Category Archives: Senate

Allred’s Texas Primary Trouble

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

Senate

Former Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) / Photo: ReformAustin.org

Former Congressman Colin Allred ran a strong 2024 Texas US Senate campaign and was one of the nation’s top campaign fundraisers, but a new university survey finds him trailing an entire field of 2026 announced and potential Democratic candidates in the statewide party primary.

The surprising poll result comes from a rather exhaustive study from a pair of Lone Star State universities who partnered in conducting the survey. The academic institutions are the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, and the Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University.

According to the queries asked of a sampling universe of likely Democratic primary voters, Allred’s preference figure ranks behind Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas); former Congressman, ex-presidential and previous Texas statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke; and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin).

Allred and state Rep. Talarico are announced Senate candidates. Both Rep. Crockett and O’Rourke confirm they are considering joining the race. Crockett has intensified her interest in the Senate race after the new Texas redistricting map placed her home outside of the new TX-30 district, while O’Rourke has seemingly appeared less interested about joining the race in recent weeks.

With a March 3 primary schedule, final decisions will soon be made. Considering the kind of polling data we are seeing in this survey, it is plausible that Crockett and maybe even O’Rourke will look more favorably toward entering the Senate race.

The two university survey research teams polled 1,650 YouGov respondents between Sept. 19 and Oct. 1. The sampling universe was then winnowed to include 478 likely Democratic primary voters and 576 likely Republican primary voters. The pollsters do not indicate the method in which the interviews were conducted.

The large sample size, and the fact that they used the online pollster YouGov’s pre-identified respondents, suggest the poll was administered online. The notation, however, that the interviews were conducted in English and Spanish leads one to believe that the data responses were from live interviews. A combination of the two methodologies is also possible.

The Republican ballot test — understanding that this poll was conducted prior to Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) officially becoming a GOP Senate candidate — adds little new information. The addition of Hunt leads to the conclusion that the Republican primary will produce two runoff participants, likely Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. This university data fails to suggest otherwise.

The interesting information comes from the Democratic responses. While Allred was commonly viewed as the leading 2026 Democratic Senate candidate based upon his 2024 performance where he raised almost $95 million and ran close to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in polling until the closing days, the university survey’s likely Democratic voter base unexpectedly places him at the bottom of the list.

According to the ballot test results, Rep. Crockett leads state Rep. Talarico, former Congressman O’Rourke, and Mr. Allred, 31-25-25-13 percent.

To make matters worse for Allred, he also does very poorly when the likely Democratic respondent pool was segmented. Among, men, women, whites, Latinos, Baby Boomers, Gen-X, Gen-Z, those with some college, those with an advanced graduate degree, those who self-identify as Democrats, and those who consider themselves Independent but will vote in the coming Democratic primary, Allred places last among the candidates and potential candidates.

Only among blacks and those with a high school degree does Allred finish either tied or ahead of one of the others. Among blacks, Allred and O’Rourke are tied at 16 percent preference. State Rep. Talarico draws 17 percent, and Rep. Crockett leads the group with 45 percent support. In the high school graduate segment, Allred nips Talarico, 15-14 percent. Crockett leads within this segment with 33 percent followed by O’Rourke’s 31 percent preference figure.

While the recent entrance of Rep. Hunt has attracted greater attention to the Republican side of the ’26 Senate race, this new university poll finding Colin Allred dropping to last place within a Democratic likely voter pool could be the precursor to seeing a trajectory change within the party primary.

Gov. Mills Announces … Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), after a premature social media Senate announcement message over the weekend was pulled back, yesterday formally declared her intention to challenge veteran Sen. Susan Collins (R). The Governor was Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top choice to challenge Sen. Collins who overcame a massive attack campaign in 2020 to secure a fifth term.

Sen. Collins was first elected in 1996 and has announced plans to run again for a sixth term next year. Gov. Mills was elected in 2018, re-elected four years later, and is ineligible to seek a third term under the state’s election system.

In 2020, the Democrats and their candidate, then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon, spent over $60 million against Sen. Collins in a state of just over a million people. In fact, Gideon had so much money that her campaign coffers still possessed more than $9 million after the election. Under criticism from Democrats because she had so much money left over, the party nominee explained “there was simply nothing left to buy” as hundreds of thousands of dollars flowed into her campaign coffers from all over the country during the 2020 campaign’s last week.

Though every poll but one showed Gideon winning, Sen. Collins went on to score what had to be considered an upset win despite her long-term incumbency with a 50-42 percent victory margin.

Gov. Mills averaged 53.3 percent of the vote in her two victorious gubernatorial elections, which includes her 55.7 – 42.4 percent re-election victory over former two-term Republican Governor Paul LePage. The ex-state chief executive is now running for the US House in the state’s northern district. Before serving as Governor, Mills was a state legislative-appointed Attorney General, a state legislator, and a former local county district attorney.

While Sen. Collins’ age (she will be 73 at the time of the next election) might be an issue in other states as candidates prepare for the 2026 midterm elections, it will not be a factor in the Maine Senate race. Gov. Mills herself will be 78 years old at the time of the November 2026 election.

Gov. Mills began her campaign with the typical attacks levied against Republicans, saying they are cutting Medicaid so the wealthiest can have tax breaks, and “threatening democracy.” The Governor, however, is saddled with at least two major negatives of her own that will be front and center in the Collins campaign arsenal, added to a national GOP attack theme.

As we remember, Gov. Mills attracted national attention by defying President Trump over the “men in women’s sports” issue. Even in Maine, the Mills position favoring transgenders participating in women’s sports polls negatively. She also promoted an energy transmission issue that her opponents said favored Massachusetts to Maine’s detriment. The associated ballot initiative she supported was subsequently soundly defeated.

Today, Maine’s political campaigns are clearly defined. The state has two congressional districts, which are politically opposite. The southern 1st District that includes the state’s largest metropolitan area of Portland, is heavily Democratic. The northern 2nd District, which begins in the Lewiston-Auburn area and moves all the way to Canada, features the most Republican electorate in the country that sends a Democrat to the House.

Statewide, Democrats win by securing a larger majority in the 1st District than Republicans record in the 2nd. Sen. Collins habitually wins by running up her positive vote total in the 2nd District and reducing her margin of defeat in the 1st. As the political polarization grows nationally and in Maine, the 1st becomes more Democratic and the 2nd more Republican.

With former Gov. LePage running unopposed for the GOP congressional nomination in District 2, thus uniting the party behind his candidacy, Republican turnout in the general election could be spurred.

In LePage’s three gubernatorial elections, including his landslide loss to Mills, he carried the 2nd District, and he currently is the most prolific fundraiser among all Republican congressional challengers. His race against four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) promises to be close and could arguably be the Republicans’ best national US House conversion opportunity.

While the Democrats are successful in recruiting their top Maine Senate prospect, we can expect another brutal campaign to begin in the Pine Tree State. Heading into the election year, the Maine Senate campaign must be rated as a toss-up. Expect the polling to favor Mills, as it consistently favored the Democratic nominee in 2020, but history shows that the Republican turnout typically well exceeds projected polling results.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy’s
Growing Primary Challengers

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

Senate

Louisiana US Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

Louisiana US Sen. Bill Cassidy has drawn another Republican primary opponent. While it appears that his most serious potential challengers continue to remain on the political sidelines, such may soon change.

Late last week, St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden announced that she will join the growing group of Cassidy primary opponents. Already in the race are State Treasurer, ex-Deputy White House chief of staff, and former US Congressman John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) continues to dangle the possibility of her entering the race. If she decides not to become a statewide candidate, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of the Louisiana House Ways & Means Committee and a partner in the Trafalgar Group polling firm, is likely to come forth.

Late last year, the legislature and Governor changed Louisiana’s election system. Instead of a jungle primary for federal races, the state returns to a partisan primary format. Therefore, the new primaries are scheduled for April 18. If no candidate secures majority support in the initial election, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on May 30.

Louisiana became the first state to initiate the jungle primary process and did so in 1975. Then, the state held a September primary and if a candidate received majority support in that initial vote, he or she was elected outright and did not proceed to the November general election.

After a US Justice Department inquiry and subsequent ruling, Louisiana was forced to hold a general election for all offices in order to comply with federal law. The Bayou State leaders then moved their jungle primary to the national election day and scheduled an early December runoff for any race where no candidate obtained majority support.

When Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was elected in 2023, one of his first legislative initiatives was to urge the legislature to reinstitute the partisan primary system. The eventual compromise measure, which was enacted, created the new primary for federal offices and some state contests, but left in place the November/December system for others.

As a former member of Congress, Gov. Landry made the argument that the state was punishing its new members because much happens in terms of assigning important committee posts and choosing leadership positions soon after the general election. Often, the leadership elections and administrative processes concluded even before a new Louisiana member won the right to come to Washington.

Therefore, Landry and others argued, and the legislature agreed, the election system was relegating their delegation to an adverse position particularly with regard to committee assignments.

The new partisan primary system appears detrimental to Sen. Cassidy. As one of the few Republican Senators to support impeaching President Trump over the January 6 protest at the Capitol, Sen. Cassidy now becomes more vulnerable in a partisan Republican primary next April than he would have been in a jungle election 13 months from now.

It is highly unlikely that Cassidy will receive a Trump endorsement in a crowded primary, especially when it is not clear that the incumbent would prevail. The Trump endorsement has proven very strong for candidates especially when the President is on the ballot. The success record for those receiving the presidential stamp of approval is somewhat less positive in an off-year election, however.

Louisiana Treasurer Fleming was elected to his statewide post in November. Previously, he served four terms representing the 4th Congressional District, immediately preceding now House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). After running unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2016, President Trump appointed Fleming as an Assistant Secretary for the Department of Commerce, and the former Congressman then became Deputy White House chief of staff toward the end of the first Trump Administration.

Though he has a long relationship with the President, Fleming has yet to catch fire in his Senate primary against Sen. Cassidy. He has put $2 million into his campaign but seems to remove it once the quarterly campaign financial disclosure period ends. Therefore, it is unclear if he is serious about spending his own money for the Senate campaign.

Clearly, Rep. Letlow or state Rep. Emerson will prove to be Sen. Cassidy’s most viable opponents. It is unlikely that both will enter the race, thus making the one who does an even stronger candidate.

With the Louisiana deadline for candidates to file nominating petitions fast approaching on Dec. 17, final decisions about entering the 2026 Senate race will soon be made.

The Louisiana Senate race will certainly be a campaign to watch early in the election cycle. From the Cassidy perspective, winning renomination outright in April becomes of high importance. Being forced into a runoff election, meaning a majority of the voters will have chosen someone other than the incumbent, would suggest political doom for the two-term Senator.

WEEKLY POLITICAL WRAP-UP:
PERIOD ENDING Oct. 10, 2025

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

Senate

Kentucky Senate challenger Amy McGrath (D)

Kentucky — Marine Corps veteran Amy McGrath, who proved her fundraising prowess in two unsuccessful political races, announced that she will enter the 2026 Kentucky US Senate race. Her previous losses were to Congressman Andy Barr, who may well again be her opponent in next year’s Senate general election, and Sen. Mitch McConnell.

According to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, McGrath raised over $94 million for her two campaigns. She lost a close race to Rep. Barr, and in a landslide to Sen. McConnell.

Louisiana — Sen. Bill Cassidy has drawn another Republican primary opponent. St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden announced last week that she will join the growing group of Cassidy primary opponents. In the race are State Treasurer and former US Congressman John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) continues to dangle the possibility of her entering the race. If she decides not to become a candidate, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of the Louisiana House Ways & Means Committee, is likely to enter.

House

CA-45 — Since former Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has decided not to seek a rematch in 2026 against freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange), Republicans may have found a new candidate. Former Cerritos City Councilman Chuong Vo announced that he will enter the 2026 race to challenge the new Congressman. Should the California redistricting map receive majority vote in the Nov. 4 special election, the 45th would move several points closer to the Democratic side but would still be a competitive seat. Vo says he will run regardless of the redistricting outcome.

IL-2 — Former nine-term Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) announced that he will attempt a political comeback in his former district. Jackson resigned from the House in 2012 after pleading to misusing $750,000 in congressional and campaign funds. He would spend 18 months in federal prison. In a crowded open Democratic field, Jackson will likely become the favorite to win the Democratic primary and then the seat next year. The 2nd District is open because incumbent Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) is running for US Senate. Jackson’s brother, Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago), currently represents the 1st Congressional District.

MD-7 — Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway (D) filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission suggesting that he may challenge veteran Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore). Rep. Mfume was first elected to the House in 1986 but left Congress to head the NAACP in 1996. He returned to the House in the 2020 election.

Prior to his service in Congress, Mfume spent eight years on the Baltimore City Council. It remains to be seen whether Conway is preparing a primary challenge or readying a congressional committee in case Congressman Mfume decides to retire.

MO-1 — Former Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush (D), who was defeated in the 2024 Democratic primary, announced that she will attempt a political comeback. Bush declared that she will return for a rematch with freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis), who defeated her 51-46 percent in the previous Democratic primary.

The 1st District is largely unchanged in the new Missouri redistricting map, so we will see a rerun of the 2024 campaign. In ’24, Rep. Bell went onto score a 76 percent win in the general election. During her two terms in the House, Bush was a member of the informal Democratic Socialist “Squad” caucus.

NH-2 — Democratic state Representative Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) announced that she will challenge freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) in next year’s September Democratic primary. Beauchemin, who won her state position in 2022, says she will run a campaign based upon a “message of radical empathy and grassroots energy.” Rep. Goodlander will be a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election in 2026.

NY-19 — In a seat that has swung back and forth between Democratic and Republican representation in the US House, freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-Ithaca), who defeated then-Rep. Marc Molinaro (R), sees a new Republican announcing his candidacy. In what promises to be a competitive race, state Sen. Peter Oberacker (R-Schenevus) stated that he will join the 2026 congressional campaign. We can expect this race to become a national congressional campaign that is expensive and highly competitive.

TN-9 — Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson (D-Memphis) this week announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) who, as a white male, has held the majority black district since the 2006 election. Prior to his service in Congress, Rep. Cohen served 24 years in the Tennessee state Senate. This is another Democratic primary situation where a young challenger – Rep. Pearson is 30 years old – is challenging an older veteran incumbent. Rep. Cohen is 76 years old. This race can become highly competitive.

Governor

Alaska — Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R), who was defeated for re-election to a second term, has entered the 2026 open Governor’s race. He becomes the 10th Republican vying for the party nomination. The group includes Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and ex-appointed Attorney General Treg Taylor. Sen. Lisa Murkowski also has not publicly ruled out joining the campaign. On the Democratic side, former state Sen. Tom Begich is the only announced candidate. Begich, however, says he will withdraw if former Rep. Mary Peltola decides to enter. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Maine — Health care company executive Jonathan Bush, cousin to former President George W. Bush, announced that he is joining the crowded open Governor’s candidate field. Bush is now the seventh Republican to announce his or her candidacy. Democrats have five contenders, along with three Independents. Gov. Janet Mills (D) cannot succeed herself under Maine’s term limit law. She is expected to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) next year.

New Jersey — Despite considerable negative publicity for Democratic nominee and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) over her stock transactions and Naval Academy cheating scandal controversy, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds her still leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The PPP results (Oct. 2-3; 703 registered New Jersey voters; text and live interview) see Sherrill posting a 49-43 percent advantage. Other polls show the Sherrill lead between two and eight points. It is probable the race is close. Ciattarelli has substantially under-polled in his previous statewide campaigns based upon the actual result. This will be an interesting race in the campaign’s final month as the candidates stream toward the Nov. 4 election date.

New York — After several polls had shown Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) posting large polling leads over presumed GOP candidate and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), an extensive Grayhouse firm survey (Sept. 20-26; 1,250 likely New York voters; 750 text-to-web; 500 live interview; 605 likely New York Democratic primary voters) sees a much closer ballot test result. According to Grayhouse, Gov. Hochul’s lead is just 48-43 percent over Rep. Stefanik.

This data also shows a tightening of the Democratic primary, though Gov. Hochul maintains a sizable lead. The ballot test for this cell segment shows the Governor’s advantage at 43-14 percent over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.

Rhode Island — After toying with the idea of challenging Democratic Gov. Dan McKee in the party primary, term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha announced that he will not enter the statewide race.

At this point, the Governor’s principal Democratic challenger is his 2022 opponent, former corporate CEO Helena Foulkes. State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) is also reportedly still considering a gubernatorial bid. The Rhode Island primary is not until Sept. 8, so much time remains for this race to gel. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to clinching the Governorship.

South Carolina — A new poll suggests the open South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary has a new leader, and it is not any of the more established political names.

The Trafalgar Group just released a new October poll for the South Carolina Republican primary (Sept. 30-Oct. 2; 1,094 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the race’s top finisher is Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. From these results, Evette edges Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Attorney General Alan Wilson, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), 20-16-12-9-1 percent, respectively with an undecided percentage of 41. All figures are rounded to the highest number.

Wisconsin — Ending speculation about whether he would enter the open Governor’s race, state Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) announced that he will seek re-election to a third term rather than enter what will be a highly competitive open campaign. The Democratic gubernatorial primary field already features Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former state cabinet secretary Missy Hughes, and two state legislators. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not seeking a third term.

Rep. Hunt Enters Texas Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025

Senate

As has been speculated upon for months, two-term US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) officially entered the 2026 Republican US Senate primary in Texas. He joins a campaign that has been active for almost a year between GOP principal participants, Sen. John Cornyn, the four-term incumbent, and three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Though Rep. Hunt only became an official candidate this week, a Super PAC supporting him has already spent an estimated $6 million, according to a Texas Tribune news story, to positively promote him around the state. The advertisements were run in media markets throughout Texas with the exception of Houston, from where the Congressman resides and represents.

In his announcement address, Rep. Hunt basically outlined his campaign strategy. A comment from his speech is indicative of how he intends to conduct his effort. Hunt said, “the US Senate race in Texas must be about more than a petty feud between two men who have spent months trading barbs. With my candidacy, this race will finally be about what’s most important: Texas.”

Assuming he follows through on his rhetoric, Rep. Hunt’s strategy will be to bunch Cornyn and Paxton together as if they are one, and campaign against the pair as a singular negative unit. He hopes to feed the fires of negative campaigning between the two men, and then come from the outside as a positive alternative. This approach has worked in many competitive multi-candidate campaigns when two contenders begin to attack each other, thus leaving a lane open for a third credible person to become a positive alternative.

Realistically, the Hunt for Senate campaign, which obviously has outside financial support and at least $3 million in his congressional campaign account that is fully transferrable to a Senate campaign, is most likely to deny either Cornyn or Paxton the opportunity of reaching the 50 percent mark to clinch the March 3 Republican primary. This means the two would advance to a runoff election on May 26.

Early three-way polling suggests the runoff scenario is likely. Nine polls from eight different pollsters have been conducted of the Texas Senate Republican primary that included all three individuals. Two organizations, Real Clear Politics and Decision Desk HQ, have averaged all the poll results and consistently find Hunt well behind in third place.

The Real Clear Politics average finds Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn 36.7 to 32.7 percent with Rep. Hunt capturing 19.0 percent support. Decision Desk HQ sees a closer battle between Cornyn and Paxton, 37.0 to 36.3 percent, respectively, with Hunt bunched together with the Other/Undecided option for a total support factor of 26.7 percent.

In the underlying polls that comprise the DDHQ average, the undecided percentage is running equivalent to Hunt’s support figure, so it would be reasonable to project the Congressman’s total at approximately 14 percent.

Therefore, at the campaign’s early juncture, the preponderance of polling data suggests that Hunt’s entry forces a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.

With Rep. Hunt having entered the Senate race, it also means his 38th District US House seat will come open. There are temporarily 34 open House seats, including two vacancies being filled in special elections later this year.

Of the 34, a total of 21 are now in Republican-held districts versus just 10 from the Democratic side. The Texas redistricting plan created three new open seats in previously non-existent districts. Rep. Hunt not running again for the House means that at least eight of Texas’ 38 congressional seats will be open in the next election.

The 38th District is fully contained within the central portion of Harris County under the new configuration. According to the updated partisan lean figures from Dave’s Redistricting App, the new 38th carries a 60.5R – 37.4D voting history calculation. Therefore, we can expect a crowded and competitive Republican primary here, with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the prohibitive favorite to clinch the general election.

Returning to the national open House seat count, from the 29 open districts around the country (the number excludes those created in redistricting (three) or where a member passed away or resigned from office (two), 11 Representatives are leaving the House to run for Senate, 10 are running for Governor in their respective state, one is competing for another statewide office (Attorney General of Texas), and seven are retiring from elective politics.

New Pappas-Sununu Data

Click on image to see full poll results.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

Senate

The University of New Hampshire just released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open New Hampshire US Senate contest between Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

The UNH poll (Sept. 17-23; 1,361 New Hampshire adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Pappas leading a ballot test question with ex-Sen. Sununu 49-43 percent, but the sampling universe leans more Democratic than the actual voting data suggests. Therefore, it is likely that Sununu is a bit closer to Pappas than this spread foretells.

If ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who ran for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2014 and lost to now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51-48 percent, were the 2026 Republican nominee the Pappas lead would grow to 52-37 percent. On the current Republican Senate primary ballot test, Sununu posts a landslide lead over Brown, 42-19 percent.

Several data points provide evidence that the poll skews somewhat Democratic, though the answers have been weighted to balance the responses, at least to a degree.

The skew clues come from several questions. In terms of setting the sampling parameters, the official state voter registration party preference categorization totals 32.0 percent Republican, 28.3 percent Democratic, and 39.7 percent Unaffiliated voters. Total registration is recorded at 1,099,033 individuals.

The UNH poll divides the party identification categories into two different questions. First, is the partisan-registered voter query, and this number is consistent with the official state voter reg totals. In the poll, the self-identified partisan total is 32-29-39 percent Republican, Democratic, and Unaffiliated voters.

A second “Party ID” cell segmentation, however, asks an additional question, and the responses swing toward the Democrats with a 44-41-14 percent partisan division (Democratic; Republican; Unaffiliated). It is surmised that the pollsters are attempting to see how the unaffiliateds break, which explains the partisan switch and the severe reduction from the actual number of Unaffiliated registered voters (39 percent) to those who self-identify as Unaffiliated (14 percent).

Such a partisan break is seemingly consistent with New Hampshire’s federal election results even though the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations suggest a very different pattern.

In terms of the statewide partisan lean, DRA calculates a 52.0R – 45.2D party break. While the federal delegation (two Senators, two Representatives) is unanimously Democratic, the Republicans back home enjoy a statewide trifecta (Governor; majorities in both legislative houses). Thus, the voting split between federal and state offices is diametrically opposed. Together, these points largely explain the high number of close elections seen in the state over the past few years.

Perhaps the most definitive skew clue is the reported presidential vote within the polling sample. In the 2024 election, the actual vote count found then-Vice President Kamala Harris defeating then-former President Donald Trump with a 50.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin.

According to the poll respondents the presidential break is 51-45 percent in Harris’s favor; hence, these calculations suggest the 49-43 percent Pappas swing is potentially 2-3 percentage points closer.

Rep. Pappas was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving six years on the New Hampshire Executive Council [a unique five-member panel elected in districts that retains certain veto powers over the Governor relating to budget matters and personnel appointments], four years as Hillsborough (Manchester) County Treasurer, and four years in the state House of Representatives.

Pappas, in his four US House terms, has turned what was the most volatile congressional district in the United States (from 2004 thru 2016, NH-1 had defeated more incumbents that any CD in the country), into a safe domain for himself, thus bringing some political stabilization to the eastern New Hampshire area.

John E. Sununu was elected to the 1st District US House seat in 1996 and held the position for three terms. He was elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating then-Gov. Shaheen. Six years later, Shaheen returned to challenge Sen. Sununu, and successfully unseated him. She, of course, was then re-elected in 2014 and 2020.

Assuming Sununu enters the 2026 US Senate race, and all indications suggest he will, the New Hampshire open seat moves into the highly competitive category. Without Sununu as the GOP nominee, Rep. Pappas, who adroitly has positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate long before the state’s late September 8th primary, would see a clear path toward succeeding Sen. Shaheen.

Weekly Political Wrap-Up:
Period Ending Sept. 26, 2025

Kansas US Congressional Districts / Click on map above, or go to govtrack.us to see interactive map.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

Senate

Kansas — The Republicans in the Kansas legislature are determining if they will call for a special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional map. The Republicans have a veto-proof majority in both chambers, so they would theoretically be able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto regarding map passage. A two-thirds vote of both houses is also required to call a special session. The GOP has the numbers, but their margin is very tight. Therefore, the situation is uncertain.

If the Republicans’ redistricting plan is successful and the lone Kansas Democratic US House member, Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park), is targeted and her 3rd CD made unwinnable for her party, the Congresswoman will forgo re-election and instead challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year.

Alabama — A former White House aide and ex-military advisor to Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has entered the state’s open Senate race. Morgan Murphy now joins Attorney General Steve Marshall and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in vying for the Republican nomination. The eventual winner is a virtual sure bet to replace Sen. Tuberville who is running for Governor instead of for re-election.

Additionally, recently retired Auburn University men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl ended speculation that he would run for the Senate with an announcement of non-candidacy.

Massachusetts — Last week, Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) said he would not challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) for renomination, but the door has apparently opened for two other House delegation members to potentially launch such a challenge. Both Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) each said they are now considering forging a Democratic primary against the Senator. Much time remains because Massachusetts has one of the latest primaries in the nation. In 2026, the Massachusetts primary vote is scheduled for Sept. 15.

New Hampshire — A new co/efficient survey (Sept. 10-12; 904 likely New Hampshire general election voters; 346 Republican primary likely voters; live interview & text) confirms that former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) entering the open New Hampshire Senate race would make the general election very competitive. According to the co/efficient ballot test, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) would lead Sununu, 46-43 percent, a virtual tie. In a Republican primary ballot test, Sununu tops former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, 40-23 percent.

Sununu was elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving three terms in the House. He defeated then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to win the Senate seat. Six years later, Shaheen returned for a re-match and unseated Sen. Sununu in the first Obama presidential election year. She won two further terms and is retiring once this Congress ends. Sununu has not been on the ballot since losing his 2008 re-election campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) has drawn a Republican opponent. While talk about Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) challenging the Senator has dissipated, state Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Fredericksburg) has now become an official candidate. The state legislator has twice run for a different office — Lieutenant Governor and the US House, but failed both times to secure the party nomination. Sen. Warner will be favored to win a fourth term next year.

House

TX-29 — Former Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson (D) said publicly that he is considering challenging Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) in the new version of the 29th District. Only 37 percent of the current 29th is in the new 29th, so Rep. Garcia’s incumbency factor would be lessened in such a Democratic primary race. The Houston-anchored seat is still solidly Democratic, so the serious action will occur in the March 3 primary.

TX-32 — Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, who in 2023 left the Democratic Party and became a Republican, confirmed he is considering entering the newly created 32nd Congressional District that covers part of Dallas before stretching into east Texas. Current incumbent Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is most likely to seek re-election in the Democratic 33rd CD as opposed to what will become a Republican 32nd District. Before winning election as Mayor, Johnson served four terms in the state House of Representatives as a Democrat. He is ineligible to seek a third term as Mayor in 2027.

Governor

California — A surprising California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) was released during the week providing bad news to Sen. Alex Padilla (D). The Senator is reportedly considering entering the open Governor’s race.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only a 16 percent preference figure. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote, former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (8 percent). Sen. Alex Padilla (D) is next posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator.

Another gubernatorial entry has emerged. Former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (D) announced that he will join the crowded Governor’s primary calling for “a new generation of leadership.” Calderon is 40 years of age. The former four-term Assemblyman’s father, Charles Calderon (D), served in the state Senate and Assembly. He was elected Majority Leader in both chambers during his legislative career.

Minnesota — While Gov. Tim Walz (D) is now officially running for a third term, a new poll suggests he is in a battle for re-election. SurveyUSA, polling for Twin Cities television station KSTP (Sept. 15-18; 568 likely Minnesota voters) finds former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen (R) trailing Gov. Walz by only a 46-41 percent margin.

The poll results also found Gov. Walz with a 47:47 percent job approval rating that features only 20 percent strongly approving and 34 percent strongly disapproving. The Governor and former Vice-Presidential nominee also fares poorly in southern Minnesota, a region he represented in the US House, and with Independents. Thus, the early polling suggests the 2026 Minnesota Governor’s race will be in the competitive realm.

Oklahoma — State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters (R), who has had a controversial tenure but is a champion of the Republican Party’s right flank, announced his resignation to accept a job running a non-profit education organization. He was considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. The move is a boon to Attorney General Gentner Drummond who appears to be the leading GOP candidate for the party nomination. Becoming the Republican standard bearer is tantamount to winning the general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Virginia — A series of three September polls all find former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by spreads beyond the polling margin of error. Pulse Decision Science (Sept. 3-5; 512 likely Virginia voters) posts Spanberger to a 48-43 percent edge. Christopher Newport University (Sept. 8-14; 808 registered Virginia voters) sees the Spanberger lead larger at 52-40 percent. Finally, in the most recently released survey, co/efficient (Set. 22-23; 1,024 likely Virginia voters) finds a result closer to the Pulse Decision study, 49-43 percent, also in Spanberger’s favor.

From the three data organizations that track and average poll results, Real Clear Politics, Decision Desk HQ, and Race to the White House, all see Spanberger leading in an average range falling between 7.3 percentage points (Real Clear Politics) and 9.4 (Race to the White House). The Virginia election is Nov. 4, so political prime time is now fully underway.

Wisconsin — Badger State Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) announced late this week that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.

The move had been expected, and Rep. Tiffany’s chances of winning the Republican primary so far against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien are good. Tiffany’s strong conservative record gives him the inside track in attracting backing from right of center political organizations which have proven important in Republican primaries.

Democrats who have announced their own gubernatorial campaigns are Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not standing for a third term. We can expect to see a toss-up open seat gubernatorial election here next year.

City & State

Boston — After suffering a better than 3:1 negative showing in the September jungle primary, businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, has withdrawn from the Nov. 4 Mayoral general election. This means that Mayor Michelle Wu (D) has won a second term in that she is now unopposed in the regular election.