Monthly Archives: March 2026

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part II

2026 Texas Congressional Districts Map. Click here or on the above map to see an interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Special Election

Yesterday, we previewed the Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas Senate primaries. Today, we look at 20 of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts that will see political action in today’s primary. Texas is a 50 percent runoff state, so expect many of the succeeding campaigns to advance into a May 26 secondary election featuring the respective top two finishers.

In Texas’ 2nd District, Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) has primary opposition from state Rep. Steve Toft (R-The Woodlands). While Toft has good grass roots support from the conservative wing of the party, and even an endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Rep. Crenshaw has a major advantage in financial resources.

Though the Crenshaw victory margin will likely be lower than in the past, he is still favored to survive this challenge and win re-nomination.

The 8th District is open because Congressman Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring after two terms. This is one of the seats that will possibly elect outright a new Republican nominee who will eventually win the general election. The former America First Principles Institute attorney, Jessica Steinmann, is in the political driver’s seat. She has all the key endorsements and very little opposition, a surprisingly easy run for a safe Republican open seat.

The 9th CD is a Texas redistricting map new creation. This is an eastern Harris County seat that will go Republican in the general election. We will likely see a runoff here between Trump endorsed Alexandra Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

Tenth District Congressman Michael McCaul (R-Austin) is retiring from the House after serving what will be 22 years when Congress adjourns in this session. In his place will be another Republican, but we will likely see two of the 10 Republican candidates advancing into a runoff election from tonight’s plurality vote total.

Republican attorney, Chris Gober who runs Elon Musk‘s Super PAC, is likely to be one of those participants. Possibly, businessman Ben Bius could be the other. This will be another race to watch closely in the May 26 Republican runoff.

In the South Texas 15th District, Democrats are hosting a primary with two candidates vying for the opportunity of challenging Congresswoman Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) in the general election. Regional award-winning singer Bobby Pulido is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination tonight over emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. The general election, even though the district favors the two-term Congresswoman, will be competitive in November.

Back in Houston, the 18th District features an endangered incumbent who may lose renomination tonight. Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) is placed in the same district with the recently elected Christian Menefee, who won a special election on Jan. 31. The two are now vying for the regular term in the newly created 18th District in the 2025 Texas redistricting map.

Though Green represents much more of the current district than does Menefee (65 percent of the new district’s constituency compared to 26 percent), polling suggests that the younger man has the inside track tonight.

Lubbock GOP Congressman Jodey Arrington is retiring after this session of Congress, choosing not to seek a sixth term. His decision leaves another multi-candidate Republican primary battle that will likely end in a secondary runoff election.

Here in the 19th CD, agribusinessman Tom Sell has accumulated strong endorsements from the agriculture community along with raising the most money. He is likely to secure the first runoff position. Vying for second place appears to be Bienvenido organization head Abraham Enriquez, who has Gov. Greg Abbott’s endorsement, and Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley.

With Congressman Chip Roy leaving the House to run for Attorney General, his 21st San Antonio/Hill Country district is another of the 10 open Texas seats. Retired baseball player Mark Teixeira, who has President Trump‘s endorsement, faces a series of Republican opponents, including former Federal Election Commission chairman Trey Trainor.

It is clear that Teixeira has the advantage over his 11 opponents, but whether he can win outright or will advance to a runoff is the question that will be answered tonight.

The open 22nd District is unique. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) is retiring, and his likely replacement is his identical twin brother, Trevor Nehls. The latter Nehls is a former Fort Bend County Constable. He is likely to win the Republican primary tonight without a runoff and is the odds-on favorite to replace his brother in the US House come November.

The 23rd District will be one of the seats that attracts the most attention tonight. Embattled incumbent Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) has been accused of having an extramarital affair with a staff member who later committed suicide through self-immolation, obviously a terrible and tragic story.

Gonzales was forced into a runoff in the 2024 election and survived by only a 354-vote margin. Firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera, who held him to that small victory two years ago, is back for another run and certainly the controversy that engulfs Gonzales could well change the outcome of this particular election. Also in the race is former one-term Congressman Quico Canseco who has not been particularly active. Going to a runoff here is likely, which could spell the end of Gonzales’ congressional career.

The 28th District, which touches the Mexican border, appears headed to hosting another hotly contested general election. Veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) faces only minor opposition for the Democratic nomination but will see a top-level opponent in the general election. Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina is expected to clinch the Republican nomination tonight, thus kicking off what promises to be a hot general election.

Many in the Republican Party expected Cuellar to switch parties after President Trump pardoned him from federal bribery charges, but such proved wishful partisan thinking. Look for this race to be in tossup mode all the way to November in a district that President Trump carried, 57-42 percent.

Returning to Harris County, Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) sees sizable new territory in her Democratic 29th CD, and former state Representative and ex- Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson is opposing her for renomination.

Polling shows the Congresswoman ahead, but a minor third candidate creates the possibility that the first-place finisher, likely Rep. Garcia, is forced into a runoff. If so, all bets would be off for a May 26 secondary election. Irrespective of their nominee, the Democrats will hold the seat in November.

In Dallas County, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) is leaving her 30th District to run for the US Senate. This is another of the open seats that could be decided tonight. Mega church Senior Pastor Frederick Haynes is favored over opponents Barbara Mallory Carraway, a former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilmember, and fellow pastor Rodney LaBruce.

Winning the Democratic nomination in this 30th District is tantamount to clinching the general election from this urban district.

Turning to Central Texas, veteran 31st District Congressman John Carter (R-Round Rock) is facing a large number of Republican opponents (nine), but none seem able to coalesce a majority against the veteran lawmaker. Carter is expected to win outright tonight even though defeating so many opponents with a majority vote is always a formidable task.

Back in Dallas, the 32nd district is a newly created Republican seat in the 2025 redistricting map. The seat stretches from East Dallas almost to the Lake of the Pines in East Texas. This is a Republican primary battle, and we will likely see a runoff among two of three contenders: former minor presidential candidate Ryan Binkley, businessman Paul Bondar who ran for Congress in Oklahoma two years ago, and attorney Jace Yarborough, who has a strong list of endorsements including one from President Trump.

In the new 33rd District, which is self-contained in west Dallas County, freshman Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is choosing to seek re-election in this seat since incumbent Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) decided to retire.

In a surprise as candidate filing closed, former Congressman Colin Allred (D), who was expected to join the US Senate field, instead decided to run again for the House in the newly configured 33rd CD. This is another case where we may see an incumbent member defeated because Allred previously represented a part of this district and has enjoyed large leads in pre-primary polling and campaign resources.

Back in South Texas, the 34th District hosts a Republican primary with two candidates having the same surname. Former Congresswoman Myra Flores is again seeking to return to the House in this Brownsville anchored seat, and this time her main Republican opponent is attorney and Army veteran Eric Flores, who President Trump has endorsed. We will see which Flores wins the party nomination, but victory may require a runoff because six others are on the ballot.

The eventual GOP winner will challenge incumbent Vicente Gonzales in a hotly contested campaign from a newly drawn district that is much more Republican. In 2024, President Trump carried the new version of this southeast Texas CD that hugs the Gulf of America with 55 percent of the vote.

The new 35th District is anchored in South Bexar County (San Antonio) and then stretches into rural southeast Texas. Here, we see a crowded Republican primary with likely two people advancing to a runoff election, one of which is probably state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) who Gov. Abbott backs.

Local business owner Carlos De La Cruz (R), brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), is a candidate in this district and has President Trump’s support. College professor Josh Cortez is another contender who could conceivably qualify for the GOP runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in the general election.

In Travis County, Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) will not seek a 17th term, yielding instead to two-term Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) because the two were paired in the new 37th CD. Without major opposition, Rep. Casar is a lock for renomination and re-election.

The Harris County-anchored 38th District is open because Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is running for the Senate. This is yet another open Republican seat that has drawn multiple candidates. Among the 10 running for the GOP nomination, only one, Tomball School Board Member Michael Pratt, has won an election.

President Trump and many other Republican leaders have endorsed mortgage broker Jon Bonck. Expect the primary vote to yield a runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be a lock for the general election.

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 2, 2026

Special Elections

Voters in three states will continue casting their ballots for tomorrow’s first-in-the-nation set of midterm primary elections. The three states are: Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

All three places feature runoff systems. In Arkansas and Texas, candidates must receive majority support in the primary or a secondary election follows. It is unlikely we will see federal election runoffs in Arkansas, but if we do, those associated contests will be held on March 31. Texas will host a series of federal runoffs on May 26, ending what will be a very long runoff cycle.

North Carolina has only a 30 percent vote threshold to secure nomination, so runoffs are few and far between. If a federal runoff proves necessary, that election will be held on May 12th.

Texas will host the major primary of the early voting domains. We will cover the Texas House races in tomorrow’s report because the state has 10 open US House seats and four incumbents who are in highly competitive campaigns. Today, we look at the dynamic Texas Senate race.

Sen. John Cornyn is in a tough Republican primary battle against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Tomorrow’s primary vote will almost certainly force a runoff election, probably between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton. Therefore, the Republicans won’t likely identify their 2026 nominee until May 26.

On the Democratic side, a similarly robust battle has emerged between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Polls have been inconsistent and both candidates can point to surveys posting them to a lead.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, the Republicans will face an onslaught of campaign activity for the general election even though the Democrats have not won a Texas statewide election since 1994.

Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, the Lone Star State will host a premier general election Senate campaign.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is on the ballot seeking a fourth term. If he is re-elected in November and serves most of the succeeding term, Abbott will become Texas’ longest serving Governor in state history. He will secure renomination tomorrow. The likely Democratic winner is state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), but whether she reaches the 50 percent threshold is still open to question.

Congressman Chip Roy (R-Austin) is competing in the open Attorney General’s race and is leading in the polls. It is probable he will advance into the secondary runoff election,` most likely against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

The North Carolina Senate race will be one of the premier contests in the general election, but the nominations appear set even before all votes are cast in tomorrow’s Tar Heel State primary.

Former Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper will be the Democratic nominee while former Republican National Committee chairman, and ex-North Carolina Republican Party chairman, Michael Whatley will capture the GOP nomination. Both will easily exceed the 30 percent support threshold to win their respective primaries.

Three House races are worth monitoring tomorrow night. In the state’s newly redrawn 1st District, which now favors Republicans to a much stronger degree, a five-person GOP primary has emerged with the eventual winner challenging two-term Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).

Former Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a victory spread of less than two percentage points in a more favorable Democratic district during the previous election. She is one of the favorites to win tomorrow night. The other significant competitors are Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County), and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse. Polling suggests that Buckhout has the edge over Sheriff Buck, but the outcome could be close.

In the Durham-Chapel Hill-anchored 4th CD in, two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough) is working to repel a challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who is backed by substantial outside money.

The two faced off, among others, in the 2022 Democratic primary when the seat was last open. Foushee, then a state Senator, outdistanced Allam by nine percentage points in that election. Rep. Foushee’s outside support has come in late, so the outcome remains a question mark though the Congresswoman is still regarded as at least a slight favorite.

Turning to western North Carolina, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock/Asheville) faces a challenge from former Green Beret Adam R. Smith who claims to have over 3,000 campaign volunteers. He doesn’t have a great deal of money, however, showing only $66,524 raised through the Feb. 11 pre-primary financial disclosure report.

More action appears on the Democratic side, where three candidates have raised over $100,000 for their primary campaign. The fundraising leader is agribusinessman Jamie Ager who attracted more than $940,000 through the same Feb. 11th financial disclosure deadline.

The 11th CD carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. President Trump scored a 54-45 percent victory here in 2024. On the edge of competitiveness, this race could be one to watch in the general election.

In Arkansas, none of the state’s top office holders see major renomination competition. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) and Reps. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro), Steve Womack (R-Rogers/Fayetteville), and Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) are unopposed. Sen. Tom Cotton (R) and Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) face only minor opponents.