The Ultimate Upset

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 9, 2016 — Donald Trump once again defied the odds and scored possibly the biggest upset in presidential history. The final count is likely to bring him near 300 electoral votes, almost the opposite position that most predicted.

Trump won 29 states and the 2nd District of Maine. Hillary Clinton took 21 states and the District of Columbia. It is possible that Clinton will still place first in the national popular vote, which will be the second time that has happened in this century. As you might remember, George W. Bush also won the Electoral College in 2000, but not the popular vote.

It will take awhile for the numbers to finalize and clear analysis to begin. Below is a quick re-cap of the Senate and House data.

Senate Results

Republicans held their Senate majority, which could go as high as a total of 53 seats. That would mean they would lose only one seat as long as they win the Louisiana run-off on Dec. 10 (they will be favored to do so) and as long as Sen. Kelly Ayotte hangs on to her small lead in New Hampshire (which now looks unlikely).
• Illinois
Sen. Mark Kirk (R) fell to Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates), 40-54%.
• New Hampshire
Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) leads Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) by a scant 700 votes with counting now at the 100% mark. Nothing yet has been officially declared, however, as of our publishing time. We will have further information later today.

Republicans held the following competitive incumbent races:
• Missouri
Sen. Roy Blunt (R) defeated Secretary of State Jason Kander (D), 49.4–46.2%
• North Carolina
Sen. Richard Burr (R) proved the strongest Republican on Election Day, beating back a strong challenge from former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D), 51.1–45.3%.
• Pennsylvania
Sen. Pat Toomey (R) defeated former gubernatorial chief of staff Katie McGinty (D) 48.9-47.2%
• Wisconsin
Sen. Ron Johnson (R) scored an amazing comeback victory, topping former Senator Russ Feingold (D) 50.2–46.8%

Democrats held three open seats previously held by a Democrat:
• California
Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) easily defeated fellow Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana), 63-37%.
• Maryland
Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Montgomery County) defeated State House Minority Whip Kathy Szeliga (R), 60-36%.
• Nevada
Former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson), 47.1–44.7%

Democrats held seats in these races with their party’s incumbent:
• Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet (49.2–45.7% surprisingly close)
• Connecticut: Sen. Richard Blumenthal
• Hawaii: Sen. Brian Schatz
• New York: Sen. Chuck Schumer
• Oregon: Sen. Ron Wyden
• Vermont: Sen. Patrick Leahy
• Washington: Sen. Patty Murray

Republicans won these open seats previously held by a Democrat:
None

Republicans won these open seats previously held by a Republican:
• Indiana
Rep. Todd Young (R-Bloomington) defeated former senator and governor Evan Bayh (D), 52.2–42.4%, thus retaining the seat of retiring Sen. Dan Coats (R)

This Republican seat will advance to a December 10th run-off election:
• Louisiana: John Kennedy (R) vs. Foster Campbell (D)

Republican-held seats in these races with their party’s incumbent:
• Alabama: Sen. Richard Shelby
• Alaska: Sen. Lisa Murkowski
• Arizona: Sen. John McCain
• Arkansas: Sen. John Boozman
• Florida: Sen. Marco Rubio
• Georgia: Sen. Johnny Isakson
• Idaho: Sen. Mike Crapo
• Iowa: Sen. Chuck Grassley
• Kansas: Sen. Jerry Moran
• Kentucky: Sen. Rand Paul
• Missouri: Sen. Roy Blunt
• North Carolina: Sen. Richard Burr
• North Dakota: Sen. John Hoeven
• Ohio: Sen. Rob Portman
• Oklahoma: Sen. James Lankford
• South Carolina: Sen. Tim Scott
• South Dakota: Sen. John Thune
• Utah: Sen. Mike Lee

US House Results

Key Republican Wins
Republicans may have converted three Democratic seats.
• FL-2: Neil Dunn (R) replaces Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee)
• FL-18: Brian Mast (R) replaces Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter)
• NE-2: Don Bacon (R) remains on a path to unseat Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Omaha), though the race has not been officially called

Republicans held 27 of 30 open GOP seats, with two (LA-3 and LA-4) to be decided in a Dec. 10 run-off election. The LA-3 run-off is a double R campaign.

Key Democratic Wins
Democrats defeated six Republican incumbents:
• FL-7: Stephanie Murphy (D) defeats Rep. John Mica (R-Winter Park)
• FL-13: Charlie Crist (D) unseats Rep. David Jolly (R-Pinellas County)
• IL-10: Ex-Rep. Brad Schneider (D) again unseats Rep. Bob Dold (R-Kenilworth)
• NV-4: Ruben Kihuen (D) defeats Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite)
• NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter (D) defeats Rep. Frank Guinta (R-Manchester)
• NJ-5: Josh Gottheimer (D) defeats Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage)

California races in Districts 7 (Rep. Ami Bera-D vs. Scott Jones-R), 10 (Rep. Jeff Denham-R vs. Michael Eggman-D), 24 (open seat: Salud Carbajal-D) vs. Justin Fareed-R), 25 (Rep. Steve Knight-R vs. Bryan Caforio-D), and 49 (Rep. Darrell Issa-R vs. Doug Applegate-D) will take many days if not weeks to become final because of California’s slow and laborious ballot counting system.

Democrats held 17 of 19 their own open seats

Democrats win three Republican open seats:
• FL-10: Val Demings (D) replaces Rep. Dan Webster (R-Orlando)
• NV-3: Jacky Rosen (D) defeats Danny Tarkanian (R)
• VA-4: St. Sen. Donald McEachin (D) takes the re-drawn 4th District, defeating Henrico County Sheriff Mike Wade (R)

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