Daily Archives: October 23, 2015

Vitter’s Louisiana Gubernatorial Election Tomorrow

Oct. 23, 2015 — Tomorrow’s jungle primary election will begin the process of replacing term-limited Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), and it appears that the lone Democrat in the race and Republican Sen. David Vitter will advance to the Nov. 21 general election. In the unlikely event that any candidate secures an outright majority, such a person would be automatically elected.

State Rep. John Bel Edwards (D) is leading in all polls, and for two reasons. First, as the unified Democratic candidate, he has solidified his party vote as opposed to the Republicans, who are dispersing their support among three candidates.

Second, Sen. Vitter has been absorbing a multitude of attacks, from being labeled a “Washington politician”, to continuing the unpopular Jindal’s policies, to past sexual scandals, to being called aloof and out of touch with the Louisiana voting base — all have taken their toll upon him. Originally leading the race, it now appears he will finish a distant second, but still far enough ahead of Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne to advance.

An Edwards-Vitter run-off election will be nasty and bitter. It is likely the Democrats have saved their toughest attacks on Vitter until the run-off, knowing that a secondary election is a virtual certainty. Sen. Vitter, whose personal approval ratings are poor, also will go negative, understanding that will be his easiest path to victory. Therefore, expect many attacks on Edwards — often linking him with an unpopular President Obama and the national Democratic Party — to be launched from the Vitter campaign, the national Republican Party organization, and Super PACs supporting the GOP nominee.

Webb Out; Jolly Crashes

Oct. 23, 2015 — Democratic presidential candidate Jim Webb, the former US senator (Virginia) who spent most of last week’s debate time complaining that he wasn’t getting enough attention, has dropped his bid for the party nomination. He leaves the door open to enter the general election campaign as an Independent.

The move does little to affect the race. The three most irrelevant presidential participants in this 2016 contest are the trio of Democratic minor candidates: Webb, former governor and senator, Lincoln Chafee (D-RI), and ex-Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. None of them have moved the political needle one iota since joining the race months ago.

Webb running as an Independent is also likely to have little impact. Qualifying for the ballot in all 50 states as an Independent presidential candidate is not an easy task. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the former Democratic presidential candidate will be able to raise the money and develop a national organization strong enough even to obtain ballot position.

Should he qualify, he is unlikely to become a major factor, and not the type of Independent candidate that will take a large share of the vote away from a particular candidate. Because he has straddled the ideological spectrum, first as a Republican US Navy Secretary in the Reagan Administration, and then all the way to becoming a Democratic senator, it is plausible that Webb’s few general election votes could potentially be evenly split between the two major party nominees.

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