By Jim Ellis
Feb. 12, 2019 — Countering the previously announced National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program targeting list, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their Frontline Program protection listing late last week.
Since the Democrats are now in the House majority, their list is wholly defensive in nature while the Republicans are the minority challengers, a juxtaposition of roles from the past four election cycles. Of the 44 Frontline defense districts, 43 are also GOP Patriot Program targets. The lone exception is Connecticut freshman Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott), a former national Teacher of the Year award winner who won a 56-44 percent victory in her maiden general election campaign.
The targeting organizational programs are important because both official political party apparatuses help the candidates with fundraising, a campaign element where Democrats overwhelmed Republicans in the 2018 election cycle. Therefore, it is likely that the Patriot Program is more important to the previously identified GOP members than the Frontline operation is to the Democratic incumbents, most of whom raised multi-millions in their own right.
Comparing the lists, the 43 top Democratic protection members who are also found on the Republican register could more realistically be narrowed to 27 campaigns that should reasonably be placed in the highest vulnerability category.
In 19 of the 27, President Trump carried the district over Hillary Clinton, and four years earlier Mitt Romney topped President Obama in 17 of the CDs. The Republicans had won all three post-redistricting congressional elections (2012, ’14, ’16) in 22 of the 27 districts prior to the 2018 vote.
Additionally, the isolated campaigns below should be the most competitive 2020 districts because the Republicans have won 75.5 percent of the federal political contests (an aggregate 102 of 135: three congressional races and two presidential apiece, but not counting 2018) since the last redistricting (2011) created the current CD configurations. Therefore …
The 27 most vulnerable Democratic protection races are as follows (the number in parenthesis is the member’s 2018 victory percentage):
- AZ-1 – Tom O’Halleran (54%)
- CA-21 – T.J. Cox (50)
- CA-39 – Gil Cisneros (52)
- CA-45 – Katie Porter (52)
- CA-48 – Harley Rouda (53)
- FL-26 – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (51)
- GA-6 – Lucy McBath (50)
- IL-14 – Lauren Underwood (52)
- IA-1 – Abby Finkenauer (50)
- IA-3 – Cindy Axne (49)
- KS-3 – Sharice Davids (54)
- ME-2 – Jared Golden (50)
- MI-11 – Haley Stevens (52)
- MN-2 – Angie Craig (53)
- NH-1 – Chris Pappas (53)
- NJ-3 – Andy Kim (50)
- NJ-7 – Tom Malinowski (52)
- NM-2 – Xochitl Torres Small (51)
- NY-11 – Max Rose (52)
- NY-19 – Antonio Delgado (50)
- NY-22 – Anthony Brindisi (50)
- OK-5 – Kendra Horn (51)
- SC-1 – Joe Cunningham (51)
- TX-7 – Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (52)
- UT-4 – Ben McAdams (50)
- VA-2 – Elaine Luria (51)
- VA-7 – Abigail Spanberger (50)
In the succeeding 10 districts, Republicans have won every federal race with the lone exception of the 2018 congressional contest. These should be considered the first-level targets. They are:
First-Level Targets
- GA-6 (McBath)
- IL-14 (Underwood)
- MI-11 (Stevens)
- NM-2 (Torres Small)
- NY-22 (Brindisi)
- OK-5 (Horn)
- SC-1 (Cunningham)
- UT-4 (McAdams)
- VA-2 (Luria)
- VA-7 (Spanberger)
Under the present political situation, considering the strength of the new incumbent and the district voting history with particular emphasis on its latest trends, the following
Frontline Democratic Representatives should arguably be considered lesser targets at least for right now:
- CA-10 – Josh Harder (52%)
- CA-25 – Katie Hill (54)
- CA-49 – Mike Levin (56)
- CO-6 – Jason Crow (54)
- IL-6 – Sean Casten (54)
- MI-8 – Elissa Slotkin (51)
- NV-3 – Susie Lee (52)
- NV-4 – Steven Horsford (52)
- NJ-2 – Jeff Van Drew (53)
- NJ-5 – Josh Gottheimer (56)
- NJ-11 – Mikie Sherrill (57)
- PA-7 – Susan Wild (53)
- PA-8 – Matt Cartwright (55)
- PA-17 – Conor Lamb (56)
- TX-32 – Colin Allred (52)
- WA-8 – Kim Schrier (52)
