Monthly Archives: July 2024

Surprising Wisconsin Presidential Poll, Yet Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead & Close WI House Race; Sheehy Leading in Latest Montana Survey; Good’s Virginia Recount Timetable

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 2, 2024

President

Wisconsin: Marquette Poll Yields Surprising Responses — Marquette University Law School released their quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll (June 12-20; 871 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and found some seemingly inconsistent answers particularly relating to former President Donald Trump’s New York conviction.

Marquette poll yields surprising results. (Click here or on image above to see: Marquette University Law School’s released quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll)

On the presidential ballot test question, the registered voter sample broke 50-50 percent between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump when undecideds were pushed, and 44-44 percent on the initial question. Among those respondents considering themselves definite or likely voters, Biden held a 51-49 percent edge when respondents were pushed. When the independent and minor party candidates were added to the questionnaire, Trump went ahead 43-40 percent.

Perhaps most noteworthy, in responding to the question regarding Trump’s conviction, by a 54-28 percent margin, independents believe the former president is guilty of the charges. Yet, on the ballot test question, independents still broke for Trump 57-41 percent. This means that many of the Wisconsin respondents who believe Trump was guilty are still willing to vote for him in the general election.

Senate

Montana: Sheehy Leading in Latest Survey — Largely confirming the previously published Emerson College poll, a new survey again shows former President Trump with a huge Montana lead and GOP US Senate candidate Tim Sheehy far behind the top of the ticket but still within a position to win. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (June 3-5; 500 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sheehy pulling ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) with a 46-43-4 percent lead. The ballot test included Libertarian candidate Sid Daoud, but not Green Party nominee Robert Barb. Both are expected to be on the general election ballot.

In a straight Tester-Sheehy head-to-head result, the two men are tied at 48 percent apiece, but 41 of Sheehy’s 48 percent say they are definitely voting for him versus only 35 percent of Sen. Tester’s contingent who say likewise.

Former President Trump leads President Biden by a whopping 54-36 percent. The generic question, i.e., “would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate for senator,” breaks 52-40 percent in favor of the Republican.

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead in Regular Poll — As stated in the presidential section above, the Marquette Law School released their regular quarterly poll of the Wisconsin electorate (June 12-20; 871 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and in the Senate race again finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading Republican Eric Hovde by a 52-47 percent count when the undecided respondents were prompted to make a choice. On the initial question, Sen. Baldwin led 45-38 percent with 17 percent indicating they are undecided.

House

WI-3: Looming Close Race — The GQR survey research firm went into the field over the June 10-16 period (400 likely WI-3 general election voters; live interview) and finds western Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) holding only a small lead over small business owner Rebecca Cooke (D). The ballot test favors the freshman congressman by just a 50-46 percent margin. Van Orden’s favorability index, however, is barely positive at 41:40 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District is anchored in the city of La Crosse and spans through all or part of 19 western counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a virtually even partisan lean. Former President Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a 51.5 – 46.8 percent victory margin despite losing the statewide count. Prior to Van Orden converting this seat to the Republican column in 2022, Democrat Ron Kind represented the district for 26 years.

VA-5: Rep. Good’s Recount Timetable — Local news reports are confirming that Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) will request and pay for a recount of the June 18 primary results that find him trailing state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) by 374 votes according to the Virginia Board of Elections official count. The certification deadline is July 2 — today. After certification, a candidate can request a recount.

Though a 374-vote difference is not large — it translates into six tenths of a percentage point from a turnout of 62,792 votes — it is unlikely that a recount will change the final totals by such an amount. Rep. Good is also challenging the handling of ballots in the city of Lynchburg, a locality where the congressman won. Lynchburg election officials say the Good challenge would affect less than 10 ballots, even if his argument is proven correct.

Replacing Biden? Guess Again

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 1, 2024

President

Since last Thursday’s debate, speculation in the media has been rampant that Democratic leaders are going to find a way to convince President Joe Biden to end his re-election effort and allow another to become the party nominee.

President Joe Biden at Thursday night’s CNN debate.

It is important to remember that because Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee, meaning he has enough bound delegate votes to win the nomination on the first convention ballot, any change in this status would require the affected candidate’s consent.

According to an opinion piece and follow up interview from and with Federal Election Commissioner Trey Trainor, making such a move would be difficult even if the president were to voluntarily step down and the national convention delegates chose a replacement nominee.

The chances of the Democrats replacing Biden are very slim, and the procedural logistics, of which most who are publicly calling for a new candidate are not even considering, could cause major problems.

In Commissioner Trainor’s piece (Replacing Joe Biden Wouldn’t Be So Easy) the first stated point is that a new nominee would have to traverse 50 different state ballot processes and comply with all requirements in a short amount of time.

Other conditions might be impossible to overcome. Remember, the delegates are compelled, in most cases by state law (versus party rule) to support, at least on the first ballot, the candidate who the electorate chose through the primary vote. The common view is that President Biden, should he agree to leave the campaign, would free his delegates, but a candidate might not have such power over every state delegation.

As a result, some states wouldn’t allow a new candidate to assume the delegate votes that the Democratic primary voters pledged to Biden. Or, for those places that would allow the swap, we could see lawsuits arising on behalf of the voters to block a particular state’s delegates from casting a nomination floor vote for a candidate who their electorate did not support.

It also wouldn’t be surprising to see some of these lawsuits originating from conservative-oriented groups attempting to keep Biden on the ballot. While most of the lawsuits would probably not succeed, the new nominee’s campaign could be tied up with court procedures in multiple states, which would consume valuable time and money.

Trainor also underscores that if the Democratic National Convention closes on Aug. 22 as currently scheduled, a new nominee would have to quickly qualify in each state prior to the mail deadline for military and overseas ballots. In 2024, the date to mail such ballots is Sept. 21, which would give any new campaign committee scarce time in which to comply since states will be well underway with printing ballots considerably before the mail date.

Another point not covered in the article, but gleaned in a subsequent interview with Trainor, is the issue of the Biden campaign having a joint fundraising agreement with the Democratic National Committee.

According to the latest available FEC finance information, Biden’s campaign has approximately $92 million in his campaign accounts. It is presumed that if the president were to not continue his campaign, he could simply transfer the remaining financial balance to the DNC. Such a move would be complicated, Trainor says.

He further explained that the Michael Bloomberg presidential campaign of 2020 made a similar move upon the candidate exiting the race. The difference, however, between the Bloomberg 2020 and Biden 2024 campaigns is the existence of Biden’s joint fundraising agreement. The Bloomberg campaign had no such agreement with the DNC; therefore, it was able to transfer all funds to the national party entity.

With the existence of such an agreement for Biden’s campaign, transferring large sums becomes much more complicated because of how it could affect the coordinated expenditures that a political party can execute for a candidate. Trainor indicated that the candidate committee and the DNC would likely need to request an Advisory Opinion from the FEC regarding how to receive and spend the money, which would take some time. There is virtually no precedent on this described move, so many legal questions would have to be answered.

Because of the legal coordinated expenditure requirements and considering where some of the money was raised or from where it was sent, a new Democratic campaign could find itself having to spend a specific minimum dollar amount in states where they normally would not actively compete, meaning voting localities that are either strongly for or against the new candidate.

Now with key Democratic leaders such as former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, along with prominent Democratic members of Congress such as Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) strongly voicing support for President Biden, and the cumbersome logistics even to launch a new campaign at this point in the cycle, is one other clue that the party leadership will not attempt to remove the president from the re-election campaign.

Therefore, the banter about “switching Biden out” for a stronger general election candidate will soon quell. In the end, President Biden will approach unanimous support to win his party’s nomination either at the convention as scheduled or from a virtual roll call sometime later this month.