A Wave of House Announcements

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 9, 2025

House

Over the 4th of July break we saw at least 17 individuals announce their congressional candidacies, 10 of which are worth mentioning from a competitiveness perspective. Many of the individuals became candidates over this past weekend as a show of patriotism over the national Independence Day holiday or in response to the “One Big Beautiful Bill’s” enactment.

The seven not worthy of discussion, including a Democratic challenge to Speaker Mike Johnson in Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District, involve candidates running in strong opposite party seats who prove no serious threat to their incumbent opponents.

The 10 districts listed below have the potential of hosting interesting races. The referenced partisan leans for each of the seats are the work of the Dave’s Redistricting App’s statisticians. The Trump-Harris figures reveal the percentage each 2024 presidential candidate received in the particular district.

Iraq War veteran Brian Hualde / Facebook photo

1. AZ-5 (58.5R – 39.6D; Trump 63.9 – Harris 34.8%)

While Arizona’s 5th District, wholly contained in Maricopa County, appears solidly Republican, Democrats appear ready to challenge for the seat since the CD will be open in the 2026 election. The latest entry is Iraq War veteran Brian Hualde. He joins a field of five Democrats vying for the party nomination even though the eventual nominee will be a decided underdog in the special election.

Eight Republicans have entered the race. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is leaving the House to run for Governor. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

2. CA-3 (52.5R – 45.6D; Trump 50.3 – Harris 46.5%)

Two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) has drawn his second 2026 Democratic opponent. Marine Corps veteran and Jeopardy! game show winner Tyler Vandenberg joined a Democratic congressional field that already features Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall. The general election again figures to be contested, but Rep. Kiley remains the favorite to score another victory in the low to mid 50s. The California jungle primary will be held June 2.

3. CT-1 (60.8D – 36.6R; Harris 60.6 – Trump 37.7%)

Veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune in one of several campaigns where the candidates’ age discrepancy will be a major issue. Rep. Larson is 77 years old with some health issues, while Fortune is 37. This could be a primary to watch. The Connecticut primary will be held Aug. 11, 2026.

4. FL-23 (56.5D – 42.3R; Harris 50.5 – Trump 48.6%)

In a Democratic seat that GOP leaders are attempting to make competitive, businessman Jared Gurfein became the fifth Republican to enter the primary in hopes of challenging two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland).

While the district has lately been trending slightly more toward the Republicans than the electorate’s longer term voter history suggests, Rep. Moskowitz will likely be cast as a decided favorite to win another term in the low to mid 50s. The only Republican candidate with electoral experience is former state Rep. George Moraitis.

5. NE-2 (50.1R – 47.1D; Harris 51.6 – Trump 47.0%)

With five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring, this Omaha anchored district is moving leftward and will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. As expected, former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Brett Lindstrom (R) announced his candidacy. This contest will develop into a hard-fought, close campaign. The parties will choose their nominees on May 12, 2026.

6. NJ-12 (63.9D – 34.3R; Harris 60.6 – Trump 36.7%)

This is another campaign where the incumbent’s age versus that of her opponent will be an issue. Businessman Kyle Little (D) claims to respect 80-year-old New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township) but at 36, Little says he would be much more able to serve the constituency. Rep. Watson Coleman remains a heavy favorite for the June 2, 2026 New Jersey congressional primary election.

7. TN-6 (61.4R – 36.4D; Trump 67.0 – Harris 31.8%)

With Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) running for Governor, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Van Hilleary (R) who himself served as the state’s 4th District Congressman from 1995-2003, announced that he will return to the elective politics circuit and attempt to succeed his current boss. Several state legislators are expected to join the race, but so far Hilleary would only face minor candidates. The eventual GOP nominee will be a lock in the general election.

8. TN-7 (55.1R – 42.1D; Trump 60.4 – Harris 38.1%)

With Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigning from the House on July 20, the first Democratic candidate filed with the Federal Election Commission. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) officially entered the special election and several others will soon be following suit.

Three Republicans have declared their candidacies: Former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps, Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, and state Representative Jay Reedy (R-Erin) all declared soon after Rep. Green indicated he would leave the House midterm.

While Democrats clearly are making an effort to run, the eventual Republican nominee will be the clear favorite in the special general election. Once Green officially leaves office, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have 10 days to announce the special election calendar.

9. VA-1 (54.1R – 44.1D; Trump 51.8 – Harris 46.9%)

Democrats have interest in challenging Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) because the 1st District is the only Virginia Republican congressional seat where President Trump’s percentage degraded compared with 2020.

This being the case, attorney and Army veteran Mel Tull became the third Democrat to enter the primary. He joins Chesterfield Circuit Court Clerk Amanda Pohl and corporate executive Lisa Vedernikova Khanna in the Democratic primary that will either be decided by a primary election or district convention in mid-June of next year. Despite Trump’s downturn, Rep. Wittman will again be favored for re-election.

10. WA-8 (49.9D – 48.4R; Harris 51.3 – Trump 45.5%)

Washington’s 8th District always has the potential of being competitive, and four-term Rep. Kim Shrier (D-Sammamish) has had her share of close finishes. Over the weekend, she drew a new Republican opponent for next year’s election. Two-time statewide candidate Bob Hagglund is now officially in the race. Rep. Shrier will be comfortably favored despite being in a district that could yield a very tight race. The Washington jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

Allred Joins Texas Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Senate

Former Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) / Photo: ReformAustin.org

Former Congressman and ex-Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) is returning to the campaign scene. Late last week, Allred formally announced his 2026 US Senate candidacy and is “pledging to be a better candidate.”

Despite his self-deprecating comment, Allred proved himself an able candidate and certainly a prolific fundraiser, accumulating $94.7 million for his 2024 statewide Senate campaign against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). The dollar amount was the fourth-largest raised nationally among all individual Senate candidates. The money did not help Allred secure victory, however, since he lost to Sen. Cruz by a 53-45 percent margin.

As many believed would be the case, 2024 was not the year Texas would flip to the Democrats considering that then-President Biden’s energy and border policies were proving harmful to the Lone Star State. In addition to Allred losing by a much greater margin than polling suggested, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris fell to President Trump by an even larger 56-42 percent count.

Now, Allred is counting on a better Democratic political climate due to the budding and likely divisive Senate Republican primary between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Therefore, the 2026 situation may be better aligned for a Texas Senate Democratic nominee.

Because a dozen 2025 polls have all found Paxton leading Cornyn, Democrats see a chance for victory against a weaker general election candidate if the scandal-tainted Attorney General follows through and prevails in next March’s GOP primary.

Allred, however, may not have a clear path to the Democratic nomination. Former Congressman, ex-presidential candidate and Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke, and Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) continue to say that they are considering entering the Senate race even after the Allred announcement.

Though O’Rourke and Castro may be considering running, it is probable that neither will launch their candidacy. Rep. Castro has flirted with running statewide before but has always backed away. He would clearly begin a race against Allred as an underdog.

Beto O’Rourke once had a promising political future when he left the House in the 2018 election cycle to challenge Sen. Cruz and held him to a 51-48 percent win after running a strong campaign. He then immediately jumped into the 2020 presidential campaign but was an early exit after a disastrous start. He then returned to Texas to launch an ill-fated 2022 run against Gov. Greg Abbott (R), losing by an 11-point margin, 55-44 percent.

An interesting development occurred on the Republican side just before the Allred announcement that suggests a possible change in direction. Yet another GOP primary poll had been released showing Sen. Cornyn again trailing Paxton by a large margin (Pulse Decision Science; June 17-22; 806 likely Texas Republican primary voters; Paxton 57 – Cornyn 38 percent), potentially prompting the four-term incumbent, for the first time, to make a statement hinting that he might not run. Sen. Cornyn stated publicly that ‘if a Republican candidate were to come forward who he was confident would beat Paxton,’ the Senator would step aside.

Turning to potential general election pairings, the most recent poll that tested Allred against the Republicans was released in May. YouGov, polling for Texas Southern University (May 9-19; 1,200 registered Texas voters; online), actually found very little difference between Cornyn and Paxton as the prospective Republican nominee against Allred.

From their ballot test result, Sen. Cornyn led Allred 48-44 percent. Paxton fared similarly in that he also led Allred, but by a slightly smaller 48-46 percent spread.

Polling in Texas was considerably inaccurate in 2024 and demonstrated the recurring flaw of underestimating Republican strength. According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives’ cumulative data, 17 polls were conducted of the Trump-Harris race in Texas and the President led by an average of just under seven percentage points. The final result found him carrying the state by almost 14 points.

The Cruz-Allred race was polled in similar fashion. A total of 15 polls from 11 different pollsters were conducted from August through early November of 2024 and, again with cumulative data from the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the race was miscast. The polling average found Sen. Cruz lead at just over four points, yet he won the election with an 8.5 percentage point spread.

Considering that recent election year polling tends to undercut Republican strength, and particularly so in the south, it is likely that both Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton hold at least somewhat stronger margins over Allred than the early published polling suggests.

There is no question that the Texas Senate race will again be a 2026 political focal point from the beginning of next year until the election cycle closes. We can expect a very competitive campaign with a tighter finish than those consistently seen from the Texas electorate.

Early Jockeying in the Post-Tillis North Carolina Senate Field

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 7, 2025

Senate

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R) surprise retirement announcement has jump-started the state’s political action.

The prevailing analysis so far is that the Tar Heel State Republicans are in a more difficult position regarding holding this seat than had Sen. Tillis continued to run for re-election. While he has the incumbency advantage, Tillis still has not proven himself to be a particularly strong vote-getter. In fact, he won both of his statewide elections with less than 49 percent of the vote.

In 2014, he defeated then-Sen. Kay Hagan (D), so winning with only a plurality is understandable in such a situation. In 2020, however, while President Trump was again carrying North Carolina, Sen. Tillis defeated a flawed Democratic candidate, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, who was carrying on an extramarital affair that became public in the campaign’s late stages. Even with that break, Sen. Tillis could only manage a 48.7 – 46.9 percent re-election victory.

Now, with Tillis being at odds with President Trump and the latter searching for a Republican primary opponent to support, the Senator’s position would likely have been weakened even further. Therefore, the Republicans being able to start fresh with a new nominee may prove to their benefit.

Turning to the Democrats, the party leadership is largely frozen in place until former Gov. Roy Cooper makes a decision about running for the Senate. Originally saying he would decide about challenging Sen. Tillis before the end of this summer, a renewed Democratic leadership push to get him into the race is sure to be accelerated now that the seat will be open. In response to the currently unfolding events, the former North Carolina chief executive again said it will be weeks before he makes a final decision.

Cooper, like many other Democratic Governors or former Governors, has presidential aspirations, so it would not be surprising to see him bypass a Senate race in order to launch a presidential campaign immediately after the 2026 midterm elections.

Already in the 2026 Senate race is former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D) who has been campaigning for weeks. Originally Nickel said he would step aside for Cooper, but as time passed with no response from Cooper, the Nickel went ahead and officially entered the campaign.

The party holds five of the 10 North Carolina statewide offices, including the three most prominent: Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, so the Democrats have good options beyond former Gov. Cooper.

Yet, all three of those incumbents were just elected in November. It appears highly unlikely that Gov. Josh Stein (D), who assumed his position in January, will decide to enter the Senate race, but Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, the daughter of former four-term Gov. Jim Hunt (D), and Attorney General Jeff Jackson could become candidates.

Chances are good that we will also see a crowded Republican field form but with no contender having dominant statewide name identification; that is, with the exception of presidential daughter-in-law and Fox News host Lara Trump, who will inevitably be mentioned in every pre-election article. Trump, though now living in Florida, is a North Carolina native and sending early signals that she would consider running.

Announced as Republican primary candidates even before Sen. Tillis decided to retire are three minor contenders: businessman Brooks Agnew, author Don Brown, and retired businessman and former Lieutenant Governor candidate Andy Nilsson.

Three members of the congressional delegation have already been mentioned as considering the race: Reps. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville), and freshmen Pat Harrigan (R-Hickory), and Tim Moore (R-Kings Mountain), the former state House Speaker.

National Republican Congressional Committee chairman and seven-term Rep. Richard Hudson (R-Southern Pines) was also considered a potential candidate but has already said he will not run. Rep. Hudson is on a leadership track in the House, and indicates he prefers to remain in his current position with future potential opportunity of moving up the leadership ladder.

Since North Carolina is known for hosting close elections and being a place where the nominee from either party can win any statewide election, the state’s open Senate race will become one of next year’s key electoral focal points.

Pennsylvania’s Rep. Evans to Retire; Rep. Johnson Enters Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 3, 2025

After a long period of stability regarding House open seats, three new member announcements occurred just this week.

We covered Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-NE) retirement decision yesterday, and now we see Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA) also headed for retirement and South Dakota at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R) declaring his candidacy for Governor.

PA-3

five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia)

Five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia)

After battling the after-effects from a stroke in 2024 that kept him from participating in congressional action for better than half a year, five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) announced that he will retire at the end of the current Congress. Evans was first elected to his federal post in 2016 after serving 36 years in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd District is fully contained in Philadelphia County and splits Philadelphia city with Rep. Brendan Boyle’s (D) 2nd District. PA-3 is heavily Democratic, so Rep. Evans’ successor will be decided in the 2026 Democratic primary.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 90.3D – 8.3R, obviously making it the safest Democratic district in the state. Not surprisingly, President Trump ran poorly here, losing to Kamala Harris in 2024 with an 88-11 percentage spread. In 2020, the gap was even larger as President Biden carried the district with a 90-9 percent margin.

The district is 51 percent Black, making it the only voting age population majority minority congressional seat in Pennsylvania. With a 3rd District voter registration of 77.8% Democratic and 10.0 percent Republican, a crowded Dem primary is expected and will decide which individual succeeds Rep. Evans. Next year’s Keystone State primary is scheduled for May 19.

SD-AL

On Monday, four-term at-large South Dakota Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) announced that he will enter the 2026 Governor’s race next year, a move that had been expected. In fact, Johnson’s move was so widely telegraphed that state Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) declared he would run to succeed the Congressman even before the official gubernatorial campaign announcement occurred.

The South Dakota Republican primary will be interesting in that Rep. Johnson is likely headed for a match against the now-sitting Republican Governor, Larry Rhoden. Once then-Gov. Kristi Noem resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary, Rhoden, then the state’s Lieutenant Governor, ascended into the state’s chief executive position.

While he has not yet formally announced if he will run for Governor, it is expected that Rhoden will soon declare his official candidacy. Also in the race is state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) and wealthy conservative businessman Toby Doeden.

The South Dakota Republican primary, scheduled for June 2 next year, will very likely decide the state’s next Governor. The last time Democrats claimed the Mt. Rushmore State Governorship was in the 1974 election.

Additionally, South Dakota is a runoff state. If no primary candidate receives at least 35 percent of the vote, a secondary election will be held. Next year, the runoff date, if necessary, will be July 28.

Johnson was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving as former Gov. Dennis Daugaard’s chief of staff. His first elected office, attained at age 28, was for a seat on the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission.

Considering the latest developments, the House open seat count now moves to 19, with 10 Democratic and 9 Republican seats in the category.

Three of the opens, because of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connolly (D-VA) passing away, will be filled in special elections later this year. Replacements for the remaining 16 seats will be decided during the regular election cycle.

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) says he will resign from the House once the “One Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted. When he leaves Congress, the open seat count will rise to 20.

In those 16 regular election open seats, only three are coming because the incumbent is retiring from elective politics. Seven members are running for US Senate and six, like Rep. Johnson, are competing in their state’s respective gubernatorial election.

NE-2: Rep. Don Bacon to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 2, 2025

House

Five-term Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha)

Five-term Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha)

Five-term Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026, a development that many political observers expected.

At his media event, according to Fox News’s reporting, Rep. Bacon said, “After 30 years in the Air Force and 10 years in Congress, it’s time to spend my future with the love of my life, our four kids, and our wonderful grandchildren. Thank you, Nebraska!”

The Cornhusker State’s 2nd District has attracted a great deal of attention in the last two presidential election years. Like Maine, Nebraska apportions its electoral votes meaning that each congressional district – the state has three – casts its own vote as opposed to the winner-take-all process that the other 48 states utilize.

In both 2020 and 2024, NE-2 voted for the Democratic nominee against President Trump, thus awarding one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes to the opposite party’s national candidate. Naturally, this history suggests the open 2nd District could become the House Democrats’ top national conversion target in the 2026 election.

In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris topped President Trump by 14,636 votes in the 2nd District, but Rep. Bacon rebounded from the Republican top of the ticket loss to win re-election with a 5,829 vote spread. Four years earlier in the 2020 election, President Biden captured the 2nd District with a 22,091-vote margin, yet Rep. Bacon again rebounded to win re-election, this time by almost reversing the presidential deficit. He defeated Democrat Kara Eastman with a 15,365-vote spread.

The 2nd District is comprised of Douglas (Omaha) and Saunders counties along with approximately 25 percent of Sarpy County. Douglas County, however, is becoming more Democratic as further evidenced when John Ewing Jr. (D) ousted three-term Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert (R) earlier this year.

For a different Republican to keep the 2nd District, he or she will have to emulate Rep. Bacon’s totals in Douglas County to secure victory. No Republican has recently carried Douglas, but the new GOP nominee will have to keep the deficit margin within the district’s largest county to the same level as did Rep. Bacon.

For example, in the 2024 election, President Trump lost the county by 27,814 votes, Sen. Deb Fischer (R) suffered a much larger Douglas County defeat (46,101 votes), and even Senator and former Gov. Pete Ricketts trailed in the county by 14,530 ballots while scoring a strong 63-37 percent victory statewide. In the 2022 election, Gov. Jim Pillen (R) also lost the county, down 9,492 votes yet won the statewide tally with a 59-36 percent margin.

In 2024, Rep. Bacon found himself down 10,314 votes in Douglas County, 4,692 in 2022, and 1,597 in 2020 yet repeatedly won the 2nd CD. Therefore, for the next Republican nominee to hold the seat, the vote deficit level coming from Douglas County must be aligned with Rep. Bacon’s performance and no other Republican candidate.

In the past two elections, then-state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Bacon. It was clear after him losing again in 2024, especially with Harris carrying the seat in the same vote, that the Democratic leadership would move to a new candidate in 2026.

At this point, and the list will now likely grow, four Democrats have announced their candidacies, led by state Sen. John J. Cavanaugh, IV (D-Omaha), whose father, John J. Cavanaugh III, (D) held the congressional seat for two terms during the 1977-81 period. The others are attorney John Argyrakis, surgeon Mark Johnston, and political consultant Denise Powell.

On the Republican side, two names are surfacing early as potential candidates, those of Douglas County Sheriff Aaron Hanson and former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.

The 2nd District race will again be expensive. Counting all candidate and external spending in 2024, an aggregate $34 million-plus was spent. In an open seat contest, expect that total expenditure figure to grow.

Rep. Bacon’s announcement means there are 17 (8R; 9D) open US House seats headed into the next election, but his is only the second retirement. Three members have passed away and the other 12 are leaving the House to run for another office.

Turning to the Senate, two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announcing his retirement over the weekend means seven seats will be open in the 2026 election. In that body only one member, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), is leaving to run for another office. The rest are retiring from politics.

Review: House Open Seats

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 1, 2025

House

US HOUSE

The next House election cycle will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

Throughout the past decade and into the first two elections of the current decennium, we have seen an inordinately large number of open US House seats in each individual election cycle, usually between 48 and 63 seats; but not so for 2026.

To date, there are only 16 open House seats for the next election, and three of those are due to the incumbent member passing away. Therefore, the AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva), TX-18 (Sylvester Turner), and VA-11 (Gerry Connally) seats will be filled later this year in special elections.

Regarding the 13 announced open seats for the regular 2026 election (7R; 6D), only one, IL-9 (Rep. Jan Schakowsky-D), derives from a true retirement. The other dozen incumbents will leave the House to seek another elective office.

While the open seat number is sure to grow as candidate filing deadlines approach (beginning in December), we are still unlikely to see a plethora of House campaigns without an incumbent running in political prime time next year.

Therefore, the open count provides a further clue toward seeing a House election cycle that will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

At this point, we see an additional five members who are soon to announce bids for other offices:

  1. MI-4: Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), against the wishes of the national and state Republican Party leadership, looks to soon announce that he will challenge former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers for the open Republican US Senate nomination.
     
    Huizenga would begin a Senate campaign in an underdog position for the primary, and his open southwestern Michigan congressional seat would become hotly contested in the general election.

    2.  

  2. NJ-11: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee for the 2025 New Jersey statewide election. If she wins, and the Congresswoman is rated as an early favorite for the November vote, her 11th CD will go to a 2026 special election. Should she lose the Governor’s race, Rep. Sherrill would be eligible to return and seek re-election.

    3.  

  3. NY-21: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations only to see her appointment pulled back in fear of the GOP losing her congressional seat in a special election, now looks perched to announce a bid for Governor.
     
    With incumbent Kathy Hochul (D) posting poor job approval numbers and facing at least one strong Democratic primary opponent, a credible Republican’s chance to win the Governorship, while still a reach, appears better than in most election cycles. Even if she runs and loses, Rep. Stefanik would likely then be in line for another Trump appointment.

    4.  

  4. SC-1: South Carolina Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is close to making an official gubernatorial announcement.
     
    The three-term House member has been confirming for months that she is considering the open statewide race and when Attorney General Alan Wilson declared his gubernatorial candidacy earlier this week, Rep. Mace came out swinging, publicly attacking him as being “soft on crime.” Her swift response and comments are a discernible clue that she will soon officially enter the statewide campaign.

    5.  

  5. SC-5: Another South Carolina Congressman, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), is scheduling a “special announcement” for July 27, which is a clear signal that he, too, will run for Governor.
     
    Assuming AG Wilson and the two House members all compete for the GOP nomination, a highly competitive Republican primary battle would transpire, culminating next June. Should no one obtain majority support in the June 11, 2026 primary, the top two finishers will participate in a runoff election two weeks later on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track to succeed retiring Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

There are several more members who have confirmed they are considering running for a different office but to date have yet to make any discernible move toward developing a statewide campaign. The Representatives in this category are:

  • Barry Moore (R-AL-1) — Senate
  • Rich McCormick (R-GA-7) — Senate
  • Mike Collins (R-GA-10) — Senate
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA-14) — Governor
  • Darin LaHood (R-IL-16) — Governor
  • Ritchie Torres (D-NY-15) — Governor
  • Dan Meuser (R-PA-9) — Governor
  • Harriet Hageman (R-WY-AL) — Governor

In the past, the following members have been mentioned as possible statewide candidates but are now considered unlikely prospects:

  • Cory Mills (R-FL-7) — Senate
  • Jared Moskowitz (D-FL-23) — Governor
  • Carlos Gimenez (R-FL-28) — Mayor of Miami-Dade County
  • Mike Lawler (R-NY-17) — Governor