Tag Archives: Andrea Nuciforo Jr.

Opponents Line Up to Challenge Rogers; Re-Match Developing in NJ; Santos Opponent Rises; Potential OH-9 Challenger Bows Out

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 4, 2023

House

Kentucky Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Somerset)

KY-5: Multiple Challengers Opposite Rep. Rogers — Eastern Kentucky US Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) is the Dean of the House of Representatives. First elected in 1980, he has rarely been challenged since, though already we see four Republican opponents lining up to do so next year. Last week, the fourth of these candidates, airline pilot David Kraftchak, announced his candidacy.

In 2022, physician Rich Van Dam challenged the congressman, along with three others, and together the group held Rep. Rogers to an 82 percent landslide victory. With the congressman turning 86 years old before the next election, it appears these challengers are anticipating a potential retirement announcement, since it is unlikely they will have much success at the ballot box.

NJ-7: A Budding Re-Match — New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District is a definable swing seat, and it is appearing more likely that in 2024 we will see the rubber match between current Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) and ex-Rep. Tom Malinowski (D). The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3 while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 50.8R – 46.6D partisan lean.

While Malinowski has not yet officially announced his 2024 campaign, reports coming from the region suggest he is laying the groundwork for another political contest. Kean and Malinowski traded 51-49 percent victories in the 2020 and 2022 elections. We can expect another close battle here next year should this candidate lineup again come to fruition.

NY-3: New Rep. Santos’ Opponent Announces — While clearly Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) has attracted the most attention of any new member in the current Congress, individuals willing to challenge him in the next election haven’t been particularly quick to come forth. Late last week, however, college professor Will Murphy became the second Democrat to declare himself a candidate, joining Nassau County Legislator John Lafazen in the party primary.

It is likely that Rep. Santos will draw a strong Republican primary opponent, but many are waiting to see the ethics investigation results involving the new congressman that will be forthcoming at some point. Regardless of what happens or who decides to run, we are guaranteed of seeing a highly competitive 2024 congressional campaign in this Long Island CD.

OH-9: Legislator Won’t Return for a Re-Match — Veteran Ohio US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) did not fare well in the 2021 redistricting plan; her new 9th District was made decidedly Republican, but she was still able to easily turn back Republican J.R. Majewski, who proved to be a weak opponent. One of the individuals who lost to Majewski in the Republican primary was state Sen. Theresa Gavarone (R-Bowling Green). Sen. Gavarone announced last Thursday that she would not return to again run for Congress, but will seek re-election to the state Senate.

Many believed the crowded primary that allowed Majewski to defeat more established candidates through vote splitting cost the Republicans an opportunity of converting the western Ohio congressional district. This year, Majewski says he is planning to run again but hasn’t yet formally announced, and Republican leaders are looking for a stronger candidate to challenge Rep. Kaptur, who was first elected to the House in 1982. She is the longest serving Democratic member.

Earlier in the week, former Walbridge Mayor Dan Wilczynski announced his candidacy. State Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Waterville), the chairman of the Ohio House Ways & Means Committee, is also a potential candidate.

Massachusetts Primary Today

As President Obama makes his Democratic nomination acceptance speech tonight, Massachusetts voters will go to the polls to choose federal and state political party nominees in the nation’s second primary election held on a Thursday. Tennessee is the other state that chose such a voting day.

The primary election features Sen. Scott Brown (R) and consumer advocate and Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren (D) poised to easily win their respective party nominations. In the House races, two incumbents have significant challenges from credible opponents, but no upsets are predicted.

In the western 1st District, which is basically a combination of the current 1st and 2nd Districts because Massachusetts lost a seat in reapportionment, veteran Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA-2) faces former state senator Andrea Nuciforo Jr., who is now a local official in Berkshire County. Since Neal’s Springfield base also comes to this new 1st CD, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge, especially from a challenger with inferior resources.

In the 9th District, which now includes the hook-shaped Cape Cod peninsula, freshman Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA-10) attempts to win renomination from a very different district than the one to which he was originally elected. Almost 40 percent of the seat is new territory for Keating, and he goes into the primary seeing his home base of Quincy placed in another district. The congressman faces Bristol County District Attorney Sam Sutter today, but the challenger lacks the resources to defeat the one-term incumbent.

In the open 4th District (Democrat Rep. Barney Frank retiring) Joseph P. Kennedy III, grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, will cruise to the Democratic nomination today and easily win the seat in November. His victory will mark a return to Congress for the Kennedy family after a two-year absence from having anyone in federal office.