Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

Presidential Popular Vote is Even

President Obama. / Photo: The White House

A series of new presidential election polls reveals a further tightening of the campaign on the national level, though President Obama maintains a lead over Mitt Romney in the most competitive states.

The two daily tracking pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports, both give the president only a one-point national lead, 46-45 percent and 45-44 percent, respectively. Looking at an actual benchmark survey, Public Policy Polling, conducting their study (July 19-22; 1,000 registered voters) for the Daily Kos national liberal blog and the Service Employees International Union, projects a flat 46-46 percent tie.

The only national poll not showing a dead heat, taken over virtually the same time frame as PPP’s survey with an identical sample size (July 18-22; 1,000 registered voters) from Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart, actually stakes the president to a 49-43 percent advantage. Based upon the available data, though the polling methodology appears sound, the McInturff/Hart result appears to be an outlier.

National Public Radio released their poll of the 12 commonly viewed battleground states (conducted by the Resurgent Republic and Democracy Corps organizations, July 7-12; 1,000 voters nationwide with an oversample of 462 from the battleground states) but its aggregate result is of little consequence. Though this poll, too, shows an Obama-Romney tie at 46 percent, such a figure is virtually useless because the combined popular vote in the most hotly contested states doesn’t translate into specific electoral votes.

What is valuable are battleground voters’ perceptions and attitudes about the candidates. As we have seen for months, there is severe polarization between the two major parties. By almost a 9:1 majority, Democrats believe the president has performed well in office. Conversely, the same virtual ratio of Republicans believes he has not. Independents tend to fall more on the Republican side, slightly rating Obama’s job performance more negative than positive. Also, Independents in these states generally oppose the Obama healthcare law and, by a slight margin, believe that the Supreme Court decision upholding the law is incorrect. This could prove significant as the campaign continues to evolve.

One thing that does deviate somewhat from at least the conventional wisdom, the NPR battleground state poll does show that both candidates have a strong base. Especially for Romney, this is a change. Before, most data indicated weakness among Republicans for their presumptive nominee, but the NPR data gives both contenders right around 90 percent support within their own party voter cell sample. This finding is good news for both men.

New individual key state surveys stack up relatively well for the president in the fact that he leads in most, but in no case is his advantage more than mid-level single-digit numbers.

Rasmussen Reports gives the President a six-point, 48-42 percent advantage in Michigan. Survey USA finds a similar five-point, 48-43 percent margin for Obama in all-important Florida; and We Ask America returns similar 49-42 percent and 49-43 percent spreads (in Obama’s favor) in Wisconsin and Nevada, respectively. Magellan Strategies produced a much closer 50-46 percent Nevada model. Quinnipiac University shows a tie in Virginia, and the Civitas Institute projects Romney to a one point, 49-48 percent razor-thin edge in North Carolina. Though it’s not a battleground state, Survey USA detects only a 46-40 percent advantage for the president in liberal Minnesota, which is a surprise.

The cumulative effect of the most recent survey data makes the president and his advisers uncomfortable. These are not the type of results strong incumbents would be seeing at this point in the election cycle. It’s going to be quite a remainder of the year.

Several Races Tighten: Fla., Ohio, Calif.

Rep. Connie Mack IV

Four new polls were released on Friday and each showed developing races that are becoming close. In yet another study that depicts Rep. Connie Mack IV
(R-FL-14) performing very well against two-term Sen. Bill Nelson (D), Survey USA produces numbers reflecting a hot Florida Senate race. According to S-USA (July 17-19; 647 likely Florida voters), Mack actually leads the incumbent Democrat 48-42 percent. The same sample gives President Obama a 48-43 percent lead over Mitt Romney, telling us there is no Republican skew in the respondent sample.

Since May 1, eight public polls of this Florida race have been released from six different pollsters (Quinnipiac University conducted three of the surveys as part of their monthly polling program). In five of the eight Nelson leads. In the other three, challenger Mack has the advantage. The swing goes all the way from 49-36 percent in the senator’s favor (Public Policy Polling; May 31-June 3) to Mack leading 46-37 percent (Rasmussen Reports, July 9). This provides us a net curve of 22 points. Such a large polling variance often reveals an extremely volatile campaign with an electorate willing to change course on a dime. There has been enough polling to tell us that the Florida Senate race features true competition and the thought that Sen. Nelson would have a relatively easy ride to re-election has now been firmly dispelled.

Staying in the Senate, Rasmussen Reports (July 18; 500 likely Ohio voters) projects that the Ohio race is continuing upon a competitive path. The latest RR data gives first-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) a 46-42 percent lead over GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel. The senator has maintained at least a small lead for most of the previous 12-month period. In the presidential race, this Rasmussen sample returned a 47-46 percent spread in the president’s favor.

Other polls have shown much stronger leads for Sen. Brown. Seven surveys have been taken of the Ohio Senate race since the beginning of May, from four different pollsters. All show Brown ahead. His advantage ranges from the four-point lead in the current Rasmussen poll all the way to sixteen (50-34 percent; Quinnipiac University, June 19-25).

Polling also indicates that two southern California congressional campaigns are very close. In the new 24th Congressional District, in what appears to be a pure 50/50 toss-up seat for incumbent Rep. Lois Capps (D), Public Opinion Strategies, polling for Republican Abel Maldonado’s campaign (June 26-28; 400 registered CA-24 voters just now released), projects a two-point race with the incumbent leading 48-46 percent. In the jungle primary, Capps received 46.4 percent, Maldonado obtained 29.7 percent, and Republican Chris Mitchum, son of late actor Robert Mitchum, garnered 21.5 percent. With the combined Republican primary vote exceeding a majority of the ballots cast (51.2 percent), the general election battle is clearly becoming a toss-up.

To the southeast in Long Beach, another survey indicates a close race developing in a newly created open seat, numbered District 47. Here, Democratic state Sen. Alan Lowenthal and Republican Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong qualified for the general election with the former scoring 33.8 percent to the latter’s 29.4 percent in a field of eight candidates.

Though this district sets up well for the Democrats, a Probolsky Research survey for the DeLong campaign (June 28-July 3, 400 registered CA-47 voters – released just now) gives Lowenthal only a 44-41 percent advantage as the general election campaign begins in earnest.

This race merits attention and should be considered a lower-level upset opportunity for Republicans. Lowenthal has been underwhelming on the fundraising front, raising just over $511,000, which pales in comparison to DeLong’s $862,908. Gov. Jerry Brown carried this seat 50-41 percent; Sen. Barbara Boxer won it 49-41 percent; and Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris lost the district 39-45 percent. The Democrats’ voter registration advantage is a little over 10 percent more than Republicans. This campaign carries a Lean Democratic rating with movement toward the toss-up column.

State Presidential Polling Tightens

Photo: The White House

Polling in the presidential race is interesting because the national numbers have been projecting a very tight race, but not particularly so for the key states. Several surveys released yesterday now show a pattern similar to the tight nationwide margins in the core states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, and second-tier swing state, Colorado.

Nationally, Gallup, Marist College for the McClatchy Newspapers, and the Purple Strategies organizations all give President Obama a two-point lead over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney. But, Rasmussen Reports projects Mr. Romney to be holding the same two-point lead. All of the polls were conducted during the July 9-15 period, though the Rasmussen data is derived from daily tracking surveys.

While the president’s numbers in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado have exceeded his national performance, such is not the case in the latest wave of studies.

In all-important Florida, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research gives Obama only a one-point, 46-45 percent razor-thin edge, but Purple Strategies (PS) actually detects a three-point Romney lead, 48-45 percent.

Ohio, where the president’s margins have typically been in the high single digits, now brandishes only a three-point Obama lead, 48-45 percent, again according to Purple Strategies.

To the west in Colorado, a state that Obama carried 54-45% in 2008, PS sees the president’s advantage dwindling to just one point, 45-44 percent.

Finally, in Virginia, where the Obama edge has been consistent and relatively strong, Purple Strategies forecasts that his Old Dominion lead is now down to just two points, 46-44 percent.

Major Swing State Polling Figures Show Obama Support

A series of new polls from three major swing states -Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania – reveals that voters basically support President Barack Obama’s immigration policy, but are split on his handling of the economy.

Quinnipiac University released their research data this week from polls simultaneously conducted in those critical swing states, and the results reveal that the president has a discernible advantage over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the three places, the culmination of which could decide the election. The polls, all from the June 19-25 period, report the following ballot test findings:

• Florida: Obama 45 percent – Romney 41 percent (1,200 Florida voters)
• Ohio: Obama 47 percent – Romney 38 percent (1,237 Ohio voters)
• Pennsylvania: Obama 45 percent – Romney 39 percent (1,252 Pennsylvania voters)

Since 1960, history dictates that no one has won the White House without taking at least two of the three aforementioned states. In comparing these results with the similar May 3 Q-Poll findings that gave Obama an eight-point lead in Pennsylvania with Florida and Ohio in virtual dead heats, suggests that the president has gained recent momentum. Today, Obama has clear leads over Romney in the three critically important states and, if such a pattern continues throughout the summer and into autumn, he stands in good position to secure a second term. Keeping in mind that voter disposition over a four-month time period in the modern campaign era can quickly change, this new data again suggests that the 2012 presidential contest will be tight in these three major battleground states.

The polls yield several basic conclusions. Initially, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania polling respondents support President Obama’s new immigration policy and are divided over whether he or Romney would be better for the country’s economy and their personal finances.

In Florida, on the heels of the President’s recent decision to prevent deportation of younger Illegal immigrants, Mr. Obama holds a sizable lead among Hispanic voters. Specifically, the Q-Poll indicates an Obama support factor within the Florida Hispanic cell segment at 56-32 percent, compared to 49-39 percent in the May Quinnipiac University poll. The earlier survey was in the field prior to Obama and Romney each making their respective immigration policy speeches. Increasing Republican share of the Hispanic voting block is crucial to a Romney win formula.

Furthermore, Obama leads in other demographic group cell sectors as well, including 85-6 percent support among black voters, which actually could be a low number when compared with voter history from 2008. White voters in Florida back Romney 50-35 percent. Obama also leads among Sunshine State women, 47-40 percent, while men are evenly divided with 43 percent for Obama and 42 percent for Romney.

In Ohio, we find similar results as the Buckeye State Q-Poll reveals 52-38 percent support for the president’s immigration policy. By a margin of 45-38 percent, respondents say he would do a better job than Romney in handling immigration. Obama currently possesses a discernible lead among Ohio Independents, which historically have proven to be a bellwether in determining which way the state will swing.

Pennsylvania women are strongly backing the president according to the Keystone State Q-Poll (48-36 percent), with men tipping 42-41 percent toward Romney. Voters in Pennsylvania don’t necessarily approve of the way Mr. Obama is handling his job as president, split 45-47 percent favorable to unfavorable, but his numbers are better than Romney’s upside down 34:39 percent personal image ratio.

In conclusion, the Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania polls provide strong indications about which way the country will swing this fall. Today, it is fair to say that this race is still up for grabs, but the president clearly maintains the easier path to ultimate victory in November.

Polling on Healthcare Shows Intriguing Results

On the eve of the Supreme Court’s Obamacare decision announcement, Public Policy Polling (June 21-24; 1,000 registered voters) conducted a national survey of attitudes and impressions regarding the political leadership associated with the healthcare issue. The results are interesting, and potentially disheartening for President Obama and his party.

In answering the question about which candidate the respondents trusted more pertaining to healthcare issues of the greatest importance to they and their individual families, by a surprisingly close 45-44 percent count, the polling sample favored presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney. Perhaps even more stunning, by a margin of only 47-43 percent, the cell group said they trusted the president on healthcare more than the congressional Republicans. For the better part of time since the 2006 election campaign, congressional Republicans in particular, have been scoring poorly on favorability index questions. So, it is unusual to see them virtually at parity with the President on his signature issue.

But, perhaps the most surprising response of all came to the question as to which candidate had the most clear stance on healthcare. Despite the passage of his healthcare plan being the president’s most significant domestic agenda accomplishment and Romney being less defined, Obama only tops the Republican by a slight 45-42 percent margin when claiming that one candidate or the other has the more clear stances on the healthcare issue.

As one more indicator that the healthcare issue will be one that helps determine the outcome of this presidential election, the PPP survey sample would vote for the president over Romney by a 48-45% margin, quite in line with their specific healthcare answers.