Senate Money

By Jim Ellis

April 23, 2021 — Continuing our analysis of early 2022 campaign cycle fundraising based upon the first quarter 2021 Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, today we look at the key US Senate contests.

Tracking the Senate race dollars is much different than the House because the FEC groups incumbent statewide campaigns by election cycle. Therefore, the receipts column covers the period from when the incumbents last ran through March 31, 2021. This means the senators are reporting dollars raised from Jan. 1, 2017 through the first quarter deadline. For candidates just entering the 2022 campaign — those in the open seats for example — the disclosure period begins Jan. 1, 2021.

Therefore, the receipts category is not as telling for Senate campaign standing as it is for the House campaigns. Thus, the key category to gauge where the Senate candidates stand in relation to the 2022 campaign cycle is their cash-on-hand total.

The chart below focuses on the races thought to be competitive for the 2022 election. As we have seen in modern times, the financial aspect of Senate campaigns is less important than for the House in determining or projecting final outcome because so much is now spent on the statewide races even in the smallest of states.

Typically, Senate nominees from both parties consistently have more than adequate financial resources with which to communicate their messages. Furthermore, the current income/spending figures as they relate to candidate committees don’t account for the large amount of outside independent expenditures that now accompany almost all competitive US Senate campaigns, which certainly can alter final outcome.

In terms of clarification, Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-GA) total of $27,517,878 includes the amount raised for his statewide runoff campaign that was decided on Jan. 5, 2021. This explains why his receipts total is so high, and far beyond any other incumbent or candidate listed on the chart.

Ohio candidate Josh Mandel’s (R) filing includes the entire period from when he began his current run for federal office, which is the current cycle. He ran for the Senate, however, in 2012 and the cash-on-hand period reflects a large amount kept from that particular race and money raised in between the time of the last campaign through Jan. 1, 2021. The fact that he shows a negative number for receipts during the current quarterly report appears to be the result of investment activity during a previous interval.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is included on the Senate chart because rumors persist that she could challenge Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) in the coming 2022 Democratic primary.

The other individuals listed in italics are potential candidates who have not officially joined the Senate race. Rep. Steve Stivers (R) is still included in the Ohio listings even though he has since announced that he will not run for the Senate and is resigning from the House.

Italics: Unannounced Potential Candidate