By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025
Senate
Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo
While the surveys have been wildly inconsistent so far in this race, the latest Z to A Research study (Nov. 14-18; 845 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) finds businessman Graham Platner now taking a 20-point lead over the Governor, 58-38 percent. Originally thinking that Gov. Mills would have a clear path for the party nomination in preparation of challenging veteran Sen. Susan Collins (R), the Democratic leadership now sees what promises to be a bruising battle in the June 9 primary.
You’ll remember Platner as being embroiled in a controversy pertaining to a particular chest tattoo that is associated with the Nazis. He claimed to not realize there was a connection. He also apologized for posting a series of past offensive tweets. The negative publicity surrounding the tattoo and tweets largely explain the polling downturn in mid-October. The current Z to A poll suggests that he has overcome the flap.
Five different pollsters tested the Maine Democratic electorate from mid-October to late November, and while four of the five found Platner leading, his advantage range is very wide.
As mentioned above, the Z to A Research poll posts Platner to a 20-point lead, 58-38 percent. Maine’s People’s Resource Center (Oct. 26-29; 783 registered Maine voters) finds an obviously much smaller 41-39 percent ballot test in Platner’s favor.
SoCal Strategies sees a different outcome. Their poll (Oct. 21-25; 500 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) projects Gov. Mills with a five-point lead, 41-36 percent.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee polled the Democratic primary (Oct. 22-23; 647 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) and also sees Platner holding a major double-digit lead, 46-25 percent.
Finally, the first poll taken during this period, from the neighboring University of New Hampshire (Oct. 16-21; 510 likely Maine Democratic primary voters), also records Mr. Platner with a huge lead, 58-24 percent.
The wild swings seen within these five polls all conducted within a relatively consistent time frame provides evidence that Maine is a difficult state to poll. In the 2020 Senate race, literally every published survey – 14 of them according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives – showed Sen. Collins trailing 2020 Democratic nominee Sara Gideon, the state House Speaker, by an average of almost five percentage points. Yet, Sen. Collins won the election with an 8.6-point spread. Only her internal pollster, Moore Information, correctly projected the outcome in the election’s final polling phase.
While Platner is a first-time candidate, he already has attracted support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and the Democratic Party’s far left faction. The Maine Democratic primary is one of a number of situations that feature a populist left-wing candidate challenging a more establishment oriented liberal.
Although it looks like Platner may now have the inside track to upending Gov. Mills for the party nomination, defeating Sen. Collins may be another story.
Maine is a two-congressional district state, and the 1st and 2nd districts are politically very different. The southern 1st CD, which houses the Pine Tree State’s largest city of Portland, is solidly liberal. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a ME-1 partisan lean of 53.6D – 40.8R.
The northern 2nd District, which stretches from the Lewiston-Auburn area to the Canadian border, is conservative, but often swings between candidates. The 2nd is the most Republican seat in the country that sends a Democrat (Rep. Jared Golden) to the House of Representatives. Conversely, President Trump has easily carried ME-2 in all three of his campaigns. The DRA partisan lean for this seat is 52.9R – 41.1D.
To win a statewide race in Maine, each party must outperform his or her opponent to the largest degree in the district that typically favors its party’s candidates. Sen. Collins’ overwhelming win in ME-2 five years ago allowed her to overcome losing ME-1. In the presidential races, the Democratic nominee in each of Trump’s three campaigns carried ME-1 with a greater percentage than he took ME-2, thus allowing Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris to win the statewide vote tally.
The Maine Senate race promises to be one of the most-covered campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. While the Republicans currently look secure to hold chamber control, the 53-47 majority margin could certainly change. The Maine result will go a long way to determining the final partisan division numbers and the new majority’s size.