The best understanding of a political campaign’s status involves analyzing polling trends, rather than individual polls that simply capture the a snapshot of a particular point in time.
Using such a model, we take a look at the key races to determine what the long-term trends may be telling us about the final outcome. According to these trends, even with losses in Kansas and North Carolina, Republicans would likely capture the Senate majority, gaining a net of seven seats, reaching 52 members.
Alaska
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 7
Number of pollsters: 7
Number showing Dan Sullivan (R) leading Sen. Mark Begich (D): 7
Average Sullivan lead: 4.8%
Arkansas
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 7
Number of pollsters: 7
Number showing Tom Cotton (R) leading Sen. Mark Pryor (D): 4
Number showing Sen. Mark Pryor (D) leading Tom Cotton (R): 3
Average Cotton lead: 5.8%
Average Pryor lead: 2.7%
Colorado
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 8
Number of pollsters: 8
Number showing Cory Gardner (R) leading Sen. Mark Udall (D): 7
Number showing Sen. Mark Udall (D) leading Cory Gardner (R): 1
Average Gardner lead: 4.1%
Udall Lead in one poll: 3.0%
Georgia
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 8
Number of pollsters: 6
Number showing David Perdue (R) leading Michelle Nunn (D): 8
Average Perdue lead: 4.1%
Iowa
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 14
Number of pollsters: 12
Number showing Joni Ernst (R) leading Bruce Braley (D): 7
Number showing Bruce Braley (D) leading Joni Ernst (R): 3
Number showing a tie: 4
Average Ernst lead: 4.7%
Average Braley lead: 1.0%
Kansas
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 11
Number of pollsters: 9
Number showing Greg Orman (I) leading Sen. Pat Roberts (R): 7
Number showing Sen. Pat Roberts (R) leading Greg Orman (I): 3
Number showing a tie: 1
Average Orman lead: 6.0%
Average Roberts lead: 2.7%
Kentucky
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 5
Number of pollsters: 5
Number showing Sen. M. McConnell (R) leading A.L. Grimes (D): 3
Number showing A.L. Grimes (D) leading Sen. M. McConnell (R): 2
Average McConnell lead: 6.7%
Average Roberts lead: 2.0%
Louisiana
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 5
Number of pollsters: 5
Number showing Bill Cassidy (R) leading Sen. Mary Landrieu (D): 5
Average Cassidy lead: 5.2%
Michigan
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 14
Number of pollsters: 11
Number showing Rep. Gary Peters (D) leading T.L. Land (R): 14
Average Peters lead: 5.8%
Minnesota
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 4
Number of pollsters: 4
Number showing Sen. Al Franken (D) leading M. McFadden (R): 4
Average Franken lead: 10.0%
New Hampshire
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 10
Number of pollsters: 7
Number showing Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leading S. Brown (R): 9
Number showing S. Brown (R) leading Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D): 1
Average Shaheen lead: 5.2%
Brown lead in one poll: 4.0%
North Carolina
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 13
Number of pollsters: 12
Number showing Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leading Thom Tillis (R): 12
Number showing a tie: 1
Average Hagan lead: 2.8%
South Dakota
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 5
Number of pollsters: 5
Number showing Mike Rounds (R) leading his opponents: 5
Average Rounds lead: 8.4%
