Senate: A Polling Comparison

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 24, 2020 — Today, we look at the competitive Senate races and segment the group around polling consistency. Several races routinely report point spreads between the two major party candidates that are wildly inconsistent, while others vary over a small difference often within the same polling period.

The two most extreme surveys during the month are listed for each state with the most extreme first and the closest second. You will notice that the British firm, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, is often listed as the most extreme.

We begin, alphabetically by state, with the inconsistent group. Only the two Georgia races are in the September consistent segment.


INCONSISTENT


Arizona
Number of September polls: 14
Polling range: 16 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
(Sept. 12-16; 855 likely Arizona voters; combination online and live interview)
• Mark Kelly (D) – 52%
• Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 35%

ABC News/Washington Post
(Sept. 15-20; 579 AZ likely voters; live interview)
• Mark Kelly (D) – 49%
• Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 48%


Iowa
Number of September polls: 2
Polling range: 8 points

Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (for AARP)
(Aug. 30-Sept. 5; 800 likely Iowa voters; live interview)
• Sen. Joni Ernst (R) – 50%
• Theresa Greenfield (D) – 45%

Selzer & Company
(Sept. 14-17; 658 likely Iowa voters; live interview)
• Sen. Joni Ernst (R) – 45%
• Theresa Greenfield (D) – 42%


Maine
Number of September polls: 5
Polling range: 11 points

Quinnipiac University
(Sept. 10-14; 1,183 likely Maine voters; combination online and live interview)
• Sara Gideon (D) – 54%
• Sen. Susan Collin (R) – 42%

Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (for AARP)
(Aug. 30-Sept. 5; 800 likely Maine voters; live interview)
• Sara Gideon (D) – 44%
• Sen. Susan Collin (R) – 43%


Michigan
Number of September polls: 11
Polling range: 15 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (British firm)
(Sept. 12-14; 930 likely Michigan voters; combination online and live interview)
• Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 51%
• John James (R) – 35%

Tarrance Group
(9/1-3; 569 MI likely voters; likely voters)
• Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 47%
• John James (R) – 46%


Minnesota
Number of September polls: 5
Polling range: 8 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (British firm)
(Sept. 12-17; 718 likely Minnesota voters; combination online and live interview)
• Sen. Tina Smith (D) – 51%
• Jason Lewis (R) – 36%

YouGov
(Sept. 11-17; 1,031 likely Minnesota voters; online)
• Sen. Tina Smith (D) – 47%
• Jason Lewis (R) – 40%


North Carolina
Number of September polls: 17
Polling range: 10 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (British firm)
(Sept. 12-15; 1,052 likely North Carolina voters; combination online and live interview)
• Cal Cunningham (D) – 49%
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 38%

CNN/SSRS
(Sept. 9-13; 787 likely North Carolina voters; online)
• Cal Cunningham (D) – 47%
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 46%


Texas
Number of September polls: 4
Polling range: 7 points

University of Texas at Tyler
(Aug. 28-Wept. 2; 901 TX likely voters; live interview)
• Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 39%
• M.J. Hegar (D) – 28%

Public Policy Polling
(Aug. 1-2; 743 TX voters; interactive voice response system)
• Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 44%
• M.J. Hegar (D) – 40%


CONSISTENT


Georgia – A
Number of September polls: 5
Polling range: 3 points

University of Georgia
(Sept. 11-20; 1,150 likely Georgia voters; live interview)
• Sen. David Perdue (R) – 47%
• Jon Ossoff (R) – 45%

Morning Consult
(Sept. 11-20; 1,406 likely Georgia voters; live interview)
• Jon Ossoff (R) – 44%
• Sen. David Perdue (R) – 43%


Georgia – B (Jungle Primary)
Number of September polls: 5
Polling range: 2 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (British firm)
(Sept. 12-16; 800 likely Georgia voters; combination online and live interview)
• Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – 26%
• Raphael Warnock (D) – 21%
• Rep. Doug Collins (R) – 19%
• Matt Lieberman (D) – 15%

University of Georgia
(Sept. 11-20; 1,150 likely Georgia voters; live interview)
• Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – 24%
• Rep. Doug Collins (R) – 21%
• Raphael Warnock (D) – 20%
• Matt Lieberman (D) – 11%


NOT ENOUGH SEPTEMBER POLLING


• Alaska
• Colorado
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Mississippi
• Montana
• New Hampshire
• New Mexico
• South Carolina

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