Tag Archives: Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff

Georgia Republican Senate Candidates Closing in on Sen. Jon Ossoff

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 29, 2025

Senate

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

A recently released Cygnal survey research firm poll finds the Republican Senate candidate pool pulling closer to Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), and the two best available performers aren’t yet in the race.

The Cygnal poll (May 15-17; 800 likely Georgia voters; live interview & text) projects that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) runs slightly ahead of Sen. Ossoff, 44.3 to 44.1 percent. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) appears next strongest, trailing the incumbent, 45.7 – 44.3 percent. Neither, however, are announced Senate candidates.

Secretary Raffensperger, who was the focal point of the 2020 vote fraud claim controversy in the presidential race, could seek re-election. He has also publicly contemplated entering the open Governor’s race but has been relatively silent about launching a bid against Sen. Ossoff.

Rep. Collins has been listed as a potential Senate candidate since the beginning of the prognostication discussion, and he is still considered as a possible statewide contender.

Another potential Republican candidate, but one unlikely to run, is former US Senator and current Small Business Administration Director Kelly Loeffler. She also does well in the Cygnal poll, trailing Ossoff just 46.3 – 42.8 percent.

The announced candidates fall into the same close polling realm. Sen. Ossoff would lead Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), 46.0 – 42.1 percent, while state Agriculture Commissioner John King falls behind the Senator by a closer 44.7 – 42.1 percent.

This set of polls is much different from what we have previously seen in the early going. Before, Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who recently announced he would not run for Senate, polled slightly ahead of Ossoff, but the others were substantially behind. Therefore, the new Cygnal poll, from a frequent Georgia pollster, marks a significant improvement for the lesser known GOP candidates and potential contenders.

For example, the April Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll (May 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) found Sen. Ossoff leading Commissioner King, 51-38 percent. A January WPA Intelligence survey (Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia voters) posted Ossoff leading King, 47-31 percent and 45-32 percent over Rep. Carter.

The Tyson Group also polled the Georgia Senate race in January (Jan. 30-31; 600 likely Georgia voters) and reported Gov. Kemp leading Sen. Ossoff, 49-42 percent. They also tested Rep. Carter and found Ossoff rebounding to lead 47-32 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their April poll (April 24-27; 1,426 likely Georgia voters; multiple sampling techniques), saw Sen. Ossoff running ahead of Rep. Collins by a closer 47.5 – 42.8 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group also released Republican primary numbers from last month’s results. At the time, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome), who later announced that she would not enter the Senate race, led the group with 42.7 percent of the likely Republican primary voters. Raffensperger was second with 22.0 percent, followed by Rep. Collins’ 15.0 percent support. Rep. Carter drew 13.1 percent, potential candidate Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) posted 5.3 percent, and Commissioner King trailed with only 2.0 percent preference.

While certain states, adjacent North Carolina being a prime example, see routine polling inaccuracies that usually involve an under-poll for Republican candidates, the 2024 Georgia data produced sound projections.

According to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, the past six Georgia presidential polls all saw the race coming down to a one point margin. The final Atlas Intel (Nov. 3-4) survey predicted the correct margin, a two-point victory for President Trump. This most recent polling track record is a clear improvement for Georgia polling methodologies because the group of participating pollsters largely missed the 2020 Georgia presidential and 2022 Senate races.

The Republican nomination field is expected to be large, meaning the May 19 GOP Senate primary will likely advance to a late June runoff between the eventual top two finishers. Once a Republican nominee is chosen (Sen. Ossoff is expected to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination) the Peach State political fireworks will then consume the remaining five months of the ’26 election cycle.

The Georgia race promises to be one of the most hotly contested battleground Senate campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. It is clearly the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat, so the party will be all-in here, regardless of which Republican will ultimately challenge Sen. Ossoff.

The “Fail Up” Senate Candidates

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 16, 2021 — There is an interesting phenomenon developing in the 2022 US Senate races, and that is the number of currently leading primary nomination candidates who have lost their last race. No less than five current US Senate contenders, all topping the latest polling, were defeated the last time they were on the ballot, some even in political campaigns for offices with less prominence.

In recent election years, we’ve seen a number of candidates lose a race and then attempt to “fail up” in the next campaign year. Most of the time, the same result occurs. The seemingly lone exception to the rule is Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who lost a special election for the US House in 2017 only to run for the Senate in 2020 and be elected.

Turning to 2022 and the unusually high number of such “fail up” candidates allows us to see if this pattern can reverse itself, or if the vast majority of these contenders will again find themselves on the short end of the vote totals when their election cycle ends either in the nomination contest or general election.

The 2022 “fail up” Senate candidates are Abby Finkenauer (D) in Iowa, Adam Laxalt (R) from Nevada, Pat McCrory (R) and Cheri Beasley (D) in North Carolina, and Pennsylvania’s Sean Parnell (R). Dr. Al Gross, who lost the 2020 Senate race in Alaska is a possibility to enter the 2022 race in the Last Frontier, but so far has not announced his candidacy.

Finkenauer, a Democrat, is a former state representative and congresswoman from Dubuque, Iowa. She was elected to the House in 2018, only to lose her seat after one term, 50-47 percent, to current US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids).

Finkenauer is leading in early polling for the Senate Democratic nomination as she and retired Navy admiral and defeated 2020 US Senate candidate Mike Franken battle to challenge venerable Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) who has won seven US Senate elections. Early polling finds Finkenauer trailing by close to 20 points.

Laxalt was elected Nevada’s attorney general in 2014, but with only 46 percent of the vote in a place where his party swept all of the statewide offices in that election year with his being the lowest victory percentage. Laxalt then entered the open 2018 governor’s race but lost to current incumbent Steve Sisolak (D), 49-45 percent. The latest polling (September) finds him trailing Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by five points in a Mellman Group survey but holding a two-point lead in a study from WPA Intelligence.

North Carolina actually features candidates in both parties leading in nomination polling after losing their last race. McCrory is the former governor who lost his 2016 re-election campaign, even while Donald Trump and seven other Republicans were winning their statewide elections.

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