit polling on election nights, because the information is quickly obtained, and it provides them with filler information for the early post poll-closing hours.

The problem is exit that polling is not particularly accurate, because the sampling is not altogether random. The methodology is often flawed because the sample, which generally consists of in-person interviews at polling places and early voters contacted via telephone, is not systematically drawn. In exit polling, individuals typically volunteer to participate. This further skews the sampling universe because the participants are not wholly representative of the active electorate.

The Blue Rose Research entity, a Democratic survey research firm, released a report about the minority and age segmentation data based upon actual votes in statistically significant precincts. Their results, particularly in reference to the youth vote, are quite surprising and could further indicate that the electorate may be in the beginning phase of political realignment.

The Blue Rose report confirms that President Donald Trump performed better among minority voters than most other Republicans, particularly among Hispanic men, but his non-Hispanic White youth support figures are actually astonishing.

Within the White male 18-20 years of age segment, former Vice President Kamala Harris received only 28 percent support. The numbers from this particular study track only the percentage preference for Harris. While the Trump numbers are obviously higher than 28 percent, they are not likely at 72 percent since minor party candidates attracted some support.

The highest level of support for Harris among White men in the age segmentation comes both from those in the 36-38 age range and the 74-75 category. She reached approximately 42 percent support with both of these groups. A second low point for her, 31 percent, is found among those in the 58-60 age segment.

The pendulum swing charting the White female vote is almost identical to that of the male category, but the support numbers for Harris were uniformly higher. Still, she is generally underwater even within this female segment. The Harris highwater mark with White women is 51 percent found in the 27-29 age range. The low is 40 percent within the 57-59 age grouping.

Looking at minority voters, we see Trump’s improvement scores comparing his 2024 support performance to that from 2020. The President gained 12 percentage points among self-described moderate Hispanics and eight percent overall. Among Asians, his improvement percentage among the moderates was nine percent and six percent in the overall Asian grouping.

Despite much coverage of Trump’s stronger standing within the Black community, his strongest segment was only a plus two percent among self-described conservative Blacks, and just one percent overall. Comparing his 2016 Black support factor with 2024, we see a greater gap. Matched with his performance from eight years ago, Trump improved eight percentage points with conservative Blacks and an average of four percent within the entire Black voter cell sample.

Within the male People of Color category, the youngest voters perform best for President Trump. Here, the 18-20 age segment recorded only a 50 percent support factor for Harris. The male chart then continues upward until reaching an apex of 70 percent Harris support within the 74-75 year olds before tapering off a few points as the male People of Color voter segment moves into the 80s.

The female People of Color segments, across the board, are Harris’ strongest supporters with little variance. From the youngest to oldest voter segments, the female POC category performed between 72 and 80 percent favorable for Harris.

As we can see, the Trump campaign opened the conversion door for these traditionally Democratic racial and age voter population segments. It is now up to the GOP strategists to see if they can cement these types of numbers for future Republican candidates.