Category Archives: Senate

Three Now Battling for
Louisiana Senate Seat

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 19

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challengers to hold his US Senate seat.

It has been known for some time that Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) was going to face real competition in his fight for renomination this year, but a legitimate three-way race scenario was not often speculated upon.

A series of late February surveys and the most recent Cassidy campaign poll confirm that State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-White House Deputy Chief of Staff John Fleming is a viable Republican Senate candidate. This, even though President Trump has endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) against Sen. Cassidy.

The two-term incumbent is not a Trump favorite because he is one of two GOP Senators on the ballot in 2026 – Maine’s Susan Collins is the other – who voted to impeach President Trump in early 2021 over the January 6 Capitol conflict.

Public Opinion Strategies, surveying for the Cassidy campaign (March 7-10; 500 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview), sees the Senator holding a 35-24-21 percent advantage over Rep. Letlow and Fleming. Testing a Cassidy-Letlow runoff, the incumbent would hold only a 45-43 percent edge. The Cassidy-Fleming runoff possibility was not tested, but it would not be surprising to see a similar preference division.

The February polls, however, show a stronger Fleming standing. The BDPC survey research organization, a bipartisan Louisiana firm, tested the Republican Senate race during the Feb. 21-23 period (600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) and found a closer ballot test result, 28-21-21 percent with Sen. Cassidy leading and Letlow and Fleming tied. According to this survey, Fleming would lead both Cassidy (43-32 percent) and Letlow (36-27 percent) in runoff scenarios.

Quantas Insights and JMC Analytics & Polling also project a three-way race in their February polling.

Quantas (Feb 23-24; 1,428 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online) saw a 34-25-20 percent split with Fleming leading, Rep. Letlow second, and the Senator dropping to third. A Fleming-Letlow runoff was tested and broke 42-32 percent in Fleming’s favor.

JMC Analytics, another regular Louisiana pollster (2/14-16; 645 Louisiana likely Republican primary voters; live interview), found a virtual three-way tie with Mr. Fleming holding a slight 26-25-22 percent lead over Rep. Letlow and Sen. Cassidy.

The renomination road for Sen. Cassidy is more difficult than in his first two elections. The state has moved away from its jungle primary system that featured all candidates on the same ballot in a vote scheduled concurrently with the general election. If a contender received majority support, the individual was elected outright in the one election. If no one attained the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, would advance to an early December runoff election.

In 2024, the legislature and Governor changed the law for federal and some state offices, concluding that their freshmen federal officials were at an organizational disadvantage in Congress because some of their members were joining the body a month after all others. Therefore, the legislative leaders and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) believed that the state was penalizing itself in terms of key committee assignments and in some leadership elections. This, even though the Speaker and Majority Leader both hail from Louisiana.

A reason less talked about for the change is the Senate race. Clearly, the legislators were aware that returning to a partisan primary/runoff system would make re-election much more difficult for Sen. Cassidy, who is viewed as less conservative than the typical Louisiana Republican legislator and primary voter.

Therefore, under the new nomination system, we see a closed primary (voters must be registered party members) scheduled for Saturday, May 16 with a runoff if no one receives majority support calendared for June 27.

Sen. Cassidy is certainly prepared for a tough challenge. He reported over $10.1 million cash-on-hand (COH) at the end of 2025, which is a 4:1 COH advantage over Rep. Letlow, and 5:1 opposite Fleming.

Considering the Trump endorsement for Rep. Letlow and the GOP/MAGA base expressing anti-Cassidy sentiments, the Senator will need every bit of his financial advantage to fight his way through to renomination.

Illinois Senate Senate Democratic
Primary Race Tightens in Week

(VIEWER WARNING: this is the original, unedited, candidate-approved video version straight from Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s official YouTube campaign website. Before you click on this to watch, we must warn you that it contains much unedited profanity.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 13 2026

Senate

The Illinois Senate Democratic primary, which will be determinative in terms of who will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), is scheduled for next Tuesday, and the race is closing tight.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has led the open statewide primary from Day 1 and most polling, but not all, still shows him maintaining at least a small advantage. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has enjoyed strong outside support, which to a degree has checked Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s major campaign fundraising advantage (better than 7:1 over Stratton).

Furthermore, two March Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys find her taking the slightest of leads. Yet, two other surveys still see Rep. Krishnamoorthi holding first place.

The Lieutenant Governor is creating controversy and absorbing push back, however, because of her new ad (shown above) showing various individuals using censored profanity to express their displeasure with President Trump. Therefore, the final week of this campaign is proving interesting.

The most recent PPP poll for Democratic Lieutenant Governors Assn (March 9-10; 700 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) projects Stratton to a 32-30-13 percent advantage over Rep. Krishnamoorthi and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). For a time early in the race, it appeared that Kelly could make this a three-way contest but she has failed to catch fire.

A week earlier, the PPP tracking survey (March 2-3; 577 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) found a similar 33-30 percent Stratton lead. The previous track (Feb. 23-24; 546 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), however, saw Krishnamoorthi ahead by an equivalent 29-27 percent spread.

During the same early March time period, two different pollsters, Tulchin Research and Change Research, continued to detect Krishnamoorthi as the front runner by margins beyond the polling margin of error.

The most recent of these latter polls, from Tulchin (March 4-8, 600 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), sees the Krishnamoorthi margin at a still substantial 39-28 percent. Change Research reported almost identical numbers. According to the CR results (March 3-5; 717 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; online) the spread is 36-26 percent.

The combined surveys tell a conflicting story, but it is important to remember that all of the research studies showing Stratton leading come from one pollster, Public Policy Polling, using a consistent methodology. The studies repeatedly posting Krishnamoorthi to the first position are from seven different pollsters, even including Public Policy Polling, during the early June to late February period.

Considering Krishnamoorthi’s large cash reserves – he disclosed over $6.5 million in the bank through the Feb. 25 Federal Election Commission pre-primary reporting period – one must surmise that most of the money, after a late media blitz is financed, will go toward voter turnout programs.

The Lieutenant Governor’s outside support comes largely from two sources. The first is a Super PAC spending approximately $7 million, which Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and his family largely fund, with the second being the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s Association. It is also presumed that the Pritzker organization and labor unions supporting her effort will be running the major voter turnout programs on the Stratton campaign’s behalf.

Illinois is a plurality primary state, so the candidate attracting the most votes next Tuesday will be victorious irrespective of percentage attained. Therefore, either Rep. Krishnamoorthi or Lt. Gov. Stratton will claim the Democratic nomination on March 17 and then proceed into a long pro forma general election campaign.

With Illinois being one of the strongest Democratic states in the country, the Senate campaign will not be a Republican general election conversion target. Therefore, Tuesday’s winner will coast through to November and take the Senate seat when the new Congress is sworn into office next January and Sen. Durbin exits the political stage after what will be 44 years in Congress.

The Montana Shockwave


Montana Sen. Steve Daines (R) announces his retirement from the Senate.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 9, 2026

Senate

The Treasure State of Montana’s political world experienced a political earthquake at the close of candidate filing the other night when two-term Sen. Steve Daines (R) withdrew his previous re-election candidacy statement and instead announced his retirement.

Having his successor already prepped, US Attorney Kurt Alme (R) then filed for the office just as the deadline was expiring. In addition to Sen. Daines endorsing Alme, the Trump presidential endorsement was also pre-determined. With Alme as the only major Republican filing, his path to the party nomination appears virtually unencumbered.

The Democrats have five announced contenders, but the Montana race is not likely going to attract the type of political financial investment it did in the 2024 election when current Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) unseated now-former Sen. Jon Tester (D). By some counts, including the many independent expenditures on both sides of the ’24 Senate race, the aggregate campaign spending approached an incredible $200 million before a state population of only about 1.2 million people.

Daines now becomes the tenth Senator to retire in this election cycle, making almost one-third of the 2026 Senate races open (10 of 35; 6R – 4D).

Before the Daines announcement, another shoe had dropped. Together the pair of political moves means that half of the Montana federal delegation is leaving office.

Two days earlier, Representative and former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) announced that he would not seek re-election to a third consecutive term from the state’s western, and more politically competitive, 1st Congressional District.

The veteran Representative says he must endure some medical procedures related to long-term injuries sustained from his days as a Navy SEAL, which, though non-life threatening, would require him to be absent from Congress over what will likely be a long recovery period.

Thus Zinke, who returned to the House in 2023 after winning the 2016 and ’18 at-large congressional elections (Montana was awarded a second congressional seat in the 2020 national apportionment), said that western Montana deserves a full-time Representative and will not seek a third consecutive term.

In conjunction with the situation surrounding Sen. Daines’ departure, the Zinke move had obviously been quietly planned for a sustained period. As part of his retirement announcement, the Congressman endorsed radio talk show host Aaron Flint as his successor. The Zinke endorsement of Flint was quickly followed with an equivalent show of support from President Trump proclaiming his “complete and total endorsement” for Flint. Sen. Sheehy also publicly endorsed the new congressional candidate.

Not everyone is on board the Flint bandwagon, however. Montana GOP Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen quickly announced her own candidacy, so we will see some competition in the 1st District Republican primary.

The 1st CD can become competitive. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean is calculated at 50.7R – 46.9D, as compared with 55.1R – 42.6D for the state as a whole. In his two elections from this district, Rep. Zinke averaged just 50.9 percent of the vote. President Trump carried MT-1 with a 54.2 – 42.7 percent spread in 2024 but won the statewide vote with a more robust 58.4 – 38.5 percent victory spread over Kamala Harris.

Zinke’s retirement and Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s (R-Humble) defeat in Tuesday’s primary means there are now 58 open US House seats headed toward the next election, with 34 coming from Republican districts and 19 from the Democratic column, while redistricting in California, Texas, and Utah has created five new seats.

Illinois Senate Race Drawing Closer

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 5, 2026

Senate

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg)

A recent poll reflects movement in the Illinois Democratic US Senate primary after weeks of US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) commanding a large lead.

Public Policy Polling (Feb. 23-24; 546 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) released the results of its survey for the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which supports Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) in her bid for the US Senate. The data still find Rep. Krishnamoorthi posting an advantage in the primary campaign, but his dominance appears dissipating. The PPP results project Krishnamoorthi’s lead dropping to 29-27-13 percent over Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/ Chicago).

Over the course of the Illinois campaign, 15 Democratic polls have been released of the Senate race from seven different pollsters. In the 14 before the latest PPP data was publicized, Krishnamoorthi led in all surveys and averaged 37.2 percent preference. This put his mean average support figure 18.3 percentage points ahead of Lt. Gov. Stratton, who has placed second in all but one of the surveys.

Therefore, it remains to be seen if this PPP survey result proves a harbinger of the closing polls or is an outlier.

A key reason for the Stratton surge is the backing of the Illinois Future PAC, which reports budgeting approximately $10 million on her behalf. More than half of the PAC funding comes from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), his family, and allies. Stratton has been the Governor’s running mate in the past two elections. Prior to gaining her statewide position, she had been elected to one term in the Illinois House of Representatives from a Chicago district.

Rep. Kelly has languished in third place since the beginning, popping up to second in just one survey. It is clear the race is coming down to a choice between Rep. Krishnamoorthi and Lt. Gov. Stratton.

In addition to dominating the early polling, Rep. Krishnamoorthi has also been the race’s top fundraiser; hence, the importance of Pritzker coming through to help Stratton with the Super PAC financing.

For the campaign, as reported to the Federal Election Commission in his year-end disclosure document, Krishnamoorthi had raised $28.5 million, $19.3 million of which he was able to transfer from his US House campaign. The Congressman has been one of the most prolific fundraisers in the House, and his years of accumulating political capital has come to fruition for this Senate race.

Beginning in 2026, Rep. Krishnamoorthi had over $15 million cash on hand. This compares to just $1.1 million for Lt. Gov. Stratton. Again, the importance of the Pritzker-backed Super PAC has allowed her the ability to counter some of Krishnamoorthi’s campaign-long media blitz.

The Illinois’ March 17 primary will feature no runoff election. Therefore, whichever of the 10 candidates has the highest raw number of votes, regardless of percentage attained, will win the primary election. Therefore, we will see a victor on election night.

On the Republican side, former Illinois Republican Party chairman and 2010 Lieutenant Governor candidate Don Tracy has worked himself into the best position to capture the party nomination. The most competitive of his five opponents is attorney Jeannie Evans, but she appears as only a long-shot candidate.

For the general election, the Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the general election as Illinois continues to perform as one of the strongest Democratic states in the nation. The last Republican to win a Land of Lincoln statewide race is former Senator Mark Kirk in 2010. Currently, there is no Republican holding any Illinois statewide elected position.

First Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Voting occurred in the first three primary states yesterday, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. A number of races were decided last night and several are heading to runoffs. Some primary winners are already preparing for tough general election campaigns, while others are celebrating victories tantamount to winning a November electoral contest.

Texas

A huge primary night was held in the Lone Star State, and much more will be written about these races in the days and weeks to come.

In the all-important US Senate race, as expected, Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff election. Though votes remain outstanding, a runoff has clearly been projected. Somewhat surprising to many political observers, Sen. Cornyn ran in first place all evening, and carries a one-point margin over AG Paxton from last night’s tabulations. Both will now advance into the late May runoff election by virtue of both scoring in the low 40s percentile range.

For the Democrats, late last night state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) was declared the victor over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) by just about 160,000 votes with ballots still to count. The Republican runoff winner will now face Talarico in the November election in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive Texas Senate race we will have seen this century.

A total of 20 US House races in Texas saw significant primary action. Below is a quick recap:

Incumbents Losing or Trailing

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) even though the Congressman held a huge financial advantage. The vote tally isn’t yet final, but the margin at this writing is a whopping 57-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Toth will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the general election.

Two other House members trail and could lose their seats. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is 11 percentage points behind former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), but many ballots remain outstanding because of alleged voting irregularities in Dallas County and a delay in closing the polling places. It is possible that Allred could still win the nomination or be forced into a runoff with Rep. Johnson.

Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who many election analysts predicted to lose, may not. He is locked in a tight battle that still could go either way. Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leads by just 654 votes, but with almost one-third of the ballots still uncounted. Additionally, both men are in the high 40s percentile, meaning neither has reached the majority threshold. Therefore, both could still advance to a May 26 runoff election.

Scandal-tainted Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) trails 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera, but both are only in the low 40s percentile range. Therefore, we can expect the two men being forced into another runoff. Two years ago, Rep. Gonzales was renominated over Herrera by only a 354-vote margin in the runoff election.

Outright Winners

The following candidates were declared outright winners last night in contested races and will advance to the general election as their party’s nominee:

In District 8, former America First Policy Institute attorney Jessica Steinmann romped to an easy 68 percent victory in the open Republican primary, which has likely punched her ticket into Congress. The 8th CD is solidly Republican.

In the 10th CD, Republican Chris Gober, who ran the Super PAC operation for Elon Musk, appears to have won the party nomination outright, though all ballots have not yet been tabulated. Assuming he has won the nomination, he will replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) after winning the general election.

Turning to the San Antonio-anchored 21st District, retired Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira recorded a 61 percent victory against 11 opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), who has advanced into an Attorney General’s race runoff against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

Looking at South Texas District 28, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) landed a 58 percent victory and will now defend his seat in November against Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina who easily won the Republican nomination with almost 75 percent of the party vote.

Also, on the Democratic side, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson with a 58 percent total.

In the seat that Rep. Crockett risked to run for the Senate, prominent Dallas mega church pastor Frederick Haynes easily won the Democratic nomination with 74 percent of the vote. This primary win punches his ticket to Washington in the fall.

Facing nine Republican primary opponents, veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) won renomination for a 13th term with just under 60 percent of the vote.

In the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, attorney Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores and six other Republican opponents to claim the party nomination with about a 57 percent vote total. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) was also renominated last night but with a disappointing 62.7 percent total. Expect a tough general election to occur in a district that became more Republican under the new redistricting map.

Two more Republicans, Jace Yarbrough in open District 32 and Jon Bonck in open District 38 are knocking on the door of securing majority support. Both will be prohibitive favorites in the general election if they can secure majority support from last night’s primary.

Run-offs

Texas races where no candidate received majority support, thus necessitating a May 26 runoff election, will occur in new open District 9 (Alexandra Mealer vs. state Rep. Briscoe Cain), open District 19 (agribusinessman Tom Sell and an opponent to be decided in a close battle for second place), and open CD 35 (State Rep. John Lujan-R) and businessman Chris De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen).

Much will be written about these races to recap the primary and cover the runoff elections, but the most extraordinary occurrence last night was the Texas Democrats likely exceeding Republican turnout for the first time in decades.

North Carolina

As expected, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each easily clinched their respective party nominations and will advance to what promises to be one of the premier national US Senate races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come in the general election, Democratic primary turnout was significantly higher than Republicans. In fact, Cooper received over 140,000 more votes than the aggregate GOP total.

In a contest that was predicted to finish close, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/ Chapel Hill) is in a race that is still undecided, though she has a 1,202-vote lead with a small number of outstanding votes. Her Democratic primary challenge was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who received outside support estimated in the seven-figure range.

In the competitive 1st District, 2024 congressional nominee and ex-Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout won a close Republican primary, outlasting Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck by a five percent margin. Buckhout now advances to the general election against Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a much more favorable Republican district than where the two battled two years ago. In the 2024 election, Davis was re-elected with less than a two-point re-election margin. NC-1 now becomes a top national Republican conversion opportunity.

Arkansas

Few incumbents were opposed in the Natural State primary. Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) was the only federal official who even had minor opposition. Rep. Hill was easily renominated with 77 percent of the vote. He will face Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this year’s general election.

All in all, a very exciting 2026 first primary night.

Maine Senate: Platner Dominating

Maine oysterman Graham Platner political ad

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 27, 2026

Senate

A just released University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll (Feb. 12-16; 1,120 likely Maine voters; 478 likely Democratic primary voters; 406 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds oysterman Graham Platner crushing Maine Gov. Janet Mills in the 2026 US Senate Democratic primary contest.

According to the ballot test result, Platner, a Democratic Socialist with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), leads the Governor by a whopping 64-26 percent margin as the two move toward Maine’s June 9 primary election.

Gov. Mills is ineligible to seek a third term as the state’s chief executive, and the national Democratic leadership recruited her into the Senate race. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the national party leaders certainly did not anticipate the ground support that upstart candidate Platner would be enjoying at least in the early going.

Controversy arose surrounding Platner, however, who owns an oyster farm and is an Iraq and Afghan War veteran. Months ago, it became public that he has a chest tattoo that is commonly associated with the Nazis (since covered over). He denied knowing such, but the incident caused at least one campaign staff member to resign and his campaign’s momentum to temporarily halt. He has, however, weathered the storm and is clearly moving into a dominant primary campaign position.

The polls have been spotty. While UNH has always found Platner way ahead of Mills, only three of the last four published surveys show him leading. The Pan Atlantic Research survey, from a firm that frequently polls the Maine electorate (Nov. 29-Dec.7; 318 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; live interview), found Gov. Mills posting a 47-37 percent advantage. Overall, however, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives averages, Platner has an average 20.3 percent advantage over Governor Mills for the length of their testing period.

On the money front, here too Platner enjoys a major advantage. Through the 2025 year-end Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, the oysterman had raised $7.9 million as compared to Gov. Mills’ $2.7 million. He also enjoys a cash-on-hand margin of $3.7 million to the Governor’s $1.3 million. In perspective, Gov. Mills joined the race only in October while Platner initiated his campaign at the beginning of 2025.

The fundraising imbalance has not stopped Gov. Mills from jumping out early with a media buy, however. She largely campaigns against President Trump and promotes her background in her main ad currently running, while Platner contrasts with his “working man” background and pins Mills to the financial elites in his spots.

The Platner momentum could be attributed to his major media buy currently airing, in which the ads place him working at his oyster farm and showing that he understands what it’s like to make a living through hard work and struggling to keep his head above the financial waters, a situation common to many Mainers. At the end of 2024, the state ranked 29th in household income, with a median average of $76,442. Neighboring Massachusetts, at $104,828 per household, is first in the nation.

The UNH poll also tested Platner and Mills individually against incumbent Susan Collins (R). For her part, the Senator recently made her official candidacy announcement and has raised more money than both Platner and Mills. According to the same FEC reporting period filing, Sen. Collins has accumulated $10.2 million for the campaign and holds $8 million in her committee account.

In the UNH poll, Platner posts a 49-38 percent advantage over Collins, but the Senator trails Mills only 41-40 percent. Being behind in polling is nothing new for Sen. Collins. In her 2020 race, which set campaign spending records in the state, she trailed in every published poll during the entire election cycle yet won the election with an eight-point spread over former state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D).

A late January Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey, however, (Jan. 20-24; 800 likely Maine voters; live interview & text) posted Sen. Collins to a pair of one-point, 45-44 percent, leads over both Platner and Gov. Mills.

It is already clear that Susan Collins’ re-election campaign, as it was in 2020, will be one of the premier US Senate contests, particularly considering the Republicans’ need to protect their 53-47 majority. The addition of Platner as a legitimate contender means this race will command national political media attention in the Democratic primary as well as the general election.

Texas Incumbents Who Could Lose

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Texas Races

Multiple Republican seats are in jeopardy in the upcoming Texas primary on March 3.

Knocking on the door of the March 3 Texas primary, we see analyses surfacing predicting that more than one Texas congressional incumbent could lose their renomination battles.

The Senate race has attracted a great deal of attention throughout the early part of the 2026 election cycle. Regarding incumbent John Cornyn’s Republican primary status, his fate will not likely be decided on March 3.

The Senator, on the ballot for a fifth term, is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election likely with Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is also in the race and making positive strides. It is probable, however, that he will fall short of securing one of the two available runoff ballot positions.

For months, large numbers of polls have shown neither Sen. Cornyn nor AG Paxton coming anywhere near the 50 percent plateau in primary ballot test results. In fact, neither has even seriously approached the 40 percent mark at any time after July. Since then, 30 Texas Senate primary campaign polls have been publicly released.

Typically, when an incumbent is forced into a runoff in those states where securing majority support is necessary to win a party nomination, the challenger prevails in the secondary election because a majority of voters had already forced the incumbent below the required victory vote percentage figure.

A Cornyn-Paxton runoff may be different, however. First, Texas now has a long runoff cycle – from March 4 through May 26 – so much can change in a long campaign duration.

Secondly, Sen. Cornyn enjoys a significant campaign resource advantage as evidenced in that AG Paxton is only moderately advertising at the end of the primary period. He is obviously pooling his lesser resources for the runoff. By holding his money, Paxton indicates that he perceives fundraising will be difficult against Cornyn in a one-on-one situation.

And, finally, Paxton has been scandal-ridden in the past, and those negatives will be wholly revisited in the runoff cycle.

Reports suggest that three US House incumbents could lose their renomination battles with an outside possibility of a fourth.

The new redistricting map has forced incumbents Al Green (D-Houston) and newly elected (Jan. 31 special election) Christian Menefee (D-Houston) into a new 18th District. Though 65 percent of the constituency in the new 18th comes from Green’s 9th CD, the polling overwhelmingly suggests that Rep. Menefee is in prime position to win the Democratic primary and do so without a runoff.

Also on the Democratic side, in Dallas County, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) saw her 32nd District turned into a Republican seat that now stretches into East Texas. Because the new seat heavily favors Republicans, Rep. Johnson decided to seek re-election in the new 33rd District, after Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) chose to retire.

The move looked promising for Rep. Johnson until former Representative and 2024 Democratic US Senate nominee Colin Allred suddenly decided to end his announced 2026 Senate campaign and instead filed for District 33. Polling suggests that Allred’s strong name identification and resource advantage will send him back to the US House of Representatives and relegate Rep. Johnson’s congressional service to one term.

Clearly the most bizarre race involves three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio); he too is in danger of failing to win renomination. In 2024, Gonzales, not a favorite among the hard right faction within his sprawling 23rd District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, was forced into a runoff election with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera and he survived by only 354 votes. In the current campaign, not only did Herrera return, but former Congressman Quico Canseco is also in the race.

Rep. Gonzales has been at the forefront of a political storm resulting from a tragic situation where a former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, was alleged to be in an extramarital affair with Gonzales and then committed suicide by lighting herself on fire. As the campaign draws to conclusion, Santos-Aviles’ husband is coming forward to confirm his wife’s affair with Gonzales and accuses the Congressman of abusing his power.

Though the challengers have little in the way of campaign funding, the negative publicity and the closeness of his 2024 renomination campaign makes Rep. Gonzales highly endangered.

Some point to Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) as being another incumbent on the precipice of defeat. His main opponent is state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) who has a strong conservative following. Rep. Crenshaw dominates the resource phase of the campaign, and though Toth has a support base it is unlikely that he will dethrone the Congressman in this primary battle. With four candidates on the ballot, however, moving to a runoff is possible. This is a race to watch on March 3.