The Senate Trends

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 14, 2020 — The AARP organization yesterday released a series of polls covering nine Senate races in eight states that help set benchmarks for the most recent data.

AARP contracted with four polling firms, two Republican and two Democratic, and paired each with the opposite party pollster. The Benenson Strategy Group (D) partnered with the GS Strategy Group (R) for surveying Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina.

The Fabrizio Ward firm (R) and Hart Research Associates (D) conducted the joint Colorado, Georgia (both races), Iowa, Maine, and Montana survey research. All of the polls were live interview with large sampling universes of likely voters unless otherwise noted.

Predominantly, the ballot tests find the Democratic candidate typically leading, but with the Republican improving his or her position in comparison to the previously released polling results.

Below are the AARP results followed by the two most recent reported surveys in each state:


ARIZONA
Benenson Strategy/GS Strategy (Aug. 28-Sept. 8; 1,600 likely Arizona voters)
• Mark Kelly (D) – 48%
• Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 45%
Previous:
• Change Research (D) – (Sept. 4-6) – Kelly +6
• Redfield & Wilton Strategies (UK) – (Sept. 30-Aug. 4) – Kelly +15


COLORADO
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (Aug. 30-Sept. 5; 800 likely Colorado voters)
• Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) – 51%
• Sen. Cory Gardner (R) – 46%
Previous:
• Morning Consult – (Aug. 21-30) – Hickenlooper +9
• Public Policy Polling (D) – (Aug. 18-19) – Hickenlooper +9 (voters)


GEORGIA-A
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (Aug. 30-Sept. 5; 800 likely Georgia voters)
• Jon Ossoff (D) – 48%
• Sen. David Perdue (R) – 47%
Previous:
• Public Policy Polling (D) – (Aug. 13-14) – Even (voters)
• Garin Hart Yang Research (D) – (Aug. 10-13) – Ossoff +2


GEORGIA-B
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (Aug. 30-Sept. 5; 800 likely Georgia voters)
• Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – 24%
• Rep. Doug Collins (R) – 20%
• Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) – 19%
• Matt Lieberman (D) – 14%
• Ex-US Attorney Ed Tarver (D) – 7%
Previous:
• Survey USA – (Aug. 6-8) – Loeffler +9; Collins/Warnock tied for second
• HIT Strategies (D) – (July 23-31) – Loeffler +4 over Collins; Collins +4 over Warnock/Lieberman (registered voters)


IOWA
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (Aug. 30-Sept. 5; 800 likely Iowa voters)
• Sen. Joni Ernst (R) – 50%
• Theresa Greenfield (D) – 45%
Previous:
• Public Policy Polling (D) – (Aug. 13-14) – Greenfield +3 (voters)
• Data for Progress (D) – (July 24-Aug. 2) – Greenfield +2


MAINE
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (Aug. 30-Sept. 5; 800 likely Maine voters)
• Speaker Sara Gideon (D) – 44%
• Sen. Susan Collins (R) – 43%
Previous:
• Public Policy Polling (D) – (Aug. 13-14) – Gideon +5 (voters)
• Critical Insights (Maine local) – (July 28-Aug. 9) – Gideon +5


MICHIGAN
Benenson Strategy/GS Strategy (Aug. 28-Sept. 8; 1,600 likely Michigan voters)
• Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 45%
• John James (R) – 41%
Previous:
• Change Research (D) – (Sept. 4-6) – Peters +4
• Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (R) – (Sept. 2-3) – Peters +8


MONTANA
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (Aug. 30-Sept. 5; 800 likely Montana voters)
• Sen. Steve Daines (R) – 50%
• Gov. Steve Bullock (D) – 47%
Previous:
• Emerson College – (7/31-8/3) – Daines +6
• Spry Strategies (R) – (7/11-16) – Daines +3


NORTH CAROLINA
Benenson Strategy/GS Strategy (Aug. 28-Sept. 8; 1,600 likely North Carolina voters)
• Cal Cunningham (D) – 42%
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 39%
Previous:
• Change Research (D) – (Sept. 4-6) – Cunningham +7
• Monmouth University – (Aug. 29-Sept. 1) – Cunningham +1 (registered voters)

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