Category Archives: Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell’s Retirement Announcement & Its Implications

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 24, 2025

Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Veteran Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the longest-serving Republican leader in party history, officially announced late last week that he will not seek re-election in 2026.

McConnell’s Background — Sen. McConnell had held a GOP leadership position from the beginning of 2003 until the Senate convened this year. The McConnell retirement decision had been expected, especially with potential successors already oiling their campaign machines anticipating an open US Senate contest.

Sen. McConnell was first elected as a Kentucky Senator in 1984 and, upon completion of his current seventh term, will depart tied with the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) as the seventh longest-serving Senator in US history.

After originally unseating then-Sen. Dee Huddleston (D) by just 5,269 votes, Sen. McConnell went on to win six more Senate elections averaging 56.6 percent of the vote against serious competition in most of those campaigns. The Senator became a focal point for Democratic money, which propelled opposition candidates into strong positions.

In 1996, Sen. McConnell defeated Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s father, Steve Beshear, who would later serve two terms as Governor in his own right. Prior to winning the Senate seat, McConnell was twice elected as the Judge-Executive of Jefferson County.

Sen. McConnell, while not considered a compelling national spokesman for the Republican Party, was clearly one of the most effective Senate Leaders in history. He will be particularly noted for his adroit strategies in confirming a multitude of judges during the George W. Bush and Trump presidencies. Though currently at odds with the President of his own party, Sen. McConnell has cast an indelible mark in Senate history throughout his long career in the chamber.

What are the implications of Sen. McConnell’s retirement? — The internal Republican battle to replace the outgoing Senator has been bubbling beneath the political surface and is already transitioning to public warfare. Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) immediately announced for the Senate upon McConnell’s public exiting statement. Two weeks ago, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) indicated that he would run for the Senate should McConnell retire.

Shortly after the Barr declaration, the Club for Growth launched attack ads against the Congressman, obviously in opposition to him for the Senate nomination. Immediately after the McConnell announcement, Rep. Barr hit Cameron as an “embarrassment to President Trump” for losing the 2023 gubernatorial race even when having a Trump endorsement. The Barr forces supported their claim by reiterating that Trump carried Kentucky by 30 percentage points in the November election.

The Democratic leadership will now make a major attempt to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear (D) into the open Senate race. Despite Kentucky being a solid red state in federal races, it is still very competitive, as Beshear has proved, in state contests. The Governor was re-elected in 2023 with 52.5 percent of the vote (over Cameron’s 47.5 percent), after unseating Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in a close 2019 result — 5,136 votes from more than 1.32 million ballots cast.

With the open Kentucky Senate race now officially underway, Blue Grass State Democrats may face the same problem as Georgia Republicans. They both see their own Governor in potentially strong position to compete in, and potentially win, a current Senate race — the Georgia Republican leadership wants Gov. Brian Kemp to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — but the lure of a potential 2028 presidential candidacy makes both Beshear and Kemp so far hesitant to commit to running in 2026.

The McConnell retirement means there will be at least three open Senate seats in the 2026 election. Within the last three weeks, Democratic Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) announced that they would not seek re-election.

While the 2026 map favors the Democrats in that they must only defend 13 seats as opposed to the Republicans’ 22, they now will be forced to spend heavily to support a pair of open seat nominees in Michigan and Minnesota, states that promise to be hot targets.

Thus, the Democratic leadership will be under greater pressure to put the Kentucky Senate seat in play and realistically recruiting Gov. Beshear is their only chance of seriously challenging the Blue Grass Republicans in November of 2026.

Early Senate Campaign Breaks

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025

Senate

While the 2026 Senate map favors the Democrats when examining the ratio of each party’s offensive opportunities — Republicans must defend 22 seats as opposed to just 13 for the Democrats — yet in the early going we see three Democratic states already moving into the vulnerability realm.

It was assumed that both parties would begin the cycle tasked with at least one obvious defensive campaign — North Carolina for the Republicans (Sen. Thom Tillis running for re-election) and Georgia for the Democrats.

Three Peach State polls, all conducted since the first of the year, were recently released. The most current, from Quantas Insights (Feb. 11-13; 800 registered Georgia voters; opt-in online panel), again slotted Gov. Brian Kemp (R) running ahead of first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). According to the ballot test, Gov. Kemp held a 48-45 percent edge.

In the two other polls, the Tyson Group survey (Jan. 30-31; 600 likely Georgia voters; live interview & online panel) posted Gov. Kemp to a 49-42 percent advantage. WPA Intelligence also surveyed the Georgia electorate. This poll, executed in mid-January (Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia general election voters; live interview), also found Gov. Kemp topping Sen. Ossoff and within the same point spread realm. In the WPA study, the margin is six percentage points, 46-40 percent.

In other ballot tests within the same polling questionnaires, Sen. Ossoff was paired with potential Republican candidates other than Gov. Kemp. The Senator led in all instances with a range between eight and 16 percentage points. At this point, Gov. Kemp has not yet confirmed that he will run for the Senate.

Within the past three weeks, two surprising announcements were made that significantly changed the 2026 Senate election cycle. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) unexpectedly announced on Jan. 29 that he would not seek re-election. Two weeks later, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) also declared her intention to retire at the end of the current Congress.

Considering the 2024 Michigan Senate race was decided by just 19,008 votes, and with a Senate and Governor’s race both in open status simultaneously for the first time in the Wolverine State’s modern political era, the 2026 statewide races are expected to be hot targets.

Michigan’s EPIC-MRA polling firm quickly went into the field after the Peters announcement (Feb. 3-8; 600 likely Michigan general election voters) and found former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican 2024 Senate candidate who came within three-tenths of one percentage points of victory, leading former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by a 47-41 percent count. Buttigieg is running substantially ahead of prospective Democratic candidates in early primary polling.

The Minnesota situation is quite different. While we haven’t yet seen any definitive polling, we are witnessing the potential of top Democratic elected officials squaring off against each other to run for the open Senate seat.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the first to declare her candidacy. Gov. Tim Walz, who is eligible to run for a third term, is also expressing interest in the Senate seat. On Tuesday, it was reported in the Down Ballot political blog that Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), giving no indication that she would yield to either Gov. Walz or Lt. Gov. Flanagan, is confirming her interest in possibly becoming a Senate candidate.

Therefore, should this high level multi-candidate Democratic primary develop, such a campaign could become divisive. In an August primary with a short general election cycle, it is probable that the eventual nominee would be more vulnerable than usual in a Minnesota general election campaign.

While other offensive opportunities will certainly open for Senate Democrats in other states, the beginning of this new election cycle has already provided the GOP with some apparent early breaks.

Moving to Replace McConnell

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 17, 2024

Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Veteran Senator and former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has not formally announced his retirement vis-à-vis the next election, but that’s not stopping potential successors from beginning to declare their intent.

Two individuals already saying they are preparing Senate bids are former state Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

Polling to gauge potential Senate candidate political strength is also underway. According to a co/efficient data firm poll conducted in early December but released on Feb. 10 (Dec. 2-3; 1,298 identified Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview & text), Cameron would lead Rep. Barr and former US Ambassador to the United Nations and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft by a 32-16-10-3 percent count. In second place is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/Covington). Massie was tested in the poll but has since stated that he will not run for the Senate.

Another House member not entering an open Senate race is Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), chairman of the House Government Oversight Committee. Comer stated he will seek re-election to the House in 2026, but also indicated he would consider again running for Governor in 2027 when incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In 2015, Comer, then the state’s Commissioner of Agriculture, ran for Governor but lost the Republican primary to future Gov. Matt Bevin by only 83 votes from just over 214,000 ballots cast.

Another potential Republican candidate is wealthy businessman Nate Morris who is reportedly willing to inject a seven figure sum into his campaign. Among those Republicans not inclined to run, at least at this time, are Kentucky state Senate President Robert Stivers (R-Manchester) and state House Speaker David Osborne (R-Prospect).

For the Democrats, Gov. Beshear has previously indicated that he would not run for the Senate if the seat came open, but he will be under heavy pressure to do so. National and state Democratic leaders don’t have a better Kentucky option, and having the two-term Governor as their Senate nominee would certainly put the race in play.

The last time a Blue Grass State Democrat won a Senate election was 1992. Wendell Ford claimed victory that year in what proved to be the last of his four full terms. Prior to Sen. Ford’s retirement in 1999, Democrats held the Class III seat for 54 of the preceding 72 years. Sen. McConnell first won the Class II seat in 1984.

The Democrats’ record in Kentucky gubernatorial elections is much better. Gov. Beshear averaged just 50.8 percent of the vote in his two elections, but that is an improvement over any other Democrat running statewide since the Governor’s father, Steve Beshear, served two terms during the 2007-2015 period.

Should Rep. Barr follow through with his initial plans to run for the Senate, he would leave a Lexington-Fayette County anchored district housing the state’s second largest metropolitan area.

The 6th Congressional District was much more competitive prior to 2021 redistricting and widely considered a swing seat. Now, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight data organization, the seat is rated R+13. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.8R – 46.1D partisan lean, and the Down Ballot political blog staff members rank KY-6 as the 70th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.

Therefore, should Rep. Barr vacate the House seat to run for the Senate, the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to win an open seat contest.

Regardless of the candidate composition, and assuming Sen. McConnell does not seek re-election to an eighth term, we can expect some hotly contested Kentucky campaign efforts to unfold for the May 2026 primary election.

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 14, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D)

Yesterday, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) surprisingly announced that she will retire when the current term expires and not seek re-election in 2026.

Sen. Smith, in an open letter stated that ” … as much as I love my work, I’m fortunate enough to be able to say that my work is only part of what makes up my life. And after two decades of hard, rewarding work in public service, I’m ready to prioritize other things — starting with my family.”

Sen. Smith is the second Senate incumbent, and second Democrat, to forgo re-election in 2026. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) last week announced that he would not stand for a third term. Tina Smith, then Minnesota’s Lieutenant Governor, was appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Al Franken (D) resigned under a scandal cloud. She was elected in her own right in 2020, defeating former Congressman Jason Lewis (R) with a closer than expected 49-44 percent victory margin.

Most likely, the early attention about who might run to succeed Sen. Smith will center around Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. Minnesota has no statewide term limits, and there has already been much discussion as to whether Walz would seek a third term. To date, the Governor has not made public his 2026 political intentions. Now, expect the political conjecture to revolve around whether Gov. Walz will run for the Senate.

Speculation about other potential Democratic contenders will likely include Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) and even possibly former Sen. Franken, among others. It is probable that the Democratic political community will be frozen, however, until Gov. Walz makes a decision regarding his own political future.

The Republican side has less obvious candidates since the party holds no statewide positions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. In fact, the last Republican Senate victory here occurred in 2002 when Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale after the death of Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone less than a month before the November election.

Earlier in the week, Jim Schutz, who lost the 2022 Attorney General race by less than a percentage point, indicated that he would consider a potential gubernatorial bid. With a Senate seat now open, Schultz would have to be considered a possible federal office contender.

Speculation will undoubtedly include the state’s four Republican US Representatives: Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano), Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal), and Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth). It is probable all will remain in their current positions since a statewide run is a well under 50/50 victory proposition for any Republican candidate.

Another GOP name that may surface is that of former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who served from 2003-2011. Still only 64 years old, Pawlenty may be in position for a political comeback.

At the end of the day, the Democrats will be favored to hold the Senate seat, but their statewide victory margins are thinning.

Even with Gov. Walz on the national Democratic ticket, the party’s 2024 Minnesota victory margin dropped to 4.2 percentage points in comparison with the result from the previous four years. In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the state with a 7.1 point spread. The state was closer in 2016. Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump here with only a 1.5 percent margin. In the immediate previous election cycles the Democratic victory result was much larger. President Barack Obama won Minnesota with 7.6 (2012) and 10.3 (2008) percent point spreads.

The Smith retirement now means we can add Minnesota to the list of highly combative 2026 political battleground states.

Pete Buttigieg Leads in Michigan Democratic Primary Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025

Senate

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg / Photo by Matt Johnson

A new Michigan Democratic primary poll suggests that former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the man to beat for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D).

The Blueprint Polling firm tested a likely Michigan Democratic voting segment (Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 536 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; SMS text) and sees Buttigieg topping Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16 percent in a hypothetical 2026 primary poll. Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak Township) all trail “in low single digits,” according to the Blueprint analysis.

Sen. McMorrow is the only individual who has formally announced for the Senate from either party, but the aforementioned have all confirmed they are considering entering the race. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest (D) was included in this poll but last week announced that he will not run for the Senate. He is projected as virtually certain to enter the open Governor’s contest.

Buttigieg has the highest name identification and favorability index of the tested potential contenders within this Democratic sampling universe. He posts 88 percent name recognition with a 77:12 favorable to unfavorable split. Attorney General Nessel is close behind with an 82 percent name recognition score and a similar 72:10 positive index. A total of 56 percent questioned could identify Lt. Gov. Gilcrest, and 45 percent responded with a favorable impression. The remaining potential candidates all had low statewide name ID.

Buttigieg does particularly well with white Democrats (47-16 percent over Nessel), the highly educated (47-15 percent versus Nessel), liberals (47-18 percent against Nessel), and non-union workers (44-14 percent opposite Nessel). The former Transportation Secretary fared poorly with blacks, however, trailing both Nessel and Gilcrest (22-19-16 percent).

Sen. McMorrow and the two Representatives, should either or both enter the statewide race, would have a long way to go in becoming competitive for the nomination. Tested against AG Nessel, Rep. Stevens would even lose her own 11th Congressional District by 15 percentage points, while Rep. Scholten would lead Nessel 28-21 percent in her 3rd CD but trails badly elsewhere. Sen. McMorrow lags seven points behind AG Nessel among those who know and have an opinion of both women.

According to the Blueprint analysis scenarios, Buttigieg would be in an enviable position for the Democratic Party nomination should he become a Senate candidate. The pollsters conclude, “Pete Buttigieg is the overwhelming front-runner. He struggles with Black voters and nearly a third of the electorate remains undecided, but his strength with educated voters and white liberals makes him the odds-on favorite to win the nomination.”

The Blueprint pollsters did not test any of the Democratic candidates against prospective Republican candidates such as former Congressman Mike Rogers, who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state’s other Senate seat in the 2024 election.

With Buttigieg faring poorly with black voters and considering that now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) is more popular than the former Transportation Secretary with the general electorate, it appears Rogers would be in strong position should he mount another attempt in the coming midterm election.

Previously, Republicans as a whole tended to fare better in midterm elections when compared to their presidential year performance, but considering the changing dynamics within the Michigan and national electorates such may no longer be the case. It does appear that the country is entering a realignment phase, but it will take at least two more elections to see if such change becomes a trend or is merely an anomaly found only in 2024.

Irrespective of who becomes the eventual Michigan US Senate nominees, the open Wolverine State race will be one of the top targets for both national parties.

Mississippi’s Sen. Hyde-Smith Favored for Re-Election; DSSC & Primaries; Fine Likely to Replace Waltz in Fla.; A GA-9 Challenge; Conn., NM Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

Senate

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Mississippi — Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2 percent of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026. Sen. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44 percent vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.

DSCC — At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.

House

Florida State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne)

FL-6 — Though not residing in Florida’s vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83 percent support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz left the House to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Sen. Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1 special general election.

CO-8 — Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado’s 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Evans in the 2024 election.

State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.

GA-9 — Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary.

Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56 percent of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74 percent and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.

Governor

Connecticut — New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee. She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.

New Mexico — Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former Interior Secretary and ex-Rep. Deb Haaland the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

Virginia: The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely 2025 Virginia general election voters; live interview & text) and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle. According to the co/efficient data, Spanberger and Earle-Sears would each command 40 percent support.

Virginia Poll Projects Sen. Warner Leading over Gov. Youngkin

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025

Senate

Sen. Mark Warner (D) | Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R)

A recent 2026 political survey projects Sen. Mark Warner (D) posting a seven-point lead over Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in a hypothetical Senate race poll, but methodological flaws are apparent.

The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University conducted the survey, but the sampling period consumed almost a month (Dec. 18, 2024 – Jan. 15, 2025), and the sampling universe was comprised of 806 adults over the age of 18. The sampling period’s length reduces the accuracy figure and not segmenting the ample respondent universe into registered and/or likely voters further skews the data.

The methodology notwithstanding, Sen. Warner would lead Gov. Youngkin 45-38 percent on the ballot test according to VCU, but the Republican leads among Independents 37-16 percent. This suggests that Sen. Warner’s support among Democrats is greater than Gov. Youngkin’s backing among Republicans, but even these numbers are not supported in other similar surveys as detected for the open 2025 Governor’s race.

Furthermore, an incumbent Senator only commanding 16 percent of the Independent voting segment is abnormally low, and likely another reason to question the overall reliability of this VCU survey.

It is also important to note that neither Sen. Warner nor Gov. Youngkin have announced their 2026 Senate candidacy. It is presumed that Sen. Warner will seek a fourth term, but no formal announcement has been made to date. Speculation has been relatively heavy about Youngkin running for the Senate, but the Governor has yet to acknowledge interest in such a race. He is also rumored to be looking toward a 2028 presidential run, and if so, challenging Sen. Warner will not likely be his next political move.

The VCU pollsters also tested the open 2025 Governor’s campaign and find former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, at this point the consensus Democratic presumptive nominee, and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the presumptive Republican nominee posting similar partisan numbers as found in the Senate race.

According to the VCU results, Spanberger would lead the Lieutenant Governor, 44-34 percent. It is here where we can draw a direct comparison with other recent surveys. For example, three other polls conducted during the period beginning Jan. 6-20 reveal much different results.

The most recent survey, from the co/efficient polling firm (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely Virginia voters; live interview & text), sees the two gubernatorial candidates tied at 40 percent apiece.

Christopher Newport University tested the Virginia electorate over the Jan. 6-13 period (806 registered Virginia voters; live interview) and found Spanberger recording a five percentage point advantage, 44-39 percent.

Earlier, Emerson College surveyed the Commonwealth just after the first of the year (Jan. 6-8; 1,000 registered Virginia voters; multiple sampling techniques) and they arrived at a ballot test conclusion similar to co/efficient’s results, with Spanberger edging Earle-Sears, 42-41 percent.

Therefore, the VCU survey conducted of adults and not registered or likely voters, seems to be an outlier because three other polls conducted within the same sampling period with more refined respondent universes project much closer results.

Whether a Warner-Youngkin Senate race materializes remains to be seen. If the contest does form, we can count on seeing a much closer contest than the VCU poll suggests, and one that would likely go down to the wire. The current prevailing wisdom among Virginia politicos, however, is that such a challenge campaign is unlikely to form.

The more likely Senate scenario sees Sen. Warner seeking a fourth term and easily winning re-election without facing a major Republican opponent.