Daily Archives: April 23, 2024

Senate Democrats’ Big Money

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 23, 2024


The Daily Kos Elections site has released their quarterly fundraising recap depicting the amount that every candidate raised during the first quarter of 2024. The Democrats’ aggregate campaign dollar advantage appears overwhelming.

Today, we look at the US Senate financial picture. For the quarter, the 36 Democratic US Senate candidates raised an aggregate total of $92.18 million, or an average of $2.56 million per candidate. This compares with the $47.89 million cumulatively raised for the 43 Republican candidates. The latter figure calculates to a mean average of $1.11 million per GOP contender.

The top fundraiser for Q1 is Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) who accumulated a whopping $11.68 million. This compares to his Republican general election opponent, businessman Bernie Moreno, who reported $2.14 million in receipts.

For the entire election cycle, however, the candidate raising the most money is Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who records just under a $51.2 million income figure. His cash-on-hand total on March 31, at the end of the first quarter, was $9.4 million. Sen. Cruz’s general election opponent, US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), was the quarter’s fourth-largest Democratic fundraiser at $9.3 million raised. His aggregate campaign to date total is $27.91 million with $10.5 million cash-on-hand.

To get a better picture of how well the candidates are doing on the fundraising front, it is valuable to divide the cumulative fundraising totals by the number of congressional districts in the particular contender’s state, thus putting the candidates on an even footing. Per district, the top fundraiser in a competitive contest is Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D), who has obtained over $32 million for his campaign (cycle-to-date total), which would be equivalent to having $16.26 million per each of the state’s two congressional districts.

Sen. Tester’s opponent, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) would have much less at $3.2 million per CD, which is still a respectable figure.

While using the congressional district division factor, the Texas numbers do not appear as daunting. While Sen. Cruz has already broken the $50 million threshold in cycle-to-date income, the large amount only translates into $1.3 million per the state’s 38 congressional districts. This means Rep. Allred’s $27 million raised translates into an even lesser $719,000 per Lone Star State CD.

While Rep. Allred is the highest Democratic challenger on the fundraising charts, the top Republican is Pennsylvanian David McCormick. He has raised over $11 million cycle-to-date ($647,000 per 17 CDs), but that number includes almost $2 million via a candidate loan. McCormick reports $4.7 million cash-on-hand. His opponent, three-term Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA), has a cycle-to-date income figure of $23.3 million ($1.37 million per CD) with over $11.9 million remaining in his campaign account.

The situation is a little different when looking at the two major party campaign entities, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The latter organization has raised just over $120 million cycle-to-date, while the DSCC total tops $107 million. The Democrats, however, have a cash-on-hand advantage, $41 million to $36.5 million. For the first quarter, the Republican committee outraised their Democratic counterpart, $42 million to $33 million.

In terms of the main outside Super PACs that help the respective party candidates, the Democrats’ entity reports almost a 2:1 gap over the GOP’s main committee. The Senate Majority PAC has raised $122 million for the election cycle compared to the Republicans’ $63.9 million.

While the Democrats hold a major overall advantage in resources, their candidates are forced to play defense. With the party having only a 51-49 majority margin, they must protect 23 of the 34 in-cycle Senate states, while Republicans have little to defend. Therefore, despite likely being outspent across the board in the 2024 campaign cycle, the GOP is still in strong position to capture at least a small majority in the upcoming elections.

RFK Jr. Qualifies in Michigan;
More Candidates in KS-2;
Wisconsin Rep. Gallagher Resigns; Pennsylvania Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 23, 2024


Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Qualifies for Ballot in Michigan — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has obtained ballot position in the critical swing state of Michigan on the Natural Law Party line. The Independent national candidate is also on the ballot in Utah, and his campaign says he will file the requisite number of signatures plus significantly more in Idaho, Iowa, Hawaii, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. His chances of obtaining 4,000 valid signatures in Maine are also strong.

Currently, Kennedy will compete in some critical swing states and could determine the outcome for one of the major party candidates if his vote coalition takes decidedly more votes from President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump. Therefore, we see that his candidacy could tip the electoral vote count in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and the 2nd District of Nebraska. All are expected to produce very close final tallies for the two major party presidential candidates.


KS-2: More Individuals in the Candidate Mix — Potential Kansas congressional candidates continue to contemplate their political moves in response to last week’s surprise retirement announcement from two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka).

Republicans already expressing interest in announcing their candidacies are state House Majority Leader Chris Croft, Leavenworth County Attorney Todd Thompson, and state Sen. Caryn Tyson (R-Parker). Former state attorney general and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt acknowledges that his name is in the mix for the 2nd District but has not yet made a statement regarding intent. State Insurance Commissioner Vicky Schmidt is a possible candidate. Topeka Mayor Michelle de la Isla is mentioned as a potential Democratic contender.

The Kansas candidate filing deadline is June 1. The real action is in the Republican primary as the seat will almost assuredly remain in the GOP column. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21, and Trump carried the district 57-41 percent in the 2020 presidential campaign.

WI-8: Rep. Gallagher (R) Resigns — After staying to vote on the foreign aid bills, Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) officially resigned his seat. His action reduces the total House count to 430, and the Republican majority to 217-213. Gallagher joins former Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Brian Higgins (D-NY), Bill Johnson (R-OH), and Ken Buck (R-CO) who also left the House prior to finishing the current term.

Special elections to fill the balance of the terms will be held in all but Wisconsin. The New York district will be filled April 30, CA-20 on May 21, the OH-6 seat on June 11, and Rep. Buck’s Colorado CD on June 25. Each party is expected to hold the seats of their departing members. If so, when the special election cycles conclude, the Republicans will have 220 seats and the Democrats’ 214.


Pennsylvania: Primary Today — The nation’s only April primary is scheduled for today, and electorates in several key House races will choose nominees. Presidential turnout, as a gauge for voting enthusiasm, will be monitored, while both major party US Senate candidates — Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) — are unopposed in their respective nomination campaigns.

We have several major primaries occurring, one that will seal a seat for the Democratic nominee in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th District, and two more in swing districts that will lead to highly competitive general election races.

Freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pittsburgh) defends against local official Bhavini Patel in District 12. Republicans feature a competitive primary to challenge vulnerable Reps. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), as do Democrats opposite six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg).

Republicans also look to mount strong challenges against Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) and Chris Deluzio (D-Aspinwall). Tomorrow, however, their candidates, businessman Rob Bresnahan and state Rep. Rob Mercuri (R-Pine Richland), face no intraparty opposition.