Daily Archives: January 28, 2025

Florida’s Special Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Special Primaries

Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz | Former Florida Rep. Mike Waltz

Electorates in two vacant Florida US House districts will choose nominees today, taking the first step in filling congressional positions related to President Donald Trump selecting certain House members to join his Administration.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz immediately resigned from his 1st District House seat when President Trump announced his nomination for the US Attorney General’s position. Though it quickly became clear that the US Senate would not confirm him to the position, Gaetz still decided to remain on the outside despite winning re-election to the House in November.

Trump also chose 6th District US Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as his National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz was able to resign from the House on Jan. 20 and immediately begin serving in his new position.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, upon the President announcing his appointments, moved quickly to schedule the replacement special elections and combine them on one political calendar. Therefore, despite Waltz being out of Congress for only eight days, the special primaries to replace him and Gaetz are scheduled for today.

The 1st District lies in the western section of Florida’s northern Panhandle and is anchored in the Gulf of America cities of Pensacola, Navarre, Ft. Walton Beach, and many other small beach communities. The 1st is Florida’s safest Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+38. The Down Ballot political blog ranks FL-1 as the 39th safest district in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, the winner of today’s special Republican primary will easily hold the seat in the April 1 special general election.

Vying for the party nomination are 10 candidates, but one stands alone as the clear favorite. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, though a resident of Panama City in the state’s 2nd District, is the definitive leader heading into today’s vote. He enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Gov. DeSantis. He is expected to easily win the primary tonight and join the Congress in April. His strongest initial competitors dropped out of the race once Patronis secured his top endorsements.

Assuming victory tonight, Patronis will then face gun control activist Gay Valimont in the special general election. Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

The situation in the state’s 6th District is just as clear. There, state Sen. Randy Fine is the prohibitive favorite to win today’s special Republican primary. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Scott, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and many more elected area officials. He faces only two minor Republican opponents in today’s election.

The 6th District lies on the Sunshine State’s Atlantic coast and is anchored in the cities of Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast on the eastern shore, along with the inland communities of Belleview and De Land.

FL-6 is slightly less Republican than CD-1 but still rates a R+28 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot statisticians rank FL-6 as the 105th safest Republican House seat.

Three Democrats are vying for the party nomination, but tonight’s winner will be little more than a sacrificial lamb in the April 1 special general election.

Today represents the first step in filling the two Florida US House vacancies. In April, we can expect Patronis and Fine to be joining the body, thus giving Speaker Johnson slightly more partisan leeway for some critical votes later in the congressional session.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn Moving Closer to a Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Further political developments suggest that Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is serious about running for Governor in 2026, and new polling data indicate that she may enjoy an easy path toward attaining the state house mansion in Nashville.

A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be her budding gubernatorial campaign. According to the Fabrizio Lee data (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview and text), Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13 percent margin in an early Republican primary poll.

The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Donald Trump would endorse Blackburn. If so, the spread then becomes 78-11 percent. To underscore Sen. Blackburn’s strength against Rep. Rose, she outpolls him even in the Congressman’s own district. In the 6th CD, Sen. Blackburn would top Rose, 55-27 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Blackburn’s favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.

Furthermore, Sen. Blackburn’s electoral history is strong. She was re-elected to a second Senatorial term on November 5th with a 64-34 percent margin. In 2018, she won her first statewide campaign in a 55-44 percent victory spread. Prior to running for the Senate, Blackburn served eight terms in the House from western Tennessee’s 7th District. In her eight elections, she averaged 73.9 percent of the vote, reaching or breaking the 70 percent threshold in six of her eight campaigns.

Other House members were reportedly looking at the Governor’s race, but Sen. Blackburn’s intentions are likely to dissuade them from running. In addition to Congressman Rose, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) had all been mentioned at one time or another as having an interest in exploring the Governor’s race.

No major potential candidate has officially announced his or her intentions as yet, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to run for Governor until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals about her interest. Her Senate campaign airing post-election thank you ads is even further evidence that Blackburn is clearly heading toward a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

With polling data such as described, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor’s race; and, in clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the governorship, she would be able to appoint her own Senate successor since Tennessee is one of 36 states where the Governor can appoint an individual to fill a Senate vacancy.

If Blackburn were to become Governor and obviously resign from the Senate, her appointed federal designee would serve until the 2028 general election. If the individual wins the special election to fill the balance of the term, he or she would next face the voters in 2030 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.