Category Archives: Redistricting

California Numbers:
Some Democrats Actually Fare Worse

California Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version: Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

Redistricting

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan division for all of the new Golden State districts.

Several Democratic incumbents, and surprisingly the two considered most vulnerable heading into the 2026 election, actually fare worse when compared to the previous draw. Several Republican districts have no doubt been destroyed, but the situation may not be as dire for the GOP as Gov. Newsom’s media spin leads one to believe.

Starting in Northern California, Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-Oroville) 1st District has been transformed into a Democratic district. According to the DRA partisan lean calculations, the 1st moves from 60.2R – 37.7D to 55.2D – 44.1R. With state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) positioning himself to challenge Rep. LaMalfa, the Republican Congressman will have a very difficult time winning an eighth term.

Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is leaving his Sacramento County 6th District to run in District 3, which is now a point more Democratic than his home district. There, he will ostensibly challenge two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). The move puts Rep. Kiley in a bad position since his 3rd CD has flipped from holding a partisan lean of 52.5R – 45.6D to one having a 53.4D – 45.7R split, a net swing of just under 15 percentage points toward the Democratic segment.

There is some speculation that Rep. Kiley will vacate District 3 and attempt to unseat fellow Republican Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, one of just four safe Republican seats in the state. The new CA-5 partisan lean: 60.7R – 38.7D.

Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) was the closest winner of all 435 districts in the 2024 election, a 187-vote win over then-Rep. John Duarte (R). Surprisingly, the new map makes the latest version of CA-13 slightly less Democratic. The previous partisan lean was 54.0D – 44.2R, yet Duarte won the seat in 2022 and barely lost in 2024. The new partisan lean is a net 4.6 percentage points more Republican (52.4D – 46.9R).

Though the new 13th District remains more Democratic, the congressional voting history shows weakness in the Dem fortress. A strong candidate such as former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R), who has already announced that he will run, projects another difficult race for Gray.

Fresno Rep. Jim Costa (D) has averaged only 53.4 percent of the vote in his two elections but his district, just like Rep. Gray’s, actually moves more Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Instead of seeing a 58.5D – 39.9R partisan lean, the new district records a 54.4D – 45.0R swing, a net gain of 9.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor. Though Rep. Costa will still be favored to carry the new 21st CD, seeing a potential Republican upset develop here is not outside the realm of possibility.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) has always been a major national Democratic target since he represents one of the most Democratic districts to send a Republican to the US House. Despite facing an adverse partisan lean in the previous District 22 version of 55.5D – 42.6R, Rep. Valadao secured two consecutive victories. This is another Central Valley district where the non-partisan calculations find the Republican factor getting better on this new map.

Moving forward, the DRA partisan lean for CD-22 is 52.1D – 47.3R, representing a net Republican gain of 8.1 percentage points. Therefore, with Rep. Valadao securing a 53-47 percent victory under the previous partisan lean, his chances should improve under this new 2026 map.

Seven-term Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) also sees his sprawling desert district become a bit more Republican. According to the past and present DRA partisan lean calculations, Rep. Ruiz’s 25th District is 5.5 percentage points more Republican. The new partisan lean is 54.2D – 45.3R, which clearly still favors Democrats, but the new draw makes the seat potentially more competitive.

The new 40th District is the final domain conceded to the Republicans. At this point, it appears both Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra) may be fighting each other to capture this seat. Rep. Calvert has already declared he will run here as his 41st District was transferred to Los Angeles County from Riverside County, and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) has declared her intent to run in that district.

Neither Reps. Calvert nor Kim represent a great deal of the new 40th, so we will see how this paired contest eventually unfolds. It is possible that both could advance to the general election under the state’s jungle primary format so we might see a year-long campaign between the two Republicans.

Another surprising aspect on this new map is the draw for freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) in the new 45th District. In 2024, Tran unseated two-term GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by 653 votes, which made it the second-closest congressional race in California and the nation. Yet, under the new map, the partisan lean actually moves slightly more toward the Republicans. When Rep. Tran won, the DRA partisan lean was 52.2D – 45.9R. The new ratio is 51.7D – 47.5R, a net swing of 2.1 percentage points toward the GOP.

While Rep. Tran will still see more Democratic voters in his district than Republican, we can count on the GOP making a major effort here. Under the new draw, this seat could be another option for Rep. Kim.

The final district that was greatly changed is Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-San Diego) 48th District. The seat flips from having a partisan lean of 58.3R – 39.8D to a new district, largely because of including most of the city of Encinitas, that yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan split. Obviously, the district is somewhat more Democratic, but the numbers are close enough that Rep. Issa will have a fighting chance to win again.

While Democrats will very likely gain seats under this new draw and reduce California’s Republican contingent to fewer than the nine seats they currently control, stretching to a Democratic gain of five might not be achieved.

Ohio Redistricts

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version on Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

Redistricting

Ohio’s unique redistricting process ended as quickly as it began.

The Buckeye State’s seven-member redistricting commission, which is comprised of elected officials from both parties and includes Gov. Mike DeWine (R), unanimously passed a new congressional map. The act of the commissioners reaching a bipartisan consensus vote means the map becomes law and does not go to the legislature for approval. The plan will now stand for the remainder of the decade.

Ohio voters previously adopted changes to the redistricting process that created the state’s unusual elected officials commission (other commission states typically have citizen members), which involves the legislature if the bipartisan panel cannot unanimously agree.

If the commissioners reached an impasse, the plan would advance to the legislature where a three-fifths vote of each house would be required to enact a map for the entire decade. Passing a plan with majority support, but short of a three-fifths tally, means the district configuration could only stand for two elections. Such was the case with the 2021 congressional map; hence, the legal requirement to redraw the current plan for the decade’s succeeding elections.

Ohio becomes the fourth state to complete its redistricting process joining Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina. California will soon follow suit since their ballot referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map passed in today’s election.

The new Ohio plan heavily targets veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) who, first elected in 1982, is the longest serving female in congressional history. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Kaptur’s new 9th District becomes a net 10.7 points more Republican.

The 2021 map, which was used in 2022 and 2024, carried an OH-9 partisan lean of 48.8D – 48.6R. In 2024, Rep. Kaptur’s victory margin was just 48.3 – 47.6 percent over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). According to the Down Ballot political blog reporters, President Trump would have carried new District by a 55-44 percent clip.

The new partisan lean will be 54.8R – 44.2D, and state Senate President Rob McColley (R-Napoleon), whose residence has been added to the 9th District, is potentially waiting in the wings to initiate a congressional challenge.

The original GOP objective included making the state’s 13th District, that of Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron), more Republican. In her two congressional elections, she has averaged 51.9 percent of the vote. As a result of the partisan commission members’ compromise offering, Rep. Sykes’ district actually became just under a half-point more Democratic according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Therefore, the new District 13 partisan lean is 51.2D – 47.2R.

Kamala Harris would have carried the new CD-13 with a 51-48 percent margin. In the previous version, her victory over President Trump equaled just 183 votes, making it the tightest congressional district in the country for the 2024 presidential election.

Former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), who held Rep. Sykes to her close 2024 re-election victory and was planning to run again, says he would have no victory path in the district’s new version. As a result, Coughlin announced that he will not return for a rematch.

While District 13 became slightly more Democratic under the new draw, the Cincinnati-anchored District 1 now flips from Harris to Trump. Instead of Rep. Sykes being a main GOP target, it is two-term Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) who will draw the difficult path to re-election in 2026.

According to Down Ballot, the 1st District 2024 presidential numbers flip from what was 53-46 percent Harris to 51-48 percent Trump. The DRA partisan lean spins from 49.9D – 47.9R to 50.8R – 48.2D, meaning the political advantage almost symmetrically turns.

While the Republicans hoped to pass a map that would have given them an extra two seats in the Ohio delegation (the current partisan split is 10R-5D), they now see one district likely coming their way with two other Democratic seats moving toward the competitive category.

Overall, of the 15 Ohio districts, only two become more Democratic, Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus) seat, and that of western Republican Congressman Warren Davidson (R-Troy). The remaining 13 CDs all swing slightly more Republican.

Questions arose as to why the Democratic commission members would agree to the compromise map. The members responded saying they believe this plan was their best option, arguing the legislature would have drawn an even more partisan map. Conversely, some Republicans are attacking the GOP commission members for not pushing the map into the legislature.

Expect the political jockeying for position within the new congressional districts to immediately begin now that the campaign playing field is set.

Utah Redistricts

Watch this report by Fox 13 News|Utah: Utah Redistricting

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

Redistricting

On Monday, the presiding Utah state judge chose a new congressional map that will significantly change the Beehive State delegation.

Previously, Judge Dianna Gibson (D) had invalidated the current map drawn in 2021 because she maintained the legislature ignored criteria that voters approved through a ballot initiative. The Utah state Supreme Court then upheld her opinion.

The result included bringing forth maps that adhered to the missing criteria. Judge Gibson chose the version that created a Salt Lake City metro district that will assuredly elect a Democratic Representative and change the Utah delegation from a 4R-0D contingent to 3R-1D.

An alternative plan would have created two Republican seats and two politically marginal districts that both parties would have had a chance of winning. The judge’s decision, however, now gives former one-term Congressman Ben McAdams (D), among others, a chance at winning a Democratic primary, which would punch a ticket to the House of Representatives.

McAdams was elected to the House in 2018, defeating the now-deceased Congresswoman Mia Love (R). He then lost two years later to current Representative and former NFL football player Burgess Owens (R-Draper).

Kamala Harris would have carried the new 1st District by a 60-37 percent count according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The remaining three districts are all solidly Republican, featuring Trump victories with spreads from 29 to 41 points in 2024.

With the Democrats gaining a Utah seat, one of the current four Republican Representatives will be out after the 2026 election.

Of the three, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) appears to have the new northern 2nd District all to himself. Though his home is not in the 2nd, his original hometown of Ogden is one of the key population centers. The other is the city of Logan where Utah State University is located.

The new 3rd CD, which looks like a backwards letter “L”, is the seat that currently would house two Republican incumbents, two-term Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and freshman Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine). The district begins in the Provo area, moves south all the way to Arizona along the Colorado border, and then west to Nevada, the area that encompasses Rep. Maloy’s home turf.

Rep. Owens’ home is in the new 4th CD, which covers the west-central part of the state. This district contains a significant portion of Rep. Maloy’s constituency, which means she could also run in new District 4.

If all four Republican incumbents seek re-election, then the Maloy-Kennedy pairing is the most likely outcome. Rep. Maloy is the weakest politically in the delegation. She won the 2024 Republican primary by just 176 votes (50.1 percent) after barely securing 43 percent of the nominating convention vote. Not opting to circulate petitions, Maloy could have lost her seat in the convention had she slipped below the primary qualifying 40 percent delegate vote factor.

Rep. Kennedy is much stronger. He won the five-way Republican primary with almost 40 percent of the vote after demonstrating dominance in the nominating convention with 61.5 percent of the delegate vote.

Another scenario suggests that three-term Rep. Owens, who will be 75 years. old at the next election, could retire. If this were his decision, Rep. Maloy would likely run in the 4th District, thus leaving the 3rd CD to Kennedy.

Most of the delegation has little in the way of available campaign funds. The exception, Rep. Moore, holds almost $2.2 million in his campaign account, which compares very favorably against Rep. Kennedy’s $240,000, Rep. Maloy’s $201,000, and $167,000 for Rep. Owens. The fundraising figures are from the members’ Sept. 30 Federal Election Commission quarterly report and could have changed significantly since the totals were made public.

The new judicial map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 election. Since the state Supreme Court has already ruled earlier in the process, any lawsuit filed to overturn the map would have very little chance of succeeding.

Therefore, the bottom line on the just completed Utah redistricting process is a one seat Democratic gain.

A Democratic Sweep: Sherrill, Spanberger, Mamdani and More All Win

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

Elections

New York City voters elected Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as their next Mayor.

Last night’s election results yielded victories for Democrats across the board and it appears that high prices and the state of the economy are among the top reasons.

Of course, Democrats will argue that their attacks against President Trump compared to the election results is a rejection of the current administration, and the votes provide evidence for such a claim, but New Jersey and New York City are heavily Democratic enclaves, and the Washington, DC metropolitan area, including the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs have repeatedly proven itself as the most anti-Trump region in the country.

Therefore, within the partisan context, the election results should not be considered overly surprising.

New York City

As expected, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (Democratic/Working Families) was elected Mayor of New York City last night, capturing what looks to be a bare majority of the vote.

In the end, it appears the self-described Democratic Socialist outpaced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (Fight and Deliver Party), and Curtis Sliwa (Republican/Protect Animals Party) by a 50.4 – 41.6 – 7.1 percent margin. Polling did not fully capture Mamdani’s strength, nor Republican Sliwa’s weakness. In particular, the latter man polled approximately ten points better on average than his ultimate performance.

Certainly, barely going over the 50 percent mark gives Mamdani the mandate he needs to implement his more radical agenda, and certainly will have support to do so from the New York City Council. Much more to come in the ensuing weeks about this result and the new Mamdani Administration.

New Jersey

This gubernatorial election outcome was one of the most surprising decisions of last night as Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) scored what will likely be a 56-43 percent win over 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli despite polling that suggested the race was falling into the toss-up range.

The Sherrill victory represents the first time a political party has won three consecutive New Jersey gubernatorial elections since World War II.

With the Congresswoman’s victory, we will see another special congressional election, this time in her 11th District seat. Sherrill will resign from the House shortly before she assumes the Governorship in mid-January. One of her first duties will be to schedule the special election for voters to elect her successor. Already vying for positioning are former NJ-7 Congressman Tom Malinowski (D) and several local Democratic officials.

Virginia

Polling in this race was spot on, as survey research firms were not only consistently projecting an Abigail Spanberger victory, but they also saw the surge for the Democratic candidates in the final week of early voting and on Election Day. The combination carried not only Spanberger, but also Lt. Gov.-Elect Ghazala Hashmi and Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones to victory as part of the Democratic sweep.

The most surprising result was Jones defeating AG Miyares after the controversy broke several weeks ago about him fantasizing about killing his Republican opponents. Much analysis about the Attorney General’s result will be forthcoming over the next period of days when the actual results can be digested.

California Proposition 50

As expected, last night Golden State special election voters easily adopted the referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional map with a plan that Gov. Gavin Newsom had drawn. The redraw gerrymander could net the Democrats five seats and reduce the Republicans to four of the state’s 52 congressional districts.

Whether the map actually produces such results remain to be seen in the 2026 election. We can expect to see legal challenges to the entire process to soon be forthcoming but with a strong public vote, overturning the new map becomes very difficult.

TX-18

The jungle primary for the third of four special congressional elections to fill vacancies was held in Houston last night. The results will go to a runoff election that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule as soon as the Secretary of State verifies that no candidate received a majority of the vote.

The verification will come quickly, since Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) placed first and second with 32 and 25 percent of the vote, respectively. Therefore, no one came close to obtaining majority support.

The problem for whoever wins the runoff election, which will likely be in January, is that he or she will have to turn around and participate in a March 3, 2026, primary in another version of the 18th District and against incumbent Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) under the new Texas congressional map.

The Democrats are assured of keeping the 18th District seat to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), but the prize may be short-lived because the regular primary in the new district will be just weeks after securing victory.

Updates on Louisiana, Maryland,
& Ohio Redistricting Plans

Maryland Congressional Districts (Click on map to see interactive version on DavesRedistricting.org.)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

Redistricting

We saw redistricting moves occur in several states last week. Below is a recap of the action:

Louisiana

As the redistricting world awaits the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the Bayou State’s Governor and legislature passed legislation to move the state’s primary in anticipation of a ruling coming well after the first of next year.

Previously, the legislature and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) changed the Louisiana primary system to do away with their jungle primary held concurrently with the general election and an accompanying December runoff for those races where no candidate received majority support on the initial vote.

The new primary system returned to a partisan format scheduled for April 18, 2026, with a two-candidate runoff on May 30 for the races where no candidate received majority support.

The legislation passed earlier last week, now on its way to Gov. Landry for his signature, would move the initial primary date to May 16 with the associated runoff election on June 27.

Changing the primary will give the state more time to adjust their congressional map to adhere to whatever the Supreme Court eventually decides. The change also gives the candidates more time to campaign in the Senate primary where several contenders are mounting GOP nomination challenges against Sen. Bill Cassidy.

Maryland

It appears the Maryland legislature will not engage in another redistricting. According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) sent a letter to his colleagues saying that the Senate leadership “is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle congressional redistricting.”

Sen. Ferguson’s argument is that redrawing the current map “… could reopen the ability for someone to challenge” the present plan upon which the Democrats were able to routinely claim seven of the state’s eight congressional seats. Basically, the Senate President was explaining he was not going to risk a 7D-1R map for an uncertain attempt to add one more to the Democratic column.

Without the Senate’s participation, redistricting in Maryland will not occur. Thus, we see a break for the state’s lone Republican Congressman, Andy Harris (R-Cambridge), and the national Republican goal of maximizing their number of seats through mid-decade redistricting.

Ohio

The Buckeye State has both a complicated redistricting system and law. The process first starts with a commission of elected officials who authorize the drawing of maps, then votes upon and presents the approved plan to each house of the legislature. A map must receive three-fifths support in both houses to remain in place for the entire decade. Passing with a lesser amount means the plan can stand for only two elections. The Governor retains veto power over the completed legislative process.

Since the 2021 congressional plan failed to receive three-fifths support in both the state House of Representatives and Senate, it could only remain in place for the 2022 and 2024 elections. Therefore, Ohio must enact a new congressional plan before the 2026 election.

The bipartisan commission came to an agreement on a map last week, which will now be reported to the legislature. Understanding that the Republicans have strong majorities in both houses, but not three-fifths strength, the plan appears to give the GOP a chance to increase their delegation share by two seats.

The partisan percentage increase in both principal targets, however, appears to still make Democratic victories possible. The purpose of the compromise is to obtain enough bipartisan support to keep a new map intact for the decade’s remaining elections.

Statistics for the districts are not yet publicly available, but the new plan appears to make Districts 7, 9, and 13 slightly more Republican.

District 7 is already a Republican seat that two-term Congressman Max Miller (R-Rocky River) represents. The 9th is veteran Democratic Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur’s Toledo-anchored seat where her victory margin under the current boundaries fell to less than a percentage point in 2024. Finally, the politically marginal Akron anchored 13th CD is also made a bit redder. Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) has averaged just under 52 percent in two consecutive elections.

Both Reps. Kaptur and Sykes were going to be major 2026 Republican targets and this map will make them only slightly more vulnerable.

Republicans were also looking to target 1st District Congressman Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati), but this map keeps the district in the marginal category and likely makes the Congressman at least a slight favorite for re-election.

Much more will be known when the map statistics and voting history under the new boundaries become publicly available. Until then, the swing margins remain points of conjecture.

Indiana Joins Redistricting Battle

Current Indiana US House Congressional Districts map / Click on image to go to interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025

Redistricting

It appears we are seeing another state poised to join the mid-decade redistricting wars as an active participant.

Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) summoned the legislature back into session on Monday to work several issues and congressional redistricting is expected to be among them. It is now clear that Indiana will play a major role in how the new redistricting wave unfolds.

Developments favorable to Democrats in certain other states have now put selected Republican state leaders under further political pressure to attempt to neutralize those projected gains.

Indiana is one such place. Reports have been in the public domain for weeks saying that the White House, including Vice President J.D. Vance, who has met with Hoosier State legislative leaders on more than one occasion, have been overtly working to convince reluctant legislators to move forward. Gov. Braun has been supportive of the effort from the beginning.

Now, it appears we will see movement. The current Indiana congressional map features seven Republicans and two Democrats, but some believe the legislature could draw a 9R-0D map. Whether they go that far remains to be seen.

The Republicans’ obvious first target will be northwestern Indiana Congressman Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary). His 1st District has become more competitive as evidenced by his lower than expected 53 percent average in his last two elections. Additionally, the Republican who ran strongly against Rep. Mrvan in 2022, retired US Air Force officer Jennifer-Ruth Green, is reportedly open to running again in a more favorable district.

The state’s other Democratic member is Rep. Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis), who has served nine full terms and part of another. Carson’s current 7th District is solidly Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.9D – 29.0R) meaning the new map would have to break his district into segments in order to create another Republican seat.

If the map-drawers pursue such a course, the pie-shaped format might be overlayed into the Indianapolis region. The pie-shape concept brings contiguous districts into a metro area sometimes for partisan reasons, though many point out that such a draw gives a particular metropolitan area more representation and thus the region has a stronger presence in Congress.

Should the Indiana legislators adopt such a strategy, Districts 4 (Rep. Jim Baird-R), 5 (Rep. Victoria Spartz-R), and 6 (Rep. Jefferson Shreve-R), would likely be fundamentally reconfigured. It is probable all of these districts would come into Marion County (only Rep. Shreve’s District 6 does now) to take a piece of Indianapolis city and non-city precincts, thereby stretching the 7th CD into more rural Republican areas.

Polling is now suggesting the California redistricting referendum will pass on Nov. 4 (latest released California survey: Emerson College — Yes 57, No 37). Therefore, Democrats could be in position to gain five Golden State seats according to the party’s projections.

Additionally, the Utah courts have ordered a redraw of that state’s congressional map because of a ruling saying the legislature, when constructing the current plan in 2021, ignored map construction criteria that voters approved in the previous decade. As a result, Democrats are likely to gain one seat from the Beehive State.

Therefore, Democrats will potentially gain six seats in California and Utah, and possibly one more if Maryland decides to redistrict.

There is also public discussion occurring indicating that Virginia could join the redraw fray if former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D) wins the Governor’s race on Nov. 4. Even with a Democratic trifecta (Governor, state Senate, and state House of Delegates, which would occur with a Spanberger victory), redistricting would be no sure thing.

Virginia now has a hybrid redistricting commission composed of elected officials and citizens that have map drawing power. Therefore, the legislature will have to change the state’s redistricting structure in order to replace the current map. If they find a way, however, the Democrats could certainly make gains in the state since Republicans now hold five of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts.

Republicans would still come out ahead toward their goal of expanding the GOP Conference despite the aforementioned Democratic gains, however. It is probable that five seats would come from Texas, one on Missouri’s new map, one from North Carolina, all of which are complete, and further possible additions from Indiana as discussed, Florida, and Ohio (gaining two in each state). Louisiana and Alabama would likely follow suit if the Supreme Court eventually upholds the lower court ruling on the case currently before the justices.

North Carolina Redistricts

North Carolina redistricting map / Click on image to go to interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

Redistricting

The Tar Heel State of North Carolina has joined the redistricting wars as members in both the state House of Representatives and state Senate voted this week to adopt a new congressional map.

Republican legislative leaders saying the need to protect President Trump’s agenda and counter what states like California are doing to help Democrats became the impetus for the North Carolina legislators’ action of revising their state’s federal district plan.

Since North Carolina law gives only the legislature the power to redistrict, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein had no role in the process. Therefore, upon passing each chamber –the House followed the Senate’s lead and voted favorably yesterday – the new map became law.

The 2025 congressional plan shifts 10 counties between Reps. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District and Greg Murphy’s (R-Greenville) 3rd CD. The shift makes the 1st District — which President Trump carried in 2024 before the electorate switched back to Rep. Davis — more Republican while the overwhelmingly Republican 3rd District becomes more Democratic.

The Republicans’ political mark is clearly Rep. Davis. In November, the incumbent was re-elected with only a slim 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout. With such a small Democratic congressional win in a district that President Trump carried, and bordering a solidly Republican district to the south, made the 1st District an easy GOP target.

The 1st CD begins at the Virginia border and covers most of northeast North Carolina. To make it more Republican, the map drawers drove the district further south along the coast to annex additional GOP counties. This forced Rep. Murphy’s 3rd CD to move west and further inland. The remaining dozen Tar Heel congressional districts remain untouched.

The changing counties transform the 1st from one where President Trump defeated Kamala Harris 51-48 percent, into a seat where the electorate would have posted a 55-44 percent Republican margin. Conversely, the Trump percentage in District 3 would recede from 57.9 to 53.5. While Rep. Murphy’s district clearly becomes more competitive, he will still have enough of a partisan margin to win comfortably in a region that is likely to grow more Republican as the decade progresses.

Rep. Davis took to social media, according to the Down Ballot political blog reporters, to indicate that he would seriously consider remaining in the District 1 race even though his hometown of Snow Hill in Greene County would move to CD-3.

The Congressman said, “as we look at new congressional districts, I am considering every option, drawing on my local roots, experience in the military, and commitment to education,” in deciding what political move to make. Davis’ problem is there are no other available offices for which he can compete in 2026.

Though North Carolina has a dozen statewide offices, only one, Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R) open seat, is on the ballot next year. Since Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is already in that race and a consensus candidate, Davis has virtually no other political option than to run for the US House in a more difficult district.

With Buckhout accepting a job in Washington with the Trump Administration, she will not return for a 2026 rematch. In the race are Rocky Mount Mayor and former congressional candidate Sandy Roberson and state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck).

Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse (R) recently announced his congressional candidacy, but Lenoir County moves to the 3rd District under the new redistricting plan. It is unclear whether Rouse will continue now that his home political base is no longer in the 1st District.

Redistricting is nothing new in North Carolina. In the previous decade, the maps kept changing almost every election cycle. The reason was the dispute between the Republican legislature and the Democratic state Supreme Court. The preponderance of members in each body held different redistricting legal opinions. When the Republicans captured the court majority in the 2022 election, a unified redistricting approach was adopted.

We can expect lawsuits to be filed over the new map, but the chances of overturning the plan clearly drawn for partisan and not racial reasons means the 2025 version will very likely be the footprint upon which the candidates will run next year.