Category Archives: Senate

The Third Hot State

Michigan Congressional Map / To see interactive map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

US House

While the most recent attention for flipping the US House has been devoted to the redistricting changes in California and Texas, a third state that did not redistrict will have an equivalent effect upon the 2026 national US House picture.

The Wolverine State of Michigan will be one of the hottest political states in the country for the 2026 election from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Because of the domain’s later April 21 candidate filing deadline and Aug. 4 partisan primary schedule, the early national political focus has been elsewhere, but such does not diminish Michigan’s importance as a ‘26 electoral player.

At the top of the ticket, and for the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and Senate race in the same election cycle. In the House races, we could see major competition in five of the state’s 13 congressional districts. One of those CDs is open, and two others feature freshman members seeking their first re-election.

The Governor’s race will be unique in that it not only projects to be close, but three-term former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent instead of a Democrat means we will see a competitive statewide campaign not just between two candidates, but three.

At this point, it appears that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will be the respective Democratic and Republican gubernatorial nominees. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to compete for a third term, but we are likely to see more of her as a probable 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring after two terms has made the Michigan open Senate campaign one of the most competitive in the country and may be the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat.

The latest published poll, from Mitchell Research & Communications (Nov. 18-21; 616 likely Michigan general election voters), projects Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers to small leads each over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D). The latter three are already embroiled in a close primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The lateness of the Michigan primary is another break for Rogers since he is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination and can stockpile resources for the general election.

The five competitive races that will have a major effect upon which party controls the next House majority begins in western Michigan with Districts 3 and 4.

In the Grand Rapids anchored 3rd District, which is rated as Lean Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 50.2D – 46.6R), Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), after briefly considering a Senate run, will seek a third term. Republicans don’t yet have a strong candidate capable of converting the seat, but this district is a top GOP recruitment priority.

In the 4th District, veteran Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), who seriously tested the US Senate waters before turning back under GOP party leadership pressure, has not yet officially announced that he will seek re-election in what again promises to be a competitive general election. In 2024, Huizenga won with a 55-43 percent majority against a weak opponent whom he outspent by a 3:1 ratio.

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean for CD-4 is 51.8R – 45.1D meaning the Republicans have a clear advantage but a strong Democrat would have a credible chance of securing an upset victory. Should Huizenga decide to retire, this race will likely go into toss-up mode. Democrats have four announced candidates including state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), who is already polling close to Huizenga.

The area encompassing the cities of Flint, Lansing, and the northern Detroit suburbs will feature potentially the three hottest Michigan US House campaigns.

In the Lansing anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) was the only 2024 candidate to convert an open seat. He will now defend his position within a hot political climate in what promises to be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Six Democrats have announced their candidacies and the leading contender for the party nomination appears to be former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. The DRA partisan lean for this toss-up seat is 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Flint-anchored 8th CD saw Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), then a sitting state Senator, defeat three-time GOP congressional candidate Paul Junge by a 51-45 percent margin. The DRA partisan lean of 51.0D – 46.2R, however, suggests the race could have been a bit closer. Republicans have yet to file a top contender, but this contest will again be close and is, like MI-3, at the top of the GOP candidate recruitment list.

Rep. James departing the 10th District to run for Governor leaves what could become one of the closest open seat races in the country. The DRA partisan lean here is 49.5D – 47.9R which has led to two close James’ victories.

Both parties already have five announced candidates. Republicans feature Mike Bouchard Jr., whose father is the Oakland County Sheriff and a former statewide candidate, while Democrats see former US Commerce Department Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel as their current top candidates.

Potential Republican contenders include former Congressman Mike Bishop and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke. Much will happen in MI-10 before the filing deadline as the candidates and potential candidates continue to test the political waters.

Regardless of how the national redistricting wars end, the US House majority will likely come down to just a few seats. It is clear that Michigan will play a pivotal role in determining which party will ultimately claim control of the House chamber at the beginning of 2027.

The Texas Surprises

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

Texas Elections

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard,” certainly applies to the 2026 Texas federal office slate. Now that candidate filing is closed, the clouded political situation is becoming a bit clearer.

Texas has a unique filing system that makes following which candidate is running where confusing. Instead of filing with a government agency, the candidates file with their political party. Yet, the process is further complicated.

Candidates filing for offices where the jurisdiction covers more than one county turn their qualifying documents in to their state party office. If a district is fully contained within a single county, the candidates file with their county political party. Once the paperwork is received, the political party entities eventually report the qualified candidates’ names and particulars to the Secretary of State. Therefore, the process takes longer to determine who will be on the ballot than it does in most other states.

In the Senate race, we now have a clear picture for the March 3 partisan primaries. For the Republicans, amidst minor candidates the three major participants, Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), are vying for the party nomination. This race is expected to be close and moving toward a runoff, which is necessary if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote. At this point, it appears that Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance to the secondary election.

For the Democrats, we see a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Five minor candidates have filed, and it is unclear just how many will qualify for the ballot. Irrespective of these latter candidates’ presence, it is likely that we will see either Rep. Crockett or state Rep. Talarico claim the party nomination on March 3.

In the House delegation, 11 seats are open with the addition of TX-30, the seat that Rep. Crockett is leaving to run statewide. It appeared that Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) would move into that district, but he surprisingly chose not to file. Instead, Veasey decided to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive) where he will face a Republican incumbent and other significant candidates.

The Veasey move allows Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch), who sees her 32nd District transform into a Republican domain and stretch into East Texas, to run in District 33, which is fully contained within Dallas County. Her major obstacle to winning a second term in Congress is former Representative and 2024 US Senate Democratic nominee Colin Allred. Though announcing for the Senate in October, Allred instead changed his mind at the last minute and filed to return to the House, this time in District 33. Also in the race is former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilman Domingo Garcia. Therefore, the top two candidates falling into a runoff becomes a possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will easily win the seat in the general election.

Another new development is the return to the political wars of former Congressman Steve Stockman (R). He has filed in new open District 9. Stockman was twice elected to Congress in non-consecutive elections. He was convicted of violating certain financial laws, but President Trump commuted his 10-year prison sentence. The other major candidate within the crowded field is state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

With 11 filed candidates in the CD-9 race, advancing to a runoff election is probable. It remains to be seen how many of the filed candidates qualify for the ballot. Under the new redistricting plan, the 9th District should be one of the seats that Republicans gain.

Another surprising move came in Houston’s 18th District. This seat is currently in special election mode, with Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) vying to replace the late Congressman Sylvester Turner (D). Immediately after the special election, it was thought the winner would then face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a battle for the new 18th District. The regular primary is scheduled for March 3 after a special election winner is declared on Jan. 31.

Only Menefee, however, filed in new District 18. Therefore, should Edwards win the special election, she will only serve the balance of the current term. Win or lose on Jan. 31, Menefee will advance into the regular Democratic primary against Rep. Green.

The truly surprising facet from the Texas congressional filings is the fact that only two state legislators, Cain and state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio; open new District 35), entered one of the 11 open-seat congressional campaigns. Therefore, the Texas delegation will feature a large number of incoming freshmen entering the House with no legislative experience.

The Democrats’ Maine Dilemma

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Another recent poll has been released showing Maine Gov. Janet Mills trailing her top Democratic Senate nomination opponent, and this time the margin isn’t even close.

While the surveys have been wildly inconsistent so far in this race, the latest Z to A Research study (Nov. 14-18; 845 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) finds businessman Graham Platner now taking a 20-point lead over the Governor, 58-38 percent. Originally thinking that Gov. Mills would have a clear path for the party nomination in preparation of challenging veteran Sen. Susan Collins (R), the Democratic leadership now sees what promises to be a bruising battle in the June 9 primary.

You’ll remember Platner as being embroiled in a controversy pertaining to a particular chest tattoo that is associated with the Nazis. He claimed to not realize there was a connection. He also apologized for posting a series of past offensive tweets. The negative publicity surrounding the tattoo and tweets largely explain the polling downturn in mid-October. The current Z to A poll suggests that he has overcome the flap.

Five different pollsters tested the Maine Democratic electorate from mid-October to late November, and while four of the five found Platner leading, his advantage range is very wide.

As mentioned above, the Z to A Research poll posts Platner to a 20-point lead, 58-38 percent. Maine’s People’s Resource Center (Oct. 26-29; 783 registered Maine voters) finds an obviously much smaller 41-39 percent ballot test in Platner’s favor.

SoCal Strategies sees a different outcome. Their poll (Oct. 21-25; 500 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) projects Gov. Mills with a five-point lead, 41-36 percent.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee polled the Democratic primary (Oct. 22-23; 647 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) and also sees Platner holding a major double-digit lead, 46-25 percent.

Finally, the first poll taken during this period, from the neighboring University of New Hampshire (Oct. 16-21; 510 likely Maine Democratic primary voters), also records Mr. Platner with a huge lead, 58-24 percent.

The wild swings seen within these five polls all conducted within a relatively consistent time frame provides evidence that Maine is a difficult state to poll. In the 2020 Senate race, literally every published survey – 14 of them according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives – showed Sen. Collins trailing 2020 Democratic nominee Sara Gideon, the state House Speaker, by an average of almost five percentage points. Yet, Sen. Collins won the election with an 8.6-point spread. Only her internal pollster, Moore Information, correctly projected the outcome in the election’s final polling phase.

While Platner is a first-time candidate, he already has attracted support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and the Democratic Party’s far left faction. The Maine Democratic primary is one of a number of situations that feature a populist left-wing candidate challenging a more establishment oriented liberal.

Although it looks like Platner may now have the inside track to upending Gov. Mills for the party nomination, defeating Sen. Collins may be another story.

Maine is a two-congressional district state, and the 1st and 2nd districts are politically very different. The southern 1st CD, which houses the Pine Tree State’s largest city of Portland, is solidly liberal. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a ME-1 partisan lean of 53.6D – 40.8R.

The northern 2nd District, which stretches from the Lewiston-Auburn area to the Canadian border, is conservative, but often swings between candidates. The 2nd is the most Republican seat in the country that sends a Democrat (Rep. Jared Golden) to the House of Representatives. Conversely, President Trump has easily carried ME-2 in all three of his campaigns. The DRA partisan lean for this seat is 52.9R – 41.1D.

To win a statewide race in Maine, each party must outperform his or her opponent to the largest degree in the district that typically favors its party’s candidates. Sen. Collins’ overwhelming win in ME-2 five years ago allowed her to overcome losing ME-1. In the presidential races, the Democratic nominee in each of Trump’s three campaigns carried ME-1 with a greater percentage than he took ME-2, thus allowing Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris to win the statewide vote tally.

The Maine Senate race promises to be one of the most-covered campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. While the Republicans currently look secure to hold chamber control, the 53-47 majority margin could certainly change. The Maine result will go a long way to determining the final partisan division numbers and the new majority’s size.

Texas: Crockett Announces for Senate, Allred Moves Campaign to House

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

Senate/House

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

As expected, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) just as candidate filing was closing in Texas, yesterday entered the US Senate race; unexpectedly, former Congressman Colin Allred, who announced his Senate campaign in October, dropped his statewide bid and filed in the new open 33rd US House District.

Also, as he promised, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Fort Worth) left his 33rd CD to file in Rep Crockett’s 30th District. The new 33rd is now fully contained in Dallas County, thus robbing Veasey of his Tarrant County base. The new 30th ventures into Tarrant suggesting Rep. Veasey believes his re-election chances are better in CD-30.

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) eschews her 32nd District, which is now a Republican seat that stretches from Dallas County well into East Texas, to run in the 33rd. This creates a competitive Democratic primary between her and Allred.

There is some speculation that Rep. Johnson could have switched to the 24th CD in yesterday’s filing to challenge Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving), thus avoiding a Democratic primary. It remains to be seen where candidates are running until the political party entities release the qualified candidates’ names.

By running for the Senate, Rep. Crockett has certainly upset the Democratic apple cart. The national party leaders had hoped to find Allred facing a field of minor candidates similar to those opposing him in 2024 when he easily won the statewide party nomination. Allred, then risking a safely Democratic 32nd district that Johnson would later win, lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) by just over eight percentage points after polling suggested the contest would be much closer.

The Democratic leadership plans were thwarted this year when state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a media star among Texas political prognosticators and commentators, announced for the Senate and immediately began performing well in research surveys that pitted him opposite Allred.

Once the Senate race pollsters began to include Rep. Crockett, it became clear that it was she, and not Allred as the party leaders had hoped, who was consistently leading the candidate field.

Now, the Democratic primary will feature a competitive battle between Rep. Crockett and state Rep. Talarico. Since the field will likely evolve into a two-way contest, it is probable that a runoff will not be necessary, meaning the Democrats will probably see a nominee emerge in the March 3 party primary.

On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn, running for a fifth six-year term, faces Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Early polling suggests this race will proceed to a May 26 runoff election from the March 3 primary.

At this point, it appears Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance, but Rep. Hunt is hoping to come from the outside as a positive alternative to what promises to be a negative battle between his two principal opponents.

There are 10 open US House districts in the Texas delegation, but the full candidate complement for each of those races won’t be known until later in the week.

Uniquely, Texas candidates file for office with their political party and not a government agency. In a multi-county race, candidates file with their state party. If the office for which a candidate is running is fully contained within a county, the competing individuals file with their local county political party.

In terms of incumbent primary challenges, most US House members have drawn minor primary opposition. The first of three serious March 3 intra-party skirmishes appear in the Houston area’s District 2 where four-term Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble), state Rep. Steve Toth (R-Spring), and several others will compete. The question here is whether Crenshaw can avoid being forced into a runoff.

The second primary incumbent challenge to watch is again TX-23. In 2024, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) survived a Republican runoff defeat by just 734 votes opposite businessman Brandon Herrera. The 2026 contest will feature a re-match between the two, and another close election is expected.

Additionally, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) has drawn a significant Democratic challenger in a newly configured District 29. Former state Representative and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson is challenging Rep. Garcia for the party nomination, and this race has the potential of developing into a serious campaign within a significantly changed Harris County congressional district.

Some of the more interesting general election projected pairings come in South Texas. In District 15, two-term Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) will likely face regional entertainer Bobby Pulido (D) in a district that changed very little under the new map. Rep. De La Cruz was re-elected in 2024 with 57 percent of the vote.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump just pardoned from a federal indictment, will likely face Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina (R) in a district that is actually 10.7 data points more Democratic, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization calculations. The partisan lean numbers best explain why Rep. Cuellar again filed as a Democrat after the Trump pardon.

In new District 34, a coastal seat anchored in Brownsville, we are likely to see Round 3 between Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and former Rep. Mayra Flores (R). The 34th is now 18.4 data points more Republican, and since the 2024 race recorded a tight 51 to 49 percent finish, Flores’ chances, assuming she wins the party nomination, are therefore significantly enhanced.

Much more to come on the unfolding Texas political situation later in the week when the qualifying candidates for ballot placement are declared official.

Massachusetts Senate:
Another Noteworthy Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

Senate

Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey (D)

Two new polls were released in the budding Massachusetts Senate Democratic primary, and both suggest that veteran Sen. Ed Markey will find himself in another tough renomination campaign.

The first poll, from the University of New Hampshire, a frequent pollster of New England political races, tested Sen. Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) who announced his primary challenge in mid-October. The result shows Rep. Moulton in a competitive position in a hypothetical one-on-one challenge race against Sen. Markey.

The second poll, from Suffolk University and the Boston Globe newspaper, tested Sen. Markey, Rep. Moulton, and Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) who is considering entering the race. This poll result puts Markey and Pressley in a dead heat, with Moulton well behind. The Suffolk poll, however, does not meet the polling reliability standard as it relates to their Democratic primary cell segment.

The University of New Hampshire survey (Nov. 13-17; 618 registered Massachusetts voters; 343 likely Democratic primary voters; online) posts Sen. Markey to a 34-25 percent lead over Rep. Moulton. While the Senator maintains a lead beyond the polling margin of error, posting a support figure of only 34 percent within his own party certainly reveals a weak standing for a long-time incumbent. Markey was first elected to the Senate in a 2013 special election, but his first election to Congress, for the US House, came in 1976.

The Suffolk University poll (Nov. 19-23; 500 registered Massachusetts voters; live interview), sees Rep. Pressley leading Sen. Markey 35-34 percent with Rep. Moulton only scoring 16 percent. This poll, however, reveals only 144 responses from Democratic primary voters, with another 88 from Independent/Non-Affiliated voters who say they will participate in the Democratic primary. Thus, 232 responses are far below the minimum 300 sample cell standard for a statewide poll in a domain with nine congressional districts. Therefore, these results should be considered unreliable.

Regardless of what early polling may reveal, Sen. Markey is a proven winner over decades of campaigns, and he scored an impressive win in the 2020 Democratic primary. In that election, Sen. Markey defeated then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, thus defeating a member of the Kennedy family in their home state within the national party that his relatives once led.

Researching the polling archives from the 2020 race, we find that Sen. Markey trailed in the early going then, too.

From February through May of 2020, Sen. Markey fell behind Rep. Kennedy in three publicly released surveys from three different pollsters. The strongest Kennedy lead came from a Boston based Emerson College poll (May 5-6; 620 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters) that found a 58-42 percent margin in the challenger’s favor. The others showed the race much closer, but also with Kennedy leading.

In the September 2020 primary, however, Sen. Markey recorded a 55-45 percent victory after running a strong coalition-based campaign that overcame the “Kennedy mystique” in roaring fashion.

The Massachusetts primary is one of the latest in the country. In 2026, the Bay State Democratic voters won’t choose their nominees until Sept. 1. Therefore, this race has a long maturation period during which time we shall see major change.

The key facet may be whether Rep. Pressley decides to enter the Senate race. A member of the House Democratic “Squad” that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-East Elmhurst) leads, Rep. Pressley identifies as a Democratic Socialist.

She publicly confirms considering the Senate race and still has plenty of time to make a decision with a candidate filing deadline of May 5. The Congresswoman would risk a safe House seat, so the decision to run statewide against a veteran incumbent is major.

Rep. Moulton, who is viewed as being closer to the ideological center, would have a difficult time overtaking Markey in a head-to-head pairing since the Senator’s liberal record is closer to the Democratic base.

In a three-way race with Rep. Pressley added, Moulton’s chances may actually improve since the far left and the liberal left bases would be split between Markey and Pressley. This would give Moulton a better victory path because he could unite a coalition of more centrist Democrats. Though lesser in number, a three-way split would require less votes to win the plurality Democratic primary.

Expect to see a diverse set of released polling results at least through next Spring. Once Pressley makes a decision and we get closer to the election, clearer patterns will emerge. In the end, Sen. Markey will be favored and should record another convincing victory irrespective of who he may ultimately face in the Democratic primary.

More Texas News in the Spotlight:
Latest Senate, Redistricting Updates

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s US Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay.

Senate

Texas state flag

Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas US Senate poll that supports the common political supposition pertaining to the Lone Star State Senate race. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election.

In this poll, Sen. Cornyn leads Allred 47-40 percent and Talarico by a similar 46-40 percent split, both beyond the polling margin of error. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Allred would lead 44-43 percent, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44 percent.

The third announced Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), was not tested, nor was Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) on the Democratic side. Crockett has been leading in other Texas Democratic statewide primary polls but has not yet made a decision about whether to enter the Senate race.

The latest judicial redistricting ruling from the El Paso three-judge panel suggests Rep. Crockett may stay in the House since the 2025 Texas map invalidation restores her 30th Congressional District to its previous boundaries.

According to Ragnar Research partner Chris Perkins, who conducted this poll, wrote “John Cornyn is the strongest candidate for Republicans in a general election, as he has a clear lead. Paxton is statistically tied with either of the Democrat candidates and jeopardizes the ability of Republicans to hold the seat.”

The Texas Senate race is one of the key focal points of the 2026 election cycle. It will be perhaps the only Senate contest that features a contested primary in both parties along with a highly competitive general election.

Redistricting

Fifth District Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith, a member of the three-judge panel that invalidated the 2025 Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander over his objection, published a scathing dissent to the ruling. In his document, Judge Smith referred to lead Judge Jeffrey Brown’s decision as “the most blatant exercise of judicial activism that I have ever witnessed.” Judge Smith stated that he has been a federal judge for 37 years.

The dissent opinion begins by saying that, “the main winners from Judge Brown’s opinion are George Soros and Gavin Newsom. The obvious losers are the People of Texas and the Rule of Law.”

Throughout a 104-page document, Judge Smith details 11 different examples of how ruling that the 2025 Texas map is a racial gerrymander is either “false, misleading, deeply misleading, or deceptive.”

The state of Texas has already appealed, asking that the current ruling be stayed. Appealing a three-judge panel decision goes directly to the US Supreme Court and an official answer must be rendered. The justice assigned to oversee the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, in which Texas resides, is Samuel Alito. The justices have the individual power to issue stays on cases from the circuits in which they oversee.

If Justice Alito were to grant a stay on the Brown panel redistricting ruling, the 2025 map would return as the official Texas map. With candidate filing closing on Dec. 8, a quick ruling on the stay motion is imperative since the two maps are radically different in 11 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts.

New North Carolina Senate Data

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

Senate

A new Harper Polling survey of North Carolina likely voters produced positive numbers for Democrats, but other factors suggest the open Senate race is far from over.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (R)

Harper projects former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) to a lead beyond the polling margin of error for the 2026 Senate race. The underlying numbers, however, suggest that the Tar Heel State electorate could again generate another of its typically close finishes on Election Day.

The Harper Polling survey, conducted for the Carolina Journal online news site (Nov. 9-10; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters; live interview & online), finds Cooper posting a 47-39 percent lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley (R). The North Carolina open Senate race is one of only two competitive Senate campaigns — Ohio being the other — that already sees its general election pairing because currently neither party is hosting a seriously competitive nomination battle.

Clearly, the Democrats have successfully recruited their best candidate. Roy Cooper has won six statewide races, two as Governor and four as Attorney General including the 2012 contest when he was unopposed. There was some speculation that Cooper would eschew a Senate run to enter the 2028 presidential contest, but apparently the national party leadership was able to convince him to stay home and attempt to flip the Senate majority.

Cooper’s 2020 re-election race, however, was an underperformance, thus giving Republicans a potential area of weakness to probe. While being considered a heavy favorite for re-election to a second term, he only won with a 51-47 percent margin over then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R).

In mid to latter October of 2020, four polls were conducted in the state and then-Gov. Cooper led by an average of just below 13 percentage points. Yet, he only won with a four-point spread. That year, however, the turnout model favored the North Carolina Republicans as both President Trump and Sen. Thom Tillis (R) carried the state by small margins.

There are several further points to consider about the current Harper Polling survey. First, the eight-point Democratic spread is not particularly unusual for an early North Carolina poll. The state typically over-polls for Democrats, at least by two percentage points, which partially accounts for the Cooper margin in this poll.

Secondly, an unusually high 54 percent of the polling universe is female, which again pushes the ballot test toward the Democratic candidate.

Third, though not tested, Whatley’s name identification is obviously low. The evidence comes from the second ballot test question that pitted retired Navy JAG officer and author Don Brown (R), who has no statewide presence, against Cooper. Brown’s chances of winning the Republican nomination are virtually nil, so testing him against Cooper provides a base GOP benchmark.

In the Cooper-Brown ballot test, the Democratic former Governor leads by a similar 48-38 percent. The fact that Whatley and Brown post similar numbers and deficit margins is an indication that the Whatley name ID is low, thus his support level reverts to a benchmark figure.

Moreover, there are warning signs detected for all Republicans from this survey. The national right track-wrong track question that tests attitude shows 55 percent of the Harper, North Carolina respondents believe the country is on the wrong track. When asked the same about the state of North Carolina, 48 percent answered wrong track.

While these numbers are an improvement over what we were seeing during the end of the Biden Administration, they are not positive for the Trump presidency and largely confirms some of the trends we saw in the Nov. 4 elections from New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City.

Another warning sign for Republicans, and the heart of the negative trend, is the impression of today’s economy. Among these respondents, 58 percent said they are not confident about the economy as compared with 40 percent who said they are.

HP also asked an interesting question to better understand how the respondents feel about the economy. They found that 67 percent said they are planning to spend less for the upcoming holidays compared to only 14 percent who say they will spend more.

Finally, and still pertaining to the economy, the tariff policy is not popular with this North Carolina polling sample. A total of 53 percent said the tariffs hurt the national economy versus 38 percent who believe they help.

This poll, in a state that more often than not votes Republican by small margins, again highlights the economy as the most difficult issue the GOP candidates face.

Unless they can tell an improved story about how the Administration’s policies are improving everyone’s lifestyle especially when remembering that President Trump predicted his policies will create a “roaring American economy,” then the 2026 election results could well reflect the recent Nov. 4 electoral outcome.