Tag Archives: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst

Another Senate Opening?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025

Senate

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

Media rumors had been routinely circulating through most of this year saying that Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was contemplating retirement, and apparently such a decision is about to be confirmed.

According to printed Iowa sources, it is expected that Sen. Ernst will imminently announce her retirement thus creating an eighth Senate open seat for the 2026 campaign.

Should Sen. Ernst pass on running for a third term as now firmly predicted, the Republicans would still be in strong position to hold the open seat. Waiting in the wings with the chance to become a consensus GOP candidate is three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) who has convincingly made what should be a politically marginal northeast Iowa 2nd District into a safe domain.

Hinson, a former news anchor for a Cedar Rapids television station, came to Congress in the 2020 election when she unseated first-term Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the pre-redistricting 1st CD. She has since averaged 55.6 percent of the vote in her two re-elections. In the 2022 race, she defeated a strong Democratic candidate, then-state Sen. Liz Mathis, who was also a former Cedar Rapids news anchor, with 54.1 percent of the vote.

The Democratic Senate field features state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. Likely the strongest potential Democrat and the party’s lone statewide officeholder, State Auditor Rob Sand, is already in the open Governor’s race.

The absence of Rep. Hinson in her 2nd CD would make the succeeding House race much more interesting. Already, four Democrats had announced their candidacy against Rep. Hinson including state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). A new Republican nominee would have some ground to make up and likely find themselves in a competitive toss-up general election race.

Of the eight open Senate races, both parties must defend four seats. It appears Democrats will have little trouble in holding Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin’s seat, though an expensive and hard fought primary is expected before the March 17 primary election.

The eventual Democratic nominee in Minnesota, and consensus candidate Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) from New Hampshire, have the inside track to holding their respective open seats to succeed retiring Sens. Tina Smith (D-MN) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

The Michigan open race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), will be hard fought and likely one of two premier national Senate races. GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers is becoming a consensus Republican candidate. The Democrats will have to maneuver through a competitive primary that won’t be decided until August among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

The open North Carolina campaign will be just as tough as Michigan’s, although in this case the general election participants are already known: former Governor Roy Cooper for the Democrats and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is risking his seat to enter his state’s open Governor’s race, a gambit that appears to be a safe bet. In his wake, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) will be the principal contenders in the open Senate contest with the primary victor becoming the prohibitive general election favorite.

Without Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Kentucky Senate race, it appears a competitive Republican primary will determine outgoing former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R) successor. The leading contenders are former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), and self-funding businessman Nate Morris.

Two other Senators are running for Governor – Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) – and possibly California’s Alex Padilla (D) joining them, but the trio are not risking their seats. All would be favored to win open Governor’s races, meaning each would appoint their own successors after assuming their new office.

Added to the eight open seat races portends a large number of freshman Senators being sworn into office at the beginning of 2027.

Will Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst Run in 2026?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 18, 2025

Senate

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R)

There has been much public speculation as to whether two-term Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) will seek re-election next year, and such talk has heightened because of circumspect actions emanating from the incumbent.

On a local radio show this week, however, Sen. Ernst appeared to tamp down the rumors, indicating that such talk is “titter tatter.” The Senator further said an announcement is “coming in the fall,” but stopped short of saying she would make a declaration of candidacy. For the record, she has hired a campaign manager for the ’26 election cycle.

Sen. Ernst was first elected in 2014 with a 52-44 percent win over then-Rep. Bruce Braley (D). Ernst, then a state Senator, began that race as an underdog but built a strong campaign, took advantage of a favorable Republican election cycle, and won going away.

Six years later, she was a Democratic target and faced Des Moines real estate business executive Theresa Greenfield, who had more in the way of campaign resources and led the Senator in polling throughout most of the race. In the end, Sen. Ernst again finished strong and pulled away to record a victory exceeding six percentage points.

Early this year when questions abounded whether she would support then-Defense Secretary designate Pete Hegseth, rumors were flying that President Trump’s Iowa leaders were attempting to convince Attorney General Brenna Bird to challenge Sen. Ernst in the Republican primary.

After Ernst announced for Hegseth, which seemed to be the key proclamation that tipped the confirmation process in his favor, such primary challenge talk died down. Sen. Ernst, as did most Republicans, then supported every other Trump Administration nominee.

As a result, and at least for now, it does not appear that Sen. Ernst is threatened with a serious primary challenge, though she does face several opponents considered as minor candidates.

Preparing for the 2026 general election, this year appears differently. While there is talk that her re-election could become competitive, she is nowhere near the top of the Democratic conversion opportunity list, nor do the Democrats have a candidate who should be considered top-tier at this time.

State Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), and Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage have announced for the Senate. Of the three, Sen. Wahls is viewed as the strongest (Scholten has previously lost two congressional campaigns) but the eventual party nominee will have to win a competitive June Democratic primary before being in position to develop a credible bid against Sen. Ernst.

A viable challenge may unfold, but the type of general election campaign that can seriously threaten a multi-term incumbent in a state where the most recent voting trends are in the incumbent party’s favor, such as in Iowa, appears improbable.

Some, though, are pointing to Sen. Ernst’s 2nd quarter fundraising. While she raised just over $720,000 according to a report in The Down Ballot political blog, that dollar figure is only about 65 percent of the amount she garnered in the 2020 race during the commensurate time frame. Her cash-on-hand, however, appears strong — over $3.4 million for a race in a state without an expensive media market.

The fundraising data can also be explained not as a clue toward incumbent retirement, but rather illustrating that in 2020 Sen. Ernst was running her first re-election campaign and was considered a top-tier Democratic target. Neither of those points are true today.

Should the Senator reverse what now appears to be a course toward re-election, the Republicans have an ace in the proverbial bullpen. Three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids), a former local news anchor, has secured what had been a marginal political district featuring one of Iowa’s most Democratic metro areas. With more than $2.8 million in her own campaign account and not facing serious re-election pressure, Rep. Hinson is in position to quickly step in and fill the Senate void should Sen. Ernst ultimately retire.

In terms of the Hinson House seat, Republicans have a backup for this incumbent, too. Cedar Rapids Mayor Tiffany O’Donnell won her current position in the Democratic heart of Hinson’s 2nd Congressional District.

While speculation about Sen. Ernst’s future will continue until she makes a definitive re-election declaration, Republicans are in a very favorable position to hold the Iowa Senate seat regardless of the current incumbent’s eventual career decision.

Sen. Ernst Draws Dem Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 6, 2025

Senate

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) / Photo by Sage Naumann

Two-term Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has drawn her first prominent Democratic opponent, and the individual claims his decision to run is a reaction to a comment she made at a recent town hall event saying, “we are all going to die,” in response to a Medicare funding query.

Iowa state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), who failed in his 2018 congressional race against then-Rep. Steve King (R), and again in the 2020 open seat campaign opposite current Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City), announced that he will challenge Sen. Ernst next year. Scholten becomes the first sitting Democratic office holder to enter the Senate race.

In an interview with a Des Moines Register newspaper reporter, Scholten explained his motivation for quickly deciding to run after hearing about Sen. Ernst’s comments. In the interview, Scholten said, “… and just sitting there, contemplating life like you do at a funeral, I just thought I need to do this,” he said. “And so then when she doubled down on Saturday with her, I felt, very disrespectful comments, I was like, OK, game on.”

Sen. Ernst was first elected in 2014 with a 51-43 percent open seat victory over then-Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D). Six years later, she was re-elected with a 51-44 percent victory over Iowa real estate company executive Theresa Greenfield (D) in a campaign where the Senator was outspent by a 2:1 ratio. The aggregate expenditure level between the two candidate committees almost reached $84 million.

In each of those elections, the Democratic candidate over-polled and led early. In the 2014 Senate contest between Ernst and Braley, the Republican state Senator and the Democratic House member were trading the polling lead through most of the race. The contest began to gel for Ernst in October, when she ran ahead of Braley in 12 of 14 polls with four ties.

Though the pollsters were correctly forecasting an Ernst win, they badly missed on the margin as her victory spread was 8.3 percentage points as opposed to an average point lead of just 2.3, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives.

In the 2020 Senate race, we saw a different pattern yet with a similar conclusion. From September through mid-October, Greenfield held a consistent polling lead. Sen. Ernst began to rebound around Oct. 20 and saw the polling edge begin to flip between the two candidates with the incumbent clinging to a small advantage. In the end, Sen. Ernst was re-elected with a 6.6 percent margin, again well beyond what most pollsters forecast.

Throughout President Donald Trump’s elections the discussed familiar Iowa polling pattern was also present as far back as the 2016 election cycle. Trump and Hillary Clinton were going back and forth in polling for most of the election. In November, Trump began to pull away but averaged only a three-point lead. On election night, he recorded a Hawkeye State victory margin of just under 10 percentage points.

The 2020 polls again produced this repetitive pattern. Ballot test results were seesawing through most of the cycle with Trump forging ahead of Joe Biden at the end with a small average (2.0 percent, in this case), yet would win by 8.2 points when the actual ballots were counted.

In 2024, the state was being polled less possibly because the previous patterns would again likely yield to a strong Republican push at the end that would nullify early polling results. As with every major Iowa election since 2014, the Republican candidate was underestimated. Trump’s 2024 positive Iowa polling average was 4.3 points, again according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, yet his victory margin broke the 13-point plateau.

Expect a similar pattern to develop for the current election in that polling will likely show this 2026 Senatorial contest to be relatively close through most of the election cycle. In the closing days, it is probable that Sen. Ernst will pull away and win with a larger vote margin than the polling average will suggest.