New York Landslide a Precursor?

By Jim Ellis

April 20, 2016
— Donald Trump exceeded expectations last night in New York by capturing what appears to be 90 of the Empire State’s 95 delegates. Needing to score approximately 80 delegates to get back on track for a long-shot first ballot victory at the Republican National Convention in July, Trump did significantly better in his home state than pre-election projections foretold.

Trump garnered 60.5 percent of the statewide vote, making this the first time he has scored a majority in a primary. Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) was second with 25.1 percent, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz could manage only a 14.5 percent vote total.

Ironically, the only one of the 62 counties Trump failed to carry was New York County, or Manhattan Borough, which is his home. Gov. Kasich took Manhattan, and won the remaining five NY delegates.

Now Trump will need 57 percent of the outstanding delegates in the 15 Republican states yet to vote to score a first ballot win without needing any unbound delegates. He must earn another major victory in the eastern regional primary next Tuesday (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island) to offset what should be strong Cruz performances in Indiana (May 3), Nebraska (May 10), and South Dakota (June 7). Both Nebraska and South Dakota are Winner-Take-All, while Indiana is Winner-Take-All by congressional district.

Trump should win the New Jersey Winner-Take-All on June 7, and perform well in West Virginia (May 10). The Montana Winner-Take-All on June 7 is becoming highly important to both candidates, and we can expect a maximum effort from both campaigns there.

Oregon (May 17), Washington (May 24), and New Mexico (June 7) appear to be wild cards. California, with its 172 delegates in a Winner-Take-All by congressional district system (53 CDs), will determine whether Trump can claim a first-ballot victory. Right now, it appears he will have to win 41 of the 53 districts in order to win outright, if he meets projections in all of the aforementioned states.

Hillary Clinton also exceeded expectations, winning what looks to be 178 delegates in New York. She now needs only 28 percent of the remaining delegates in the 19 Democratic states and territories that still must vote. Effectively, the Democratic race is over.

Below are the latest unofficial delegate results:

REPUBLICANS

CANDIDATE ESTIMATED DELEGATE COUNT
Donald Trump 847
Ted Cruz 559
Marco Rubio (out) 173
John Kasich 149
Others (out) 16
Uncommitted 98
Needed to win: 1,237 Remaining: 674

DEMOCRATS

CANDIDATE REGULAR DELEGATES SUPER DELEGATES
Hillary Clinton 1,446 478
Bernie Sanders 1,205 40
Martin O’Malley (out) 1

Total Clinton: 1,924
Total Sanders: 1,245
Needed to win: 2,383

Remaining: 1,672


Delegate Count Source: Unofficial — The Green Papers website (for both parties)

The Democratic totals include some Super Delegates who have announced their support for a candidate even though their states have not yet voted.


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