Tag Archives: Maine Gov. Janet Mills

Gov. Mills Announces … Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), after a premature social media Senate announcement message over the weekend was pulled back, yesterday formally declared her intention to challenge veteran Sen. Susan Collins (R). The Governor was Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top choice to challenge Sen. Collins who overcame a massive attack campaign in 2020 to secure a fifth term.

Sen. Collins was first elected in 1996 and has announced plans to run again for a sixth term next year. Gov. Mills was elected in 2018, re-elected four years later, and is ineligible to seek a third term under the state’s election system.

In 2020, the Democrats and their candidate, then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon, spent over $60 million against Sen. Collins in a state of just over a million people. In fact, Gideon had so much money that her campaign coffers still possessed more than $9 million after the election. Under criticism from Democrats because she had so much money left over, the party nominee explained “there was simply nothing left to buy” as hundreds of thousands of dollars flowed into her campaign coffers from all over the country during the 2020 campaign’s last week.

Though every poll but one showed Gideon winning, Sen. Collins went on to score what had to be considered an upset win despite her long-term incumbency with a 50-42 percent victory margin.

Gov. Mills averaged 53.3 percent of the vote in her two victorious gubernatorial elections, which includes her 55.7 – 42.4 percent re-election victory over former two-term Republican Governor Paul LePage. The ex-state chief executive is now running for the US House in the state’s northern district. Before serving as Governor, Mills was a state legislative-appointed Attorney General, a state legislator, and a former local county district attorney.

While Sen. Collins’ age (she will be 73 at the time of the next election) might be an issue in other states as candidates prepare for the 2026 midterm elections, it will not be a factor in the Maine Senate race. Gov. Mills herself will be 78 years old at the time of the November 2026 election.

Gov. Mills began her campaign with the typical attacks levied against Republicans, saying they are cutting Medicaid so the wealthiest can have tax breaks, and “threatening democracy.” The Governor, however, is saddled with at least two major negatives of her own that will be front and center in the Collins campaign arsenal, added to a national GOP attack theme.

As we remember, Gov. Mills attracted national attention by defying President Trump over the “men in women’s sports” issue. Even in Maine, the Mills position favoring transgenders participating in women’s sports polls negatively. She also promoted an energy transmission issue that her opponents said favored Massachusetts to Maine’s detriment. The associated ballot initiative she supported was subsequently soundly defeated.

Today, Maine’s political campaigns are clearly defined. The state has two congressional districts, which are politically opposite. The southern 1st District that includes the state’s largest metropolitan area of Portland, is heavily Democratic. The northern 2nd District, which begins in the Lewiston-Auburn area and moves all the way to Canada, features the most Republican electorate in the country that sends a Democrat to the House.

Statewide, Democrats win by securing a larger majority in the 1st District than Republicans record in the 2nd. Sen. Collins habitually wins by running up her positive vote total in the 2nd District and reducing her margin of defeat in the 1st. As the political polarization grows nationally and in Maine, the 1st becomes more Democratic and the 2nd more Republican.

With former Gov. LePage running unopposed for the GOP congressional nomination in District 2, thus uniting the party behind his candidacy, Republican turnout in the general election could be spurred.

In LePage’s three gubernatorial elections, including his landslide loss to Mills, he carried the 2nd District, and he currently is the most prolific fundraiser among all Republican congressional challengers. His race against four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) promises to be close and could arguably be the Republicans’ best national US House conversion opportunity.

While the Democrats are successful in recruiting their top Maine Senate prospect, we can expect another brutal campaign to begin in the Pine Tree State. Heading into the election year, the Maine Senate campaign must be rated as a toss-up. Expect the polling to favor Mills, as it consistently favored the Democratic nominee in 2020, but history shows that the Republican turnout typically well exceeds projected polling results.

Recruiting Governors for the Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2024

Governor

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Over the weekend, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who now serves as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, was again asked in an interview if he will challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year. As has been his practice, the Governor’s response was non-committal.

Looking at the national Senate picture for the 2026 election cycle, we see many sitting or recently term-limited Governors in a similar position to that of Gov. Kemp. In fact, there are a total of seven term-limited state chief executives who could challenge a Senator of the opposite party next year. Presidential aspirations could also play a significant role in determining which Governors might run for the Senate versus those who would want to concentrate on entering what will be an open 2028 presidential race for both parties.

In addition to Gov. Kemp, the four Governors attracting the most Senate attention are also the most prominent ones said to be weighing their national prospects.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), whose term ends at the beginning of 2026, is in position to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D). Gov. Youngkin was discussed as a possible Vice Presidential candidate and appears to have the desire to run for President. What he may decide is unclear right now. For the Senate, though he is the best possible candidate for the GOP, Gov. Youngkin would still be at least a slight underdog to Sen. Warner.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) won’t leave office until the beginning of 2028, but he would be the best Democratic candidate to enter the now open 2026 Senate race. He has previously said he wouldn’t run for the Senate but has not ruled out running for President. Still, he will be under strong pressure from national Democrats to run for the Senate since he is realistically the only Kentuckian who may be able to deny the Republicans from hanging on to retiring Mitch McConnell’s seat.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is standing for a third term in North Carolina, a state that always features close races, and the 2026 campaign appears as no exception to that electoral pattern. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) was term-limited in 2024 and has been actively looking at both a Senate and presidential run. Like Gov. Youngkin, Gov. Cooper was also considered as a Vice Presidential running mate.

Cooper, of the four Governors with presidential hopes, appears most open to launching a Senate bid. He has said several times that he will make a decision “within a few months.”

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has been commonly associated with a 2028 presidential run. With Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring, the Michigan Senate race will become one of the hottest 2026 campaigns. Since Sen. Peters has surprisingly left the Senate seat open, party leaders will certainly attempt to persuade Gov. Whitmer to jump into the race.

The party hierarchy’s argument to her should be bolstered since early 2026 Senate campaign polls find Republican former Congressman and close 2024 Senate finisher Mike Rogers leading ex-US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg tops a potential Democratic primary by a spread beyond the polling margin of error.

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) cannot seek re-election, but she will draw attention from the national Democratic leaders who are desperately looking to find a credible candidate against first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). Though Gov. Kelly has not indicated any interest in the Senate race, nor talked about running for President, it will not escape the party strategists that she would make a race against Sen. Marshall very competitive.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), her public rift with President Trump notwithstanding, is also term-limited and could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R). Gov. Mills would be 79 years old should she try to begin a Senate career by running in 2026. Previously, she has deflected questions about challenging Sen. Collins, but after going to war with President Trump over transgenders in school sports, her desire about entering the federal political ring may be changing.

In 2020, Democratic nominee Sara Gideon spent more than $64 million to try to defeat Sen. Collins — not counting millions more in outside spending — and led in almost all polling; however, she failed to even make the final result close, as Sen. Collins was re-elected with a 50-42 percent victory margin. Though Gov. Mills would be a stronger candidate, upending Sen. Collins still would be a difficult task.

Many 2026 questions remain to be answered, but it is possible that we could see an abnormally high number of seriously challenged Senate races soon unfolding.